3/3

Real madrid and Ajax are the same price as Arsenal ( 5-0) were last night and should replicate the scorelines. Both have strong arguments for backing. Real because they have a 100% home record, beat Malaga 4-1 at malaga, and Mourinho has not lost in the league in 8 years.

Ajax, because they are quite simply dominant in head to heads, scoring 3,4,5 with regularity.

elsewhere the 210 Southwell now must enter calculations as a 3 horse race for 2 places - any selection has a 66% chance of placing.I defaulted to One Pursuit simply because he is the favourite. But while the original market leader was in the betting, the 3 horses were between 5/1 -8/1 , i.e. closely matched.

Pure probability this one.

The 2 jumps races see strong candidates with a hint that Merehead might be worth risking at 1.34 instead of romulus d'artaix in the 220 Taunton.

I think, though, at the odds, Shaktar are the ones to be on today - at around 1.26 to win currently ( take Betfair SP if illiquid) , they beat Sevastapol 5-0 last time out and beat Roma away 3-2 recently ( even scoring one of Roma's matches).

I acknowledge this is the start of the new season in Ukraine, but see Shaktar as being fitter and more ready after their europa league jaunts.

*****ONE A DAY - 5pm 0 Sevastapol v Shaktar - back Shaktar in the match odds at 1.25*****

There are plenty of bets which, on another day, would be one a days.

I am thinking about the Cockney Mackem, 210 Southwell ( 3 horses and 2 places), Ajax, Real madrid.

Super Directa won with a great front running performance. Plenty of others yesterday to consider football wise with Villareal, Benfica ( 46th match without a draw and 18th win on the trot) and Man City after the Villa team news announced. Again, tough to relay this kind of info to you in order to act upon it.

5pm - Sevastopol v Shakhtar - 1.25 away - Ukrainian league match. 5-0 and 6-1 last 2 head to heads ( one from 2006 and the other from 2010) tells us that Sevastapol must be newcomers to the top flight, and are coming up against an established Ukrainian powerhouse.

Like a lot of eastern european leagues and leagues in places that would freeze your bits, this is a return to domestic action after a Winter Break.

Shaktar have been kept busy and will be buoyant after a 3-2 away win over AS roma in the Europa League. Roma's first goal was an own goal, and the game was wrapped up by halftime. So Shaktar should be chomping at the bit. Other form has been in club friendlies so I am not sure what to make of it as the manager may have been squad rotating?

Sevastapol have won their last 3 but those were club friendlies.

It is always difficult to gauge form after a break but I see in that 3-2 win over AS Roma, enough to go with Shaktar here?

6pm - Biel v FC Basel - 1.36 away3-1 to Basel in both 2009 head to heads and , although 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 last 3 matches might signal a dearth of goals from Basel, they have been playing sides far superior to Biel I would suspect.

3-1, 4-1, 5-0, 5-3, 2-3 - all last 5 matches and all losses for Biel - the last 2 were in the league and the 3 previous were club friendlies ( I thought club friendlies were meant to instil confidence not get mullered!!). Swiss Cup, so take a punt or leave these Cup matches alone.

7pm - Celta Vigo v Huesca - 1.53 home - Spanish 2nd tier and worth investigating as www.soccerstats.com covers it.

Top v 15th and this is a tight head of the league.Celta are 1 point ahead and importantly 1 game in hand. Surely they would want to consolidate and open up a gap , especially at home against 15th in the league.

This is one of those where the head to heads are inconclusive and tell us that, on their day, Huesca could win this.

0-0, 0-1( Huesca away win), 1-1, 0-1 ( Huesca away win), 1-2 ( Celta Vigo away win) in recent head to heads is tight enough with all bar 1 match an under 2.5 goals affair.

No defeat in 14 for Celta so immediately our options should be home win/draw ( or better still,simply lay Huesca)

Celta have scored in all of their home matches this season. A good starting point for a 1.53 shot ( over 1.5 signals a potential fight for victory)

WWWDWW latest at home for Celta. Celta have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 home and away.

Against top 10 sides at home, Celta struggle - infact they have not won one match against top 10 at home. But against those 11th -22nd, it is a 100% record of 8/8 home wins. Slight concern that the scorelines against 17th,18th and 19th were 1-0's.

At home, Celta have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches, which is an impressive stat.

Huesca have only played 2 of the top 5 away from home, and lost 4-0 and 3-1, although the 1,53 quote for Celta does not really reflect a similar scoreline this evening. it does show, though, some vulnerability against the elite in this league.

DDWLDD away for Huesca recently ( put into context though - other than top 5 sides)

10 of Huesca's last 11 matches have been under 2.5 goals. They had a 10 match under 2.5 goal run which ended in their last match, a 4-1 home win over raya vallecano.

25% of Huesca's away matches have been over 2.5 goals, so this does not really relay an away beating by 3 or 4 goals .

Only 2 losses in last 15 is good form for Huesca.

The ideal here looks like an eventual Celta win, but after a long period , given Huesca's recent unders matches.

745pm - Ajax v Waalwijk - 1.17 home - backed up by head to heads , with scorelines of ( most recent last) 4-2, 5-0, 2-2, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 - emphatic Ajax wins with little countering from Waalwijk.

Beware! Ajax were priced this short recently against VVV Venlo and only managed a 1-0 win. A sign of something not quite right since the absence of the incomparible Suarez?

That was an 11th minute goal so would have helped goal backers, but , against 10 men Venlo in the 2nd half, Ajax could not add any more which is a slight concern as this match was only played on 20th February. Since that match, they have had a 0-0 with PSV, and honestly, this was not unforeseen ( if you had read my research on that match)

6 wins on the trot for Ajax in the Cup, league and Europa League should continue this evening.

A 1-1 draw against the mighty Achilles 29 ( who the feck are they? - exactly!!!) in the last round of the Cup away does not augur well for Waalwijk today.

2 wins and a loss away in Division 2 for Waalwijk latest is not too impressive ( almere City and Telstar are strugglers)

You are actually getting a good deal at Betfair with the 1.17 - it is 1.10 generally with European bookies. back the 1.17 now and it may shorten as the day progresses.

9pm - Real Madrid v Malaga - 1.17 home - you know the drill by now - Real under Mourinho will not lose at home ( if his 8 year record is any indication) - this means we have the home win ( which the market is keen on) or the draw. 2 outcomes.

This is the same price as Arsenal v Leyton Orient ( 5-0 to Arsenal) and the Arsenal match reflects the ideal scoreline from such a short price.

I normally go for enhanced bets here ( Halftime/fulltime or over 3.5 goals to trade) but acknowledge that real Madrid, along with celtic away, are known as inconsistent.

10 points behind Barca with a game in hand. Barca won last night. A tight match with Valencia and a Messi winner.

100% record at home. Have not played the bottom 4 at home,but 4-1 away at Malaga kind of justifies the 1.17 quote.

BUT, only 1 of Real's last 7 matches has been over 2.5 goals.

Let me recount Real's scorelines recently at home to relay the inconsistency.

1-0, 4-2, 1-0, 4-1, 2-0 . One week scoring 4+, the next struggling to a 1-0

Real tend to win the head to heads at Real and struggle ( bar last away H2H) at Malaga.

Real have scored in all home matches this season. It's 50/50 with over 2.5 goals. 12 wins on the trot at home.

Only 7 conceded in the first half for Real and 25 scored. An overriding reliance on Ronaldo is a concern at home. He has scored 17, with next best Higuan out ( a real miss) and couldn't-hit-a-Spanish-cow's-arse-with-a-banjo- Benzema next.

malaga away have won only 3 and they are against teams 11th and lower in the league.

Their struggles are clear away to the top 5.

Real average 3.08 goals at home and Malaga concede an average of 2.08 away. This does tie in with the 1.17 quote.

As does malaga's performances against top 5 at home and away.

barcelona home

Barcelona Away - 4-1 loss

Real Madrid home - 4-1 loss

Real Madrid away - being played today

Valencia Home - 3-1 loss

valencia away - 4-3 loss

Villareal Home - 3-2 loss

Villareal away - 1-1 draw

as you can see, the 1-1 draw was very anomolous. And in general, against the top 4, Malaga concede 4 which coincidentally is what the 1.17 quote is telling us.

WLLDD recently away included away losses to Real and valencia, and the last away draw was 1-1 v Villareal coincidentally.

This forms part of a sequence of good performances home and away for malaga - DDDW in their last 4. THis includes draws against 7th placed Sevilla and 4th placed Villareal.

While Madrid are scoring 25 in the first half, Malaga conceded 27 goals.

We know I think what the probable result is don't we? It should be a win for Real , scoring a minimum of 3 goals, but heaven forefend any injuries to Ronaldo.

1115pm - Gremio v Leon de Huanuco - 1.24home - Copa Libertadores so if you fancy researching this one, better to wait til nearer 11pm .

230 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Cockney Mackem, 4/1 Flichity, 6/1 Furrows, 15/2 Glendue, 17/2 Arthur´s Pass, 14/1Ballagio, 16/1 Surf And Turf, 20/1 Otis Tarda, 50/1 Automaticman, 50/1 Roses Legend, 66/1 Bahr Nothing, 66/1 Dennis Doyle, 66/1Lilac Belle, 66/1 Thorney Rose, 100/1 Summer De Baune.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for THE COCKNEY MACKEM, who is entitled to clear preference on his latest improved second to a promising sort in a C&D maiden, when he was well ahead of the rest. Glendue and Arthur's Pass may fill the places. [Mel Cullinan]

The betting market is clear - 4/6 - - - - 7/1 for the Cockney Macken for Paddy Brennan and Twiston-Davies.

300 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Phidippides, 11/8 Hector´s Choice, 4/1 Maraafeq, 28/1 Norwich Well, 40/1 The Humbel Monk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PHIDIPPIDES and Hector's Choice stand out. Choosing between them isn't easy but in the hope that Phidippides is back on song after a below-par run last time (had excuses), he may just have a touch too much class for his rival. [Mel Cullinan]

A novices chase should be between 3 horses for the 2 places.

500 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sea Wall, 3/1 Martha´s Kinsman, 10/1 Silver Story, 16/1 Blaze Ahead, 16/1 Mad Victor, 16/1 Posh Dude, 20/1 The General Lee, 25/1 No Virtue, 50/1 Give Me Love.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No stars among those with a mainly pointing background and SEA WALL and Martha's Kinsman, who have shown fair handicap form in their time, are taken to dominate.[Frank Carter]

3 under 14/1 in this hunters chase and Sea Wall is a 190 day course and distance winner.

530 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Little Fritz, 6/1 Rowlestone Lad, 7/1 Midnight King, 8/1 Milaneen, 9/1 Set In Her Ways, 12/1Parsnip Pete, 12/1 Sleeping Du Granit, 25/1 Edieskaia, 33/1 Seventh Hussar, 33/1 Skarloey, 50/1 Blue Bell House, 200/1 John The Glass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary bumper by all appearances and it is hard to get away from Nicky Henderson's newcomerLITTLE FRITZ given the stable's excellent record in bumpers. Rowlestone Lad looks the pick of those with form.[Frank Carter]

You all know my feelings now on late-in-the-afternoon maidens and bumpers. Best to wait til nearer the off. At present though, Little Fritz is odds on here , which is eyecatching as he is a newcomer.

210 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Reachforthebucks, 5/1 One Pursuit, 6/1 Aloneinthestreet, 7/1 Unwrapit, 50/1 Littlepromisedland.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REACHFORTHEBUCKS is 12lb higher than when completing his hat-trick last week but has done everything asked of him with plenty in hand and is taken to continue the winning spree. One Pursuit, the least exposed of his rivals, may offer most resistance.[Frank Carter]

4 horses now and 2 places. Reachforthebucks will lose eventually as the weight catches up to this multiple handicap winner. We will make our money when we can determine when the horse will lose.

510 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Postman, 5/1 Nolecce, 6/1 General Tufto, 6/1 Jack Dawkins, 7/1 Bentley, 8/1 Eastern Hills, 9/1 Thrust Control, 14/1 Vito Volterra.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POSTMAN has two ways of running but he's ahead of the handicapper and will take some beating if building on last week's C&D second when in front of Nolecce and Eastern Hills.[Paul Johnson]

Readers of my eletter will recognise this horse. He had thousands and thousands waiting to back him on Betfair on his last run, and I rather suspect that was the race he was meant to win at around 9/1. 2nd place there rewarded each way support but he was expected to win.

Now, is this compensation time today for Postman's connections. 11/4 currently is a decent price but does not instil an extreme confidence.

8 runners and 3 places is an ideal place only race.

220 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Romulus D´artaix, 5/2 Merehead, 4/1 Henry King, 14/1 Royal Riviera, 16/1 Dolores Ortiz, 16/1 How´s My Friend, 16/1 Spirit Of Barbados, 20/1 Barton Cliche, 25/1 Homer Run, 40/1 Boo Boo Booyakasha, 50/1 Generous Bob, 66/1Nik Nak Too, 100/1 Golden King, 200/1 Semelay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Merehead could be a threat if settling better this time but ROMULUS D'ARTAIX (nap), who went agonisingly close in a fair race on his hurdling debut, has been found a good opportunity to go one better.[Paul Johnson]

3 under 20/1 here and Romulus is the market leader. Only had the one hurdles run so always a concern that he is a work in progress but for Thornton/King , he should have been schooled well.

450 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Chesnut Annie, 9/4 Whizzaar, 11/2 Mustangsallyrally, 11/1 Liberty Rock, 16/1 Different Trades, 40/1 Gershwinner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Prolific winning pointer CHESNUT ANNIE gained one of her two rules wins over C&D back in April 2008 and, in receipt of a handy weight concession from main rival Whizzaar, can supplement those gains. [Mel Cullinan]

3 under 20/1 - a case of trusting hunting chases.

740 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Falmouth Bay, 3/1 Amwell Pinot, 3/1 Angelic Upstart, 10/1 Coral Moon, 10/1 Double Duchess, 12/1Silly Billy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FALMOUTH BAY was backed ahead of his successful debut here around a month ago and is taken to progress past the reliable Amwell Pinot and Angelic Upstart, wholl need to settle better.[Graham Wheldon]

Fanning/Johnston fav now odds on, and this is not a maiden so there should be no dark horses here.

Obviously, a look at the market nearer to 740pm than midday will give us a clearer picture.

810 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Desert Shine, 5/1 Misere, 6/1 Spirit Of Grace, 6/1 Step And Fetch, 16/1 Shikra, 25/1 Mini´s Destination, 25/1 Symphonic Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newcomer Step And Fetch is worth a look but otherwise DESERT SHINE sets the standard and is clearly the one to beat.[Graham Wheldon]S

A beaten favourite 143 days ago and all weather debut, as well as only 2 places, makes Desert Shine a questionable selection.

840 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Stoneacre Gareth, 5/1 Bold Bomber, 6/1 Guildenstern, 8/1 Senor Tommie, 12/1 Rio Sands, 16/1Avoncreek, 16/1 Cocktail Party, 20/1 Silca Meydan, 50/1 Boxer Shorts, 50/1 Frill A Minute, 50/1 Marron Flore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around STONEACRE GARETH (nap) and whether he's able to reproduce last Thursday's Kempton effort on his second quick run back following a long layoff. If so he'll surely win again.[Graham Wheldon]

I think I mentioned Stoneacre gareth last time. Here he is a strong price gapper in a Class 7 0-50 handicap. 4/7 - - - - -- 9/1 is compelling price gap, but the race grade is step up from Pedigree Chum and the Glue factory.

We go from class 7 donkey derby to listed and group races in Meydan

305 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Reem, 9/4 Bridgefield, 7/2 Ahlaain, 10/1 Abjer, 10/1 Borug, 20/1 Paulinho, 20/1 Sonoran Sands, 33/1Energia Carioca, 66/1 Air Of Grace, 66/1 Amica.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The middle leg of the UAE Triple Crown but, as with the UAE 2000 Guineas, this is a race lacking in quality.Reem has (jointly) the highest rating of these and she's a player taking on the boys back on Tapeta after a fine run in the Balanchine. However she's unlikely to be much in the way of a price and an each-way chance is taken with Derby entry BORUG who wasn't seen to best effect dropped to 7f on his UAE debut last time and has plenty to find strictly on official ratings but he has won his only start on synthetics and his run-style and everything about his pedigree suggests that he'll relish the step up to this trip. [Richard Young]

5 under 10/1 here and Reem may be worth a chance at a current 6/4

455 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mendip, 6/1 Crowded House, 10/1 Our Giant, 10/1 Snaafy, 14/1 Cat Junior, 14/1 Sangaree, 20/1Banna Boirche, 25/1 Famous Warrior, 25/1 Zafeen Speed, 33/1 As De Trebol, 66/1 Prince Shaun, 66/1 Verde-mar, 100/1 Falcativ, 100/1 Kinky Afro.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around Mendip, who showed he retains all his ability and in doing so created a favourable impression (despite again proving a handful at the start and despite flashing his tail when asked to quicken) when winning the first leg of the Maktoum Challenge in January. His only defeat on synthetics came over further at the hands of Musir (big chance later on card) in last year's UAE Derby and he's the likeliest winner. However the price is the main drawback and, at much bigger odds, the suggestion is an each-way wager on the same yard's SANGAREE, a multiple winner on synthetics and Grade 1 placed in the US and who shaped well in a race that wasn't run to suit over this C&D last time. [Richard Young]

Big price gapper here has Dettori onboard.5/6 - - - - 13/2 - faith in Mendip in such a high quality big field race.

645 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Presvis, 7/2 Poet´s Voice, 5/1 Al Shemali, 5/1 Wigmore Hall, 10/1 Hearts Of Fire, 10/1 Steele Tango, 20/1 Lancelot, 20/1 Shakespearean, 25/1 Le Drakkar, 33/1 Ferneley, 33/1 Trois Rois, 66/1 Kavango.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good-quality field and it will be interesting to see if Shakespearean attempts to set a decent gallop for free-going stable-mate Poet's Voice, who was soundly beaten after failing to settle in a moderately run Champion Stakes when last seen in autumn. Last year's Dubai Duty Free winner Al Shemali has strong claims back on turf and his proven fitness gives him the edge over UAE debutant Wigmore Hall. However the one to be on is last year's winner PRESVIS, whose only turf defeats in Dubai have been in the last two runnings of the Duty Free and who shaped as though retaining all his ability when comprehensively outpointing previous winner and reliable yardstick Steele Tango in the Al Rashidiya on his reappearance. [Richard Young]

presvis is one of only 2 under 10/1 in the live betting market and , with the assistance of Ryan Moore, must be considered?

SHORTLIST
5pm - Sevastopol v Shakhtar - 1.25 away - the risk is that this is the start of the Ukrainian league and most recent form has been club friendlies. But what may make Shaktar backable is their 3-2 win away at Roma in the Europa League which must indicate they are in good nick.

6pm - Biel v FC Basel - 1.36 away - not the most compelling of recent results for Basel but their opponents have been royally spanked in club and league matches lately. Biel's recent matches have been characterised overwhelmingly by goals. Back over 2.5 goals ? Faith in a weak defense as Basel's last 3 matches were unders.

7pm - Celta Vigo v Huesca - 1.53 home - not technically a must win for Celta Vigo as they have a game in hand and are a point infront, but it is a must win really isn't it , if the head of the league is so tight.

Huesca are a tight outfit it would seem , 25% of their away matches only overs.

But Huesca have been vulnerable to top 5 sides away. The case tonight?

745pm - Ajax v Waalwijk - 1.17 home - head to heads really are emphatic and back up the 1.17 quote ( remember Arsenal were this price last night and won 5-0)

Slight niggle that Ajax were this price against VVV venlo and only won 1-0

9pm - Real Madrid v Malaga - 1.17 home - I am not sure I would trust real Madrid to score the kind of goals that go with a 1.17 scoreline given their recent poor under 2.5 goals record. One redeeming characteristic of Malaga is their awful record against top 4 sides home and away. Bar the 1-1 draw with Villareal, they have conceded 3 and 4.

230 LUDLOW - The Cockney mackem is quite a price gapper, 1.7 to win and 1.16 to place.

210 SOUTHWELL - favourite a non runner now making this a 3 horse race for 2 places. Make a choice, get yer prayer mat out, and hope your horse does not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.

One Pursuit is the favourite here at around 1.22 to place and this is a wonderful probability chance here. We would be unlucky to get the favourite beaten by 2 in a 3 horse race.

I do acknowledge that the 3 remaining seem closely matched.

220 TAUNTON - should involve the 4 under 33/1 here ( or even the 3 under 14/1) which makes Romulus D'artaix interesting at 1.16 to place, and Paul Nicholl's Merehead the value at 1.35 to place.

840 WOLVES - Stoneacre Gareth is a huge price gapper, but do we trust class 7 0-50 rated donkey derbies?

455 MEYDAN - Mendip is a big price gapper in a group 3 and has the able assistance of Dettori. Chance the place? Illiquid market at present.

645 MEYDAN - I just get a feeling Presvis will give a solid performance under the excellent Ryan Moore. Would need to view the market nearer the off.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

5pm - Sevastopol v Shakhtar - 1.25 away - might just be worth risking Shaktar here given their 5-0 win over Sevastapol last time out and their 3-2 away win over Roma in the Europa League. A risk because this is the first match of a new season and an away match, but I think momentum is with Shaktar and the odds are relatively big compared to other selections today.

745pm - Ajax v Waalwijk - 1.17 home - Dutch Up might see a weakened Ajax side? The head to heads are so compelling and consistently see Ajax dominating by the kind of scoreline that 1.17 indicates. 1.34 over 2.5 goals is interesting and includes both sides - perhaps a tradable bet only though.

9pm - Real Madrid v Malaga - 1.17 home - I am still smarting from the away draw v Almeria.Just when you think Real Madrid are solid betting propositions, they throw in a stinker.

Mourinho's home record, though, makes a compelling case for backing Real Madrid ( his home record in the league means they should not lead and the draw is the only alternative)

230 LUDLOW - a pity there is not an acca facility on Betfair for place only bets as today might be a good day. The Cockney macken 1.16 to place here should with a clear round.

210 SOUTHWELL - this is a 3 horse race for 2 places .Superb probability. One Pursuit is 1.2 to place and is my default selection for no other reason than that he is the favourite in the win and place markets.

220 TAUNTON - only 4 under 33/1here - Romulus D'artaix is favourite and 1.16 to place. Chance Merehead today for Nicholls as 2nd fav at 1.34 to place?

645 MEYDAN - Presvis stands out for me today but I am not aware of his place only price and would need to look nearer the off.