14/3

A messy weekend with Saturday all but written off and an attempt to insure Sunday's early bet going awry with a 1-1. Bari were 70 and reached a low of 3.35 -very tradable - but this is not a trading service!
The late choice Fenerbahce won easily .

Cork All Star looks standout today horse racing wise and should place with ease, barring accidents, and in the evening unbeaten Porto head to Leiria who they have scored 3,4,3,4,5 in their last 5 head to heads. This part of the season can bring surprises ( yesterday's are listed in the message) but leirira have not scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, are on a 4 match home losing sequence, against an unbeaten Porto with 6 clean sheets on the trot and a 4 match winning streak.

I will chance it this evening, knowing full well that a draw is a possibility ( maybe cover the 1-1?_

*****ONE A DAY 815pm - Back Porto in the match odds at 1.41***** Remember this is tradable. Porto have scored first in 90.9% of their matches this season.


815pm - Leiria v Porto - 1.41 away - amazingly Benfica ended their run of 48 matches without a draw last night. It was going to happen. Porto have scored 3,4,3,4,5 in their last 5 head to heads.
Porto are 10 points clear with a game in hand , my concern is complacency?
1st v 8th
LEIRIA RECENT HOME FORM - 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats. - LDWWDWLD - only 2 losses and a lot of niggly draws for potential Porto backers. At home to the top 5, it is pretty clear Leiria struggle when the big boys visit.
1) playing Porto today
2) 3-0 loss to Benfica
3) 2-1 loss to Sporting
4) 0-0 draw with P Ferreira
5) 1-0 loss to Guimaraes

Have not won against the top 5 at home. Enough to oppose Leiria.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLLDLWLLD - a closer look and it's only one win in their last 8 matches. Last 4 scorelines were 1-0 ( won), 1-0(loss), 1-0(loss) and 0-0. Tight matches But the last 4 matches at home are 3-0 loss, 3-0 loss, 2-0 loss, 1-0 loss. The solidity in defensive seems to be at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 55% of home matches over 2.5 goals - inconclusive.
Last 6 matches under 2.5 goals. Kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 8 matches.leiria have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

STREAKS - no draw in 10 matches at home - 4 match losing sequence at home - 4 home matches without a goal scored.
Only 1 win in last 8 for Leiria.

PORTO RECENT AWAY FORM - 8 wins , 2 draws and no defeats away from home.DWDWWWW 3,1,2,3 scored in last 4 away wins by Porto.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - 10 match winning streak.
GOAL TRENDS - Porto have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches ( all wins of course) - Porto have scored in every match this season.
only 1 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals ( 2 matches were 2-0's)
away they score on average 1.7 per match and concede only 0.2. Knowing what we know about Leiria's recent lack of goals, they look ripe for the plucking today by Porto.

STREAKS - 22 matches without defeat, 10 matches without a draw, ( no draw in 10 for Leiria as well) , no draw in 4 away matches, 4 match winning streak away.
Porto have only conceded 2 goals in the first half and 5 goals only in the 2nd half, all in the last half hour.
Porto score first in 90.9% of their matches and lead in 77% of their matches.The opponents lead at half time in only 4.5% of matches.

NOTE - this looks obvious for Porto doesn't it. Benfica showed us yesterday that streaks and sequences end eventually ( 18 wins on the trot ended recently and 48 without a draw ended yesterday)
Results yesterday recount that we are in silly season - 1-1Milan v Bari ( 1.22 home), 1-1 Sevilla v barca ( 1.44 away), Benfica v Portimonense 1-1 ( Benfica 1.22 home)
Slight concern with Porto and a degree of complacency. Game in hand and 10 points ahead.
But it all looks primed for a 1-0, 2-0 away scoreline if going with the form but March is a killer month for football betting ( killer as in bad, not good!)

210 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Palawi, 9/2 Sidney Melbourne, 5/1 Grams And Ounces, 10/1 Youm Jamil, 16/1 Zambuka, 50/1 Midnight Molly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Palawi is the obvious one with his experience but SIDNEY MELBOURNE was every bit as good as him on the Flat and if finding some fluency he could be a big threat in receipt of weight.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4/9 now this Palawi, a 22 day distance winner.

440 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Cork All Star, 5/1 Openditch, 14/1 May Be Possible, 14/1 Pouilly, 16/1 Moscow Court, 25/1 No Virtue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections of CORK ALL STAR are already eyeing bigger prizes and anything but a comprehensive victory will go down as disappointing.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Cork all star has been winning well.

220 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Balerina, 5/1 Shesells Seashells, 11/2 Napoleons Mistress, 13/2 Mavalenta, 17/2 Shianda, 9/1 Sentosa, 14/1 Clyffe Top, 40/1 Dane Cottage, 50/1 Knight Blaze, 66/1 Racey Lacey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALERINA (nap) sets a clear, quite useful standard on her recent handicap form and is readily preferred. Shesells Seashells may be next best, ahead of another filly making her hurdles debut in Napoleons Mistress.[Mel Cullinan]

No day off for Choc before Cheltenham and he rides the price gapper and clear favourite here. 2nd and 3rd favs could be the dark horses with 175 and 530 days off.

SHORTLIST

815pm - Leiria v Porto - 1.41 away - the run in is always a difficult time for footy punters. The negatives for me? Possible complacency.

Positives - Porto have scored 3,4,3,4,5 against Leiria in last 5 head to heads. Leiria have lost 3 and drawn 1 against top 5 at home so Porto should win. 4 match losing sequence at home for leiria.

Porto unbeaten away from home. 3,1,2,3 scored in last 4 away wins.

Porto concede 0.2 away from home on average. Clean sheet in last 6 for Porto means if they score they should win. Leiria have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

negatives? 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 in last 3 for Leiria. They can keep it tight. Porto have an upcoming match against CSKA but they hold a 3-0 lead without conceding an away goal.

The time of the year is now producing unexpected results. Yesterday's rafts of 1-1's could be accounted for with an insurance bet.

Porto clean sheet 1.96 is very tempting indeed this evening . We could cover the 1-0, 1-1, 1-2 scorelines which, to win, say, a £100 stake it could cost us £32, making the bet around a 1.65 bet.

Getting a bit complicated though.

210 STRATFORD - 1.16 to place for Palawi tells us it is only 2 places.

3 under 16/1 means this is a reasonable probability race. 2nd and 1st in only 2 hurdles races is promising. No win alas for a nose 3rd in these types of place only markets.

440 STRATFORD - comeback run after 2 years off was impressive enough for Cork All Star and he is an obvious stand out here. 1.35 win, 1.15 place - hunter chase but looks a good jumper. Needs a clear round of course.

220 TAUNTON - 1.14 for Balerina is the shortest price of the day. enough of a reason to back.Choc Thornton eye catching given that Cheltenham starts tomorrow.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

815pm - Leiria v Porto - 1.41 away - if we acknowledge that at this time of the year, surprises do occur ( yesterday's roll call Barca 1-1, Benfica 1-1, AC Milan 1-1 when all short priced ( shorter than Porto)) Porto look standout here against Leiria team who have not scored in 4 of their last 5 matches against a side who have scored in every match this season.

440 STRATFORD - Cork All Star looks truly standout from the 3 horses today in a quiet day pre Cheltenham.

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