Sunday 27 March 2011

27/3

The flat begins at Leopardstown and is best watched to see how the market and those backed in the market have run. After all, it is only really the market we have to go on this early on.
Football wise, and Brazil should beat Scotland with ease. A closer look at their match against Spain and we note Spain were 2-0 up, and scored one of Scotland's goals.
This is a friendly and of course the foot is off the gas. No Robinho for Brazil and likely to be a much changed side tonight. They should still win but are not worth risking.
The rest of the football is difficult

*****ONE A DAY - 210 HEXHAM - FLINTY BAY TO PLACE ONLY***** - try to get 1.14 but if not then Betfair SP.
I hope the front 2 dominate this and do not fall



The "insurance" on the 0-0 turned a 1.46 bet into a 1.38 bet but it was job done yesterday at a reasonable price.

3pm - Brazil v Scotland - 1.38 home - well we all know about the risks inherent in all friendlies - you should have been made aware of that with Estonia beating a strong Uruguay side recently. So you enter this match with the risks known. Looks all over a Brazil win of course because Scotland are dire. Could be a Brazil side featuring only the European based players? This is taking place at the Emirates Stadium in London and Brazil are designated home team as they are the draw.
Brazil have lost their last 2 friendlies 1-0 which perhaps tells you their mentality as football's Harlem Globetrotters.
Scotland ran Spain close recently 2-3 but Spain were 2-0 up, and one of Scotland's goals was an own goal so 2-3 is a little flattering to the Scots.

4pm -
Diyarbakirspor v Samsunspor - 1.36 away - Diy have only won one of their last 12 and Samsun have only lost one of their last 12. 2010 head to heads in favour of Samsun. Turkish 2nd division and I know nothing about that division.
Diy's last 2 matches have seen them concede 4 goals in each match and Samsun's recent form reads WWDWW

4pm -
Huddersfield v Notts Co - 1.81 home - I know notts county well having done the research last week and , off the top of my head, it is now 5 1-0 matches on the trot for Notts County, against 2nd in the league today.
2nd v 18th
HEAD TO HEADS - from 2001 to 2003 and only one recent head to head in 2010 saw the corresponding fixture end with a 3-0 Huddersfield win.
HUDD RECENT HOME FORM - LWWDWDDWD - unbeaten at home in 8 matches - 10 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats in total at home.
All home losses have been 1-0's against 12th, 13th and 22nd in the league. If you fancy Huddersfield today then, why not take out an insurance bet on the 1-0 to Notts County ( bearing in mind, need I remind you, that County's last 5 matches have all been 1-0's)
3 of Hudd's last 4 home draws have been 0-0's which may be coincidence or maybe a sign of something else
HUDD RECENT FORM OVERALL - unbeaten in 17 matches - WWDDDDWDWWWD -


BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Breeze With Ease, 5/1 Spring Wine, 7/1 Fascinating Paddy, 8/1 Magnetic Force, 10/1 Fitzgutentyte, 10/1 Laffan Island, 10/1 Lannigans Tower, 16/1 Lisagore Lady, 16/1 Royale Knight, 16/1 Sierra Lady, 16/1 Symphonist, 25/1 Watch Yer Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is the dregs but something has to win. Perhaps FITZGUTENTYTE is the answer, her trainer recently among the winners. She is almost certainly more talented than her mark of 82 would imply. [Johnny Ward]

"This is the dregs" hardly inspires confidence - Breeze with ease - Ruby Walsh onboard and a price gaper evens - - - - 6/1


450 DOWNPATRICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Erins Stage, 13/8 Bless N´ject, 14/1 Oh So Gogo, 14/1 Srevas, 14/1 Wither Hills, 16/1 Hidden Future, 16/1 Legal High, 16/1 Seaneen Mac Ri, 20/1 Secret Hill, 25/1 Saint Nazaire, 25/1 Six Senses, 33/1 Better Back Bob, 33/1 Buttonhole Rose, 33/1 Mattara, 50/1 Girlie´sdream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Impossible to recommend anything with confidence here and the token pick is BLESS N'JECT, whose trainer has been having another excellent campaign. [Johnny Ward]

Only 2 under 10/1 here but a bumper and better to visit nearer race time.

210 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Flinty Bay, 9/4 Vivaldi, 10/1 Tower, 33/1 Bunratty, 33/1 Endeavor, 33/1 Funky Munky, 33/1 Kensix Star, 50/1 Ursus, 66/1 Daredevil Dan, 66/1 Roslin Moss, 100/1 Overpriced, 100/1 Tears From Heaven, 250/1 Fred Grass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In an uncompetitive novice hurdle it's hard to get away from FLINTY BAY, who handles the ground, will be suited by this track and is taken to beat main market rival and reliable yardstick Vivaldi.[Richard Young]

The live betting replicates the betting forecast here. Surely Tower is the each way value play? Flinty and Viv would be the 2 for consideratiion for the one a day.


240 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Attaglance, 4/1 Hobsons Bay, 7/1 Imperial Breeze, 8/1 Dizzy River, 10/1 Sendiym, 25/1 It´s A Mans World, 25/1 Piverina, 33/1 Below The Deck, 50/1 Smudger, 50/1 Talk Of Saafend, 100/1 Agricultural, 100/1 Loch Dhu, 150/1 Some Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ATTAGLANCE ought to have plenty going for him in an easier race than at Bangor in December and he looks the one to beat. Imperial Breeze has a harder task than when winning an Ayr handicap last time but should still be involved, while Hobsons Bay is worth another chance back in trip on this better ground.[Emily Weber]

Only 5 under 25/1 here and the hope is these 5 produce the 3 placed horses.

510 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Boston Bob, 7/1 Plenmeller, 7/1 Thirty Days Out, 10/1 Burgundy Beau, 14/1 Riverside Poppet, 33/1Dorlesh Way, 33/1 Edinburgh Gin Time, 33/1 Glen Rhydian, 33/1 Knickerbokerglory, 66/1 Celtic Mystique, 66/1 My Idea, 66/1Thetasteofparadise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Point winner Boston Bob will be hard to beat if as effective on this surface as on testing ground but he'll be a prohibitive price for one that does have something to prove and it could be worth having a small each-way wager onRIVERSIDE POPPET, who was well beaten on soft on her debut but whose pedigree suggests she could fare a good deal better now.[Richard Young]

Huge price gapper in the betting forecast but only 5/4 - - - 4/1 in the live betting and one of 5 under 20/1

A bumper so cards unlikely to have been played as far as the betting is concerned.

230 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wonder Of Wonders, 7/2 Eva´s Time, 6/1 Palinode, 8/1 Mesariya, 9/1 Dazzling Dream, 10/1 Sikara, 12/1 Siren´s Song, 14/1 Passion Planet, 16/1 Puzzled, 25/1 Acoustic Cheer, 33/1 Dimona, 50/1 In Bloom, 100/1 Latin Prayer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a high-class maiden for this early in the season and the winner will almost certainly need to be Group class. WONDER OF WONDERS (nap) has a beautiful pedigree and her highly-promising debut suggests that she wont be letting her family down. Evas Time is another smart prospect and warrants the utmost respect. [Kevin Blake]

Irish Flat season will see the big stables out in force such as Weld, Aiden O'Brien , Oxx, Prendergast, Bolger! No Murtagh for Aiden O'Brien this season and it looks like long time number 2 Saemie Heffernan gets the rides.

Very difficult to make selections this early in maidens. The market has O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders at the head as one of only 4 under 16/1 Hint of support for Mesariya now into 5/2

But some high class debutants and a difficult puzzle.

300 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dunboyne Express, 7/2 Exodus, 9/2 Cocozza, 10/1 Whipless.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cocozza is a high-class prospect in his own right, but DUNBOYNE EXPRESS is one of the most promising colts in the country and he can be expected to make a winning reappearance. [Kevin Blake]

Trials races have been won by their fair share of outsiders , but if Dunboyne is " one of the most promising colts in the country" then he has a chance of finishing 1st or 2nd in a 4 horse race.

400 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Wild Wind, 4/1 History Note, 8/1 Katla, 10/1 Empowering, 10/1 Hurricane Havoc, 10/1 Manieree, 12/1Radharcnafarraige, 12/1 Seeharn, 14/1 Knock Stars, 16/1 Gossamer Seed, 16/1 Redskin Dancer, 20/1 Gatamalata, 25/1 Juliet Capulet, 33/1 Emerald Ring.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Provided the market suggests she is forward enough to do herself justice, WILD WIND could well put her experience to good use and make a winning return to action. History Note is without doubt her most interesting rival. [Kevin Blake]

History Note the new fav - significant?

530 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Apache, 4/1 Alayir, 6/1 Train Of Thought, 7/1 Tazaamun, 8/1 Casimir Road, 10/1 Printmaker, 12/1Massabini, 16/1 Noble Call, 25/1 Best Hello, 33/1 Hill Of Content, 33/1 Loveinasanddune, 50/1 Colourful Hawk, 100/1 He Is Top Class.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is another strong maiden and APACHE could well take it on his way to even better things. Alayir is likely to make him work the hardest. Of the newcomers, Tazaamun makes most appeal. [Kevin Blake]

Apache now 4/5 for O'Brien - a trustworthy stable .

225 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Waldvogel, 9/4 Midnight Opera, 20/1 Murdoch, 50/1 Hatchet Man, 100/1 Caunay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WALDVOGEL beat a good horse at Musselburgh and if as good again he'll have too much class forMidnight Opera.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 only under 22/1 and surely the bigger priced of the 2 is the value placer over the smaller obstacles.


SHORTLIST

3pm - Brazil v Scotland - 1.38 home - could be tricky this one for the Samba Boys with plenty of high class absentees ( some enforced by management and some through injury) - too much to risk a one a day on a friendly I think.

210 HEXHAM - Flinty Bay is 1.14 to place and Vivaldi is 1.2 to place.


300 LEOPARDSTOWN - 4 horses and 2 places makes this a straightforward 50/50 race. But this is a trials race and consequently not as straightforward. Faith in the fav Dunboyne Express - around 1.24 to place.

225 WINCANTON - Waldvogel is obvious and so is the price 1.09 to place





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