Friday 25 March 2011

25/3

Internationals dominate tonight and my shortlist would include Uruguay ( but a friendly) , Spain, and Dutch ( away).
The 335 Lingfield looks too good to be true, and you know what they say!

*****ONE A DAY - 9pm- Spain v czechs - back Spain in the match odds at 1.26.*****
One of those days where there are many good opportunities.








A pity I did not put up Mr Pernickey, Ruby's only ride yesterday . American Ladie though was 2nd at 1.16 Betfair Sp. Popcorn also won.

FRIDAY IN PLAY COUPON

1pm - Denmark U17 v Latvia U17 - 1.53 home - no relevant recent head to heads here and a Euro qualifier so requisite motivation.
Perhaps an angle here is collateral form. For instance Denmark beat Lithuania recently 7-0, but Latvia only drew 2-2 with Lithuania. Denmark's only loss in their last 12 matches came v Poland, a 1-0 loss.
Latvia's only 2 recent wins have come against less than appealing opponents in San Marino and Kazahkstan.
Difficult to weigh up, but with 7 wins, 3 draws and only a solitary loss in their last 12, Denmark look in good order.
The only recent loss at home was the aforementioned 1-0 defeat by Poland.

3pm - Egypt v Botswana - 1.19 home - I have a feeling this might be the under 23 CAF African Olympic Qualifiers and the market has not captured the imagination of Betfairians so this match is best left alone.
330pm - Turkey U21 v Liechtenstein U21 - 1.08 home - sub 1.2 equals goals so sub 1.1 should be more so. Info from www.soccerway.com here points to Liechtenstein losing regularly -in their last 5 matches, they lost 4-0, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0, 3-0 - coincidence? It certainly fits in with the 1.08 quote for the turks.
But the Turks recently have not exactly been banging in the goals - 2010 results 1-0 loss to Estonia, 2-0 win over Switzerland, 1-0 loss v Georgia, 1-0 win over Ireland.
Faith in the Turks?
Guess what? The number 3 recurs in head to heads too.3-2 Turk win 2007 and 3-0 Turk win 2008.
Half time odds of around 1.3 enhance the odds for Turkey.
In their last 4 matches, Liechtenstein conceded at least 1 before half time, but again I am concerned with the Turks poor recent goalscoring record.
1.08 should mean over 2.5 goals easily but it is a worrying 1.41 ( should be much lower for a 1.08 shot)
There may be some mileage in the 3-0 trade if you place more faith in Liech's poor defence rather than turkey's attacking abilities.

5pm - Estonia v Uruguay - 1.57 away - Estonia's beating of Faroes only care of 2 90+minute goals, and their less than convincing 1-1 draw with Liechtenstein ( care of a penalty for Estonia no less!) makes Uruguay appealing here with Suarez and Forlan leading the line. This is, though, a friendly, but Estonia losing 2-0 to Qatar does give us an indication of their "level" whilst Uruguay will be familiar to World Cup watchers.
One to chance really more than anything . Back uruguay in the match odds for a back to lay trade?
I reiterate - FRIENDLY!! - comes with a wealth warning. Big boys for uruguay would be nice to see.

515pm - Portugal U21 v Rep of Ireland U21 - 1.5 home - a friendly and not a qualifier so we must make this distinction immediately.
Portugal's last 2 home matches have seen 2 3-1 wins while Ireland's last 3 away matches have been 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss, and 0-0 draw.
as a friendly I am not going to dwell too much. Head to heads 2-0 POrt win and 2-2 draw back in 2007 and 2008 so no real relevance as 21 year olds get older !!


730pm - Hungary v Netherlands - 1.51 away -Euro Qualifier so immediately of interest - Holland beat Hungary 6-1 in a recent home friendly and have a quite superb squad. Afellay is the latest eyecatcher snapped up by Barca - he is very exciting. Van Robben terrorising defences, Van Der vaart's class, Snjeider's sublime ball skills, Kuyt's, well, running round like a headless chicken on speed, and Van Persie's super finishing.
Surely the Hungarians are up against it?
But be ware a good winning streak for both sides.
Hungary have won their last 5, but hang on a sec, check out some of the opponents - Azerbaijan, Moldova, San Marino,Lithuania and Finland. Hmm.
Netherlands last lost 33 matches ago, when an early sending off saw them lose 2-1 to Australia back in 2008.16 wins and 2 draws in last 18 matches for Netherlands. 1 draw was the, ahem, World Cup Final and the next draw was a 1-1 friendly - the next match after the World Cup Final.
This 1.51 therefore is a steal is it not? Dutch squad news would be appreciated here to make sure all the above mentioned players are playing.


730pm - Serbia v Northern Ireland - 1.63 home - another qualifier and due deference to the Northern Irish that Serbia are only 1.63 .
Only 1 head to head was a 1-0 Serbia away win. This is not a match which grabs me at all to be honest. The Northern Irish deserve some consideration and Serbia could be layable early on at 1.63 , or better still, layable if they score first at much lower odds. Just in the hope Northern Ireland can force an equaliser. I suspect this will be a drab match where 0-0 could be tradable for a period?

8pm - Luxembourg v France - 1.06 away - short odds = goals and the French team looks rejuvenated now under Laurent Blanc. October 2010 saw an out of sorts France win 2-0 against Luxembourg at home, but I expect a different scoreline today.
France have won their last 5, including a 2-1 win in a friendly away to England and a 1-0 win over Brazil in another friendly. The other 3 wins came in Euro Qualifiers.
Benzema has scored in 4 of the last 5 wins so he is of obvious importance tonight ( indeed he is also finding the net for Real madrid after being particularly poor for a long period.)
Looking at Luxembourg's last 5 matches and there seems to be a tightness creeping in.
1-0 loss to Albania
0-0 draw belarus
2-0 loss away to France
0-0 draw at home v Algeria
2-1 home friendly win over Slovakia after conceding first.

yes, take note of the opposition in these matches, not the best ( even France were poor during that period)
France have scored 2 in 4 of their last 5 matches and I feel they can get 2 at least tonight. 1.06 signals though a very comfortable evening of 3-0, 4-0, 5-0.
Luxembourg have only scored one goal in their last 5 matches so bear that in mind.
Half time for France is 1.3 but remember they are away from home and do not need to win in the first 45 minutes.
Could be worth a risk
1.18 over 1.5 goals and 1.56 over 2.5 goals are suspiciously big so watch out for negative French team news?
It could just be a sign that Luxembourg no longer get a royal spanking any more.


8pm - Monaghan Utd v Salthill Devon - 1.18 home - I think March saw the new league kick off so basing decisions on 4 matches is a little foolhardy. Head to heads are conclusive though pointing to Monaghan winning 6-1, 3-0, 3-0 during 2010.

9pm - Spain v Czech Republic - 1.26 home. - only 2 losses for Spain came in friendlies. One was the infamous and meaningless match in Buenos aires against Argentina which led to Barcelona losing against Hercules at home ( as this friendly was mid week and the league match on the following weekend)
The other loss was against Portugal.
I do not take friendlies seriously and neither should you. This is a qualifier and therefore we should see a business like Spanish side comprising the majority of the Barca squad so with an inbuilt rapport and possession football to the fore. Like the dutch side, blessed, at this moment in time, with a wealth of wonderful players. The pick for me being Pedro who scores with regularity.
Xavi and Iniesta are the best double act since Little and Large.
Silva, torres, Mata, Villa, Alonso, Cazorla, Ramos. Oh man!!
Spain have won 8 of their last 9 important matches ( the one they did not win was the World Cup Final -a draw in 90 minutes)
SPain have won their last 8 home matches.
Czechs were not at the World Cup it would seem.
LLWWLWWDL in recent matches, some of which were friendlies which don't add much weight to the form.
Wins recently against Liechtenstein, Scotland , Latvia and USA
Team news again would be ideal for me to gauge the strength of the Spanish side. Big boys in should mean all systems go.



Irish flat season sees its second meeting tonight at Dundalk on the all weather and is to be treated with caution - where's the form?


630 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 One Kool Dude, 4/1 Snowflake Dancer, 5/1 Exactness, 8/1 Bible Black, 8/1 Diamond Rainbow, 10/1Battleroftheboyne, 10/1 French Emperor, 10/1 Yo Credo, 12/1 Rockview Diamond.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market should be the most informative guide to this juvenile maiden with all nine declared having their first taste of racecourse action and a chance is taken with sole British challenger ONE KOOL DUDE over Snowflake Dancer. [Brian Fleming]

All debutants and Hanagan/Fahey interesting on the fav, but their other runner bombed out. Quite simply a lottery at this stage.

700 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Old English, 6/1 Red Army Blues, 7/1 Extra Steps, 8/1 Beau Bunny, 8/1 Elusive Express, 10/1 Big Bad Lily, 10/1 Future Impact, 10/1 More Than A Lot, 10/1 Teriyaki, 12/1 Big Tex, 12/1 Late Debate, 12/1 Solo Whisper, 16/1 Lake Wanaka, 16/1 Princess Theophane.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There could be better to come from last Friday's Lingfield winner OLD ENGLISH (nap) whose fitness is not a matter of doubt. Best of the possible each-way alternatives may be Big Bad Lily. [Alan Sweetman]

Messrs Johnston/Fanning make the journey across the water on old English , a 9/4 - - - - - 7/1 favourite here and must be noted.

Has race fitness here . Only 15 runners. One more and it's 4 places for this handicap.


335 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Perfect Act, 9/4 Hinton Admiral, 8/1 Bonnie Prince Blue, 8/1 Chimpunk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Perfect Act is the pick of the weights and will be hard to beat dropped in grade, but she wouldn't be ideally suited were this to become tactical. The opportunity is there for someone to seize the initiative and pinch this from the front and it may be that HINTON ADMIRAL is best equipped to fulfil that role.[Paul Smith]

now 3 horses and still 2 places on Betfair.

1.2 Perfect Art, 1.46 Hinton Admiral and the apparent outsider, Bonnie is 1.78. Wow! If Perfect Art is " hard to beat dropped in grade" then this price is superb for a race where the horse only has to make sure he is not beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race.


220 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shadows Lengthen, 5/2 Scriptwriter, 15/2 Bridlingtonbygones, 9/1 Gin Cobbler, 16/1 Alpha One, 20/1 Old Style, 40/1 Glasson Lad, 50/1 The Bravetraveller, 66/1 Cool Water.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHADOWS LENGTHEN was a stylish winner from two fair sorts at Catterick last time and looks to have been found a decent opportunity to go in again. Scriptwriter is easily the biggest danger, ahead of Bridlingtonbygones. [Mel Cullinan]

3 under 14/1 here - go with the fac here to place.

325 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Priceless Art, 3/1 Wadnaan, 6/1 City Ground, 15/2 Bocciani, 8/1 Hunters Belt, 20/1 Colorado Kid, 25/1 Master Performer, 28/1 Danny Cool, 28/1 Provost, 28/1 Umverti, 33/1 Phantom Serenade, 66/1 Pont De Nuit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both City Ground and, in particular, hurdles newcomer Wadnaan have to be respected on Flat form but decent bumper horse PRICELESS ART has already shown plenty of promise in this discipline and is preferred on account of that. [Mel Cullinan]

5 under 33/1 in this novices hurdle makes it an ideal probability race.

615 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sleeping Brave, 9/2 Neytiri, 7/1 Lynchpin, 10/1 Cheers, 12/1 Back For Tea, 14/1 Century Dancer, 14/1 On Wings Of Love, 16/1 Magical Star, 20/1 Complicate, 25/1 Sister Sioux.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the recent Lingfield return of SLEEPING BRAVE (nap), who was a strong-finishing third in a better race than this, and this looks a decent opportunity to get off the mark in a race in which none have tasted success so far.[Adrian Cook]

Price gapper ( now evens) in a class 6 0-55 handicap - they usually do well, but it's a double edged sword - these are donkeys!!!


SHORTLIST

330pm - Turkey U21 v Liechtenstein U21 - 1.08 home - the number 3 comes up in a number of areas of research with these 2, but the turk's recent goalscoring record is less than emphatic. Hope rests on Liechtenstein conceding the 3 or 4 as they have done in their last 5 matches.

1.41 over 2.5 goals relies on the odds of 1.08 being accurate. If they are then the 1.41 is extremely good for a sub 1.1 side.

5pm - Estonia v Uruguay - 1.57 away - friendlies are really no go zones, but Estonia's form is so poor and Uruguay are strong enough after a solid World Cup to do something tonight?

730pm - Hungary v Netherlands - 1.51 away - do not be fooled by the recent Hungarian run of wins, the sides they are playing are poor. The dutch are imperious at present. Although this is away from home ( and that is the slight niggle I have), the Dutch firepower is such that Hungary should be well within their grasp. 1.5 is very enticing for a team on a great unbeaten run.

8pm - Luxembourg v France - 1.06 away - is Luxembourg's recent apparent defensive tightness a false dawn? France 1.18 over 1,5 goals with a 1.06 quote is superb. 1.06 signals a battering under normal circumstances. 1.56 over 2,5 goals as well appeals. Benzema , it would seem, is the key man for the French.

9pm - Spain v Czech Republic - 1.26 home - the Czechs are the AC Milan of international football, all of pensionable age and should be no match for a Spanish side the core of which is the Barca team, guaranteeing familiarity and possession football.


700 DUNDALK - Old english for Johnston/fanning stands out in this card this evening. Caution though that those without a recent run may well surprise.

1.57 to place in an illiquid market.

335 LINGFIELD - a quite superb probability race sees 3 horses and 2 places and a 1.2 for the fav to place ( which admittedly is a little suspicious as he only has to ensure he does not get beaten by one other horse in a 2 horse race.

220 SEDGEFIELD - an argument can be made to make this a probability race with Shadows lengthen 1.14 to place

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST


5pm - Estonia v Uruguay - 1.57 away - a friendly may not make this a one a day bet but a first team for uruguay should do the business against an Estonian team who have lost, drawn, and scraped a win against some poor opponents of late.

730pm - Hungary v Netherlands - 1.51 away - Netherlands are a superb squad. Team news ideal to make sure the big boys play. Should have much too much for this Hungary side - the niggle - playing away. Hungary's recent winning run is a false dawn - the teams they played against are poor.

8pm - Luxembourg v France - 1.06 away - 1.18 over 1.5 goals is enticing as is 1.56 over 2.5 goals for the trader but they seem a little out of kilter with a 1.06 quote . Half time only for France is 1.3 and very enticing. benzema the key man for the French

9pm - Spain v Czech Republic - 1.26 home - Spain have won their last 8, and their only recent losses were in friendlies. Surely too much. We may have to wait for the first goal as is traditional with Spain international matches!!!

335 LINGFIELD - 3 horses and 2 places.

Default to the market leader Perfect Art here - around 1.2 to place is a massive price relative to the idea this is 3 horses 2 places and he only needs not get beaten by one other horse to place.





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