back-lay-trade-horses-football: 23/3

A very tough day for me. Read the shortlist of the shortlist at the base and see if you agree. Speculators might chance backing Braintree and hope they lead at some stage ( only to trade out , not as a stand alone bet) In the last match at Lewes, Braintree were 2-0 up before conceding 2 for a 2-2 final score.
Horse racing wise, I have seen it before with markets dominated by 3 horses, 2 end up placing and the one you choose finishes out of the frame.
If push came to shove, A Bridge too far would be the selection today in the 500 Haydock for a trainer who has won this race twice already. Concern with the 2 mile 4 as this was the analysis when A Bridge was upped to 2 mile 3 furlongs latest.
"He attracted plenty of support under his penalty and looked the most likely winner turning for home. His jumping over the last two let him down, however, and he failed to see out the extra distance that well as a result."

Was his failure to see out the extra distance purely down to coincidental bad jumping of the last 2 fences, or was the bad jumping of the last 2 fences down to tiredness upped in trip?

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY*****
If called upon, I would venture into the Lewes and Braintree match. The concession rate of goals for Lewes is alarming, and TRADING ONLY, I would look to back Braintree and hope they lead at some stage in the match to lay off

Kishanda placed 3rd, and that's the beauty of placed betting. A poor, poor class 6 maiden but the probability was that the fav would place, as not.

745pm - Lewes v Braintree - 1.43 away -IN PLAY - a day of no strong opportunities sees me delving into the English Conference South ( next step would be phoning Samaritans , it's that bad!!) This is Bottom v Top and Lewes have not been the same since Inspector Morse was sacked as Manager.
Top v Bottom clashes are obvious matches of interest. The market is totally illiquid. On the back side on Betfair we have £34 waiting at 1.43, £156 waiting at 1.42 and then suddenly £7200 at 1.03 - no depth at all in the market. As an update at around 11am, the market is getting a little bit stronger.

LLDLL for Lewes recently and the draw, a 1-1, saw them equalise in the 90th minute. 3,4,1,4,5 the goals conceded by Lewes in those 5 matches.
2 wins at home in their last 12 matches. Lewes have lost 3-0, 4-0 and 5-1 at home in their last 5 matches.

Braintree are top and have only lost 2 in their last 11 matches. LWWDWWDDLWD - recent form. Notice the win rate dipping a bit of late for Braintree after a run of 4 wins and a draw in 5 matches. Slightly worrying is the single win in their last 5 matches.
WLWWWDLW recently away from home is reasonable enough.

Head to heads when Braintree go to Lewes they have not won - 2 draws contrasts with 3 home head to heads wins for Braintree.

1030pm - Palmeiras v Linense SP - 1.47 home- Brazilian Paulista and not a league I am familiar with in any way.Not for me.
1030pm - Santos v Mogi Mirim - 1.4 home - as above.

350 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Thanks For Coming, 5/1 Tobago Bay, 11/2 Diklers Oscar, 7/1 Nicene Creed, 10/1 Los Nadis, 10/1 Mad Moose, 10/1 Maska Pony, 10/1 Viva Colonia, 14/1 Natural Action, 16/1 Amir Pasha, 16/1 First Stream, 20/1 Glingerbank.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Competitive and interesting. Unexposed Thanks For Coming is the obvious starting point but costly purchase NICENE CREED is give the chance to redeem himself back on faster ground.[Paul Johnson]

Thanks for coming was a one a dayer recently until he was pulled out. No McCoy onboard today and might be of some interest.Out to 5/1 which relays a very competitive race.

500 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Cantlow, 2/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Solis, 12/1 Tahiti Pearl, 16/1 Katapult, 20/1 That´s Mine, 25/1 Allbarkanobite, 25/1 The Musical Guy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CANTLOW, who is held in some regard, should cope with the drop back in trip and is given a narrow verdict over former stablemate A Bridge Too Far to deny Donald McCain a hat-trick in this race.[Paul Johnson]

8 runners and 3 places.

305 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Mister Chancer, 5/4 Mr Moss, 12/1 Persian Forest, 25/1 Radmores Oscar, 33/1 Court Gamble, 66/1 Countess Susy, 66/1 Princess Zhukova.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is probably between just MISTER CHANCER, who has plenty of fair form, and maiden point winner Mr Moss, who showed some promise on his hurdling debut.[Richard Austen]

One more runner and we could have had 8 runners and 3 places. As it is it is 2 places and 7 runners and a market obviously dominated by 2. We saw with Raya Star yesterday that the horses may look great on paper , but they still have to complete the course.

520 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Takeroc, 7/4 Good Company, 5/1 My Way De Solzen, 16/1 Dreux, 16/1 Fairwood Present, 20/1 Little Rocker, 25/1 Mccauley, 40/1 Naxox, 40/1 No Greater Love, 50/1 Ticket To Ride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former star My Way De Solzen has been competitive in points but is likely to find that Takeroc and more particularly GOOD COMPANY (nap) have his measure on this return to racing under rules.[Richard Austen]

Class 6 and a hunters chase - YELP!! But the betting forecast indicates 3 under 16/1

220 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sweet Irony, 9/4 Faultless Feelings, 15/2 Captain Cool, 10/1 Rossmore Lad, 11/1 Touz Master, 12/1 Mickytaker, 12/1 Monbeg Dude, 33/1 Keltic Crisis, 33/1 Rebel High, 40/1 Astroleo, 50/1 Tranquil River, 100/1 Remarkable Rocket.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for SWEET IRONY (nap) to get off the mark after his series of placed runs, with such as his latest Kempton third making him the clear form pick. He did finish weakly that day but his stamina might well have emptied out in the conditions. Faultless Feelings is the main danger. [Mel Cullinan]

Only 3 under 10/1 here.

255 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Highway Code, 5/2 Grandads Horse, 9/2 Strathcal, 16/1 Cape Schanck, 20/1 Anaya, 25/1 Astrodiva, 25/1 Prince Of Dreams, 33/1 Sirdave, 40/1 Layla´s Boy, 50/1 Marvelous, 50/1 Red Whisper, 66/1 Deed Poll.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The penalised Highway Code could well bounce back in this moderate company, but GRANDADS HORSE looked above average when taking his bumper last August and gets the vote for his new yard. [Dave Orton]

The live betting market should be more revealing in a messy hurdles race with 4 debutants and one of the favourites returning from a 200+ day absence with no hurdles experience.

SHORTLIST

There's a horse called Thomas Crapper running in the last at Warwick which gives us a derivative word which pretty much sums up the day's betting opportunities.

5oo HAYDOCK - 8 runners down to 7 runners and now 3 remain at 16/1 which makes this an ideal race to look at. 1.1 for Cantlow and 1.12 for a Bridge too far. The latter is interesting as Donald McCain has won this race the last twice.

Illiquid market and poor prices.

305 HEREFORD - the live betting indicates the market is pretty much taken up with the front 2 - Mister Chancer is 1.16 and Mr Moss is 1.24 currently. The former has had 3 hurdles runs and the latter just one run. Jury is still out therefore on Mr Moss.

7 runners and 2 places means any involvement in this hurdle precludes a suggestion that both horses will dominate and complete.

520 HEREFORD - only 3 under 14/1 to dominate this hunter chase. Will all 3 place and if not which will not? They are hard to separate in the betting market.

220 WARWICK - again only 3 of interest in the betting and Sweet Irony is "rated a non stayer" so says the analyst of his last race where I believe he was a one a dayer and managed 3rd after clouting the last. A slight risk attached therefore back at the same trip today. faultless feelings therefore may be the ready alternative.