back-lay-trade-horses-football: 17/3

I am not sure how to approach the Porto match today. I wanted to get better odds somehow by perhaps backing Porto in the match odds and covering with a 0-0 insurance bet. This does not cover the 1-1 which would still be adequate for Porto to progress.

Big Buck's is obvious in a race where only 5 are under 33/1 He has won his last 10 and , while it may be difficult to keep winning the same race year after year, a clear round should surely ensure a place?

*****320 CHELTENHAM - Big Buck's to place only - 1.18*****

A day too late alas with the bigger prices. They did not pay off as Time for Rupert struggled. The more traditional one a day on Real to qualify came in with ease.

6pm - Man City v Dinamo Kiev - 1.55 home - Europa League 2nd leg and 2-0 to Dinamo from the first leg. No away goal scored so Dinamo are in Chelsea's position yesterday. A 0-0 will suffice. A 1-0, 1-1 will get them through.
If Dinamo score, city are finished as they will have an away goal.
City need to score 2 to remain on parity and 3 to qualify within the 90 minutes without conceding a goal.
4 of City's last 7 scorelines at home have been enough to send them through if replicated tonight. But more recently, 2 1-0 wins will not be enough.
Kiev are on a 6 match winning streak and have not conceded in their last 5 matches.
Upset anyone?
1.29 over 1.5 goals but note that clean sheet stat for kiev. I would be banking on City scoring the goals as Kiev don't need to.
Kiev at 1.41 to qualify is tempting. Imagine they score that away goal , then this price will reduce dramatically.

6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Twente - 1.63 home - quite short but a sign that they need goals more than Twente do. 3-0 down from the away leg, and no away goal, Zenit must attack and not concede. And 2 1-0 matches either side of the loss to Twente does not augur well.
0-0 for Twente and 3-0 to equalise for Zenit. If Twente score, then you could see Zenit downing tools. 1.26 over 1.5 goals.
Lay Twente at 6.2? They do not need to win. They need only to avoid a 3-0 or 4-0 defeat!

805pm - Liverpool v Braga - 1.49 home - 1-0 Braga home leg win with a penalty and while watching the match, Liverpool improved greatly with Carroll's introduction. All to play for this evening, although a Braga goal may spell trouble.
Liverpool must surely be buoyed by 3-1 win over Man Utd at home recently. Another headscratcher in a tough competition. No Suarez or Gerrard tonight though for Liverpool and Suarez especially was the key to that success over United.

805pm - Porto v CSKA Moscow - 1.49 home - Porto are becoming trustworthy betting mediums at present. 1-0 lead from the away leg and a precious away goal means they only need a 0-0 to progress this evening, and Porto do not do 0-0's at home. It is all a matter of whether Porto want this or not. They have downed tools in previous cup competitions.
Only losses at home in last 12 have come in the League Cup, another Cup match and a 2nd leg against Sevilla where they won away 2-1 - they lost 1-0 in the home leg - again doing what is required to progress.
That might be the way tonight's match plays out. Porto go for a 0-0? 1.39 under 3.5 goals? Remember Porto seem to know what they need to do and rarely do more.

TENNIS
2am - Nadal v Karlovic - 1.18 - likely to be a tight match if head to heads are to be believed so the 1.18 looks layable to start with but Nadal should prevail.

320 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Big Buck´s, 11/4 Grands Crus, 9/1 Mourad, 12/1 Fiveforthree, 20/1 Zaynar, 25/1 Ashkazar, 40/1 Cross Kennon, 50/1 Any Given Day, 50/1 Powerstation, 50/1 Restless Harry, 66/1 Berties Dream, 80/1 Souffleur, 100/1 Rigour Back Bob.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The threat posed by Grands Crus does not look quite so potent on drying ground and BIG BUCK'S looks poised to make history by landing the stayers' championship event for a third consecutive time. While he has not had to produce his best form this season there is no reason to suppose his powers are on the wane. Despite a question mark over his stamina, stablemate Celestial Halo makes some each-way appeal at a big price.[Frank Carter]

Big Buck's and Grand Crus are set to dominate? Only 5 under 33/1 in this race makes it a great probability race with Fiveforthree, Zaynor and Mourad the 3 each way alternatives to choose from.

Big Buck's has won his last 10 races so a clear round here and we could be assured of a place at least. 1.18 to place for Big Buck's and 1.79 for Grand Crus.

310 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Ballymak, 6/1 West Ship Master, 12/1 Ad Man, 16/1 Farmaland, 25/1 Inverglen, 66/1 Shouson Hill Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALLYMAK will go off at terribly punitive odds in this contest but hes clearly the best in the race by some margin and shouldnt have to come off the bridle. West Ship Master is the most likely to benefit should a mishap occur. [Justin OHanlon]

Huge price gapper and a beginners chase. the favourite has been 3-2-2 in his last 3 races over chase fences and on soft and heavy ground. 1.29 to win and 1.11 ( illiquid market) to place.

520 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Giant´s Quest, 7/4 Shadow Eile, 12/1 Milisle, 16/1 Indian Tiger, 20/1 Hidden Future, 25/1 Knox´s Turn, 33/1 Bobleeswagger, 33/1 Enya Rose, 33/1 Seaneen Mac Ri.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GIANT'S QUEST looks quite a smart sort and is preferred to Shadow Eile in what looks a match. [Johnny Ward]

Another bumper here and 2 under 12/1 to dominate?

255 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 King O´the Gypsies, 11/8 Signalman, 8/1 Woody Waller.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Puyol would dot up if translating his best hurdling form to the larger obstacles, but recent efforts have been disheartening. This can therefore go to whichever of King O'The Gypsies and SIGNALMAN puts in the better round of jumping, with the latter preferred having warmed to the task well after a single early error last time.[Jeremy Grayson]

Novice chase in heavy and 3 horses for 2 places. Pure probability race. 1.18 Signal and 1.26 King to place.

335 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rupert Lamb, 6/4 Bollin Felix, 16/1 Sam D´oc, 16/1 Scotswell, 33/1 Moonlight Blaze, 50/1 Funky Munky, 100/1 Bunratty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's been slightly disappointing that RUPERT LAMB hasn't got off the mark over timber yet, and some jumping issues remain, but an incident-free round should see him oblige at last, especially if the penalised Bollin Felix's efforts in punishing going on Eider Chase day haven't been fully got over.[Jeremy Grayson]

2 under 12/1 here should dominate but again we have the heavy ground factor. Bollin Felix won in heavy 19 days ago. Rupert Lamb has been 2nd in soft ground over hurdles twice recently. 1.21 Rupert Lamb and 1.28 Bollin Felix to place

305 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Delgany Gunner, 11/4 Atherstone Hill, 13/2 Wide Receiver, 8/1 Caspar Of Tarsus, 8/1 Huckleberry, 10/1 Lonesome Boatman, 12/1 Heezagrey, 20/1 Domoly, 25/1 High Toby.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DELGANY GUNNER (nap) is ahead of the handicapper turned out under a penalty for last week's Fontwell success (due to go up 2lb in the future) and he can complete a hat-trick. Atherstone Hill's recent course form (on soft ground) puts him in the mix, while Caspar Of Tarsus may bounce back returned to less testing conditions with headgear refitted.[Steven Boow]

2 over 33/1 should mean 6 runners and 3 places Front 2 are 1.45 to place

425 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Identity Parade, 2/1 Radharc Na Mara, 8/1 Zhukov, 20/1 Cengiz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two mares both escape a penalty for their wins and stand out on the figures. Radharc Na Mara, whose Sedgefield success came over 3m3f, is possibly going to be vulnerable kept to this trip and IDENTITY PARADE is taken to follow up her Carlisle victory.[Steven Boow]

Another 2 horse race for 2 places with a clear round? 1.14 Identity to place.

225 WEXFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Fever Pitch, 9/2 Born To Excel, 7/1 Clara More, 10/1 Britway Lady, 14/1 Coral Creek, 14/1 Mini Budget, 16/1 Allinkillough, 33/1 Bleakfield Lady, 33/1 Howya Katie, 33/1 Yanavita.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In what looks a weak affair FEVER PITCH, a close second in a Punchestown maiden over this trip last month at his second attempt over jumps, looks difficult to oppose with hurdling recruit Born To Excel likely to give him most to do. [Brian Fleming]

4 under 20/1 here should dominate with now 2/5 Fever Pitch the obvious one. a maiden hurdle and Fever has only one encouraging run. 1.1 to place, illiquid market.

300 WEXFORD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cass Bligh, 5/2 Hunting Tower, 7/2 No One Tells Me, 10/1 Hide The Evidence.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CASS BLIGH (nap) - who should not win strictly at the weights - is otherwise bullet-proof here and if he kicks into an early lead he should make all. The other three have clear questions to answer; he has none. [Johnny Ward]

With the outsider at 20/1, this is a 3 horse race for 2 places. 1.26 the fav to place.

745 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Visions Of Johanna, 2/1 Humor Me Rene, 7/2 Relative Strength, 6/1 Kammamuri, 25/1 Mojeerr, 40/1 Noble Edge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HUMOR ME RENE, successful over C&D on her only start in claiming company, has the best chance at the weights and can take advantage of a return to this class. Visions Of Johanna is 2-2 in this grade on AW and looks the main threat.[Steven Boow]

3 under 20/1 here should fight out the 2 places?

SHORTLIST

I was hoping for something at decent odds today but we have difficult Europa League fixtures which can be unpredictable.