Sunday 6 March 2011

6/3

Sometimes we need a bit of luck, and yesterday shows you that perhaps the form window is redundant for the run in as bottom sides play above themselves . 1-0 to City I'll take although thoroughly undeserved!


*****ONE A DAY - TIME IS RUNNING OUT and I am going to pin my hopes on Rangers not losing 2 consecutive away matches for the first time this season
1245pm - ST MIRREN V RANGERS - BACK RANGERS IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.4*****

I will do the rest of the analysis and post it for those interested at the blog at www.cliveoneaday.com password stable634.
I hope my gamble pays off.

1230pm -Duisburg v Bielefeld - 1.39 home - in play - German 2nd tier - head to heads - 2 away wins for Duisburg and a 1-1 away draw - Duisburg took the lead but succumbed to an 85th minute equaliser.
7th playing bottom and does my argument re bottom sides and this part of the season hold true for other leagues?We saw Wigan yesterday.
Recent home form - DLLWWL - losses against 4th, 11th and 12th the only losses this season at home for Duisburg and they all occur in last 5 matches. Significant?
Againt the bottom 5 at home, Duisburg have been very convincing , winning 4-1, 3-0, 3-0, 4-1 ( but then City were equally as convincing against bottom 4 in Premiership yesterday and it took a goalkeeping howler to get them victory at home) Last 2 home losses have both been 1-0 losses.

Recent form overall - DLWDDWDLD - only 2 losses but by the same token, only 2 wins. 5 draws are too many draws to mount a realistic assault on the title.
Interestingly, all of the draws in recent form were away from home, 2 were 1-1 and 3 were 0-0's.

Looking at the recent form overall and at home, it seems Duisburg may be lacking some attacking firepower? Taking out the anomolous looking 3-1 home win v Erzgebirge, scorelines in last 5 matches have been 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 ( home loss), 0-0.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 of last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals.
Duisburg do average 2.08 per match scored at home.
67% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals. They are playing the right type of opposition today where they can possibly return to a over 2.5 goals stat at home.
STREAKS -Duisburg have failed to score in their last 3 matches. They have gone 5 matches without a draw at home. They have beaten all bottom 5 sides scoring 3 twice and 4 goals twice.

BIELEFIELD - will they show Wigan like qualities today against a side faltering in the goal scoring department?
Lost 3-1 already this season to Duisburg.
LLDLLLLLL recent away form for Bielefield. In fact they have not won a match away from home.
10 defeats and one draw.
Against 5 of the top 7 they have played away, they have lost the lot with the following scorelines 3-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0, 2-1.
This ties in with Duisburg's performances against bottom 5 at home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDLLLDLD - 3 draws came a t home and a surprising 2-2 draw v 4th side Bochum 3 matches ago may signal Bielefield are up for a scrap.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 of Bielefield's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. bielefield have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 15 matches. In fact, Bielefield have only kept a clean sheet in 2 of 24 matches and only once away from home.
bielefield have failed to score in a whopping 55% of away matches and considering 73% of those matches are over 2.5 goals, you don't have to be Miss Marple to realise they concede an average 2.18 away from home.
As mentioned already, the likelihood against top 7 is to concede at least 2 goals.
STREAKS? - Only 10% of points are earned away from home.They score only 28% of their goals away from home.
11 matches without a win at home, 6 matches without a draw.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - it is interesting that Duisburg at home to bottom 5 score around 3 goals and win the lot, and Bielefield away to top 7 concede 3 on 4 occasions, and 2 once, and lose the lot.
Duisburg are in poor goalscoring form, hence the quite generous 1.39. They do, however, look the more likely to open the scoring wouldn't you think, if only 29% of Bielefield's goals are scored away from home, and they concede over 2 on average away from home.


1245pm - St Mirren v Rangers - 1.41 away - in play - Celtic's pitiful attempt at pretending to look interested v Motherwell last week has opened the doors for Rangers here with 3 games in hand to go top with a 100% record in their next 3 matches.

HEAD TO HEADS - the Premiership head to heads read 2 away wins ( 2-0 and 3-1) and a 3-1 home win for Rangers - pretty dominant and consistent.
ST MIRREN
RECENT HOME FORM - LDLLLDDL - clearly problems throughout for St Mirren see them 2nd bottom and vulnerable at home and away.
At home against the top 4 it's a 1-0 loss to Celtic, 3-1 loss to Rangers , and 2-0 losses to hearts and Kilmarnock. Comprehensive defeats bar the Celtic match.
Only one win at home for St Mirren this season came against Aberdeen way back on 30th October 2010.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLLDDLDLWL - a recent win was away to Motherwell and a 1-0.
Against the top 4 home and away, it's a clean sweep of defeats -in the 4 matches at home and 3 matches away, St Mirren have lost the lot.
GOAL TRENDS - only 1 of St Mirren's last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Quite a surprise to me that stat. Those 10 games include the 2 2-0 defeats to Kilmarnock and Hearts from the top 4.
St Mirren have only scored once against the top 4 at home in 4 matches, and that happened to be against Rangers.
St Mirren have only kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 12 matches and have failed to score in only 3 of last 10 matches.
Reliance on over 1.5 goals if you don't fancy Old Firm away from home?
STREAKS - no win in 9 at home .

RANGERS
RECENT AWAY FORM
WDWLWL - inconsistent and an inability to string together a winning sequence. Similarly, Rangers have never lost 2 consecutive away matches this season. Recent losses against Celtic ( fair enough) and Hearts ( 3rd place and again not a great surprise)
Against the bottom 3 away from home, it's 3-2 win, 3-1 win ( St Mirren), 2-1 win.. All over 2.5 goals and all scoring 2 or more and , importantly, conceding in each match!
In fact, rangers have conceded in all bar one match away from home this season.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWLWWWLW - no draw in 10 matches for Rangers and they show, overall, that they can string together a winning sequence with regularity. Recent winning sequences of 2 and 3 shown in recent form.
Of the losses mentioned, well 2 were against top side Celtic and 1 against 3rd placed Hearts, so Rangers can beat all bar the top 3 in the SPL recently it would seem. Good to see for today's match.
GOAL TRENDS - Rangers score on average 2.16 away from home. 75% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals ( remember they have conceded away in all bar 1 match this season)
against the bottom 5 away Rangers have scored 2,3,3,2 .
Last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Rangers have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches.
and the only time Rangers have failed to score in the last 13 matches was in the matches against the top 3 sides.
STREAKS - 10 matches without a draw for Rangers, 4 of those matches away from home.
In the 6 matches Rangers have played against bottom 4 sides, they have won them all.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS -Rangers, Celtic, Real Madrid away - all go on my little black list of inconsistent betting mediums. But you cannot argue that it all points to a Rangers win today. They must take advantage of the loss suffered by celtic at Motherwell . they simply must!
Goals bet looks good here -over 1.5 goals. Rangers have conceded away in all bar 1 match this season, and St Mirren have conceded 1,3,2,2 at home to top 4. Slight concern that the 1-0 Celtic match was tight but that was way back in November 2010.

1pm - OFI v Thrasivoulos F. - 1.32 home - greek 2nd flight perhaps not the best betting medium - for those interested though, you can get necessary stats at www.futbol24.com

1pm - Olympiakos v Ergotelis - 1.28 home- in play - top v 9th and a slight concern that a 10 point lead for Oly might instil a little bit of complacency , especially at home and especially when expected to win?
2009 and 2010 head to heads 1-0 Ergo home win, 2-1 Oly home win, 1-1 ergo home draw, 2-0 Oly away win with goals in 75th and 95th minutes!!! So largely a tight match.
These head to heads reflect typically tight Greek matches and that is a slight concern already.
OLY RECENT HOME FORM - 11 wins out of 11 at home - rock solid.Only 2 wins have come by a 1-0 scoreline so Oly have been generally consistent at home, winning without any undue rollercoaster rides.
OLY OVERALL RECENT FORM - WWWWWWWWWWWD - recent draw away to Panionis was a 1-1 - last 5 matches prior to the draw have been one goal victories 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 which might signal that Olympiakos are initially layable?
GOAL TRENDS - Average 2.54 goals scored at home, Oly have scored in all home matches this season.
Oly have only failed to score in one match all season.
64% of home matches have been clean sheets and 64% of home matches over 2.5 goal.
ergotelis are 9th, against 8th and 10th, Oly only won 1-0 at home.
oly have scored 17 goals in the last 20 minutes of matches , so watch out if it is tight or goalless coming into the 70th minute.
STREAKS - 11 match winning run at home. Undefeated in 12 matches.

ERGOTELIS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDLWL - only one win recently.
Against top 5 away from home, an anomolous 1-0 win v Volous but lost 2-0 to Pana, and 3-1 to AEK and Kavala
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWDLWWL - recent win was at home to 5th placed Kavala. Might given them confidence.
GOAL TRENDS - 30% away matches over 2.5 goals. have scored 2 in last 3 matches , including against 4th and 5th in the league at home. Shoots of recovery?
STREAKS? - no draw in 4 matches.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - slight concern here with ergo's recent home form against 4th and 5th in the league - in marked contrast to their away form against these 2. Does it show today that Ergo might be able to put some resistance to Oly at home?

130pm - Liverpool v Man Utd - 2.58 away- in play - this is far too tight for me to take an opinion I am afraid, and add into the mix the Champions League this week. It will be great to watch.

Instinct tells me this is likely to be a tight enough match and an unders bet could oblige?

Must win for United with Arsenal dropping 3 points.

Couple of stats from the Racing Post - United have not lost consecutive league matches in 76 league fixtures ( lay Liverpool?)

Inter v Genoa - 1.45 home - still in the Champions League- in play -
2nd v 10th -
WWDW head to heads for Inter in the league - last 2 very tight matches 0-0 and 0-1
INTER
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWW -perfect record recently and the last match was only 1-0 but typically 3 + goals scored at home for inter - only beaten at home 1-0 v AC Milan this season ( and AC Milan were playing at home too!!!)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLWWWLWWW - no draw in 16 matches now for Inter.
The 3 losses coming away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - recently at home , Inter have scored 5,3,4,33,5,1 - abruptly halted by that 1 goal.
Average 2.46 at home this season. REjuvenated since the Fat Spanish Waiter left.
Only 2 matches in 21 where Inter have not scored at least a goal.
Concede on average 1.15 at home so a naturalised over 2.5 goal average.
STREAKS - No defeat in 7 at home, and no draw in 8 at home - current winning streak of 7 at home.
GENOA -
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDDLDWL - only 2 losses recently for Genoa against 12th and 15th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLDWLDDWWL - only 3 losses. Only 2 losses in last 8 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - Only 2 of Genoa's last 7 have been over 2.5 goals, and they were their last 2 matches.
0-0, 0-0, 1-0 (loss), 0-0 , 2-1(loss) - interesting to note the 3 0-0 scorelines in last 5 matches away from home.
Only 21% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
1-0 away loss to AC Milan and 1-0 win v UDinese are the only 2 away matches genoa have played against the top 5.
Again these are tight matches.

INITIAL THOUGHTS - conflict here between Inter's ability to score 3+ in 6 matches ( bar latest 1 goal scored at home) versus a genoa team only 1-0 loss v AC milan and 29% only over 2.5 goals away stat. 3 0-0's away in their last 5 and perhaps Inter will have a frustrating afternoon?

2pm - Napoli v Brescia - 1,42 home- in play - 3rd v 19th
HEAD TO HEADS - only one recent relevant head to head 1-0 away win for Napoli.
NAPOLI
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDWWW - superb and a reason why they are 3rd in the table. - draw was a 0-0 v Fiorentina.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWLWDWWLWWWL - capable of stringing together small bursts of wins. Last 5 losses have come away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - napoli have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 9 matches - the 2 aberrations were away from home - so reinforces home strengths.
In fact, Napoli have kept a clean sheet at home in their last 7 matches. They have failed to score 3 times in last 15 matches. Again twice away from home and the 0-0 at home v Fiorentina.
It looks as if Napoli get a goal at home, they win! 69% clean sheets at home - only 9 conceded in the first half all season.
STREAKS - 9 matches unbeaten at home. 7 at home without conceding a goal. 7 matches without a draw.
5 wins and a draw against bottom 7 at home. 2-2 v Bari I would dismiss as an early season anomoly ( 2nd match of the season)

BRESCIA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLDD - draws against 5th and 6th in the league - so a shot across the boughs for Napoli as far as winning this match is concerned ( I think Napoli's profile indicates they will not lose at least)
Away against top 8 it is 3-0 loss to AC Milan, 1-1 draw with Inter, 1-0 loss to Lazio, 0-0 Udinese, 1-1 Roma , 1-0 loss Palermo. Some really hard luck stories there I think you'll agree and a note to those wanting to steam into Napoli that Brescia can be a thorn in the side.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWLDD - only one loss in their last 5 matches is good form for Brescia.
GOAL TRENDS - only 31% of Brescia's away matches are over 2.5 goals, testament to their defensive capabilities. They look like the Wigan of Seria A!!
Brescia have only conceded 6 in the first half hour of matches this season so early solidity.
They have scored an anomolous 9 goals in the 16th-30th minutes of their matches - standout for them.
STREAKS - No win in 11 away matches.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - tough to weigh this match up from a trading perspective. It points to Napoli not losing, but Brescia's decent enough tight record against top 8 hints that perhaps we cannot have faith in an outright Napoli win.
But Napoli have not conceded a goal in their last 7.
Back 0-0 and the match odds perhaps and hope Napoli score first?
2pm - Udinese v Bari - 1.3 home- in play -
Head to heads - 2-0 bari home, ,3-3 Udinese home ( lead 2-1 and 3-2), and 2-0 Udinese away. Over 1.5 goals all matches.
UDINESE
RECENT HOME FORM - 5th v bottom and it's WWWWWDWD at home recently - nice and solid. 2 draws against 11th, and more worryingly, 19th ( as Bari are 20th) - that draw was a 0-0. Problems against struggling sides desparate for points?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWWDWWDW - no defeat in 10 for Udinese so they are meeting bottom side when in form.
Home form against bottom 3 though is a 1-0 win and 0-0 draw - hardly inspiring meeting the 3rd side of that triumvirate this afternoon.
GOAL TRENDS - 46% overs at home.
udinese have kept a clean sheet in last 4 matches.
Udinese have failed to score in only 1 of last 14, and that happened to be against 2nd from bottom at home last home match.
No spectacular goal trends.
STREAKS - No defeat in 11 at home and 10 overall.Opponent leads at half time in only 14.8% of games.

BARI
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWLLLL tells you why they are bottom. Away form against top 10?6 losses and a 2-2 draw v napoli - that came on 12th September 2010 and they are in great decline since then.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLDLD - 2 draws recently a sign of recovery?
Bothdraws came a home against 10th and 12th
GOAL TRENDS
Bari have only scored 4 in the first half of all matches this season. They have conceded 20 goals.
STREAKS - No win in 9. No draw in 8 away matches.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - I do not like Udinese's record against bottom 3 sides at home 1-0 win and 0-0 draw - it signals perhaps they cannot cope with strugglers' tactics?
Bari's goalscoring record in the first half means that Udinese are likely to score if there is a goal in the first half.



330pm - Ajax v AZ Alkmaar - 1.67 home - Ajax were great against Waalwijk but this is likely to be a lot more difficult.- in play -
HEAD TO HEADS - too tight for me to consider a bet in this match. It could go either way , so says the head to heads.





4pm - Betis v Las Palmas - 1.47 home - some familiarty with Betis so I include them here.- in play -3rd v 20th in the league
HEAD TO HEADS - 1-0 Betis home win, 1-1 Palmas home draw, 2-2 Palmas home draw.
Spanish 2nd tier and these head to heads make this a difficult match to read. betis have lost 5 of their last 7 matches so I think I will leave this 1.47 alone - they look layable if anything and with Las Palmas 5 draws in last 7, it's a no thanks from me,



4pm - Lyon v Arles - 1.2 home- in play - Lyon are in the Champions League so watch out for rested players. - 1-1 in sole head to head and Arles took the lead. 5th v bottom and 3 points for Lyon will take them provisionally 3rd on goal difference.
Only 1 loss in 18 for Lyon.
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWDWDW - no defeatin 9 at home. 2 draws and 2 wins at home to bottom 6 is a little inconsistent for me.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDDWLDWWD - only 3 wins in last 8 matches. Most recent did come against 17th placed Nancy at home and was emphatic at 4-0.
GOAL TRENDS - only 38% home matches over 2.5 goals.
Lyon have scored in 17 of their last 18 matches.
Only 28% of their goals are conceded at home.
Only 8 conceded and 19 scored in the first half this season.
STREAKS - 9 matches without defeat at home.
ARLES
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLLD - no wins away from home for Arles.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLDLLLDDD - no win in 13 matches.
Against top 8 away, Arles have lost all 6 matches they have played.
Overall against top 8 ( and remember Lyon are 5th), it's 10 losses and 2 draws - 2 draws were at home against Lyon and 6th placed Montpellier.
GOAL TRENDS - interestingly only 50/50 over 2.5 goals away from home. Arles do concede an average of 2 away.
And score an average of 0.33
Arles have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
Arles' last 4 matches have been under 2.5 goals. In fact, 8 of their last 10 matches have been under 2.5 goals. Arles have drawn their last 3 , albeit 2 at home.
Arles have scored only 7 in the first half and 6 in the 2nd half all season. Meanwhile they conceded 18 in the first half and 27 in the second half. They conceded 15 in the first quarter of an hour after halftime so if 0-0 at halftime, watch out!
Arles lead at halftime in only 12 % of their matches.
STREAKS - No win in 13, no win in 12 away.They have failed to score in a whopping 67% of away matches.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
Likely that Lyon are going to open the scoring in this match if there is to be a goal. Arles do not score many away from home which makes it more likely Lyon will get the goals. Concern with the Champions League this week so you must look for team news for Lyon. A weakened Lyon might see them vulnerable to an arles side with 3 consecutive draws, whose last 4 matches have been unders.





4pm - Wolves v Tottenham - 2.68 away - factor in the Champions league here and the must win for Wolves, as well as Wolves' form against big teams , hence the huge 2.68 for Spurs.- in play -
HEAD TO HEADS - Wolves 1-0 away win, Wolves 1-0 home win, Spurs 3-1 home win.
Add into the mix that Spurs have a Champions League match next week , sprinkle with a bit of Wolves beating Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd at home, and the fact Wolves need points desparately and we have a very unreadable match.
WOLVES
RECENT HOME FORM.
WWLWLWW - quite a suprise to me for a side 2nd from bottom to have won 5 at home of last 7 matches.- 3 wins out of 4 against the top 4 in the Premiership at home. 2-0 Loss v Arsenal.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWLLLWLDW - a little less consistent than the home form.
GOAL TRENDS - score 1.5 concede 1.35 at home on average. Wolves have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 7 matches and that was last home match 4-0 win over Blackpool.
64% home matches over 2.5 goals.
Wolves conceded a massive 14 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches.
STREAKS - No draw in 10 at home, and this should continue as Wolves need 3 points and Spurs are weakened today and have one eye on Champions League later on this week.
SPURS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWDWLDWWL - recent loss away to Blackpool and maybe signalled the impact the missing Van Der vaart and Bale have. Modric should be back today and Bale may be fit,.
Poor form against bottom 6 away from home - 3-1 loss to Blackpool, 1-1 draw West brom, 1-0 loss West Ham, 1-1 draw Brum.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLDDWWWL - only 2 losses recently were away against Everton and Blackpool.
GOAL TRENDS - Overs in Spurs last 3 matches.
Only once in the last 17 matches have Spurs failed to score a goal in a Premiership match and has as good a chance as any to score against Wolves.
Pay attention to the last 15 minutes of the match -Spurs have scored 11 and conceded 10
STREAKS - no draw in 4.

MY THOUGHTS - up in the air really as we do not know how Spurs will be with the Champions League match coming up. Spurs tend to score at least 1 goal and that is a good starting point. This is a match to watch to see how things progress and if Bale gets a run out.
Watch out for the 75th minute onwards , both sides concede plenty and Spurs have scored 10!




6pm - Sp Lisbon v Beira-Mar - 1.53 home- in play -
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 10th
HEAD TO HEADS WWWD for Sporting. But only one recent head to heads 1-1 away draw
SPORTING LISBON
RECENT HOME FORM - WLDWLDD - not the kind of home form in which I would be backing a 1.53 shot
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLLWDDLL - again the wheels seem to have fallen off recently
GOAL TRENDS - 7 matches over 2.5 goals ended in last 2 matches, one of which was a 2-0. 4 matches without a clean sheet. 14 of last 16 matches have seen Sporting score at least 1.
STREAKS - no streaks to speak of.


BEIRA - MAR
RECENT AWAY FORM DWDDDWDL - only one recent loss and look capable of exploiting a poorly out of form Sporting side at home? It certainly makes the 1.53 layable ? 1 loss v Porto and 2 losses against 13th and bottom side ( only 1-0) seems Beira in quite good away form.

RECENT FORM OVERALL DLDWDWLDDLL - inconsistent form overall. Only 2 wins in last 11.

GOAL TRENDS - only 36% of away matches over 2.5 goals.Beira have not scored in last 3.
STREAKS - no win in 5, last 3 matches unders

THOUGHTS - Sporting look vulnerable at present and layable at 1.53 where the liability is low.
8pm - Santander v Real Madrid - Real Madrid away about as trustworthy as a visit from Derek Trotter and Arthur Daley- in play -
LEAGUE POSITION 12th v 2nd -Must win as ever for Real Madrid with Barca continuing to win.
HEAD TO HEADS 6/6 clean sweep for Real Madrid scoring 2 and 6 in 2010 head to heads.
SANTANDER
RECENT HOME FORM - 3 draws and a 3-0 loss to Barca is the first thing that catches my eye about Racing''s home form.
DWDDDWD makes Racing exactly the kind of team that Real do not want to meet. Remember the Champions league factor this weekend for qualifying teams ( Real is one of course). Potential team changes with that in mind this evening?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDLLDDWWDD - again hard to beat.Both losses were away, Ath Bilbao and Barcelona.
GOAL TRENDS - only 33% home matches over 2.5 goals. Racing have failed to score in 1/3rd of their home matches. Racing have scored in their last6 matches
STREAKS - no defeat in 9 at home for Racing.

REAL MADRID
RECENT AWAY FORM WWDLWD - shown some recent vulnerability away from home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLWWWDW -unbeaten in 5 matches and clearly have a toughie away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - REal have only scored 2 in their last 4 away matches. Real have conceded only 7 in the first half this season.
STREAKS - Real have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches. No defeat in 5. The strong streaks are at home for Real.

THOUGHTS?
Looks a toughie for Real today and bear in mind the Champions League factor which sees Inter 1-0 down at half time, MAn Utd losing 3-0 - coincidence?
815pm - Braga v Benfica - 1.94 away - you know the stats - what is it now? 18 or 19 match winning streak and 45 or 46 matches without a draw for Benfica. They are away from home, near evens. This is the type of profile that may end this sequence, and in the last 2 matches it took a 90th minute winner on both occasions ( at home) to ensure the sequences continued.
Surely Benfica are nearing an end to these quite superb runs.- in play -

LEAGUE POSITION
HEAD TO HEADS
SPORTING LISBOn
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
LEAGUE POSITION
HEAD TO HEADS
BEIRA - MAR
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS

210 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 First In The Queue, 7/2 Robin De Creuse, 9/1 Morgan´s Bay, 10/1 Fontano, 14/1 That´s Mine, 16/1Kingaroo, 20/1 Archie Rice, 33/1 Sirjosh, 50/1 Backstreet Billy, 50/1 Dancing Belle, 50/1 Mick´s Dancer, 50/1 Rye Rocket, 66/1Abbotts Mount, 66/1 December, 66/1 Second Brook, 100/1 Two Tone.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Brampour looked in command when FIRST IN THE QUEUE was brought down at Taunton last month but there is nothing of that calibre in opposition here. Morgan's Bay could be a danger now that Tom George is back in form.[Stuart Redding]

Only 4 under 20/1 here.


300 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Cottrelsbooley, 4/1 Dilshaan´s Prize, 11/2 Four Commanders, 6/1 Mackeys Forge, 10/1 Torina, 25/1Nordic Hawk, 33/1 Loukaja.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The one-eyed COTTRELSBOOLEY relishes going left-handed and dropping down in class after his recent run in the Deloitte looks the pick of these with Listowel winner Dilshaan's Prize and Four Commanders the obvious dangers. [Brian Fleming]

Mullins, Townend and the One eyed horse. No, not a new concept album from Pink Floyd. 2 miles novice hurdle and 4/5 Mullins fav must be respected. Decent place odds as only 2 places.

500 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Lambro, 6/1 Caddy Man, 8/1 Crude, 8/1 Portrait King, 8/1 Rich Revival, 10/1 Brabazon, 10/1Casson, 10/1 Grancore Girl, 12/1 Jinglealltheways, 14/1 Toon River, 16/1 Indubitably, 16/1 Rubert, 25/1 Thetalkinsover, 33/1Tubberadora, 50/1 Dont Tell De Purty, 50/1 Eligible Bachelor, 50/1 Miss Amie, 50/1 Mkenzy, 50/1 Well Nigh, 66/1 Shakas Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a few with a chance of picking up a share of the money, but LAMBRO is the stand-out. He should account for the likes of Portrait King, Caddy Man and Crude. [Alan Sweetman]

Another Mullins/Townend fav here but a 3 mile maiden hurdle.

220 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Eighteen Carat, 2/1 Malin Bay, 4/1 Cloudy Too, 5/1 Skybull, 12/1 Blazing Bay, 33/1 Sam D´oc, 33/1 Soul Bid, 33/1 Tears From Heaven, 66/1 The Tiddly Tadpole, 100/1 Beau Peak, 100/1 Bunratty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Skybull wouldn't have to be anything out of the ordinary to make a winning debut, but otherwise MALIN BAY gets the vote ahead of the penalised Eighteen Carat.[Graham Wheldon]

Only 5 under 33/1 here and malin bay has currently wrestled favouratism.





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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

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