What a frustrating day. The markets I am keen on ( Zwolle over 1.5 goals) has no money in it as I write. This looks like a great bet today if the goaltrends are anything to go by.
I may have to turn to Thanks For Coming in the interim and hope McCoy nurses him to a place at a poor 1.12
*****345 WINCANTON - THANKS FOR COMING TO PLACE *****
6pm - LKS Lodz v Dolcan Zabki - 1.38 home - polish 2nd flight - not today thanks!!
7pm - Cambuur v Almere - 1.32 home - Cambuur have won the last 4 head to heads but only one when Almere were Almere and not Omniworld.
8th v 18th
CAMBUUR RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWLWD - only 1 loss at home recently against 3rd placed Helmond
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWLDWWWDDL -only 3 losses in last 12 against 1st, 3rd and 14th away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% of home matches over 2.5 goals.
Last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
7 of last 8 home matches over 2.5 goals and last 5 home matches on the trot. Have only failed to score once in last 9 matches.
STREAKS - no defeat in 2 at home.
ALMERE
REcent away form - LLLWLLDLW - last 2 wins were both away.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLDWLLLWL - -no draw in 6 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 77% of away matches over 2.5 goals. A whopping 3.38 goal average conceded away from home.
No clean sheets away this season so likely to concede at least 1
Almere's last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals and Cambuur's last 9 have been over 2.5 goals - pity this is not in running.
Almere have only kept one clean sheet all season.
Almere have scored in 6 of last 7 matches.
STREAKS - no draw in 6 matches,
7pm - Zwolle v Dordrecht - 1.37 home - in play -Dutch 2nd Division and an automatic look towards goals in a league averaging 3.5 goals per match.
HEAD TO HEADS - 3-5 Dordrecht away win, 3-0 zwolle away win, 2-1 Zwolle away win. These are the 2009/2010 head to heads. Last 5 head to heads have been over 2.5 goals.
1st v 10th
ZWOLLE
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWLWWW - the loss was 3-4 v Emmen, and like the 3-5 Loss to Dordrecht in head to heads, Zwolle lead at some stage. They led 2-0 and 3-1 in this match so traders would have profitted.
10 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat this season. Defeat seems to be down to not finishing the job once taking the lead. 3-1 should never produce a loss!!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLDWLDWWWW - a noticeable blip from 14th Jan to 4th Feb for Zwolle most uncharacteristic but I think we can emphatically say they are back - 4 wins on the trot attest to this, scoring 3,2,4,3.
GOAL TRENDS - 75% of home matches are over 2.5 goals. Zwolle average 3 goals per match at home and concede on average 0.66 - impressive figures and I think the highest average per match I have come across.
In 9/12 home matches, Zwolle have scored 3 or 4 goals - mighty impressive and mighty consistent.
Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches and in 4 of their last 5 matches.
3 of Zwolle's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals with the other a 2-0 Zwolle win.
9 of Zwolle's last 10 home matches have been over 2.5 goals with the only exception a 2-0 home win.
Zwolle have only failed to score in 3 matches all season and twice in that recent blip which they are now over it would seem
STREAKS - 11 matches at home without a draw - 3 matches at home without a defeat.
Zwolle look to be the ideal trading team - they lost 3-4 to Emmen but you would have been out at 3-1 to Zwolle ( and 2-0 of course to Zwolle if trading)
DORDRECHT
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDLDWWWL away recently for Dordrecht - a 3 match winning run, and 4 match unbeaten away run recently ended away to 13th placed Maastricht, which hints at an element of inconsistency as the wins were against 18th, 7th and 3rd placed ( 1-0 win)
Against the top 3 away, Dordrecht have won 2-1 against Waalwijk and 1-0 against Helmond. Coincidence? Something for Zwolle to worry about?
7 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats away - Dordrecht like playing away.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDWWWLWWLL- 8 matches without a draw and 3 wins on the trot most recently were away wins 1-0,1-0, 2-1. Are Zwolle meeting a rejuvenated Dordrecht away from home?
GOAL TRENDS - 77% of Dordrecht's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They concede an average of 1.76 goals away from home.
All of Dordrecht's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals. They have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 5 matches.
They have only failed to score in 2 of their last 23 matches and have scored in all of their last 9 matches.
STREAKS - is it concidence that against the 2nd and 3rd they lost 2-1 and 1-0 at home and won 2-1 and 1-0 away? They lost 2-1 at home to Zwolle - more to follow today?
No draw in 8 - no away draw in 4 matches.
745pm - Brescia v Inter - 1.69 away - in play - Italian League match on a Friday night! A new one on me.
HEAD TO HEADS - originate 2004 and 2005 - most recent is 2010 and a 1-1 draw at home to Inter where Brescia scored first and Inter only equalised with a penalty. Tough nuts to crack then these Brescia boys?
19th v 2nd OR 2nd bottom v 2nd top so points required by both sides for different reasons. 5 points behind AC Milan are Interand Brescia could move out of the relegation zone, albeit temporarily, with a win this evening.
NOTE - remember what I said about this time of year , points are needed by all which could lead to unexpected results. So bear that in mind this evening.
BRESCIA RECENT HOME FORM - DLDWLWLWLD - inconsistent at home and unable to string a winning/drawing sequence of more than 1 recently. Will this continue this evening considering they drew last time out?
Look at this inconsistency at home - conceded 2, scored 2 , conceded 3, scored 2, conceded 2, scored and conceded 2 in the same game.
Which Brescia will show up today?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWLLDWLDDD - 3 draws on the trot begins the push for points?Only 1 loss in last 6 a sign of renewed efforts?
GOAL TRENDS - Only 1 of Brescia's last 6 matches has been over 2.5 goals.
At home to top 5 sides, they have lost 1-0 ( 3rd placed Napoli), lost 2-0 ( 4th placed LAzio) and lost 1-0 (5th placed Udinese)
Yet to play the Milans at home.
Brescia have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 matches.
43% of their home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
16 goals have been scored in the first half of Brescia matches and an amazing total of only 6 have been scored in the 2nd half all season.
This hints at possibly backing Inter Milan if it is 0-0 at halftime if Brescia have only managed 6 goals in the 2nd half in 28 league matches!!!
2 0-0 draws in their last 3 matches for Brescia either side of a 2-2 again points at the inconsistency of the team.
STREAKS - no major home streaks - 12 matches away without a win, 4 matches in total without a win.
INTER MILAN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLWLWW - no draw in 8 away.
Losses away have pretty much come against top 7. Against bottom 7, they are unbeaten
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLWWWLWWWW - 18 matches without a draw. Recent away wins against 14th, 10th and bottom ( 3-0) could be replicated against 2nd bottom?
GOAL TRENDS - it's 50/50 for overs/unders away from home.
Inter have only failed to score twice in their last 17 matches.
Have only kept 3 clean sheets in last 19 matches.
Inter have scored 29 in the last half hour this season so if it looks like Inter are in trouble coming up to the 60 minute mark, take note.
STREAKS - no draw in 8 away, 18 in total.
745pm - St Patricks v Bray - 1.38 home - in play - first v 8th in a 10 team league - these small leagues can be dangerous betting mediums as there is a degree of familiarity between the teams. This being Ireland, the standard of football is about 1 or 2 levels above Sunday League and thus not a very dependable betting medium.
The new season is one match old and St Pats beat galway 3-1 away and Bray lost 3-1 at home to Bohs.
Make of this what you will.
2-0, 3-0, 2-0 for St Pats at home in head to heads v Bray.
5/6 in head to heads - 3-2 to Bray at home in August head to heads an anomoly or a sign that the Irish league is best left alone.
745pm - The New Saints v Prestatyn - 1.28 home
HEAD TO HEAD - 4-3, 4-1, 5-0, 1-0, 5-2, 0-0 head to heads - all Saints wins bar the 0-0 away at Prestatyn last year.
Priced to return to winning ways this evening.
WWWWDWDD overall recently in the league for New Saints and I suspect they can end that short draw sequence this evening despite the 0-0 with Prestatyn latest.
LWLDL for Prestatyn away ( not using soccerstats so cannot go indepth here) should be enough to convince us New saints will not lose at any rate.
WDWD latest for NEw saints at home. Last draw came after a penalty was awarded to New Saints opponents after New Saints got a man sent off. Having scored 4-4-5-5 in 4 of 6 most recent head to heads, you would think they are capable enough at home.
Not in play so if New Saints go ahead in the game and end up drawing then we have no way to lock in profit.,
745pm - Utrecht v Groningen - 1.75 home - in play - 8th against 5th, yet 8th are the favs. Interesting.
HEAD TO HEADS - difficult to weigh up as there were 2 play off matches which a wholly unique and basically down to the best performers on the day.
I get the feeling with this match that it will be unreadable. The head to heads don't allow me to get a real feel for the 2 teams.
UTRECHT RECENT HOME FORM
WLWWWDDD - unbeaten in 6 with 3 1-1 draws in their last 3 home matches. Only lost to PSV at home this season, hence I suppose the 1.75 quote today. 8th because of the draws I would suspect.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWWDDDDDD - unbeaten in 8 matches with 6 consecutive draws - surely this draw sequence will end eventually. 3 1-1's on the trot may make this 1-1 layable?
GOAL TRENDS - Utrecht have scored in all home matches this season so bear that in mind you traders when there's a 0 in the Utrecht column coming up to the end of the match.
Utrecht score on average 2.16 at home which is quite good.
Only 5 of their last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals simply because 4 of those matches were 1-1's which does not necessarily mean that over 2.5 goals as a trade was unsuccessful.
5 score draws on the trot.
67% of matches at home over 2.5 goals.
Utrecht have scored 17 goals in the first half hour - quick starters and conceded only 8 ( 3 in the first quarter of an hour)
Having not played 4th,5th,6th at home yet, it is hard to see how they fare against top 6 at home.
GRONINGEN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDWDL -only 2 wins recently make Groningen vulnerable.
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDWDL -only 2 wins recently make Groningen vulnerable.
Only 3 wins away all season and 2 of those wins came against bottom 2 sides.
Have played 4 of the top 7 away and not won - 2 draws and 2 losses.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDLWWDLLL - conceded 4,5,4 in last 4 losses - a sign of trouble at Groningen? 7th, 12th and 13th in the league.
GOAL TRENDS - score 1.83 and concede 2.08 away on average - some big averages there.
Have kept clean sheets in only 8% of away matches this season.
67% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Last half hour of matches have seen Groningen score 24 and concede 21 - watch out for late action given Utrecht have scored 13 in the last quarter of an hour this season.
STREAKS - 4 overall without a win, and 3 without a draw.
The key here is whether we are brave enough to lay the draw on account of the 6 draws on a trot for Utrecht.
TENNIS
BNP PARIBAS WOMEN'S 2nd ROUND
7pm - kudryavtseva v Clijsters - Kim is 1.02 so look to set betting 2-0 at around 1.17 - very illiquid market though. 1.12 with Ladbrokes so bolsters the odds somewhat.
SOFT GROUND AT AYR
245 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cool Mission, 4/1 Steady Tiger, 9/2 Kingsmoss, 6/1 Ballymacduff, 33/1 The Skanky Farmer.
A beginners chase and should involve 4 horses for 2 places. Chance on Cool Mission here?
But beginners and ground are not quite what I would describe as the ideal
305 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Swansbrook, 2/1 Khorun, 10/1 Society Fashion.
3 for 2 places and Khorun the obvious value alternative to Swansbrook who, in this beginners chase, does have the experience over chase fences.
440 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Turko, 5/2 Mister Apple´s, 11/2 Ultimate Limit, 9/1 Honour´s Dream, 14/1 I Hear Thunder, 14/1 Macs Lad, 20/1 Seymar Lad, 100/1 Beluga.
Hunter chase but 8 runners and 3 places and 2 horses 25/1 and over should make this 6 runners and 3 places and only 4 horses under 12/1 here.
345 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Thanks For Coming, 2/1 Bold Addition, 5/1 Sizing Santiago, 10/1 Taminkle, 12/1 Abayaan, 25/1Fresher Fishing, 25/1 Reymysterio, 33/1 San Salito, 66/1 Artic Journey.
This should concern only three with bumper winner SIZING SANTIAGO, on debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies, given a chance to show his debut running over hurdles to be all wrong. Thanks For Coming is the danger, looking more reliable than Bold Addition.
Only 3 under 16/1 here and McCoy on the fav who has been close twice and has hurdling experience.
Looks an ideal place only race this one.
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gottany O´s, 6/4 Indochina, 8/1 Stetson, 20/1 Hopes Up, 33/1 Aimee Tricks, 66/1 Rapacious, 100/1 Roxy Spirit.
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gottany O´s, 6/4 Indochina, 8/1 Stetson, 20/1 Hopes Up, 33/1 Aimee Tricks, 66/1 Rapacious, 100/1 Roxy Spirit.
3 under 20/1 here but 2 places and a maiden and yet again we saw yesterday that the market changes from when viewed early morning to race time early evening so we must view it 710pm or thereabouts as it is folly making a decision now.
750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Erinjay, 4/1 Grand Vizier, 6/1 Esteem Lord, 14/1 Nevada Desert.
Strong fav albeit in a seller.
SHORTLIST
7pm - Cambuur v Almere - 1.32 home - alas illiquid on Betfair, not in running and only match odds and over 2.5 goals.
7pm - Zwolle v Dordrecht - 1.37 home - this match should have goals in it, and as a usually cautious sort, over 1.5 goals would interest, but the betting market on Betfair is poor £61 matched in this market for instance. I hope it gets better nearer the off. Over 1.5 goal
s is as low as 1.12 with Bet365. I hope we can eek out a bit more from Betfair as the market gets more liquid nearer to 7pm.
Lay the draw perhaps? 11 without a draw at home for Zwolle and no draw in 8 for Dordrecht, with no away draw in 4.
1.21 odds equivalent if laying the draw at 5.7
745pm - Brescia v Inter - 1.69 away - Inter are in rock solid form lately. Lay the draw as they have only won or lost in last 18 matches? At 3.95 it is the same as a 1.33 back bet.
Brescia could be a tight team to play against this evening.
1.32 under 3.5 goals has a realistic chance of success.
745pm - The New Saints v Prestatyn - 1.28 home - comprehensive in head to heads for the New Saints and they should gain another win tonight. Concern with the lack of liquidity again in this match ( at time of writing )
305 LEICESTER - Swansbrook obvious choice here to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places. Khorun is the value alternative at 1.3 to place. A beginners chase and the fav has had the important experience.
345 WINCANTON - Thanks for coming a disappointing 1.12 to place. Bold Addition is the likely alternative at 1.25 to place but a recent 7th when 7/2 fav is slightly worrisome about him
The Wolves races need to be viewed nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The markets are disappointingly illiquid for the bets I want to entertain today.
7pm - Zwolle v Dordrecht - 1.37 home - Zwolle definitely have the winning thread back after their recent hiccup.
Over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 goals appeal ( with added bonus we can trade) but no money in these markets at present - I would be interested nearer the off if the markets get liquid on Betfair.
Both sides scream out goals.
745pm - Brescia v Inter - 1.69 away - lay Brescia at 6.8 is around a 1.17 back bet. Backing under 3.5 goals has a chance at 1.33 ( another illiquid market) -the 3-0 away win over Bari was care of 2 90 minute Inter goals)
I would have to insist on trading these markets.
345 WINCANTON - thanks for coming looks primed to place here with a clear round.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
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