Wednesday 30 March 2011

30/3

2 horses races and one Copa Libertadores match today for me. A toughie. Dubai Crest with McCoy onboard should place in a 7 runner race where only 4 are under 16/1 and 2 are 40/1 and 100/1.
e Street Boy is the best price gapper of the day , and quite standout 1/2 - - - -- 7/1 but is up in trip in a slightly more competitive race.
Analysis of last race "he should prove very hard to stop following up."

*****ONE A DAY 410 HEREFORD - BACK E STREET BOY TO PLACE ONLY - 1.23 CURRENTLY AVAILABLE - DON'T GO UNDER 1.2 -IF SO USE BETFAIR SP*****

i hope for a clear round at least and a competitive run before the handicapper catches hold.



Sweden won 2-1, although it was 2-0 for 89 minutes, and a missed penalty for Sweden made for a comfortable night.

735pm - England U16 v Scotland U16 - 1.58 home - this is an international friendly and unless you know about England's real nippers then leave well alone. 2010 head to heads postponed and England won in 2008 and 2009 2-0 and 2-1 so perhaps goals a safer bet in a friendly ( or safer still leave friendlies alone)
England have won their last 8 matches at home which is a decent record. Form for Scotland is sparce.

745pm - Motherwell v Dundee Utd - 2.74 home - this is a Scottish Cup match so really any league form analysis is redundant. The fact the favourite is 2.74 should also recount that this is a tricky one to pick a winner.
2-2 in the Cup on 13th March. Not a match I can get an angle into.

0150am - Internacional v Jorge Wilstermann - 1.14 home- on 16th March Internacional won 4-1 , hence the shorter price at home. 2 teams from different leagues meeting in the Copa Libertadores, so go with the head to heads and odds if you want an interest here. Over 2.5, 3.5 goals?
NOT IN PLAY
4pm - France U17 v Belarus U17 - 1.24 home - a qualifier so you can expect this to mean something. Not in play though - only illiquid match odds market and over/unders markets available,
These 2 last met March 2009 when Belarus got a man sent off after 52 minutes and ended losing 3-0.
I only have very basic form to go on care of www.futbol24.com
Reasonable form in friendlies for France but let's focus on meaningful matches they have played in the Euro qualifiers.
WDLWD in the 5 matches they have played, against Slovenia, Cyprus, Italy, georgia, Norway.
Belarus have played 5 qualifiers , 3 in September 2010 and 2 in March 2011. In between they played a number of friendlies and generally lost.
Again let's focus on those 5 matches - WWLLW - against Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Romania, Norway and a 1-0 win over Georgia.
The collateral form is against Norway where France drew 2-2 after being 2-1 infront, and Belarus were beaten 5-1 after taking a 1-0 lead.

745pm - Eastwood Town v Hyde - 1.43 home now in play where before it wasn't- conference match - head to heads WLW for home team so a little conflicting with that 2010 Hyde win. But recent form may explain why Eastwood are strong favourites.
WLDWWWWWWDW recent overall form. 7 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
DWWWWW at home in the league says it all really. - again 5 of the last 6 matches at home have been over 2.5 goals.
LWWDLLLLWLLD for hyde in their last 12 matches overall. Only 2 wins and only 1 win and 1 draw in their last 8 matches.
6 of their last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals with 2 exceptions, a 2-0 loss and a 0-0 last match.
Interesting Hyde form away from home in 2011 - WLWWLWLD - hugely contrasting. 2 of the wins though came against bottom 4 sides.


Turf flat at Catterick and best left alone this early in the flat season.

210 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dubai Crest, 7/2 Raya Star, 4/1 Swift Lord, 5/1 Nobunaga, 13/2 Furrows, 12/1 Dashing Doc, 40/1 Drumlang, 100/1 Dark Haven.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A competitive novice hurdle. DUBAI CREST looked useful when readily off the mark at Huntingdon and is taken to follow up with Tony McCoy now in the saddle. Old rival Swift Lord may give him most to do. [Dave Orton]


Furrows is a non runner. This is a 7 runner race for 3 places and so is of interest from the place only perspective.

Only 4 horses under 16/1 here we would hope will fight out the 3 places with Dubai Crest of obvious interest under McCoy.

310 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Balthazar King, 13/8 Quartz De Thaix, 4/1 Cottage Flyer, 16/1 Acrai Rua.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cottage Flyer is progressive, but this looks to be between BALTHAZAR KING and Quartz De Thaix, with narrow preference for the former returning from a break. [Dave Orton]

3 under 16/1 and 2 places -probability race but a novices chase so you takes your chance!!

410 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 E Street Boy, 7/1 The Composer, 9/1 Septos, 12/1 Body Gold, 14/1 Monty´s Moon, 16/1Any Given Moment, 16/1 Artic Pride, 25/1 The Wee Midget, 50/1 Beau Colonel, 66/1 Roi De Garde, 80/1 Sheezatreasure, 100/1 All The Fashion, 150/1 Dancing Legend.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: E STREET BOY was an effortless winner at Wincanton on Sunday and, although this is a bit more competitive, barring accidents he should go in again off the same mark. The Composer is next best. [Dave Orton]

Biggest price gapper of the day here 1/2 - - - - 7/1 and one of those handicap favourites expected to repeat emphatic win off the same mark. Spotlight tells us " barring accidents" for this handicap hurdle.

500 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Choral, 5/1 Beautiful Lando, 5/1 Spartan Spirit, 33/1 Court Applause, 50/1 Ede´sajolygoodfelo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Choral sets the standard and wouldn't be winning out of turn, but this easy 7f isn't sure to be what she wants and she could be worth taking on at the likely odds. SPARTAN SPIRIT was last of 14 on his Newbury debut last season but he didn't run as badly as that would suggest and he should fare much better this year.[Paul Smith]

great to see the big guns back, in Ryan Moore and kieren fallon. Moore takes Hannon's mount Choral who is now 1/5 and he is the kind of jockey you want to see on a jolly! 1/5 - - - -5/1 I would suspect it is a case of win only here although the place only price is likely to be reasonable with only 2 places and this being a maiden. 151 day absence a little bit of a niggle.


SHORTLIST

A day to tread very carefully with , as the flat season takes shape and horses return from long absences and maidens feature horses with no form at all.

Football wise it is difficult to.

0150am - Internacional v Jorge Wilstermann - 1.14 home - 4-1 away win should signal a repeat at home in the Copa Libertadores. Not much else to go on apart from the head to heads and the market. Over 1.5 goals at 1.12 includes both teams ( and Jorge will need to win) - questionable motivation from Internacional? I am not sure as I don't know the lay out of the Copa Libertadores.

210 HEREFORD - Dubai Crest has a reasonable chance of placing with the Champion Jockey onboard. 1.28 to place in a 7 runner race with 3 places and 2 guaranteed outsiders priced at 40/1 and 100/1 reducing the field to 5 runners for 3 places. Clear rounds as ever should suffice.


410 HEREFORD - E Street Boy is the most impressive price gapper of the day and is 1.23 to place which is a surprise for a 1/2 - - - - 7/1 shot. Tougher and up in trip but this Pipe/Scudamore horse's price gap is very enticing.





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