I was angry with Betfair that Cambuur's game was suddenly put in play when it wasn't when I wrote the blog. I dismissed this match as it was not in play!. They won with ease.
With Cheltenham just around the corner, the likelihood is that the racing will be sub standard, especially over the jumps.
*****ONE A DAY - 5pm Trabonspor v Kasimpasa - back over 1.5 goals at 1.24.***** The market is illiquid at present but should flesh out as we approach 5pm.
It is an interesting day and I think this has the best chance of coming in. Real madrid obvious but with Champions League looming, there may be changes.
12pm - Flora v Tammeka - 1.22 home -in play - Estonian top flight - these 2 last met in 2006 so head to heads redundant. Looks like Tammeka are returning to the top flight as their matches go back to 2006 /2007 and then 2011 one league match which they drew 2-2.
Flora won their only match on their return 1-0 away with an 87th minute winner. Not too convincing.
Another league where we have not proper form to go on.
1245pm - Birmingham v Bolton - 2.64 away - in play - another match which is tight in the betting market.
17th v 7th - Brum are level with West Ham and 4 points from bottom place.
HEAD TO HEADS - 2-1 Bolton away win, 2-1 Bolton home win, 2-2 Bolton home draw
Another match where we have a team desparate for 3 points against a safe Bolton side who will just be treading water with a win.
BIRMINGHAM
RECENT HOME FORM - DDLDDWLL - only 1 win at home recently tells you why they are where they are. No longer the tough to beat at home team of previously. The 2 losses should perhaps be put in the context that they were either side of the Carling Cup Final. Wouldn't it be a thing if the Carling Cup is what ultimately sends Brum down?
The win at home was wholly unimpressive, a 1-0 90th+ minute winner from Zigic against Stoke.
Against top 6 at home ( and remember Bolton are 7th) we see the stubborness that Brum are known for at home.
1-1 Man Utd, 3-0 loss Arsenal , 2-2 man City, 1-0 Win Chelsea, 1-1 Spurs, 0-0 Liverpool.
Some good results with only one loss v Arsenal.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLWDLDWWLLD - not enough wins, the 2 wins were 1-0's and thanks to Zigic.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals at home. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
Have scored in 7 of last 9 matches.
Only 2 clean sheets in last 14 matches - those 2 happened to be 1-0 wins.
15 goals conceded in the first quarter hour of the 2nd half.
Only 9 goals scored in the first half all season.
STREAKS - no draw in 3 matches at home. Between 3rd and 8th home and away 6 draws and a 1-0 win - any coincidence with so many draws.
BOLTON
RECENT FORM AWAY - LLLLLLD - says it all recently about Bolton away - Sturridge looks to be a great signing for Bolton.Unbeaten against bottom 8 home and away. DDWWD against bottom 8 away from home - draws all 1-1's so it seems Bolton can handle the lower clubs.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWLLDLLWLWDW - inconsistent form overall but a sign that Bolton are ticking over with 3 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 5 matches. any coincidence the wins came at home?
GOAL TRENDS - Have kept no clean sheets away from home. 36% away matches over 2.5 goals.
Scored 1 , conceded 1.5 on average away from home per match.
Bolton love the last half hour ( must drink some of Stevie G's Lucozade) - scored 24 goals in the last half hour and conceded 13 in the last quarter of an hour. Bolton have scored in all of their last 5 matches. Have conceded in 8 of last 10 - those 2 matches were at home where they kept the clean sheets.
STREAKS - no win in 7 away matches.
NOTE - another match featuring a team in the bottom 8 who must win. Is Zigic playing? If not, this will greatly disadvantage Brum. With Bolton only scoring 5 in the first half hour, and Birmingham 9 in the first half all season, expect a quiet start?
There are no real standout stats or streaks at present for me bar Bolton's run away without a win. Watch out, though , with new signing Daniel Sturridge.
1pm - Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Sliven - 1.13 home - another Bulgarian top flight match and I have told you already about leagues returning from Winter Break. DW for Plovdiv and LW for Sliven (1-0's)
Head to heads point at tightness between these 2. 3 1-1's, a 1-0 win, and 2 2-1 scorelines ( one for Sliven)
Why are Plovdiv 1.13? Are Sliven playing blindfolded? Not in play . If this was in play, I would lay Plovdiv initially.
230pm - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 1.91 away - well worth checking out Dortmund as they look to be in the groove.
9th against 1st
HEAD TO HEADS - 0-0 Dortmund home, 1-2 Dortmund away win, 1-1 Dortmund home draw, 1-1 Dortmund home draw. - Dortmund are certainly not losing . And Hoff are keeping it tight.
HOFFENHEIM RECENT HOME FORM - LDDDWDL - only 1 win recently at home was a 3-2 against Kaiserslautern.
Against top 8 sides at home
- playing today
- 2-2 draw Leverkusen
- 4-0 win hannover
- 1-2 Loss Mainz
- 1-2 Loss Bayern
- 1-1 draw Nurnberg
- not played
- 1-0 loss Freiburg
What do we make of that anomolous 4-0 win? It happened 31st October. Generally thogh, losses against 3, draws against 2.
HOFFENHEIM RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDDDLDWWLDLL - only 2 wins recently against 11th and 17th. It would seem then, that a draw is the best we can hope from the Hoff today?
GOAL TRENDS - score 2 and concede 1.33 ah home on average. 67% of home matches over 2.5 goals.
Have conceded in last 5 and only kept a clean sheet in one of last 12.
Have only failed to score in 2 of last 13 matches,
All losses recorded at home have come against the top 8.#
STREAKS - No win in 4, no win in 2 at home. No signficant streaks.
DORTMUND RECENT AWAY FORM - 11 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and they look a tasty 1.91 don't they?
WWWLWWDW - great away form and those sole draws and defeats have come in last 5 away matches against Frankfurt ( 87th minute goal) and Kaiserslautern ( 2nd from bottom 2 goals in last 8 minutes - 82nd minute Dortmund goal and 90th minute Kaiser equaliser).
1-2, 1-2, 1-3 against teams around Hoff in the league, and the market price of 1.91 indicates this will not be a rout and at best a hard fought 1 goal win for dortmund.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDWDDWWW - the majority of lost point matches have come in the last 9 matches with 3 of the 4 draws they have had all season and one of the 2 defeats they have had all season.
3 recent wins on the bounce include the 3-1 away win over Bayern which ended their season. If Dortmund click, you fear for the Hoff.
GOAL TRENDS - score on average 2.38 goals away from home per match. 69% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Have only conceded 7 in the first half and 7 in the 2nd half all season.
6 of those in the 2nd half came in the last quarter of an hour.
33 scored in the 2nd half.
Dortmund score first in 76% of the matches - 3 in 4!
The opponents lead at half time in only 12% of matches.
STREAKS - no defeat in 8 matches overall.
NOTE - the very fact that Dortmund concede so few goals ( 7 in first half and 7 in 2nd half - 6 of those last quarter of an hour) must make them a team to have on our side in some way. They score first in 3/4's of matches - back to lay material today?
1pm - Pirin Blagoevg v Litex Lovech - 1.34 away - Bulgarian Top flight and we have to consider the return from the Winter Break which means there ain't much solid to go on.
HEAD TO HEADS - inconclusive - 3-0 home win Litex Cup, 3-0 away win Litex, 1-0 Pirin away win, 4-1 Pirin Home win, 2-1 Litex home win - This Pirin lot have been holding their own in head to heads which is a slight concern given we are only 2 matches into the domestic season after the break.
Litex have scored 2-2-2-3-4 - the 3 and 4 were league matches, those prior were friendlies.
They have not conceded yet in their 2 domestic matches.
Pirin have lost 1-0 in their 2 league matches.
Go with the small sample of form or leave this well alone?
230pm - B Munich v Hamburg - 1.57 home - I said it last week that Bayern might be fragile at the moment mentally having their season dismantled in 2 easy matches. Bayern have lost their last 3 matches.
HEAD TO HEADS - 4 1-0's and a 0-0 in their last 5 encounters - Hamburg home win, Hamburg away win, Hamburg home win,Bayern home win, 0-0 Hamburg home draw.
Tight AND CONSISTENTLY TIGHT head to heads, not just the odd match.And these are all 2009 and 2010 matches so are relevant.
5th v 7th so another tight match expected?
BAYERN RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWL - the loss was nothing to be ashamed of , a 3-1 loss to Dortmund, the league leaders, and those reading my research of that match will know it was not a surprise.
3,4,3,4,3,5,4, scored at home prior to the single goal against Dortmund. What we need to weigh up is whether Bayern were really going for it as they were in the title race. Now they are well out of the title race, will they still be motivated to scoring those 3+ goals at home.
The whole dynamic has changed again. The only losses for Bayern at home have come against 1st and 4th in the league.
Against 6th, 8th and 9th, ( and remember Hamburg are 7th) Bayern at home have won 3-0, 4-2,, 4-0.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDWWLWWLL - 2 losses on the bounce now, 1 after the loss which ended the title hopes.
GOAL TRENDS - 83% of home matches over 2.5 goals. 50% of home matches clean sheets for Bayern so they have been doing the overs themselves.
Last 7 matches all over 2.5 goals.
9 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals.
Last 9 home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Bayern score an average 2.5 goals at home ( at least they did before they knew they were out of the title)
Bayern have scored 15 in the last quarter of an hour.
Bayern have only failed to score once in last 16 matches.
8 of Bayern's last 9 matches have been over 3.5 goals.
STREAKS - 9 home matches without a draw - 7 matches on the trot without a draw.
Would like to see Gomez play as he has scored 11 at home.
HAMBURG -
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWWLWD - reasonable recent away form for a side who keep Bayern from scoring 1 consistently in head to heads. The loss came against 6th placed Nurnberg. In fact against top 6, Hamburg have lost 2-0 to Dortmund, 3-2 to 3rd placed Hannover, and won 1-0 at Mainz.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWWWLWLWDL - recent inconsistency after a nice run of 3 consecutive wins.
GOAL TRENDS - 38% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Only 2 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.
Hamburg have only scored 11 in the first half all season and only 2 in the first quarter of an hour all season. Lay them in the first quarter of an hour?
Hamburg only lead at half time in only 16% of their matches so are they layable in the Half time market ( which is in play?)
70% of Hamburg's goals are scored in the 2nd half.
STREAKS - no defeat in 2 away - good home streak but nothing really away.
My concern here rests on how motivated Bayern are against a side whose last 5 head to heads were either 1-0 or 0-0 , all under 1.5 goals.
REmember the time of the season. " Dead Rubber" matches will appear from time to time where teams have nothing really to play for. European competition I suppose for Bayern ?
3pm - Brighton v Tranmere - 1.43 home - this is an UNMANAGED in play market and I think there is no suspending of markets after a goal/red card. - I am familiar with Brighton so will take a look here.
1st v 18th
HEAD TO HEADS - 0-0 Brighton draw , 2-1 Tranmere home win, 3-0 Brighton home win, 1-1 Brighton away draw. Brighton are priced top replicate the recent 3-0 home win in 2010.
BRIGHTON RECENT HOME FORM - 12 wins and 4 draws at home this season. WWDDWWWWWW -6 match winning streak. 5,3,2,4,4,4 should be renamed Brightonalona with that kind of goalscoring home form.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWDWWWLWWW - 6 wins in last 7 matches is very good form.
GOAL TRENDS - have scored in all home matches. 62% over 2.5 goals.
Average 2.5 goals scored at home, the highest I have come across so far was 3 for Zwolle, and they drew 0-0 yesterday ( you couldn't make it up!)
Have only failed to score in one of their last 7 matches.
3 of the last 4 matches have been 1-0 scorelines with an anomolous 4-3 v Carlisle.
Have conceded only 9 goals in the first half this season while scoring 24. In the 2nd half they have scored 37, and conceded a relatively big 10 goals in the last quarter hour , so traders sort it out by the 75th minute.
STREAKS - no draw at home in 6, no defeat at home in 16 matches.
No draw in 7 overall.
Would need to see Murray and Barnes playing as they are the highest scorers at home.
TRANMERE
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDLLDD - inconsistent away from home. 7 losses and 3 draws against top 16 away from home, and we would not expect a win from Tranmere today but cannot discount the draw because of the head to heads.
Tranmere have scored first in 4 iof their last 5 away matches - significant because they have not won any of them ( enhanced bettors sitting up now?)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWWLLLDDL - a decent spell unbeaten ends with 4 losses in last 6 matches. The 2 recent draws were 1-1 draws.
GOAL TRENDS - concede 1.47 on average away from home.
Last 4 matches have been under 2.5 goals.
Have conceded in each of the last 6 matches.
have failed to score in 2 of last 9 matches.
TEnd to concede and score regularly throughout the 90 minutes but concede most in last 15 minutes.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win, 6 in total.Have score drawn last 2 away matches.
I suspect Brighton will continue along their merry way this afternoon. An unmanaged market means you must keep an eye on the scorelines and react as i think there will be no suspending. Niggle regarding the possibility of a draw? Tranmere have scored first in 4 of their last 5 matches and yet not won them, which means that if Tranmere score first today, then lay them /Back Brighton for a hopefully enhanced bet.
The amount of goals Brighton have been scoring at home recently reminds me of those recent matches where I dismissed recent form in favour of head to heads.
Here we could take the recent form above the head to heads in this instance?
3pm - Nottm Forest v Doncaster - 1.65 home
6th v 17th
HEAD TO HEADS - 2010 head to heads have been tight. 1-0 Donny home win, 1-1 Donny home draw.
NOTTS FOREST RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWDWWWWDL - form has been strong bar the last 2 matches. The loss was against 9th in the league and only 1-0
Against 16th - 21st at home, Notts Forest have won the lot, and remember Doncaster are 17th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDLWDDDLL - no win in last 5 matches - is the pressure getting to Forest. It has seeped into their last 2 home matches as well.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% of home matches over 2.5 goals - have kept clean sheets in exactly 1/3rd of home matches.
Forest are strongest in last quarter of an hour of both halves scoring 10 and 12 goals.
Forest have kept a clean sheet once in last 8 matches.
STREAKS - 2 at home without a win. 5 matches overall without a win.
DONCASTER
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLLDWL - not too hot away - the win was against 19th placed Derby County
Against the top 8 away from home , and remembering Forest are 6th, scorelines have been
1 3-0 loss QPR
2 3-0 loss Swansea
3 1-1 Draw Norwich
4 4-0 Loss Cardiff
5 5-2 loss Leeds
6 to play today
7 1-1 Draw Burnley
8 4-3 loss Reading.
Consistently struggling and plenty of goals. - 2 draws 1 recently against Norwich needed an own goal to help Donny.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWLLLLDDWLD - 2 wins only in 13 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 72% of away matched over 2.5 goals. Because Donny concede on average 2.27 goals away.
Donny have conceded in all of the last 9 matches and scored in all of their last 5 matches.
STREAKS - Donny have conceded a massive 35 goals in the last 1/2 hour of their matches.
3 of their 4 away wins came against bottom 6 sides.
Donny's record against the top 8 really stands out, don't you think? As does the concession of 35 goals in the last half hour of their matches this season. 0-0 in the 60th minute - you know what to do!!!!!
3pm - QPR v C Palace - 1.53 home - 1st v 24th in the league -you would think QPR could consolidate at home
HEAD TO HEADS - 0-0 at Palace, 0-0 at QPR, 1-1 at QPR, 0-2 QPR AWAY WIN , 1-2 QPR AWAY WIN .
Note this is a London Derby, innit. It is likely to have its fair share of bookings.
QPR RECENT HOME FORM - firstly QPR have only lost 4 matches all season, 3 were away to 3rd , 5th and 12th Millwall local derby) and only home loss was via Watford 3-1, back on 10th December.
12 wins , 5 draws , 1 defeat at home.
WWWLWDWWDWW - nice recent unbeaten run and 4 wins in last 5 matches.
Against the bottom 5 at home ( where Palace currently preside) it's 3 wins 3-0, 2-0, 3-1. Resounding victories.
Now I foresee an added factor here and that is the London factor (innit).
For instance, against Millwall at home 0-0 draw and away 2-1 loss for QPR.
2-1 away win for QPR at Palace is another tight enough match. Will the local rivalry be a factor or will this go with the form?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDWDWWDDWWWL - loss at Millwall not really unexpected given the rivalry. Only lost 2 of last 13 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - Only 1 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals ( quite a surprise to me)
Last few home matches ( u = under 2.5 goals and o = over 2.5 goals)
OOOOOOUUUU - interesting the sudden shift to unders in each of the last 4 home matches
QPR average 2 goals scored per home match.
56% overs at home unspectacular and inconclusive.
QPR have scored a massive 39 goals in the 2nd half - 18 in the last quarter of an hour - they fight to the end it would seem.
Taarabt scored 12 of his 15 this season at home so should play if considering a goals bet.
7 wins out of 10 against bottom 10 sides athome. QPR scored 2 or more in each of those matches.
STREAKS - 7 home matches without defeat.
CRYSTAL PALACE - LLLDLLDLLL is pretty conclusive RECENT AWAY FORM. 14 defeats, 3 draws and a single win away from home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDDWLWLDLW - 6 of those matches have been 1-0's 2 matches were 0-0's and one match was a 1-1. 8 of those matches under 1.5 goals.
Inconsistent form from Palace. In the 13 matches overall that they have played home and away against top 8 sides, Palace have only won 2 matches, lost 7 and drawn 4.
Lost 5, drawn 1 and won one against top 8 away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - Palace concede 2.16 goals away from home.
2/3rd of their away matches are over 2.5 goals. Only 2 of Palace's last 10 matches were over 2.5 goals.
Palace have kept clean sheets in just 6% of their away matches.
Palace have conceded 35 goals in the 2nd half this season.
STREAKS - 12 away matches without a win. Current losing streak away of 3 matches. 5 1-0's in their last 7 matches might signal that Palace are tough to beat.
4pm - Levski Sofia v Chernomorets B - 1.28 home - Chernomorets have won 3 friendly latest) and drawn 1 of the last 4 head to heads, and you want me to back Levski Sofia at 1.28 - you're having a giraffe mate. We are only 2 matches into the new Bulgarian season. Both teams have played CSKA Sofia - Levski lost 3-1 at home and Cherno lost 4-0 at home.
Levski look layable if 1.28 to lay don't they? Liability is minimised and there is an argument that Cherno can hold their own.
I am not going to do indepth research as this league is only 2 matches in after the Winter Break.
5pm - Trabzonspor v Kasimpasa - 1.29 home - 2nd ( well equal top but demoted to 2nd as Fenerbahce have 1 goal + difference!) pays bottom and this 1.29 looks fairly big and thus well worth investigating.
HEAD TO HEADS - 2009 Kasimpasa home win 3-1, Trab home win 2-0 and Trab away win 7-0. Something has obviously got awry with Kasimpasa since 2009 and something has obviously improved with Trab since 2009.
Quite obviously, Trab are now aware that they need to win, and they will also be aware more than ever of the importance of scoring and conceding goals from now on. It's just too tight between Trab and Fenerbahce.
TRABONSPOR
RECENT HOME FORM - 7 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat at home this season so far and the loss came on 17th September and can safely be discounted as being of no consequence to current form.
WWDWWDDD - pressure telling last 3 matches? Trab were 1-0 up and 2-1 up in their 3-3 draw with Kayserispor. And they were 1-0 up against Ankaragucu before drawing 1-1. Signs that Trab are back to lay tradeable?
So, in 2 of those 3 draws, Trab were leading.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWWWWDLDWWDW - sandwiched between those home draws recently was a 2-0 away loss at Fenerbahce,
Against the bottom 5 home and away, Trab have won the lot.
GOAL TRENDS - it's 50/50 over/unders at home for Trab. They average 2.08 scored at home and 0.91 conceded. Last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Indeed in their last 4 matches, Trab have conceded and scored in each match.
STREAKS - no defeat in 9 matches at home.
KASIMPASA -
RECENT AWAY FORM - 1 win, 3 draws and 7 defeats away for Kasimpasa.That away win came on 13th FEb against 10th placed side .
LLDDLLWL - some semblance of resistance with the 2 draws and win in last 6 matches remember only 1 win and 3 draws away all season)
Recent away draws came against 6th placed Besiktas ( quite impressive) and 2nd from bottom Konyaspor.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLWWLL - no draw in 10 matches . Wins came against 10th away and 12th at home.
GOAL TRENDS - concede 2.09 goals away from home. Have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of away matches.
73% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
5 of the last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Have only kept one clean sheet in last 22 matches indicates, of course, they will concede at some point , especially again the league leaders.
Have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches. Recently lost away to Fenerbahce 2-0 so expectation is that Trab should be able to do similar.
2-0 and 2-1 away losses to the top 3 for Kasimpasa.
0-0 and 1-1 draws against 5th and 6th in the league must be noted away for Kas - they can stifle if they put their minds to it.
4 of Kasimpasa's last 5 away matches have been over 2.5 goals. The only one not was a 2-0.
STREAKS - no draw in 1 matches.No draw away in 4 matches.
515pm - Man Utd v Arsenal - 2-12 home - FA Cup match and a likelihood for a traditionally tight early period here? After a European week, you know all about the perils of one off matches. Psychologically, Arsenal will not want to lose, as the wheels are coming off their season quite quickly. I will not do any analysis here as it will serve no purpose suffice to say go with your opinion in these one off Cup matches. Personally I would be on the side of unders initially.
515pm - Wisla Krakow v Widzew Lodz - 1.61 home - top v 10th - available at soccerstats so worth doing a decent analysis on this one.
HEAD TO HEADS - last 3 matches ( cup match latest) have been 1-0 Wisla wins which immediately makes the 1.61 layable initially in this in play match.
Maybe not, seeing as only 2 matches have been played since the Winter Break.
Best to leave it until these Poles have a few more competitive league matches and RECENT stats to work off.
545pm - Heracles v Excelsior - 1.45 home - Dutch top flight sees 12th v 16th and you would not normally see such a short priced team in the bottom 1/3rd of the table. This indicates that Excelsior are far from excelling.
HEAD TO HEADS- only one bot of real recent form is 2010 and an Excelsior home win 2-1 after going 1-0 down to Heracles.
Previous head to heads were 2008 and earlier.
HERACLES
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWWDDWW - only one loss in last 9 matches -you want to know why they are 12th with home form like this? It's because they have lost 10 away matches.
Only one defeat at home for Heracles has come against Ajax - 4-1. 80% of their points are earned at home.
They have drawn 2-2 with 17th placed VVV and beaten 18th placed Willem II 3-0 at home. Remember Excelsior are 16th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLDLDDWLDWW - those last 2 wins are the only time that Heracles have had 2 wins on the trot. So what chance 3 wins on the trot now?
GOAL TRENDS - Average 2.16 scored at home. 67% of home matches over 2.5 goals - that's 2 in every 3.
3 of their last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Have conceded in all of last 4 matches.Have scored in all of last 6 matches.
Heracles have scored 10 goals in their last 2 matches.
STREAKS - 6 home matches without defeat.
It is, then , the Heracles home record that ensures them surprising short odds status here.
EXCELSIOR
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLLL - another reason why Heracles are 1.45!
10 defeats and 2 draws away and no wins .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLWLWLL - the 2 teams that Excelsior drew away with, they also beat at home, hinting that somehow they have an edge over AZ and Willem II
Excelsior have conceded 24 goals in the last 1/2 hour of their matches.
GOAL TRENDS - No clean sheets away from home.
Interestingly only 42% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals, probably down to Excelsior failing to score in 58% of their away matches.
Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 12 away matches without a win, 4 without a draw and 4 without scoring a goal. Have lost their last 4 away matches.#
7pm - Genk v Westerlo - 1.38 home - top v 10th in the Belgian League.
HEAD TO HEADS - include 2 play off finals and they are anomolous so will not be included. 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 the other scorelines in 2009 and 2010 signal tight encounters apart from those play off matches where the whole dynamic shifts.
GENK RECENT HOME FORM - like Fenerbahce and Trabonspor, Genk and Anderlecht are separated by one goal, so perhaps Genk do not want to meet this lot !!
11 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats all season at home
WLWLWWDWW - 4 wins in last 5 home matches. The 2 defeats and 1 draw all season have rather alarmingly appeared in the last 9 home matches.
The home defeats came against 2nd and 3rd in the league, indicating that the elite teams are the ones Genk are most likely to lose to ( both 1-2 defeats so both tight)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDDWWDWWWD - no defeat in 11 matches for Genk. They are really ensuring that Anderlecht do not slip ahead. Indeed the last draw was against Anderlecht and Genk were unlucky to draw a 90th minute equaliser.
GOAL TRENDS - Genk have scored in all home matches this season. 79% over 2.5 goals. They score an average of 2.64 goals at home.
Last 6 matches though have all been under 2.5 goals. Genk have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches. The 4th match was that 90th minute equaliser for Anderlecht so nearly another clean sheet.
Only once all season have Genk not scored in a match.
STREAKS - 11 without defeat, 5 at home without defeat.
Last 2 home wins have been 1-0.
WESTERLOO
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDLLLLLW - 7 defeats , 2 draws and 5 wins overall and a recent losing streak ended with a 1-0 win
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLWLLWW -one of those wins was a home win against Anderlecht 2-0. Impressive stuff.
Away to top 7 though, it's 5 defeats and a 4-4 draw where Westerloo were 3-0 down.
If opposing Westerloo we woule be counting on their poor away form v top 7, conceding 2,3 and 4 in their matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 6 matches on the trot over 2.5 goals ended with 2 wins which were under 2.5 goals.
Westerloo have failed to score in only 4 away matches .
STREAKS - 6 away matches without a draw - 9 in all.
Have failed to score in only 1 of last 16 matches.
7pm - Real Madrid v Hercules - 1.15 home - are Real Madrid the ones we can trust to score 4 or 5 ( like Ajax and Arsenal v Leyton Orient for instance)
2 3-1 away wins for Real Madrid , one in the league augurs well for tonight. As you will see, outstanding stats for both home and away sides.
2nd v 3rd from bottom.
REAL MADRID - RECENT HOME FORM - 13 wins on the trot at home. Mourinho has not lost in the league for 8/9 years. REal have not played 4 of the bottom 5 at home. Expectation though is that Real will not lose.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWWWDWW - only one loss in last 9 matches was away at Osasuna.
GOAL TRENDS - have scored in all home matches. Have kept clean sheets in 62% of home matches.
Only 54% of home matches over2.5 goals. But at 1.15 today, the ideal is a 3-4 or more goal win.
Only 2 of REal's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals. REal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Have only failed to score in 5 matches this season.
STREAKS - 13 wins at home, last 2 matches clean sheets at home.
HERCULES - RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLLLLL - 10 defeats, 3 draws and 1 win away - the win was the famous win against barca but this is not typical of Hercules capabilities.
Draws have only come against bottom 7 sides, and Hercules have lost the lot against other sides( ignoring Barca).
Hercules have lost their last 2 away matches 1-0 - a sign of tightening in defence?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLLLWLDLL - win and draw in last 5 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - Hercules havefailed to score in 9 of their last 12 matches. Quite simply, if REal score you expect the win.
Hercules have not scored a goal in 10 away matches.
STREAKS - no win away in 13, no draw away in 6, current losing streak away of 6 matches.
Quite simply, Real score, Real win! Scorelines to nil the order of the day.
If Hercules score first, then this is ideal enhanced bet territory.
Over 3.5 goals probable if the 1.15 odds are accurate,
Heavy ground at Ayr so I will not be getting involved there.
220 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Rigidity, 6/1 Apache Drums, 8/1 Total Reality, 10/1 Falcon Flight, 10/1 One For Joules, 14/1 Ainm Spartacus, 14/1 Knockcroghery, 33/1 Purple Land, 50/1 Ally Pally, 50/1 Down The Middle, 66/1 Mirandassister.
Price gapper in soft ground.Winner on last hurdle bow and an obvious chance of placing at least.
255 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shifa, 4/1 Sugar Bullet, 13/2 Gerdalia, 7/1 Brookville, 10/1 Happy Milly, 20/1 Love Milan, 25/1Justfour, 33/1 Apalachicola, 33/1 Forgot To Dance, 33/1 Makeyourmove, 33/1 Ros Brin, 33/1 Sherika, 50/1 Coco Crazy, 50/1Rebel Gale, 50/1 Silver Chief, 66/1 Pink Goddess, 66/1 The Real Macaw, 66/1 Vivid Rainbow.
Mullins/Mullins Shifa now odds against - beware Cheltenham next week so the Mullins ammo will be kept for then.
330 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Harpsy Cord, 9/4 Shannon Spirit, 8/1 I´lltelimar King, 20/1 Lash It On, 25/1 Hevelius, 25/1Mabuya, 33/1 Oh Em Gee, 33/1 Swordmaster, 50/1 About The House, 50/1 Benbo Star, 50/1 Bobleeswagger, 50/1 Garraheen Chief, 50/1 Lannigans Tower, 50/1 Mickeymorgan, 50/1 Rockshandy, 50/1 Scavenger Lad, 50/1 Sir Loujay, 50/1 Tide Runner, 66/1 Warning Sound.
Maiden hurdle dominated by front 2?
410 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Starluck, 3/1 Mamlook, 7/1 Harry Tricker, 50/1 Gandalfe.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARLUCK, far superior to these over hurdles, will find this ground more suitable than when making a successful chasing debut on testing terrain at Huntingdon and is taken to beat Mamlook even though this track presents a sterner test of his jumping and stamina.[Paul Johnson]
4 horse race, 3 horses really only in contention for the 2 places.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - Birmingham v Bolton - 2.64 away - first goal odds Lay 0-10 minutes at 6 is around a 1.19 back bet equivalent. These 2 don't score many in the first 15 mins if their Scoring times table is to be believed.
230pm - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 1.91 away - already this morning Dortmund have been spanked into 1.85 pre match from the 1.91 I quoted last night I think. Laying Hoff at 5 is the equivalent of a 1.25 back bet and I think has a good chance of coming in, being as it is tradable too.
3pm - Brighton v Tranmere - 1.43 home - this is one of those matches where I have to decide on the caution shown via head to heads, or override this with the recent form for Brighton which signals a home win. As this is an unmanaged market, there is not much liquidity.
3pm - Nottm Forest v Doncaster - 1.65 home - yes Forest have not won their last 5, but Donny have conceded 3,3,4,5,4 in 5 of the matches they have played away to top 8. Donny conceded 35 in the last half hour this season. A massive stat.
1.32 over 1.5 goals might be worth risking here given Donny's concession rate against top 8 away. Reliance mostly on Donny for this - 72% away matches over 2.5 goals.
3pm - QPR v C Palace - 1.53 home - chance the win only here? But the London factor might influence how Palace play? Taarabt a key player for QPR. 7 home without defeat v 12 away without a draw.
5pm - Trabzonspor v Kasimpasa - 1.29 home - slight concern that this is a little obvious with equal top v bottom. Trab well aware of goal difference importance and expected to win. 73% of Kas's away matches over 2.5 goals.
1.24 over 1.5 goals given Kas's concession rate away and Trab's need for goals to make the difference between them and Fenerbahce.
7pm - Real Madrid v Hercules - 1.15 home - with Hercules unable to score away recently, this means that if Real score they should win with ease this evening.
Are Real one of those sides we can trust with 4-5 goals -1.15 quote.
Alternatively we can look at the Real Madrid half time market - 1.45 the quote there which is surprisingly high but perhaps a reflection that Real are not that hot at the moment . Real were , though , similarly priced against Malaga and scored 3 before the interval.
Real have been leading at halftime in 4 of their last 5 matches. They lead at halftime in 48% of matches with the opponents in only 7% of matches. The rest draws presumably.
Heracles have conceded in the first half in their last 6 away matches. The opponent leads at half time in 52% of matches.
This 1.45 looks a decent proposition. But which Real will turn up this evening?
220 LIMERICK - rigidity - giving nothing away 1.1 to place.
255 LIMERICK - Shifa is around 1.3 to place which for a consistent Mullins/Mullins horse is reasonable -a mares maiden hurdle though.
330 LIMERICK - only 3 under 20/1 here! Surely Shannon Spirit the value here at 1.28 instead of 1.14 for harpsy Cord
410 SANDOWN - Starluck is 1.15 to place which looks a great bet given there are realistically only 3 horses for 2 places. Only one chase run so that needs to be accounted for , but a nice 6 length win over Pascha Bere, and likely another place awaits in a good probability race.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
230pm - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 1.91 away - laying Hoff at 5, now 4.7 is the same as a 1.27 back bet and covers the draw and the Dortmund away win.
3pm - Brighton v Tranmere - 1.43 home -
5,3,2,4,4,4 scored in their last 6 home matches should negate the general tightness of recent head to heads and make Brighton a betting proposition this afternoon?
5pm - Trabzonspor v Kasimpasa - 1.29 home - 1.24 over 1.5 goals looks like it could oblige this evening given Trab's need for goals and Kasimpasa's poor away concession rates. 3 draws on the trot at home a concern and the only 3 wins this year have been away from home.
7pm - Real Madrid v Hercules - 1.15 home - watch out that Lyon are on the horizon in the Champions League and there may be some tinkering against apparently weak opponents. This may negate the HALF TIME bet I uncovered .
410 SANDOWN - Starluck looks rock solid here to plave
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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