The football looks interesting today but as you saw yesterday ( and referred to below) it is silly season in the run in now to the footy season
I think the safest bet today is Topolski, one of only 4 under 25/1 who should dominate with a clear round.
Traders watch out if low scoring, for goals in the last 1/2 hour and especially last 1/4 hour of Inter's match. Note too that Porto score first in 91% of their matches.
*****ONE A DAY 215 NEWTON ABBOTT - TOPOLSKI TO PLACE ONLY*****
Sorry for no blog yesterday. I had to accompany my Mum to specialist treatment in the UK.
We now enter a difficult part of the year -football wise , look at Wigan, Blackpool, Wolves results yesterday as well as United taking 88 minutes to score a goal against Bolton. It is silly season with those teams, Europe wide, who need the points, playing well above themselves. This makes matches which normally feature a single strong team against bottom 1/4 side difficult to read.
The end of the Cheltenham Festival, too, triggers the end of the jumps season and beginning of the flat season.
2pm - Inter v Lecce - 1.23 home - 2nd v 18th - it is as you were at the top with both sides drawing only against bottom 2 sides. Inter's draw the result of apparent defensive balls up, and I would not doubt that seeing the defensive displays in the Champions League, where their goalkeeper was both villain and hero with some stupid goalkeeping followed by some match winning saves. RECENT HEAD TO HEADS - WWWWWD in Inter's favour - the draw a 1-1 saw Inter score away first.
INTER RECENT HOME FORM - 8 wins on the trot for Inter at home, scoring 5,3,4,3,3,5,1,5 -the only anomoly a 1-0 recent home win v Calgliari.
INTER RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWWLWWWWD - the draw the aforementioned defensive balls up v Brescia.
GOAL TRENDS - only 2 of Inter's last 6 matches over 2.5 goals - one a 5-2 home win over Genoa.
2.64 average scored in each match at home .
64% of home matches over 2.5 goals.
Inter have scored a whopping 29 goals in the 60th -90th minute of their matches.
Inter have failed to score in only 1 of their last 18 matches ( away to Juve)
Against bottom 4 at home ( Lecce are bottom 4) scorelines are 5-2, 3-2, 1-1, 4-0 - the 1-1 was against Brescia as mentioned a few times. Bar this result, it shows consistent scoring.
STREAKS - 8 match home winning streak - 9 home matches without a draw.
LECCE
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLWDWLD - quite good in last 5 matches only losing 1, but 3 of those matches against bottom 7 sides, one was a 2-1 away win against 4th placed Lazio.
Against top 5 away
1) 4-0 loss AC Milan
2) playing today
3) 1-0 loss - Napoli
4) 2-1 win Lazio
5) 4-0 loss Udinese
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDDWLLWDLL - only 1 win in last 5.
GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in a massive 50% of away matches.
Watch out last 15 minutes when they have conceded a massive 17 goals ( remember Inter in the last half hour)
Concede an average 2.14 away from home - have only kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 23 matches.HAve scored in 10 of last 11 matches.
STREAKS - no significant streaks.
2pm - Shakhtar v Volyn - 1.22 home - not the most appetising of matches with Shaktar losing 1-0 last time out, and both teams with only 2 matches played competitively since the break., Most recent head to heads are in 2009 and 2010 -2009 was a 1-0 Pana win in a friendly and 2010 was a league win for Pana 2-0 with 2 Djibril Cisse goals.
PANATHANAIKOS RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWLWWWWD - 2 draws have come worryingly against bottom 4 sides (1-1) - coincidence? The loss was against 6th placed side.
PANA RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWWLDLW - a bit ropey recently with LDL- away to Olympiakos, 1-1 draw with 13th and 3-1 away win against 9th - a bit inconsistent don't you think?
GOAL TRENDS - only 38% of home matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 5 matches.
Pana have scored in 10 of last 11 matches.
STREAKS - 5 matches at home without defeat 0
KERKIRA
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLDLDLWL - against top 10, Kerkira have lost 6 and drawn 2, but beware scorelines against 3rd ( 0-0), 5th ( 1-0 loss), 6th ( 1-0 loss), and 9th (0-0) and Kerkira could have the look of a typical drab defensive Greek team.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWDLWWLLL - lost last 3
GOAL TRENDS - 3 of last 4 matches have seen over 2.5 goals which might negate the tight showings against some of the top 10 away from home.
Only 23% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - no draw in 3 away, no clean sheets in last 3, and have scored in all of last 5 matches.
HEAD TO HEADS - 5 Porto wins and one draw in head to heads. REcent scorelines 2010 0-0 ( league Cup), 1-0 (Porto home win - league cup), 2-1 Porto away win, 1-0 Porto away win.
1st v 13th - the thing is that Porto have a 13 point lead at the head of the league so matches are not must wins in the conventional sense of the word.
PORTO RECENT HOME FORM -12 wins - we are familiar with Porto from recent research -12 out of 12.
PORTO RECENT FORM OVERALL - 12 match winning streak - 21 wins and only 2 draws in the league.
Recent Europa league performances saw 2 wins over CSKA home and away so Porto do not let up.
My personal assertion with Porto is they do just enough and this is my concern at this part of the season with a 13 point lead.
GOAL TRENDS - Porto have scored in all matches home and away.
67% of home matches have seen clean sheets and I suspect the 0-0 is the killer scoreline for Porto backers especially with the historically tight matches.
2.83 average scored at home per match.
Only conceded 5 at home all season in 12 matches.
Porto have not conceded in the first quarter of an hour and conceded only 2 in the first half all season.
Porto score first in 91.3% of their matches and lead at half time in 73.9% of matches.
STREAKS - 12 match winning sequence, unbeaten all season, 7 matches in total without conceding a goal.
ACADEMICA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLLLWD - Academica have only played Benfica and Guimareas of the top 5 away and , take note!, have won both matches 2-1 and 2-0. Do they raise their game against top sides? But note that Porto, this season, have not conceded 2 in a single match.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLDLLDLLWDD - unbeaten in last 3 after a run without winning where they draw and lose in coupled succession.
GOAL TRENDS- 73% of away matches over 2.5 goals. Is this enough for us to negate the head to heads which, let's remember, saw the last 2 scorelines as away matches for Porto.
Last 4 matches under 2.5 goals.
Concede 1.81 away from home per match.
Note in Academica's last 3 matches, they needed a penalty in one match to score, and in the other 2 matches they have scored a goal in the 90th minute which signals some possible goalscoring weaknesses?
STREAKS - unbeaten in 3, have drawn last 2. Be ware the unbeaten record against top 5 away ( albeit only 2 of 5 and not a strong sample)
Porto should continue on their merry way. It is important to note, with the head to heads, that in the last 4 matches, 2 were LEague Cup matches, and the 2 most recent head to heads in the league saw Porto away from home.
225 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 High Cian, 4/1 Birzali, 11/2 Battling Boru, 6/1 Barel Of Laughs, 8/1 Baily Dusk, 12/1 Fantastic Strike, 14/1 Knights Templar, 14/1 Roxborough, 16/1 So They Say, 25/1 Scottish Reel, 33/1 Brick Hill, 33/1 Chiquilline, 33/1 Tide Runner, 50/1 Cartron Lady, 50/1 Mullaghmore Glens, 50/1 My Lady Blush, 50/1 Swordmaster, 50/1 Tarry Not.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A biggish field but a very ordinary contest. The fact that Davy Russell has apparently deserted the Gigginstown newcomer to ride HIGH CIAN may be enough of a tip in itself, despite him not looking the most genuine type. [Justin O'Hanlon]
Birzali the Giggingstown newcomer mentioned above is 7/4 favourite.
Heavy ground in Carlisle
Flat season in IReland begins at the Curragh, and quite frankly, only worth an interest if you have some stable info.
235 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lost City, 2/1 Pinkisthecolour, 3/1 Whip Rule, 8/1 Gold Lace, 14/1 Madeira Girl, 20/1 Tough As Nails.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As always, the market will be the best guide to what is expected from these first juvenile runners, butLOST CITY makes plenty of appeal on pedigree and one suspects he wouldnt be brought over for this had he not been showing up well at home. Pinkisthecolour is the best alternative. [Kevin Blake]
You'll be seeing Fahey/Hanagan 2 year olds in the winning enclosure quite a lot this season and I agree totally with the Spotlight Verdict. Seeing Hanagan //Fahey make the trip to Ireland ( because the English Flat is yet to start) to run a 2 year old newcomer could be a tip in itself .
215 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Topolski, 13/8 Shammick Boy, 10/1 Water Garden, 12/1 Falcon Island, 16/1 Only Witness, 25/1 Hard Tackle, 33/1 Domos Boy, 50/1 Barton Cliche, 66/1 Fennis Ted, 66/1 Navajo Nation, 66/1 Spiritual Art, 66/1 Vitruvian Man, 100/1Fresher Fishing.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shammick Boy has already beaten a couple of decent sorts off the Flat but the double penalty is not going to be easy to shrug off against TOPOLSKI, who showed plenty of relish for the job when winning on his hurdle debut at Sandown and is a soft-ground winner on the Flat.[Emily Weber]
Only 2 under 25/1 here sees Topolski of obvious interest. THis is an ideal each way alternative race with Water Garden perhaps the one for the each way money already.
245 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Midnight Appeal, 4/1 Sawpit Supreme, 7/1 High Jack, 9/1 Health Is Wealth, 12/1 American World, 25/1 This Way, 33/1 Man From Highworth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sawpit Supreme would have possibilities if there's still juice in the ground but MIDNIGHT APPEAL (nap) again made a good impression when making it two out of two in handicap chases at Wincanton recently and is the one they all have to beat.[Emily Weber]
4 under 14/1 here and a great place only race if Midnight Appeal completes he should place.
515 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Over The Phone, 6/1 General Blackthorn, 6/1 Walter De Wodeland, 7/1 Commander Kev, 10/1Quaddick Lake, 14/1 Deloughtane, 20/1 Nicholas The Spark, 25/1 Calzaghe, 25/1 Stoneraker, 40/1 Minireturn, 100/1 Sparkbridge, 100/1 Tatsu, 150/1 Two Wheel Drive.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andy Hobbs has the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in mind for Leicester maiden hunter chase scorerOVER THE PHONE and his exciting recent recruit can enhance his reputation further ahead of that contest with a third British win here. The similarly in-form Miss Midnight should run him closest, assuming last weekends exertions have been fully shrugged off.[Jeremy Grayson]
4 under 14/1 and 5 under 33/1 here of great interest. OVer the Phone has a reputation 4 wins on the trot. Can he continue to place?
SHORTLIST
2pm - Inter v Lecce - 1.23 home - great stuff against Bayern Munich shows the type of goalscoring antics Inter have shown at home to work an 8 match home winning streak.
Game in hand over AC Milan could be the clincher today as a win takes them within 2 points of AC Milan. Watch out for the last 1/2 hour, there should be goals. Only 2 of Inter's last 6 matches over 2.5 goals is a worry, but will that amazing recent home scoring run of 5,3,4,3,3,5,1,5 negate my concerns?
4-0 loss away for Lecce v AC Milan should be replicated by Inter with their recent home scoring exploits.
815pm - Porto v Academica - 1.23 home - ever reliable - will the 13 point lead bring forth complacency? Porto score first in 91.3% of matches this season and have only conceded 5 all season.
235 CURRAGH - yes I have lost my marbles putting this maiden race featuring all debutant 2 year olds, but surely Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan are not making the trip to the Emerald Isle to taste a better pint of Guinness? 1.28 for Lost City to place? Only 2 places
215 NEWTON ABBOTT - Topolski was a 14/1 winner on sole recent hurdles outing and always a chance that this is a little premature by way of solid long standing form and proof of consistent jumping. 1.25 to place though and one of only 4under 25/1, if he does not win, he should place.
245 NEWTON ABBOTT - I am always a little squeamish about multiple handicap winners, even more so when they are chasers - Midnight Appeal is still market leader after 2 handicap chase wins, in a great place only race - 4 under 14/1 and 8 runners and 3 places. Around 1.2 to place
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