16/2

Champions League 2 leg affairs at this stage in the competition are difficult to predict. Do we take our cues from last year when these 2 served up a goalfest? If so then Arsenal and Barca over 1.5 goals at 1.23 should oblige wouldn't you thin?( 10 goals in 2 matches last year)

Elsewhere it is largely a probability bet day versus a huge price gapped handicap blot in Ireland.

The probability bets come in the 410 Leicester (4 horses under 20/1) in a hunter chase, and the 300 Southwell where 3 horses are under 25/1 and there are 2 places available. I would follow the market with this one and go with Scary Movie to place. This is a seller though so risks attached as regards consistency.

In Ireland Martin Scruff runs again as a 4/6 - - - - -10/1 price gapper and theorectically well ahead in the handicap. Won " with ridiculous ease" last time out and 4 places today. A quite appealing 1.25 ish ( illiquid betting market - might have to take SP)

It is a toss up between over 1.5 goals in the Arsenal v Barcelona match or Martin Scruff, a heavy ground performer over the ground and distance he won at last time.

*****ONE A DAY - 345 PUNCHESTOWN - Martin Scruff to place only***** - if the market is illiquid take Betfair SP

Niggles? Big field could lead to accidents which might impact Martin Scruff - i.e. he falls without making an error. Heavy ground is always a concern but he won "with ridiculous ease" in heavy ground over this dstiance last time out.

I hope I have made the right choice today. The price gap is standout and the penalty given this horse still puts him miles ahead. A clear round is all we ask for.

Now you know why I left the 220 Southwell alone. 1st and 2nd favs nowhere and those "dark" horses 1st, 2nd and 3rd at big odds.

Football was very difficult yesterday. Those who had faith in valencia were rewarded as they scored first, for the trade. Elsewhere Spurs broke their over 2.5 goals record. Just a tough day to get any angles in.

1130am - Albirex Niijata (S) v Tanjong Pagar - 1.41 home - sing along. There's only one Albirex Niijata, one Albirex Niijata! Odds are worth investigating. Singapore top flight and some stats are availalbe at www.futbol24.com These 2 last met in head to heads in 2004 so the assumption is that Tanjong are newcomers. Head to heads irrelevant that far back. 5th v 9th and first game of a new season? I'm not sure.

I'm stumped . Tanjong's form has 2004 dated - a typo?

545pm - Hamburg v St Pauli - 1.61 home - St Pauli are a promoted side and have been struggling in the Bundesliga.7th v 12th and I thought St Pauli were lower - good on them.

5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats at home for hamburg. DWWLW last 5 home matches shows some consistency. The loss was 2-4 v Leverkusen so Hamburg scored in that match.

1-1 draw at St Pauli already this season, it seems the promoted side can battle.

Hamburg have gone 12 matches without a draw and 67% of their home matches have finished over 2.5 goals.

WLLWWWLW in last 8 matches for Hamburg -they have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

Since the turn of the year, Hamburg have only scored 1,1,0,1 - a goal crisis at the club at present?

70% of hamburg's goals are scored in the 2nd half so I would expect some action if 0-0 in the first half.

A good 2011 for St Pauli with DDWW.

3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats away from home for St Pauli.LLLLD for recent away matches. LAst 6 matches home and away for St PAuli have been over 2.5 goals.

Away to top 6, St Pauli lost against bayern ( expected), but beat 4th place Hannover 1-0 and beat Freiburg 3-1.

67% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Will this over 2.5 goals trend of St Pauli's last 6 matches continue, against a Hamburg side who have scored only 3 goals in 4 matches in 2011? Conflicting stats make it difficult to get an angle.

Strangely for St Pauli, they seem to struggle against bottom sides away and take points from top 8 sides away!

Hamburg are 3rd in the form table ( a snapshot of last 6 games ) with 4 wins and 2 losses)

Traders expect some action in the 2nd half if it is quiet first half.

745pm - Arsenal v Barcelona - 1.99 away - unlike the Champions League matches last night, there are recent head to heads to work on. 2010 and , at Arsenal, 2-2, while at barcelona 4-1 and the Messi-ah scored 4.

Immediately over 2.5 goals springs to mind.

I would look to Arsenal getting the most bookings, if there is a market for that. Messi et al should ensure a bit of late tackling.

Puyol out for Barca and the Racing Post make much of this.

KEY STAT - barca have won just one of their last 6 Champions League away fixtures. That is a good stat.

Arsenal are unbeaten in the Premiership in their last 9. 3,3,2,4,2 scored in last 5 matches. So they are in rude health, but they have not met a midfield as mesmerising as Xavi and Iniesta, or a forward line quite like Messi, villa, and the superb Pedro.

The back 4 is suspect without Puyol and may lead to a neutral goals bet with Van Persie superb recently.,scoring 9 in his last 5 matches for Arsenal.

Only 2 defeats in their last 36 matches for Barca and the draws have a Champions League ring about them. 1-1 v Gijon was the league match prior to this one. They drew with Copenhagen and Kazan away.

Away goals - that's what Guardiola will want from Barca this evening - one or 2 away goals and kill the game at the Nou Camp.

Arsenal have lost just 1 of their last 27 Champions League matches at home. This is from goonersguide and I cannot verify the stat but it is strong.

No defeat in 28 for barca, and 80% of away matches are over 2.5 goals domestically. Out of the first quarter of an hour, there is extreme consistency in Barca scoring times. In 15 minute brackets in the league it is 7, 15, 10, 12, 12,15. and as to conceding? Well look at these - 0,4,2,1,3,2 - superb defensive display.

745pm - Wigan v Bolton - the odds tell you this is difficult to call and in a quiet day, I will do some research on this match although it would not be included normally in a strong betting day.3 0-0's, 2 1-1's and an anomolous 4-0 makes up the head to heads. The general trend is towards a draw , and a low scoring or no score draw in head to heads.

8th v 18th, but a win takes Wigan on a par with Everton in 13th, such is the tightness of the bottom half of the table. I would suggest the need is greater for Wigan ( and playing at home) than Bolton, although a win for Bolton takes them 6th.

Wigan have won 3 only at home. They have only won 5 all season. 2 home wins came against 2 of the promoted sides, West brom and Wolves, which perhaps signals Wigan's weaknesses.

DWDDLDLW at home last few matches for Wigan. 2 of their 3 wins at home have come recently. In fact they have only lost 2 of their last 8 home matches.

All bar one of the draws was a score draw. Rodellaga should play this evening -he has scored 5 of his 7 at home.

All of Wigan's last 7 matches have been over 1.5 goals. 4 of the last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals with the other match a 1-1 draw v Liverpool.

This is an FA Cup match - I did wander as these teams have met twice in the Premiership. Both 1-1 draws. I doubt the FA Cup is top priority for Wigan . They want Premiership survival - that's where the money is.

This is a replay after an , ahem, entertaining 0-0 .

it's up to you whether you want to get involved in Cup replays. A general trend with these 2 towards draws and few goals.

Team news important as ever as there may be changes.

Kempton is competitive today with favourites generally 7/2 - 4/1

310 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Battlecry, 2/1 Turthen, 5/1 Turko, 7/1 Farmer Frank, 9/1 William Somers, 25/1 Maletton, 25/1Turbulance, 33/1 Little Rocker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although not always proving the most reliable under rules, BATTLECRY should be up to making a winning debut in this sphere in receipt of 8lb from main rival Turthen. [Mark Brown]

Always of interest for place only purposes are 8 runner races. Battlecry's recent form is PUPP -1 - hardly compelling evidence to back!! Default to near market rival Turthen? This is a hunters chase over 2 mile 7.

410 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 What Of It, 3/1 Louis Pasteur, 5/1 Cousin John, 6/1 Battlefield Bob, 16/1 Cluthe Boy, 20/1 Cash In Hand, 25/1 Joe Soap, 33/1 Mrsilverlining.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Louis Pasteur, having won his only point and shown ability in just four starts over hurdles, is an unexposed newcomer to this division and rates the danger to WHAT OF IT (nap) who has done more than enough to suggest that a race like this is within his grasp.[Frank Carter]

Another 8 runner hunter chase sees only 4 under 16/1 and an obvious chance for What of it if he runs as a favourite should.

300 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Erinjay, 7/4 Scary Movie, 3/1 Celtic Commitment, 25/1 All Moving Parts, 33/1 Giulietta Da Vinci.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Erinjay didn't go on as expected last winter and after a winning reappearance, he was a bit disappointing next time. With that in mind, perhaps SCARY MOVIE is the safer option now back into selling company. [Paul Smith]

3 horses for 2 places in this seller - pure probability race as it is difficult to split the front 3.

150 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Blenheim Brook, 9/2 Khorun, 6/1 Classical Mist, 10/1 Northern Cross, 14/1 Blazing Bay, 14/1 Smithy The Horse, 25/1 Darkan Road.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLENHEIM BROOK (nap) can oblige back in novice company after two good handicap efforts. Khorunand Classical Mist may pose most problems.[Paul Johnson]

Big price gapper now 4/9 - - - 5/1 - only 2 places though and a novices hurdle. At least it is not a chase.

250 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Zemsky, 5/1 Bow School, 11/2 Quechua Des Obeaux, 11/2 Spellchecker, 16/1 Scotch Warrior, 20/1Athoss, 20/1 Thunder Hawk, 25/1 Kinfayre Boy, 25/1 Markadam, 50/1 Barry The Cracker, 100/1 Nirvana Du Bourg, 100/1 Pendle Forest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ground is likely to be softer than ideal for some, notably Bow School, and it is hard to get away from Irish challenger ZEMSKY despite odds-on defeats in points on his last two outings. Spellchecker may be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]

4/5 - - - -7/1 in this hunters chase sees Zemsky well fancied.

420 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Locked Inthepocket, 11/2 Quinder Spring, 7/1 Guns And Butter, 8/1 Posh Bird, 9/1 Chapolimoss, 11/1 Rossini´s Dancer, 40/1 Nonotreally.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LOCKED INTHEPOCKET couldn't have won much more easily than he did at Ayr on Saturday and a 7lb penalty wouldn't have stopped him then. Guns And Butter may be next best if the return of a tongue-tie helps.[Paul Johnson]

A handicap chase and another significant price gapper, albeit only 2 to place.

115 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Fiveforthree, 9/2 Newmill, 9/2 On The Way Out, 9/1 Der Spieler, 66/1 Drumbledore, 100/1 Oh Em Gee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The last four favourites won this and Fiveforthree is clearly the one to beat - but a 658-absence, the inadequacy of the distance and the heavy ground temper confidence. As such, ON THE WAY OUT is preferred at the prices and is taken to reverse Mallow form with Newmill, given the testing terrain. [Johnny Ward]

Note Spotlight here. No way out is the alternative, backed into 7/2 and an obvious alternative.

Heavy ground at Punchestown and we have seen the effect this ground has.

345 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Martin Scruff, 8/1 Andrea´s Answer, 10/1 Catleen, 12/1 Manger Hanagment, 12/1 Top Four, 14/1Cochise, 14/1 Newcastle Blaze, 14/1 Storm Breaker, 14/1 Sweet Spirit, 14/1 Turnonthegas, 16/1 De Dodger, 20/1 Anuta Island, 20/1 Chancy Lady, 20/1 Dawn´ll Doo, 20/1 Inishlacken, 25/1 Sparky Mcgovern, 33/1 Dunroe Boy, 33/1 Garamor Boy, 33/1 Strong Euro, 33/1 The Three Colleens, 33/1 Waluigi, 33/1 Western Bound.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: British import MARTIN SCRUFF was all the rage when he won over this trip at Thurles last week and Gordon Elliott's principal challenger is hard to oppose under his 4lb penalty considering he has been upped 19lb since for that facile 3l win. Andrea's Answer has place claims again with Turnonthegas a likely improver over this longer journey. [Brian Fleming]

I remember this horse ( the name is hard to forget) - won easily last time out and a huge price gapper." won with ridiculous ease" last time out out and has run on heavy last twice. Should again be competitive with the added bonus that this is a 4 the place race.

SHORTLIST

I don't know what it is about this week but there's absolutely nothing standout so far this week. This evening sees Champions League and an FA Cup replay with 2 teams who fought out a 0-0 previously.

You saw yesterday that the Champions League 2 leg format is difficult to read - Spurs scored a single away goal. The Valencia game I thought they would score first but it was more of a trade than a bet ( as seen when Schalke equalised)

This evening sees Barcelona and Arsenal meet in London and these 2 have history - 2-2 and 2-4. Should we expect goals this evening? If so, then over 1.5 goals is 1.23 which is very reasonable. We will see a full Barca team this evening ( unlike against Gijon at the weekend) .For Arsenal we see Walcott and Van Persie especially in great form. Fabregas is imperious and Nasri hitting the onion bag regularly.

Will this be a damp squib or will this go with historical ( and recent) head to heads.?

I would be inclined in the Wigan v Bolton match to lay Wigan here, if they field a weakened side. I think their priorities must lie in Premiership survival. You can't really keep a club afloat by way of a good cup run!

Hunter chase day at Leicester today and we are dealing with relatively unknown jockeys and some horses who are predominantly point to pointers.

There are some arguments for probability bets though.

310 LEICESTER - a hunters chase where Turthen makes some appeal of the 2 main principles with Battlecry pulled up on 3 of his last 4 starts. If that was a deliberate ploy to get a better price, then it has not worked today!!. The fact, though, that Battlecry was pulled up means that he did not fail to complete due to bad jumping.

The logical selection must be Turthen of the 2 under 8/1 - 1.2 to place and, as with Chamirey et al, a clear round is required.

410 LEICESTER - only 4 under 20/1 here and default to the favourite What of it? Ran in point to point 17 days ago so should be fit enough.

Around 1.2 to place here in a race which should involve 4 for the places ( barring accidents of course)

300 LINGFIELD - an excellent probability race , albeit a seller, which sees 3 horses under 20/1 and current market leader in the place market is Scary Movie at 1.3 to place. Worth chancing or a sudden realisation that this lot are in a seller for a reason?

The Musselburgh races are interesting from a price gapper perspective but the 2 places and obstacles is offputting. You might as well back them to win !

345 PUNCHESTOWN

Martin Scruff is turned out quickly under a penalty and is in a large field handicap race which means 4 places.About 1.25 to place we must acknowledge that this is heavy ground but we must also note that the horse ran in heavy last twice and won his last race " with ridiculous ease"

Theoretically very well in even under his penalty, only a fall or accident should stop Martin getting in the top 4.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

You either bet in the Champions League or you acknowledge that 2 legged one off affairs with huge stakes riding on them can be unpredictable .

Which camp do you fall into?1.23 for over 1.5 goals certainly appeals given last year 's 2-2 and 2-4 scorelines.

1.23 is also tradeable if there is an early goal and includes both sides. There is not a team quite like Barcelona at the moment.

410 LEICESTER - of the hunter chases this is the best probability race seeing 4 horses only under 20/1. I would automatically default to the market leader here What of it . If he has a clear round he should place

300 LINGFIELD - you simply take a shot at one of the 3 to place - this should be a 3 horse race for the 3 under 25/1

345 PUNCHESTOWN - now we may have missed the boat as Martin Scruff was a huge gamble last time out. Around 1.25 to place and 4 places.

I keep preaching about the effects ( negative) of heavy ground but this horse won over distance in today's ground last time out and a price gap of 4/6 - - - -10/1, along with 4 places, might overcome my reservations about heavy ground.