22/2

I have missed Blackpool recently at home and will not miss out this evening.

*****8pm - Blackpool v Spurs - back over 1.5 goals at 1.22*****

Over 2.5 goals looks like it is tradeable if the Blackpool trends of conceding and scoring in all home matches continues.

I must admit I was disgusted that Ljubicic did not declare any injury before his match and that Betfair refused to return my stake after Ivan retired after the first game of the 2nd set.

After all he was not defeated in 2 sets, the game should have been voided from coupons and stakes returned but " rules is rules" I was told .

This was the only way Ljubicic would not have won this match against 342nd ranked player, and my one excursion out of football and horses ends like this! Dolgololov and Berdych both won in 2 sets.

All the while I see Cottbus concede goals, Maccaibi win, and West Ham score first , following all premiership clubs in the FA Cup over the weekend.

745pm - Brighton v Plymouth - 1.38 home - Brighton won last head to head 2-0 ( most recent head to head) away at Plymouth. This is league 1 and I rarely venture to these leagues. Brighton have 2-3 games in hand of rivals and sit on top by 2 points. Plymouth are 19th.

10 wins and 4 draws at home for Brighton will make Des Lynam and his moustache happy.DWWDDWWWW recently at home. Nice 4 game winning streak scoring 5,3,2,4 in those home matches.Brighton have scored 2 or more in 11 of their 14 home matches. Brighton have only conceded 7 goals in the first half all season ( scoring 20) and 9 goals in the first hour of their matches - they are , then, likely to score first I would suggest?

Averaging 2.28 per game at home, it is no surprise that Brighton have scored in all home matches this season.

Their opponents lead at half time in only 14% of matches which might open up a speculative halftime punt on Brighton?

Would need to see Murray and Barnes playing today. Plymouth have lost 3-0 and 3-2 against 2nd and 3rd in the league away from home. LLLWLLWLLL away - as you can see Plymouth haven't drawn in a while away - they either win ( albeit infrequently - 4 times away) or lose

Interestingly, Plymouth have beaten Southampton and Milton Keynes ( 5th and 6th in the league)but can we suggest the leap to the top 3 is too much for them away?

Plymouth have conceded 21 goals in the last half hour of their matches.

They lead at half time in only 16% of their matches.

745pm - Crawley Town v Southport - 1.32 home - back to league duty after heroic cup exploits, but again I am venturing out of the leagues I know. There may, also, be a hangover from the efforts recently. AS tempting as it is to now look at Crawley's matches now they have become better known, I think I must leave these leagues alone.

745pm - FC Copenhagen v Chelsea - 1.87 away - Copenhagen are no pushovers despite being the apparent weak link in the last 16. No they are not going to win the Champions league, but will be difficult to beat on their home patch. So difficult to read these matches. Chelsea are capable of an away goal I am sure.

745pm - Lyon v Real Madrid - 1.98 away- Mourinho is a Champions League expert so knows how to negotiate 2 legged affairs tactically.

745pm - Nottm Forest v Preston - 1.43 home - 2nd v bottom and we saw against QPR at home, that Preston conceded the first goal, and drew 1-1. I expect Notts Forest to take a lead at some stage. Home advantage here and will close the gap on a faltering QPR ( dropped 2 points against same opponents) with 3 points.

No defeat in 16 matches at home for Notts Forest - 4 of 6 draws at home have come against top 9 sides. The errant draws were against Barnsley and Sheff Utd ( the latter way back in Sept 2010) 4 wins and a draw at home against bottom 7 sides - the preponderance is for a home win when facing the strugglers, albeit 2 of those were 1-0. Forest only failed to score at home against QPR in a 0-0 draw. All recent wins ( last 9 matches) for Forest have been either 1-0 or 2-1's and the losses were 1 goal affairs too (1-0 away to Scunny) and 1-1 draw v QPR.

Preston have only 2 wins to their name away from home, and those were consecutive wins in September 2010since when it has been LLDLDLDLL.

Against top 4 sides away from home, it has been 3-1 loss, 4-0 loss and 1-1 draw away at Cardiff. The top 3 sides scored 7 in 2 matches with the concession of only 1 goal. Remember Notts Forest are 2nd.

Preston have conceded a massive 27 goals in the last half hour of their matches, to my recollection the worst concession rate I have come across. So 1-1 or 0-0 or if Preston lead at the 60 minute mark, lay that draw or Lay Preston and hope for that leaky defence to concede as they have done.

No win in 10 away for Preston and no win in 10 overall for Preston with LLLDDLLLDD .3 times Preston have had 2 draws on the trot, but they have never had 3 draws on the trot.

Preston have not kept a clean sheet away from home all season and they concede an average of 2 goals a game away from home.

745pm -Queen of South v Stirling - 1.41 home - 10 losses and a 0-0 draw the reasons why QOS are favs and Stirling likely very opposable, but note last 3 Stirling matches were 0-0, 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss. This may be trickier for QOS than the overall form suggests. QOS have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 1 of their last 5 home matches. hardly compelling evidence. Not enough trends here for me to get involved in Scottish 1st Division.

8pm - Blackpool v Tottenham - if all is lost there is always over 2.5 goals when Blackpool play at home. 2-0 to Spurs in the Carling Cup the only head to head. A win important for both sides - takes Spurs 3rd and takes Blackpool 11thish ( dependent I think on goal difference) The bottom places are so tight that any 3 points gleaned will be so valuable.

Blackpool have kept no clean sheets at home and they have scored in all matches at home. All matches over 2.5 goals bar the last one against Villa which was 1-1 within 14 minutes and thus a successful over 2.5 goal trade if not a bet ( and I think involvement tonight might have to insist upon the trade if 1-1 early on.

Blackpool's last 7 matches bar their home match against Villa have all been over 2.5 goals ( no surprise that 5 of those were at home)

No win in 4 at home for Blackpool will make them more eager than ever to continue attacking and win a match.LLWLLLLLD - the reality has hit home for Blackpool in their last few matches.

2-3 scorelines at home against United and City could easily be replicated by Spuds, even if Bale and Modric might be absent.

It is quite clear where Blackpool's strengths lie for the bettor and trader, and that's in conceding and scoring at home. But what of Spurs?

Only 1 defeat in 15 for a Spurs side buoyed by their antics at Milan. Their performances directly after a European night are inconclusive, they've won their share of matches.

WLLWDWLDWW away for Spurs recently is quite good. 54% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Spurs have scored in 11 of their 13 away matches , failing only against Man Utd and West Ham ( local derby?)

Van der vaart is the top scorer home and away for Spurs with a miserly 10 goals ( 4 away) -Spurs do not have a real out and out goalscorer as dominant as, say, a Berbatov for United.

On a positive note, plenty of the team have got on the scoresheet.

Spurs have conceded away in 12 of their 13 away matches, good news for overs supporters.

Spurs do not really have any standout stats so it is largely a reliance on Blackpool's home reputation today.

Spurs have scored 18 goals in the last half hour of all matches, and Blackpool have conceded a whopping 16 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches so expect some fireworks later if drab early on.

1015pm - Cruzeiro v Guarani (Par) - 1.22 home

150 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 La Estrella, 4/1 Stadium Of Light, 4/1 The Oil Magnate, 20/1 Mojeerr, 33/1 Indian Pipe Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LA ESTRELLA is proving hard to beat in these races and, with his main rivals a runner who's clearly had problems (The Oil Magnate) and another who's hard to win with (Stadium Of Light), he ought to extend his unbeaten course record.[Graham Wheldon]

Only 3 under 25/1 makes for an interesting probability race. 5 day course and distance winner La Estrella the obvious starting point in this class 6 claimer.

325 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Reachforthebucks, 8/1 William Wainwright, 10/1 Talkin Italian, 12/1 Dance For Livvy, 12/1 Goal, 12/1 Pink Sari, 33/1 Littlepromisedland, 33/1 Mariner´s Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless the market suggests either Talkin Italian or Pink Sari is considered potentially better than an opening mark of 50, this should be straightforward for last Thursday's easy C&D winner REACHFORTHEBUCKS.[Graham Wheldon]

Now 1/4 in a 7 runner race - 1.27 to win and 1.06 to place ( 3 places and 7 runners) - this could be a race where we look for the 2nd and 3rd placers amongst the 6 remaining runners. As one of only 3 under 20/1, William Wainwright at 8/1 looks the obvious each way play on betfair , at an illiquid 1.5 to place.

Reachforthebucks is a course and distance winner and will be " hard to beat under a penalty in a softer race" , so says Spotlight. Faith in the market here?

400 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Baileys Agincourt, 13/8 First Rock, 12/1 Polarity, 16/1 Thunderway, 20/1 Pride Of Mine, 20/1Runaway Tiger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BAILEYS AGINCOURT would be unconvincing in most circumstances but, with First Rock seemingly going the wrong way, he may have been left with a good opportunity.[Richard Austen]

Only 2 runners under 12/1 here and Baileys is the Johnston runner.Has a run at Southwell which is so important. Any involvement in this race assumes both of these horses place.

435 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Stanley Rigby, 5/2 Naheell, 4/1 Port Hill, 10/1 Turjuman, 14/1 Mexican Jay, 16/1 Ay Tay Tate, 25/1Kipchak.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On the face of it STANLEY RIGBY has a bit to do if he's to confirm placings with Naheell on 5lb worse terms, but such has been his rate of progress on this surface that he's taken to do just that.[Graham Wheldon]

Multiple winning handicappers will end sometime ( 4 wins now) and Port Hill is the one for slight support. Only 2 places makes it difficult though.

200 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Qozak, 15/8 Shoreacres, 12/1 Hopeful Start, 16/1 Ceepeegee, 25/1 Kap West, 40/1 Secret Shared.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should concern only two and, although giving weight, QOZAK (nap), who is 4-4 around here, is expected to defy the penalty. Shoreacres goes well fresh and should at least make a race of it. [Mark Brown]

Only 2 now under 33/1 in the betting and a clear round should see them dominate. Soft ground a slight niggle as is novice chase status of this race.

350 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hobsons Bay, 7/2 River Dragon, 9/2 Murrell, 7/1 Old Style, 16/1 Drop The Hammer, 20/1 China House, 40/1 Direct Approach, 66/1 Another Mystery, 200/1 Newgatehopeful.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary novice hurdle which gives HOBSONS BAY a good opportunity to get off the mark. Old Stylemay give him most to do.[Frank Carter]

Only 4 under 33/1 should dominate if soft (heavy in places) ground is not a factor.

SHORTLIST

745pm - Brighton v Plymouth - 1.38 home - slight drift to 1.4 does not alarm me. Brighton should not lose at home, and if Plymouth replicate the scorelines against 2nd and 3rd in the league away, 1.24 over 1.5 goals looks very appealing.

745pm - Nottm Forest v Preston - 1.43 home - concede an average of 2 away and no win in 10 away -surely Forest should dominate. Also Preston have not kept a clean sheet away. 1.27 over 1.5 goals a little big but appealing given Preston's away concession rate.

8pm - Blackpool v Tottenham - ahhhh, old faithful ( apart from 1-1 Villa at home latest but they kept up 100% scoring and 100% conceding at home in each match)

1.22 over 1.5 goals has a great chance of coming in surely?1.66 looks eminently tradeable for over 2.5 goals.

325 SOUTHWELL - REachforthebucks is 1.27 to win and should win with ease as a recent course and distance winner. 1.06 to place but can we speculate on William Wainwright to place?

400 SOUTHWELL - late non runner is significant in First Rock surely brings Baileys qagincourt into play as a guaranteed (ish) placer as the only survivor under 12/1? Johnston/Fanning, Spotlight not too hot on him, 1.12 in an illiquid market to place and 1.39 to win might be worth risking? has course experience.

200 TAUNTON - 2 under 33/1 means Qozak ( 1.11) and Shoreacres ( long absence , McCoy onboard), should finish 1 and 2 with a clear round

350 WETHERBY - 4 only under 33/1 here and Hobsons Bay is obvious at 1.16 to place, with potential for River Dragon at 1.3 to place as the value alternative.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Brighton v Plymouth - 1.38 home - 1.24 over 1.5 goals looks appealing here but the niggle is my lack of knowledge regarding lower leagues, team news etc.

745pm - Nottm Forest v Preston - 1.43 home, just as QPR did, I would expect Notts Forest to lead at some stage, making the price very tradeable. Preston concede 2 on average away from home.

8pm - Blackpool v Tottenham - 1.22 over 1.5 goals top of my list.

400 SOUTHWELL - Surely Baileys Agincourt , as the remaining horse left under 12/1 originally, should win now main rival is out? 1.39 the win and 1.12 ish the place. Niggle? Spotlight less than flattering re his chances. Positives? Fanning/Johnston and course experience.

350 WETHERBY - looks 4 for 3 places with the 4 under 33/1 - niggles? Soft ( heavy in places ground)