23/2

Arsenal are very appealing indeed at home this evening against a Stoke side where all of the stats point to problems with goals - No goals scored in 46% of their away matches, only 7 scored in the first half all season, lost last 4 away, conceded 2 goals against all of the top 8 sides they have played away against an Arsenal side who scored 2 or more in 8 of their last 9 matches.

It is either this Arsenal match or Swingkeel to place in a race where only 4 are under 50/1

I will put my faith in Arsenal this evening , given Stoke's poor away form

*****ONE A DAY 745pm - Arsenal v Stoke City - back Arsenal in the match odds at 1.36****

A neutral over 1.5 goals bet involves both sides. I do not, though, expect Arsenal to be in hangover mode after the exploits against Barca. There is a risk of this, but I hope the need to close the gap to 1 point ( albeit for a short while) will ensure a focus for Arsenal in what could be a very memorable year.

I always err on the side of caution with goals bets and over 1.5 goals , when I should have realised that this is Blackpool at home!

Job done without any concern yesterday. I was swearing rather loudly having missed that Chelsea price against Copenhagen .

1130am - Singapore Armed Forces v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.18 - home team must be good at shooting. Last head to heads were in 2004 for these 2and judging by the odds, the away side are the newly promoted side, or the home side were on " manoevres" WWLWWWWDW latest for Singapore Armed forces. I think the season started in October 2010, if so it is LWWW at home scoring 1 5 1 4 goals in those 4 matches. Priced today to replicate the 5 and 4 goals.

It would seem, looking at the table, that this is the 2nd game of the season.

Only recent result for Tanjong was a 5-0 loss to Albirex Niigata.

5pm - Porto v Sevilla - 1.82 home - 2-1 away win for Porto should see them through on away goals with a tight match today or a 1-0 Sevilla win. Makes it hard to evaluate as this is effectively the "second half"

LDLDLLW for Sevilla in all competitions recently is poor form - 1-0 win over Hercules hardly compelling evidence that they will overturn a Porto side imperious at home.

The only losses in last 12 for Porto have come in domestic cup matches and would hint at a degree of dismissiveness about these competitions.

Are they up for the Europa League? Porto have been ruthless when needed. They only drew 1-1 at home to Besiktas because they beat them 3-1 at their patch. In a slightly similar position this evening in that they do not need to win ( hence the 1.82 quote) and feel like a side who when they don't need to win, don't win.

745pm - Arsenal v Stoke - 1.36 home - back to domestic duties for an Arsenal side who must be crackling with confidence.56 points with a win is within 1 of United who'll have a game in hand though. So this is a must win for Arsenal with home advantage.

Stick in your notebooks what happened to Spurs yesterday in a match they should have won after a euphoric Champions League win. Will Arsenal suffer likewise after what they achieved against Barca at home?

WWLLWWDWWW - in fine fettle at home.Recent draw was a "park the camels" performance from Man City.

3,2,3,0,3,3,2,4,2 scored by Arsenal in their recent matches. Only one match recently home and away in which Arsenal did not score 2 goals.

No defeat in 9 matches, with 3 draws - Against Wigan, Arsenal were leading 2-1, 0-0 v Man City we know about, and 4-4 v Newcastle when 4-0 up and should never have been a loss.

On average Arsenal score 2.28 at home, and concede 0-93 at home, which makes for a nice winning goals average.

Arsenal have not conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of any of their matches this season, but have scored 10.

Arsenal have won the last 3 league head to heads 4-1, 2-0, 3-1 ( lost in the Cup recently but note changes in personnel.)

Arsenal's first meeting with Stoke this season.

Stoke have not had a draw in 10, losing 6 and winning 4. In those 10 matches , the number 2 appears 7 times in 6 2-0 scorelines ( 3 wins , 3 losses)

WDWLLLL away for Stoke.

Against the top 8 away from home ( Stoke not played 2nd, 3rd, 4th) there have been 5 defeats, 3 2-0's and 2 2-1 scorelines. These scorelines conceding 2 seem to recurr quite often for Stoke recently and against top sides away.

So, Arsenal have not conceded in the first 15 minutes of matches, well Stoke have not scored in the first 15 minutes of any matches. ( back the 0-0 initially to trade?)

Only 22% of Stoke's goals are scored in the first half, so you would think that if any goal was to be scored in the first half, Arsenal would do the scoring.

Stoke have failed to score in a whopping 46% of their away matches - that's nearly half of their matches away from home. They have scored only 7 goals in the first half and conceded 18 ( the majority in the last 1/4 hour of the first half) .

Traders beware - Stoke have scored by far the most goals in the last quarter of an hour of their matches. So if Arsenal are leading and you've backed them to trade, get out!!

It would seem that Stoke have trouble scoring 1) in the first half and 2) away from home.

Arsenal have scored 2 at least in 8 of their last 9 home and away.

NIGGLE? Hangover after the Barca result for Arsenal ( see Spuds last night)

745pm - Marseille v Man Utd - United, masters of the 1-0 aways in Europe - odds suggest a tight match so 1-0 a distinct possibility.

2 1-0's at home in the last 2 Champions league matches includes against Chelsea so we can get an idea of the capabilities of Marseille in Europe at home. (but was this during the period when Chelsea were faltering?)

Last loss at home was Sept 2010 against Spartak Moscow

1-0, 3-0, 1-0 away for United in Champions League last 3 - 1-0 a likely scoreline tonight?

So tough to call though in these one off affairs.

200 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Raya Star, 2/1 Master Fiddle, 5/1 Kings Grey, 7/1 Lamb´s Cross, 10/1 Exotic Man, 16/1Steeldrivinman, 20/1 Luso´s Lad, 33/1 Pericam, 50/1 Mudita Moment, 50/1 Speakers Corner, 100/1 Lisdonagh House, 100/1 Nothing Ventured, 100/1 Sheepclose, 100/1 Track Star, 100/1 Wheretheres A Will.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two good prospects lock horns in the shape of MASTER FIDDLE and Raya Star. Marginal preference is for the Henderson raider, a giant of a horse and now fitted with a tongue-tie after running below expectations at Ascot. Kings Grey is feared most of the remainder.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 5 under 25/1 here can, we hope, fight out for the 2 places, with the 2 mentioned by Spotlight dominating.

235 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Beshabar, 9/2 Cool Mission, 11/2 Benartic, 28/1 Flowonlovelyriver.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BESHABAR, who proved useful and progressive over hurdles, was staying on when brought down in a decent contest at Cheltenham returned to chasing on his reappearance and looks the one to beat at this less demanding level.Benartic is the only runner who lacks experience over fences but it will be interesting to see whether the change of discipline has a positive effect.[Steven Boow]

BAttered into 1/3 and one of only 3 under 40/1 should fight out the 2 places. Dare we trust beginner chasers?

Heavy ground at Fairyhouse tempers enthusiasm

400 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Geordie Iris, 6/4 Colebrooke.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Geordie Iris benefited from being held up off a quick pace when recording a career best on her previous start, and had taken a keen hold when winning in lesser company the time before, so from a tactical standpoint it should be advantage COLEBROOKE, who will presumably lead. It's not quite so straightforward from a form perspective, but Mark Johnston's runner ought to improve under these conditions and can make the most of a 12lb weight concession.[Ron Wood]

Literally a 50/50 race but Fanning/Johnston on Colebrooke might be the ones?

245 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Font, 7/4 Diktalina, 11/2 Abstract Art, 50/1 Steely Bird.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Font massively dropped in class but totally out of form in both starts since his layoff, the best option may be DIKTALINA, whose connections have also opted to set their sights at a much lower level. A serious bet is hard to recommend though.[Richard Austen]

3 should fight out the 2 places and Abstract Art at now 3/1 cannot be discounted - a selling hurdle does little to appeal.

525 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Swingkeel, 2/1 Hawkes Point, 8/1 Cantlow, 8/1 Chasing Aces, 25/1 Rascella Bay, 33/1 Rooftop Rainbow, 66/1 Rathconrath, 100/1 Mister Concussion, 100/1 Roman Landing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SWINGKEEL sets a good standard on his Flat form and his close third to Our Island (a good winner since) first time out over hurdles. Others have shown some promise but the chief worry has to be the well-related Nicholls-trained maiden point winner Hawkes Point.[Richard Austen]

4 under 25/1 here should dominate this maiden hurdle with clear rounds. Swingkeel and Hawkes Point appeal. Yet again, as an aside, this is an ideal each way value alternative race.

SHORTLIST

745pm - Arsenal v Stoke - 1.36 home - a straight back of Arsenal or the relative comfort of a neutral goals bet? But with the latter , Stoke have not scored in nearly half of their away matches.

745pm - Marseille v Man Utd -pure conjecture here with these high profile, high stakes 2 legged matches. Remember tonight is only the first half. Take our cues from recent Champions League scorelines? 0-2, 1-1, 1-1, yesterday. The importance of the away goal prevailed yesterday, and a likelihood, I feel, for a tight away match tonight. 2 1-0's away in their last 3 for United stands out ( the third was a 3-0 win v Besiktas)

The lay of Marseille at 3.45 is the equivalent of a 1.38 back bet and covers the draw.

1.22 under 3.5 goals looks safe enough I suspect . Under 2.5 goals is more of a tradable price.

200 DONCASTER - 3 under 14/1 and the King/Thornton Raya star would be of interest but I am not too keen on backing fallers next time out.1.27 to place as against 5/2 2nd fav Master Fiddle 1.4 to place.

400 LINGFIELD - 2 horse race and the favourite is a false favourite as bookies cannot put up a market of true odds of evens as there is no profit margin. So, value must lie in bigger priced Colebrooke , but a risky race as will be very tactical given 2 horses only.

525 LUDLOW -the betting is very interesting here and points to the 4 horses under 50/1 only. This allows for an each way value alternative and Cantlow and Chasing Aces are the 2. Surely Swingkeel would be the safer option today to place as a one a dayer?

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

745pm - Arsenal v Stoke - 1.36 home -such a poor away record and away goals performance must put everything in favour for a home win, AS LONG AS the Barca match does not deflate as the Champions League may have done to the Spuds last night.

Statistically we have a side who have scored 2 or more in 8 of their last 9 against a side who have conceded 2 against the 5 of the top 8 they have played away. 1.28 over 1.5 goals is interesting but I suspect will be wholly reliant on Arsenal.

525 LUDLOW - Swingkeel, with a clear round, looks primed to place in a race where only 4 horses are under 50/1