The FA Cup matches are mighty tempting but I will stick with Barca today for what should be a relatively easy home win at decent enough 1.16
8pm - Barcelona v Ath Bilbao -back Barca in the match odds at 1.16 - tempting to go with halftime Barca or over 2.5 goals - I would prefer the latter as a trader, but in a day of FA Cup matches , and novice chases, I will stick with barca, who have won their league game after all Champions League matches this season.
Tornado Bob placed with ease.
130pm - Ajax v VVV - 1.12 home - yes Man Utd were 1.12 home yesterday but that was the FA Cup and the team he put out was nowhere near a strong Man Utd. Real were 1.15 and won 2-0 - this is what we should expect from Ajax this afternoon. The big 3 play today in Holland. LWWLDDWW recently at home for Ajax -recent slip ups at home ended with 2 wins on the trot. Playing 2nd from bottom who they beat 2-0 at VVV. DWDWWLWWD in recent matches for Ajax-so close to a winning streak. Against bottom 8 sides ( VVV are 2nd from bottom) it's 5 wins at home out of 5 , scoring 3,2,4,2,2 in the process. Ajax have scored 2 minimum in last 5 head to heads. All points for VVV have been against bottom 8 sides and comprehensive losses against the rest, conceding 3,3,6 against top 6 away. VVV are poor - in the first 1/2 hour, scoring 6 and conceding 15.
Dare we go with over 3.5 goals to trade today? Over 2.5 goals should come in.
130pm - Twente v NEC Nijmegen - 1.33 home - 3 wins in last 3 head to heads scoring 4,2,4 for Twente. Equal at the top with PSV who play today and a must win for Twente. 2nd v 10th in the league. Only 3 losses came in Nove -December 2010.WWWLWWWW at home for Twente. 0-0 against 9th placed Heerenveen and 2 losses away against 9th and 11th might indicate a sticky spot with Twente against mid table sides. The opponent leads at half time in 8.7% of matches - a trading angle? NEC away find the top 9 difficult but they have drawn 4 of the 6 matches so a word of warning to Twente. 5 draws and 2 wins in last 7 for NEC , 4 of the 5 are score draws. This might not be as straightforward for Twente as the odds might suggest.
2pm - Lazio v Bari - 1.46 home - 4th v bottom so immediately one reason why Lazio are so short. Bari win, Bari win, Lazio away win last 3 head to heads and another potential bogey team for Lazio?
WDWWLWWD at home for Lazio recently. Against bottom 8 at home, Lazio have struggled -scorelines read 1-1, 1-0, 1-1. 1-2, 1-0 - not once have they scored more than one against lower sides.
Bari have lost 6 of their last 7 matches home and away, so are in decline.
Away from home, bari's recent record readsLLLWLLL
Bari have only scored 4 goals in the first half of their matches this season - compelling enough evidence to back Lazio to score first?
2pm - Man City v Notts Co - 1.22 home - irritatingly does not appear on the main coupon but on the in play coupon only. LDDWLD in City's last 6 matches in all competitions. Great enhanced trade in the first match as Notts County scored 1st.DLDDDLW for Notts County last 7 matches - LLLDWWDD away fior Notts County includes a win against Sunderland - surely Man City will not let this slip away at home? 7 wins and a loss at home for Man City. 2pm - Udinese v Brescia - 1.46 home - 5th v 18th in the league and against bottom 8 sides at home, Udinese have won all of their matches. 1-0 to Udinese away at Brescia in most relevant head to head
WWWWWDW for Udinese at home recently is impressive stuff. Last 14 matches overall have been over 1.5 goals for Udinese.
Only 33% of Brescia's away matches have been over 2.5 goals which indicates the potential for another tight match this afternoon.LDLLLLLD away recently for Brescia is in stark contrast to Udinese's home form. 9 defeats, 2 draws and a win away for Brescia should point us in favour of laying the away side or backing Udinese.
Apart from AC Milan, Brescia have conceded a minimum of 1 against the top 8 away.
A tight match in prospect with the likelihood of a 1-0 or 1-1 or 2-0 scoreline?
230pm - Leverkusen v Stuttgart - 1.63 home - 2 wins for each side in last 4 head to heads makes a neutral bet ideal here I would suggest. 3rd plays 2nd from bottom. A win takes Leverkusen 2nd . DWDLWDWDLW at home recently for Leverkusen is inconclusive and inconsistent.Not once have they won 2 on the trot in recent matches -do we suddenly expect another win?
Only 4 wins at home for Leverkusen suggests Leverkusen are vulnerable.
Against bottom 7 at home, Leverkusen's matches were over 2.5 goals. Their vulnerability suggests a neutral goals bet (if any - we do not have to bet on matches you know!!)
70% of Stuttgart's away matches have been over 2.5 goals as have 5 of the last 6 head to heads.
DLDLLDW recently away for Stuttgart. 5 of last 7 aways were over 2.5 goals.
Stuttgart have kept no clean sheets away from home.
3pm - FC Basel v Sion - 1.47 home - not as compelling as the Zurich match yesterday as far as patterns are concerned. 3pm - Fulham v Bolton - 12th v 8th in the league. Last 3 head to heads have been 1-1, 0-0 and 0-0. That's quite a trend. Only 3 losses at home for Fulham , 2 against 3rd and 4th and one against West ham ( local London rivals ) DLDDLWWWD recently at home for Fulham, they must take confidence from last 4 matches and 0-0 v Chelsea which they should have won.
Against 5th, 7th and 9th at home, games have either been 0-0 or 1-0 ( which ties in with head to heads v Bolton)
All of the goals at home have come against top 3 or bottom 4.
Bolton have won only 2 matches away and any coincidence those 2 teams are bottom and 2nd from bottom?
Against 13th to 18th, we have seen 5 1-1 draws - again a coincidence? ( Fulham are 12th)
Bolton have kept no clean sheets away from home this season in the league. Will this continue in what looks like being a tight match?
6 match losing streak for Bolton away from home.
70% of Bolton's goals scored and conceded have come in the 2nd half, so prepare if 0-0 at halftime
330pm - PSV v Breda - 1.2 home - top v 11th and equal footing with Twente( who play earlier) - a Twente win should make this a better bet on PSV to get the win. Breda have won the last 2 head to heads and drawn one more of the last 4 - a potential bogey side for PSV? PSV scored 1st in the last 2 defeats by Breda. WWLWWWWL for PSV at home lately. Losses for PSV at home have come against the top 5 , Breda are 11th and in 8 of the other 9 matches at home away from top 5, PSV have scored 3 goals or more.
PSV have scored 22 in the first half and conceded 9 so the likelihood is that they are going to score first again?
75% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Breda have lost their last 3 matches 3-0, 3-0, and 2-0, losing at home to Ajax 3-0 which should give us an indication of the optimum PSV scoreline.
LLLLWDL away for Breda recently.
Now we have the dilemma of head to heads pointing to a bogey team but all else pointing to a PSV win.
90% of Breda's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
83% of Breda's points have been achieved at home, so the likelihood is for nothing out of this away match.
Last 5 head to heads have been over 2.5 goals so a neutral goals bet will compensate for the question mark brought up with 3 of the last 4 head to head results ( 2 wins for Breda and a draw)
430pm - L Orient v Arsenal - 1.33 away - let us take out cues from Stoke and Birmingham yesterday. Premier League sides won with absolute ease ( bar United ) - expect Arsenal to do the same? 1.33 is a big price. I omitted to look at these matches yesterday and I should have done. Well l Orient are in good fettle at home in League 1, unbeaten in 12 and scoring 3,4,3 in their last 3 matches. Unbeaten in 10 in all competitions at home WWDDWWDDWW - perfect sequence! 1.18 over 1.5 goals 6pm - Sevilla v Hercules - 1.59 home - 9th v 12th in the league - and only one head to head was a 2-0 win for Hercules at home. 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats at home for Sevilla does not make them appealing at the price ( layable even with trading in mind)
LLLWLWD at home for Sevilla recently. Hercules have only won 1 match away and that was v Barca in that famous 2-0.
Hercules has failed to score in 83% of their away matches.
Away to top 11, bar the anomolous 2-0 win over Barca, Hercules have lost the 5 matches they have played 3-0 on 4 occasions and 2-0 once - quite compelling and add to that the fact Hercules have not scored away in 83% of matches , could we rely on Sevilla to score a goal?
745pm - Napoli v Catania - 1.45 home - 3rd v 16th and napoli could go top with a win. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 head to heads make for a potentially tight match this evening.
WWWWWDWW at home for Napoli recently is emphatically good form. Only 2 losses at home, one against league leaders and the other against Chievo but way back in September 2010.
No goals conceded in 6 matches at home for Napoli.
Napoli have scored a whopping 16 and conceded only 2 in the last quarter of an hour of the match so consider laying the draw if a draw in the 75th minute.
Catania have lost 8 and drawn 4 away from home, so immedaitely look to lay them if the price is short enough, or if they lead at any stage, lay them or back napoli.
LDLLLDL away for Catania recently. Be wary - against 2 of the top 4 they have played away, the scoreline has been 1-1 ( and that includes AC Milan)
LLDLLDLW in recent matches for Catania. 2/3rd of all Catania's matches this season have been under 2.5 goals
Catania's away form is so poor , and contrasts markedly with Napoli's home form.
8pm - Barcelona v Ath Bilbao - 1.16 home - quite simply , if Messi had his scoring boots in London, he'd have scored 2 goals minimum, so there's no crisis afoot at Barca. No defeat in 21 and 9 match winning streak at home for barca. 1.16 indicates 2 or 3 goals win for barca. We know all the stats already. 2,5,3,5,5,2,4,3,3 scored in those 9 home wins. Last 2 meetings were cup meetings and draws. Must win as Real won yesterday.
3-1 win at Athletico.
Ath have played 3 of the top 4 away from home and lost 5-1, 2-1, 4-1 - they have scored in each match but lost comfortably.
LLLLLWDWL away for Bilbao 0- recent WDW was against bottom, 4th from bottom and 7th.
Barca have scored first in 87% of their matches. As with short priced home teams, we can enhance the odds with a halftime/fulltime Barca/barca bet at 1.48 or Half time at 1.42
1.36 over 2.5 goals , perhaps venture into the bigger goals bets given the 1.16 odds - 1.86 over 3.5 goals.
220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Chevise, 11/4 Captain Dimitrios, 10/1 Slatey Hen, 16/1 Fairy Tales, 33/1 Shutupandrive.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHEVISE is taken to beat Captain Dimitrios once again despite a small turnaround in the weights.[Graeme North]
George Baker on the fav, one of only 2 under 10/1 and 3 under 25/1
330 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cape Tribulation, 5/4 Radium, 7/1 Springfield Raki, 100/1 Cottam Grange, 100/1 Muntami, 150/1Pipes A´calling.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Essentially a match and potentially a one-sided match at that, with CAPE TRIBULATION better thanRadium over hurdles and the latter having a bit to prove on the jumping front.[Graham Wheldon]
With Springfield Raki out, this must surely be a 2 horse race with a clear round ( a novices chase)
305 NAAS -
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Golden Silver, 7/1 Made In Taipan, 8/1 Scotsirish, 12/1 Mansony.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given a clear round this looks a straight forward task for GOLDEN SILVER and Willie Mullins' principal challenger could well be chased home by Made In Taipan, trained by his brother Tom. [Brian Fleming]
Mullins favourite here - clear round over chase fences.
415 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Predictive, 7/4 Sir Tantallus Hawk, 50/1 Flighty Mist.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The pick of some very useful hurdle recruits is PREDICTIVE, who can build upon an easy chase win when last seen in November. Sir Tantallus Hawk ran well here recently and rates an obvious threat on these terms.[Ben Osborne]
Glencree is a runner now, but this is 3 horses basically for 2 places - but heavy ground. Ideal probability race though.
SHORTLIST
130pm - Ajax v VVV - 1.12 home - indicates goals in an ideal world and given VVV's record away from home against top teams this is what we expect. 1.41 halftime to Ajax appeals given the poor poor 1st half record for VVV. Look also to goals - over 2.5 and the speculator can move to over 3.5 goals.
2pm - Man City v Notts Co - 1.22 home - take our cues from Stoke and Birmingham yesterday. Notts County you feel have had their chance. Is this likely to be a tight game early on with the eventual Man City goal?
230pm - Leverkusen v Stuttgart - 1.63 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals is interesting given the evidence gathered.
330pm - PSV v Breda - 1.2 home - confidence for a PSV win will be enhanced, I would suggest, if Twente win the earlier fixture. One major niggle - last 4 head to heads have seen 2 Breda wins, a PSV win and a draw - a bogey side for PSV?
1.15 over 1.5 goals and 1.47 over 2.5 goals neutral bets will cover the eventuality of another strong Breda performance.
430pm - L Orient v Arsenal - 1.33 away - Orient are in pretty good shape in league 1, but Arsenal will be buzzing after their win over Barca. Team news will temper confidence but I draw your attention again to Stoke and Brum yesterday, bot priced much bigger and winning with extreme ease ( albeit at home)
745pm - Napoli v Catania - 1.45 home - napoli have not conceded in last 6 at home so consider backing them and laying off if they score first or a NEXT GOAL bet at 1.39 ( illiquid betting market) on Napoli. 1.33 under 3.5 goals given the general trend for under 2.5 goals here? Be wary - Catania have drawn 1-1 with 2 of the top 4 away.
8pm - Barcelona v Ath Bilbao - 1.16 home - Bilbao's away record against the top 5 is woeful but they have scored in each match. 1.16 signals goals and barca are normally reliable goals betting mediums when this short. Halftime/Fulltime should be considered at 1.52 or Half time at 1.42 - over 2.5 goals at 1.38 will be tradable I am sure.
220 KEMPTON - Chevise have George Baker on - 1.15 to place in this claimer and only 2 places.
330 MARKET RASEN - Novice chase and a 2 horse race - a clear round will see these 1 and 2 -Cape tribulation and Radium to place
305 NAAS - Mullins/Townend on Golden Silver makes it interesting in the win only market at 1.15 to win in only a 3 horse race.
415 SEDGEFIELD - 3 horses , and 2 places and only 2 under 20/1 makes this an obvious race as long as Predictive and Sir tantalus Hawk put in a clear round.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - Man City v Notts Co - 1.22 home - just hope for a replication of Stoke and Birmingham yesterday, makes this 1.22 appealing. Dzecko did have a few near misses at Notts County. Would be great to see Tevez!
430pm - L Orient v Arsenal - 1.33 away -slight risk here given Leyton Orient have been strong in recent League 1 matches and a strong Arsenal side would be great to see - the riskier of the 2 FA Cup matches but can we take a chance?
1 loss in 14 in the league , no defeat in 11 at home for Leyton orient in the league.
8pm - Barcelona v Ath Bilbao - 1.16 home - should be a comfortable night and over 2.5 goals appeals at 1.38 as a trade really rather than a bet. The Halftime/fulltime is interesting, but Barca have only led at half time in 65% of their matches. They have led at half time in their last 3 matches at home. Against bilbao they did take up to the 2nd half in their away match
8 of Barca's 12 matches at home they have led at halftime.
WDWWDWWW for recent half times for Barca - makes the half time 1.42 interesting. Barca have scored 32 goals in the first half and only conceded 6 this season and scored first in 87% of matches. Back halftime at 1.42 and cover 0-0 correct score market ( and trade the potential profit against the loss at halftime if 0-0) or back 0-0 halftime score at 6.8 ( but in an illiquid betting market)
Novice chases abound and arguments can be made for all races today from a probability perspective. They just need to finish!!
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