Today can be categorised into speculative punts which are at bigger prices but will solid arguments behind them - such as
- Man Utd away at Wigan 1.62 and have scored 12 in last 3 head to heads. 1.3 over 1.5 goals worth a shot given Wigan have score drawn a lot against top flight at home.
- England v France at 1.46 - prefer to trade though.
- heerenveen at 1.71 against Willem II - Willem have won 1 all season and while Heerenveen are not the best away, they could score first at least to ensure a drop in odds.
- laying Wales at Italy at 1.22 with trading in mind
And better, more obvious bets such as
- Fenerbahce against bottom side who concede regularly -over 1.5 goals might be safer but home advantage must tell surely against a very poor away side.
- Bollin Felix - "confirmed mudlark" at Newcastle at around 1.17 in a race where 4 are under 33/1 should place with ground in favour
*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa - back Fenerbahce in the match odds at 1.23 home. I wanted to go with over 1.5 goals but the market does not have enough money in it. reasons for over 1.5 goals? Bback over 1.5 goals at 1.19 but only £952 available. Fenerbahce average 2.46 goals at home, Kasimpasa away are 80% over 2.5 goals, and total goals in Kasimpasa's recent matches have been ,4,3,4,3,2,4,3,4,4 . Fenerbahce have scored 4,3,5,and an anomolous 1 against bottom 4 sides at home.
As you can appreciate this is a bumper day so do fill yer boots if some of the arguments I put forward resonate with you.
Job done with the Cottbus match - 2-1 final scoreline but a ropey first half which saw no goals.
1pm - H Rostock v Babelsberg - in play - 1.43 home - German 3 Liga
The key here is whether we can class Leicester (7th) with the top 6 , all of whom Coventry have lost against home and away.
415 NAVAN - around 1.08 to place the front 2 in what is pretty much a 2 horse race for 2 places , albeit in heavy ground in Ireland.
1pm - Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Vidima Rakovski - 1.23 home - - in play - Bulgarian Premier - Fancy backing a team with this recent form? LLWLLLLDD - yes in friendlies as this seems to be the start of the Bulgarian season, but that's poor recent form.
Head to heads tell you why they are so short - 4-0, 3-0, 6-1 , 1-1, 3-3 latest. The 3-3 was in a friendly in 2010.
Vidima have only won 2 in their last 12.
3pm - AFC Wimbledon v Altrincham - 1.33 home - match odds and over/under 2.5 goals only available.
3pm - Aston Villa v Blackburn - 1.8 home - mixed bag here with head to heads and the feeling that the best performers on the day will take the points. 16th against 11th.
5 wins, 5 draws , 3 defeats at home for Aston Villa. More likely not to lose.Losses against 2nd, 4th and 7th in the league only at home. Does this suggest those outside the top 7 are easier for Villa to deal with at home.
It is difficult to weight up these 2 teams as they each have had managerial changes which means the form shown prior to the management changes may not reflect the team nowadays.
Villa are where they are because they have lost 8 and drawn 1 away to top 11 sides.
DDWDLWLLWD at home recently
I do not normally choose these odds matches because there are very rarely patterns and sequences and this is the case with Villa.
3 of Villa's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. The other was a 1-1 draw at Blackpool which was actually a profitable over 2.5 goal trade given the early times of the 2 goals.
Blackburn away to bottom 8 ( of which Villa is one) have only played 3 matches, losing 2 of them to 15th and 18th, and beating West Brom 1-3. All matches were over 2.5 goals.
Blackburn have not kept a single clean sheet away from home and 77% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Blackburn have not had a draw away in 11 matches. They have the better patterns and sequences than Villa and we may have to rely on Blackburn.
Blackburn have conceded an average of 2.38 goals away from home in each match. It gets interestinger and interestinger!!!
9 defeats, 1 draw and 3 wins only away for Blackburn.
LLLWLLL last 7 away matches for Blackburn makes them more and more opposable don't you think?
Watch out for the 1st quarter of an hour of the 2nd half where Blackburn concede most of their goals.
Watch out for the 1st quarter of an hour of the 2nd half where Blackburn concede most of their goals.
3pm - Crawley Town v Barrow - 1.33 home - blue square premier and limited markets
3pm - Everton v Sunderland - 1.78 home - 14th against 7th. Everton have won the last 2 head to heads 2-0 and 3-0 at Everton. At Sunderland, there have been 2 draws in head to heads. Everton have lost at home to Arsenal, West Brom and Newcastle. WWDLLDWDW - unbeaten in last 4
5 of Everton's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. The last match was a 2-0 away loss to Bolton which was a successful overs trade given the goal times.
Look at last quarter of an hour. Everton scored 13 of their goals in this time period.
Sunderland are a solid 7th which is good for Steve Bruce. 2-2 in last match at Sunderland.
Sunderland's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
LDLWWL last 6 away matches for Sunderland. 5 losses only away for Sunderland and 3 come in the last 6 matches - cause for concern?
The opponent leads at half time in only 11% of Sunderlands matches.
3pm - Falkirk v Cowdenbeath - 1.42 home - Scottish first division - only match odds and overs and not in running
3pm - Fleetwood Town v Eastbourne - 1.34 home - Blue square - limited markets
3pm - Leicester v Coventry - 1.53 home - I did the stats last week for Leicester so they are nice and familiar to me. 7th v 16th - 7 wins in 8 for Leicester ended with a loss to Cardiff last time out. Only 2 losses at home for Leicester , one against top side.
WWWDWWWW at home -last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals at home.Leicester score an average of 2 at home and concede an average of 1.06 which makes for a natural over 2.5 goal!!
1-1 in recent head to heads. 3 draws on the trot in head to heads.
Coventry have played 6 at home and 5 away from home against the top 6 and lost the lot , which is a great plus for Leicester backers.
Leicester are 7th though and there was that 1-1 draw.
LLLDLDLLLWL for Coventry in recent matches - only 1 win.
WDLLLL away for Coventry latest
No win in 5 and no draw in 4 for Coventry away from home.
The key here is whether we can class Leicester (7th) with the top 6 , all of whom Coventry have lost against home and away.
3pm - Newcastle v Bolton - 2.14 home - 9th v 8th and likely to be a well matched match. Prior to the 5-1 Bolton demolition last time out, 3 of the head to heads were 0-0, 1-0, 1-0.
Newcastle are unbeaten in 7 matches WWDDLDDW so it seems Pardew has them tough to beat. They only went down 1-0 to Fulham. Newcastle have lost to 10th, 11th and 12th at home and , apart from Man City, have drawn 3 and won 2 at home to top 7 sides. So which way will it be with 8th placed Bolton?
Another side with a natural over 2.5 goals average at home, scoring an average of 2.3 and conceding an average of 1.46.
Home helps for the Geordies. 71% of their goals have been scored at home.
Only 3 of Bolton's last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Do not expect a 5-1 win over Newcastle today. Once battered, teams tend to tighten up considerably. So bolton should find it more difficult.
Bolton have kept no clean sheets away from home this season, which hints at an over 1.5 goals bet straight away.
LLDLLWLW - last 2 wins have come at home - recent form littered with losses.
LLLLLL away from home latest for Bolton, they are literally leaking points away, yet remain 8th in the league!
Bolton have lost all matches played against top 10 sides away from home.
Bolton come alive in the 2nd half scoring and conceding around 70% of goals.
The last half hour sees a particularly potent bolton side, scoring 22 goals. But beware the last 1/4 hour where they have conceded 13.
If 0-0 at half time, then traders get ready for potential action in the 2nd half
3pm - Southampton v Swindon - 1.39 home - unmanaged in play. 5th v 21st of 24 in League 1. Unmanaged means, I think, that there will be no suspend after a goal so it's like the Wild West, fastest finger wins and can get some juicy odds from the slow coaches who don't cancel their bets after a goal. So Southampton are 1.39 at home , and it is not because of the head to heads, which are 1-0 Swindon win, 1-0 Swindon win, 3-0 Swindon win ( JP trophy), 1-0 Swindon win.
You have been warned if you take the 1.39 about Soton that they may be playing a bogey side.
A win could take Saints as high as 3rd with superior goal difference and based on Huddersfield and Peterborough.
Saints have lost 3 at home but have not played all of bottom 4 , only bottom side at home who they beat well.
For a side with +29 goal difference, only 33% of their matches at home have been over 2.5 goals.
WWWDLWWDW recently at home for Saints - only 1 loss.
In the 46th to 75th minute, Saints have scored 25 goals so watch out for sparks in the 2nd half ( BUT remember they have not scored against Swindon in last 4 matches)
Swindon have only 2 wins away and you would think they could not shut out Saints again in current form?
LLLDDLDLLL for Swindon recently They have not won in 10 matches overall, and no draw in 7 matches away from home.
LWLLLLL away for Swindon recently.
If you fancy Saints today, I would think a 1-0 cover ( Swindon win) might allay fears regarding the head to heads.
80% of Swindon's away matches have been over 2.5 goals and they concede an average 2.26 goals away.
What will prevail? 67% home under or 80% away overs?
How significant are the head to heads?
3pm - Wigan v Man Utd - 1.62 away - 18th v 1st in the Premiership. Must wins for both sides but for differing reasons.
A perfect 6 from 6 for United in head to heads includes 5,5,2 scored to no reply in the 3 most recent head to heads. A win takes Wigan to 30 points along with another load of teams ( some of which may rise dependent on their results) Likely the Wigan manager has factored this match in as a loser given the head to heads. 5 score draws and 3 losses at home to top 10 this season. Yes, score draws which should indicate over 1.5 goals bet immediately. Losses to Man City and a 2-2 away draw for Arsenal are the home matches with the top 4. Nothing much to conclude bar over 1.5 goals on both occasions.
DDWDDLDLW - the most recent win a 4-3 humdinger. 3 wins only at home, 2 came against West Brom and Wolves - hardly inspiring.1.41 scored on average and 1.85 conceded on average at home for Wigan.
Wigan have led at half time in only 11% of their matches this season.
3 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat away for Man Utd.DDDWDWL away recently for Man Utd and Wolves halted the unbeaten run.
United have only conceded 7 in the first half this season.United concede a whopping 72% of their goals in the second half of matches.
3pm - Wolves v Blackpool - 1.88 home - bottom plays 12th in the league and Blackpool must be very happy with their win over Spurs at home. Only one premiership meeting and that was the inevitable over 2.5 goals at Blackpool - 2-1 to the Tangerines. 6 of Wolves' 7 wins have come at home which is some slight encouragement for a team who look down.
LLWWLWLW at home -no draw in 9 at home for Wolves and unlikely we will see another draw as they need 3 points and would have this match targeted against fellow promoted side.
Jekyll and Hyde - wins at home against City, United, Liverpool, but against bottom 4, have lost 2 and drawn 1.
80% of Wolves points come at home which tells you how important home matches have become. Like all promoted sides, Wolves concede a huge amount in the last 1/4 hour ( 14 goals) - Blackpool concede 17 in the last quarter of an hour.
So, if this is tight come the 75th minute, if it is a draw, lay the draw.
DDWWLLL for Blackpool away from home.
LLWLLLLLDW in all matches for Blackpool. A huge amount of defeats addressed in last 2 matches. Against bottom 7 away from home for Blackpool,it's 4 losses, 4-0 win over Wigan and 0-0 draw with WEst Ham.
Blackpool concede an average of 1.92 goals away from home.
8 of Blackpool's last 9 matches have all been over 2.5 goals ( and the other was a 1-1 which I already mentioned was a successful over 2.5 goal trade)
I must add that only 2 of those matches were away from home!!
420pm - Plzen v Hradec Kralove - 1.36 home - Czech top flight - only match odds and 2.5 goals market
445pm - FC Zurich v Bellinzona - 1.37 home - tend to be good for goal trends do the home team. Last 3 matches for Zurich have been successful over 2.5 goals trades ( one 2-0 but 2 goals scored in 20 minutes)
Bellinzona not as prolific conceders as St Gallen last week.
5pm - Atl Madrid v Sevilla - 2.2 home - 9th v 7th - Sevilla have won 5 of the 6 head to heads and have won the last 3 head to heads ( including a cup match)
Madrid have lost all 4 of the matches they have played against top 6 sides at home. Again Sevilla are that niggly 7th - can we lump them in with the top teams?Madrid lost 3-1 at Sevilla which might open up a neutral goals bet as they scored in 3 of the 4 matches they played at home to top 6 sides.
WLWDWLL at home for Madrid recently.
LWLLLLW recently overall. No draw in 7 matches for Madrid and they don't do draws in their head to heads with Sevilla.
MAdrid are consistent scorers over the 90 minutes
Only 1 draw away for Sevilla in 11 matches again hints at a lay the draw?
LWLLWDL recently away from home. LAst 3 away matches have seen 5,6,5 goals.
Sevilla have conceded in all away matches this season, so this may point at an over 1.5 goals bet or a lay the draw again?
6 of the 8 matches for Sevilla away to outside-the-top-8 sides have produced over 2.5 goals. The other 2 matches were 2-0's and thus tradable 2.5 goals bets.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa - 1.24 home - 3-0, 1-3 ( Kas win) , 0-1 ( fen away win) , 2-6 ( fen away win) in head to heads.
2 points behind leaders for Fener and you would expect them to win when priced to do so. Kasimpasa are the bottom side.
Fener are unbeaten at home this season .No defeat in 11 at home and no draw in 6 matches.
9 wins and a loss in last 10 matches and the last 6 matches have all been wins.
An average of 2.46 goals this season at home scored by Fener is very respectable. Against the bottom 6 at home,4-0, 3-0, 5-2, and an anomolous 1-0 win. The general trend though seems to be towards goals.
3 wins only this season for kasimpasa and how important is it that 2 of those wins have come away and home in their last 2 matches against 11th and 12th in the league. Kasimpasa have only played one of the top 4 away , losing 2-1. 80% of their matches have finished over 2.5 goals away from home
Kasimpasa have conceded in all bar the first match of the season away from home.
In their away matches, total goals of 0,4,3,4,3,2,4,3,4,4 - the last 4 saw Kasimpasa score 3 goals.
Add Fenerbahce's 2.46 goal average at home with Kasimpasa's 80% over 2.5 goals and what do we have? Goals I hope.
Average goals conceded away from home for Kasimpasa - 2.1 - quite an average.
530pm - B Munich v Dortmund - 1.85 home - 3rd v top should be a good match. WWWL for Munich in head to heads 2-0 loss at Dortmund this season.
Dortmund have only lost 2 matches this season, one on the opening day and one away 1-0 to Frankfurt.
Dortmund have a superb away record this season, scoring 2 or more in 10 of their 12 away matches . Superb form.
Dortmund have only conceded 7 goals in the first 75 minutes of all of their matches this season! They are the Germand Barca ( well , sort of, ish)
WWWWWWWWLWWD - away stats - yes a sign in last 4 of potential vulnerability with dropped points twice.
Last 7 matches might show some vulnerability for Dortmund? - LWDWDDW ( the 7 matches before these were WWWWWWW in contrast)
Is the pressure beginning to tell for Dortmund?
Dortmund score an average 2.33 goals in each away match!
They score first in 73% of all of their matches.
A 7 match winning run sees Bayern scooting their way up the table. And check out the scorelines - 3-0, 4-2, 3-0, 4-1, 3-0, 5-1, 4-0.
Quite superb consistent goalscoring at home by Bayern and they are clearly in the groove.
7 of bayern's last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3,5,1,5,3,2,4,3 the goals scored by Bayern recently.
In all 8 matches against top 13 sides at home, the matches have all finished over 2.5 goals.
Difficult to gauge against the very top as they have not met leaders or 2nd placed at home yet.
82% of Bayern's home matches are over 2.5 goals.
They average 2.63 at home. Will Dortmund still average 2.33 away today? If so, then it will be a goal fest.
No draw in 8 for Bayern.
And the match which preceded the start of their 7 match home winning streak? A 2-0 loss away at Dortmund! Perfect symmetry today if Dortmund defeat Bayern at home.
Should be a humdinger of a match but difficult to predict as it is 3rd against 1st and quite clearly 2 hugely inform teams both overall and home team at home and away team away are rock solid!
530pm - Panathinaikos v Atromitos - 1.36 home - greek top flight - 10 point 2nd in the league and must win if they are to have any realistic hope of the Greek title.
2nd v 12th. Ahhh, good old fashioned Greeks 1-1 and 1-0 Pana win in 2010 typically Greek scorelines.
Prior to those matches, Pana scored 3 goals in each of 2 matches.
WDWWLWWWW for Pana at home recently - solid home form. Typically Greek, only 3 of Pana's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( 2 of those were last 2 matches)
Pana have, though, scored 4,2,3 in last 3 home matches which augurs well, although against bottom sides, it's either 2-1, 2-0 or 1-1 scorelines at home.
Atromitos are as Greek as they come - 30% of their matches only over 2.5 goals and 25% away. Meaning 3 out of every 4 away matches finish less than 3 goals.
Lost 2-1 away to Olympiakos is the kind of result Pana should replicate.
WWLDLWLL away for Atromitos recently saw a win against 3rd, but generally the points away are got against bottom 5 sides.
4 over 2.5 goal matches in 17 for Atromitos and 2 were away ( one was the 2-1 defeat to Olympiakos)
Slight concern this might be a typically Greek affair. If so, back 0-0 and lay Pana early in the match if atromitos play a tight Greek defensive match.
530pm - Rapid Vienna v KSV Superfund - 1.32 home - 5th v 8th and only 2 matches into the new Austrian season is maybe a little early to be getting involved.
545pm - Willem II v Heerenveen - 1.71 away - odds on shot away from home worth a look at in a league usually full of goals. 5 of 6 head to heads have been in Heerenveen's favour , scoring 3,3,3,1,4,5,. The one was in a 4-1 Willem II win.
Over 2.5 goals anyone?
-45 goal difference for Willem II sees them bottom basement.1 wins all season was at home to 14th place Vitesse 1-0 in Jan this year.
The 4 matches after this one and the 2 before were all defeats for Willem II and all over 2.5 goals. (bar one 3-3 draw)
3,2,0, 2,1,3,4 conceded by Willem II recently ( the 0 was in that win)
LLDDWD at home recently, which explains why a Heerenveen team who have spanked Willem II consistently in head to heads , are only 1.71.
The resurgence at home down to 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 scorelines , then good old Willem II 3-3 draw.
Do note ,though that the 1-1's involved huge luck for Willem II - an 89th minute equaliser and an 84th minute own goal to get the equalisers.
A concession rate at home of an average of 2.36 goals per match tells you what we should normally expect.
All of the recent home points have come against 14th, 15th and 16th in the league. Coincidence?
Heerenveen are 9th and Willem II's scorelines against 8th, 9th and 10th home and away reads thus 3-3, 3-0 , 5-0, 3-5, 3-1 - do we see a pattern?
I just feel this 1.71 is very big for Heerenveen who must score surely at some stage?
Willem II have only scored 1st in 25% of their matches this season.
The 2nd half has seen Willem II concede 40 goals!!
So are Heerenveen in form enough to spank this lot? Alas, Heerenveen are poor away from home.
LLWDDLLW - recent away win came against 11th placed Breda.
They have not played enough of the bottom sides away for me to tell you how I think they are likely to tackle Willem. 5-0 win at home - can this be replicated.
I expect overs to come in , in some form. Perhaps over 1.5 goals for safety?
645pm - Roda JC v De Graafschap - 1.59 home - eredivisie like the above match and I like the Dutch for goal trends. 7th v 12th. - unbeaten at home but 7 draws a great concern! Head to heads pretty much balanced wins for each side so tough to read and hints at a neutral bet?
DDDWDWD at home recently. Recent win and draw saw Roda score 3 and 2 against Ajax in a 2-2 draw.
6 of last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals home and away.
The only 0-0's amongst the 7 draws at home came v 1st and 2nd in the league, so we would expect a score ( well the market expects a win)
Lost 3-1 to De Graafshap away , just to complicate matters.
De Graafshap have only won 2 away matches, both 1-0 and against 15th and 18th (bottom) so hardly compelling evidence for a repeat of the 3-1 win against Roda at their ground.
Outside of the bottom 4, De Graaf have conceded at least 2 in all of their away matches. 4 of those were 2-0 defeats which explains the relatively poor away 2.5 goal stat.
You would not be surprised to learn they concede an average of 2.08 every away match.
They have only scored 7 goals in the first half all season which hints at backing Roda to open the scoring?
LWLLWLL has seen 4 2-0 scorelines - the only times De Graaf scored were in the 1-0 wins against 15th and bottom.
Despite the topsy turvy head to heads where one team does not dominate over another, I would suspect Roda will take advantage of a poor travelling De Graafshap?
Safety first - consider a neutral goals bet.
7pm - Mallorca v Barcelona - 1.41 away - due deference to Mallorca that Barca are relatively big. Mallorca had a fearsome reputation last year for solidity at home. Has that continued? 11th v top. -6 v +60 goals difference.
1-1, 2-1 ( Mallorca home win) , 1-0 barca away win in last 3 head to heads at Mallorca.
2010 matches were tight - 1-0 win for barca and 1-1 last time out.
So , where Barca have been 1.16 in recent weeks, they are now 1.41 because the market feels there will be an element of frustration from Mallorca.
mallorca still retain some solidity at home with 7 wins, 2 draws and only 3 losses , 2 1-0 losses and a 4-0 loss to Gijon.
WLWDWLWWLW - threatening a winning sequence but not quite.
Mallorca have scored 0,0,0,1,1,0 in their last 6 home and away. Trouble scoring goals at the moment?
At home to Real Madrid, Mallorca managed a 0-0 which shows you how they can perform to full potential.
3rd October saw a 1-1 draw at the Nou Camp.
A pattern emerging isn't there?
Only 33% of home matches are over 2.5 goals. No draw in 6 at home for MAllorca, but I suggest they'd take a home draw against barca.
16 match winning run for Barca ended with a 1-1 draw against Gijon and continued with a win against Blibao last match.
11 matches away without defeat for barca.
82% of away matches over 2.5 goals for Barca. They have scored in all away matches this season.
They average a remarkable 3.36 goals per game away from home and have scored 2,3,8,3,5,4,3,1 away recently.
Only 6 goals conceded by Barca in the first half all season, and 13 all season -again remarkable.
745pm - Juventus v Bologna - 1.5 home - 7th v 12th - only 3 losses at home for Juve but 2 of them came in last 4 home matches.
Juve have scored in all home matches this season which could help neutral over 1.5 goals bet already.
WWWDWD in head to heads favour Juve.
Juve have lost 5 of their last 9 matches which is a bit of a rough patch.
75% of Juve's home matches has seen over 2.5 goals.
They have scored in all of their home matchesDDWLWLW at home recently, Juve score on average exactly 2 goals at home.
0-0 away to Bologna earlier in the season, and against 11th - 14th in the league ( bologna are 12th) - all matches home and away have been draws. Coincidence?
6 defeats and 2 draws against top 10 sides away from home for Bologna. They look layable, but are Juve backable?
LLWDWLDL away recentl for Bologna.
3 of Bologna's last 4 matches have been 1-0's ( but 3 at home)
815pm - Olhanense v Porto - 1.47 away - 8th v top and runaway leaders at present and a team who are utterly dependable ( or have been so far this season)
Olhanense are interestingly unbeaten at home, hence the uncertain 1.47 quote for Porto.4 wins and 5 draws at home.DDDWD at home last 5 for Olhanense. They have not played the top 2 at home yet, but drew with 3rd and 4th - only 1/3rd of Olh's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. They have only conceded 18 goals all season which signals a defensive outlook. They have only scored 19 all season too. Only 2 of Olh's last 12 matches have finished over 2.5 goals.
The ideal I feel for Olhanense in this match is a draw.
18 wins and 2 draws for Porto this season in the league. The only times they seem to lose are when they switch off in the Cup competitions.
The 2 draws were 1-1 and away from home.
No defeat in 9 matches away for Porto.
Porto have scored in all matches this season home and away. Amazingly only 11% of Porto's away matches have been over 2.5 goals . This signals a good defence away from home. Indeed Porto have kept a clean sheet away in 78% of their matches. They only concede 0.22 goals away from home on average.
The only away draws for Porto came against 3rd and 4th - coincidence or simply acknowledging that Porto are trustworthy against those outside the top 4 away.
All wins for Porto away have been to nil - 1-0 and 2-0 prevail with only one 3-0 scoreline.
Porto have conceded 2 and scored 27 in the first half and have conceded 5 and scored 19 in the second half. Defence is king for Porto .
Porto score first in 90% of their matches and lead at half time in 85% of their matches.
We can see here a team who do not lose, facing a team who do not lose at home!
9pm - Deportivo v Real Madrid - 1.45 away - a Barca win earlier in the evening will signal a stronger likelihood of Real at least leading at some stage in this away fixture. At time of writing it's a 5 point difference. Most likely to be an 8 point difference if Barca continue along their merry way. The away match against Almeria was where Jose pretty much said goodbye to the title, but a small lifeline given by the Barca draw with Gijon.
This is 13th v 2nd. 4 out of 4 for Real in 2009 and 2010 head to heads scoring 3,3,6 in their last 3 head to heads.
Only 1 win in last 7 for Depor and they are in current poor form. At home, though, they have only lost 2 matches, a 4-0 defeat by Barca and 2-0 defeat by Almeria way back in Sept 2010. So, with the Barca loss rather inevitable, that is good form at home. 4 wins and 5 draws at home in the remaining fixtures.
WWWDLDW recently at home- the loss, as hinted, was when Barca visited.
Against the big boys it is inconclusive at home, with Real visiting today, Valencia yet to visit, the Barca loss ( tells us nothing) and a 1-0 win when Villareal visited.
Depor have only scored 7 goals in the first half of their league matches this season - shocking goals ratio.By the same token, they have only conceded 9 all season in the first half, which may hint at an early lay of Real at 1.45.
No significant goal trends - 45% overs at home for Depor.
Only 2 losses for Real both came away from home to Barca and Osasuna.
WWWLWWDLW away recently for Real. Note the DL in 2 of last 3 away matches. Only 1 of Real's last 5 matches has been over 2.5 goals. Last 3 aways have been 1-1, 1-0 , 0-1 - tight and nervy affairs it would seem.
Amazingly, Real concede an average 1.08 goals away from home ( but the 5-0 loss to Barca may give a false average there)
Real drew with Mallorca away (11th) and lost to Osasuna (14th) and Depor are 13th - trouble with teams in this part of the league?
No sign of hangovers after Champions League matches for Real. Only defeat was via Barca.
Real have conceded only 7 in the first half all season, scoring 25 goals in the process. The likely first half scorers ( if any) would seem to be Real.
50/50 overs/unders stats home and away for Real make them unreadable in that regard.
6 nations
230pm - Italy v Wales - 1.21 away - egg chasing today and can Italy continue their inimitable charge towards the Wooden Spoon?
5pm - England v France - 1.46 home - France concede tries and this should make the 1.46 at least tradable if not backable as a bet and go bet.
225 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Captain Chris, 7/2 American Trilogy, 13/2 Adams Island.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless his jumping crumbles under the pressure supplied by Adams Island blazing off in front, CAPTAIN CHRIS should be too good for American Trilogy and break the Nicholls stranglehold on this race.[Paul Johnson]
3 horses , and 2 places sees Captain Chris dominate in this novices chase.
205 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 C´est Ca, 9/2 Paradis De Thaix, 5/1 Cross Appeal, 12/1 Harold´s Cross, 12/1 Hotterthanjuly, 14/1 Doc O´donnell, 14/1 Powerfulpaddy, 14/1 The Big Boyo, 16/1 Pistol Jack, 20/1 Novedevichy, 20/1 Qoubilai, 20/1 Ricardian, 20/1 Sea Stallion, 20/1 Theres One For You, 33/1 City Of Doral, 33/1 Hawks Cliff.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This beginners' chase lacks strength in depth and the Willie Mullins-trained C'EST CA makes most appeal at her fourth attempt over fences from Paradis De Thaix and Cross Appeal. [Brian Fleming]
Heavy ground beginners chase sees Mullins/Townend C'est Ca capable enough. I wouldn't normally consider a beginners chase in Ireland in heavy, but Mullins may persuade me otherwise
415 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Western Charmer, 2/1 Tharawaat, 3/1 Sam Adams, 33/1 Flying Windsor.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Western Charmer, placed in a Grade 1 over this journey at Christmas, holds the edge on figures, rated 8lb and 9lb respectively of THARAWAAT and Sam Adams. Gordon Elliott's challenger is tackling this longer trip for the first time and with improvement likely he shades the verdict. [Brian Fleming]
3 horses and 2 places now with Sam Adams a non runner. Quite simply if Western or Tharawaat complete, they will place in this novices chase.
350 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bollin Felix, 11/4 Shadows Lengthen, 6/1 Flicka´s Witness, 13/2 Paddy Partridge, 20/1 Ananda Kanda, 66/1 Napoletano, 66/1 Stanley Bridge, 100/1 Rock Port, 100/1 Roslin Moss.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the going so much in his favour and quite probably against at least two of his more credible opponents, it's hard to get away from BOLLIN FELIX, who was miles ahead of Shadows Lengthen on bad ground here this month.[Paul Johnson]
When it's heavy ground you either go with a horse proven on heavy or ignore the card totally.
If seems as if Bollin Felix likes heavy and as the fav and only one of 4 under 33/1, he looks solid place only material.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Wigan v Man Utd - 1.62 away - 6/6 in head to heads, scoring 12 goals. It is often difficult to gauge post transfer window as there is usually new personnel - United backable at 1.62 given their superior first half record? 1.32 over 1.5 goals.
Over 1.5 goals safe enough with Wigan's propensity to score draw against top half teams?
5pm - Atl Madrid v Sevilla - 2.2 home - over 1.5 goals here? Sevilla have conceded in all away matches this season - 1.3 over 1.5 goals.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa - 1.24 home - you would expect a home win against bottom side who see 80% of their away matches finish over 2.5 goals - 1.19 over 1.5 goals
530pm - B Munich v Dortmund - 1.85 home - rock solid home side at home play rock solid away side away from home. What will give? Does this make for a neutral goals bet? Or will they cancel each other out?
545pm - Willem II v Heerenveen - 1.71 away - rumours of a Willem II revival seem greatly exaggerated when you note which teams they were against. Surely they are vulnerable today and goals look the call. 1.2 over 1.5 goals here. Do not be swayed by apparent changes in fortune. Heerenveen look backable here as a back to lay trade.
7pm - Mallorca v Barcelona - 1.41 away - faith in Barcelona? 1.22 under 4.5 goals could be worth chancing today.
815pm - Olhanense v Porto - 1.47 away - the stats point to a potentially tight match with Porto likely to be the first goalscorers.
230pm - Italy v Wales - 1.21 away - 1.21 looks layable here for Wales - I am sure we will see some kind of a display from the Italians.
5pm - England v France - 1.46 home - England look backable here and should lead at some stage for a reasonable trade.
350 NEWCASTLE - only 4 under 33/1 here makes a Bollin Felix who, we are told, loves heavy, a great place only bet at 1.17 in a hurdles race ( preferable to chases for me) - "confirmed mud lark" - I hope so!!
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Wigan v Man Utd - 1.62 away - may not be a one a day but surely United can score against Wigan - and perhaps take the lead? They scored 12 in last 3 head to heads. Over 1.5 goals is 1.3 considering Wigan have scoredrawn so many against the top teams at home.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa - 1.24 home - always a likelihood you can be bitten on the arse in these apparent obvious matches when opposing bottom sides. But Fener are in form, and Kasimpasa concede away with regularity.
I suppose a safer bet would be over 1.5 goals at 1.19 as it is a neutral bet and covers any surprises.
545pm - Willem II v Heerenveen - 1.71 away - now on the face of it Willem II look to have put together something of a mini revival at home but look at the quality ( or rather lack of) of the opposition in which they got the win and 2 draws, and look at the huge dose of luck required to draw 1-1 on both occasions - a 90th minute winner and 84th minute own goal equaliser.
What we need to know is whether a poor away side like Heerenveen can exploit a poor side overall with only 1 win all season. 1.71 looks big and could be speculated on as a back to lay trade perhaps, hoping Heerenveen score first. They will be boosted by last away match - a 2-0 win.
7pm - Mallorca v Barcelona - 1.41 away - I foresee a tough frustrating evening in store for Barca this evening ( cue a Messi hatrick after 2 minutes) and 1.22 under 4.5 goals looks of some appeal for a MAllorca side with a reputation as hard to beat at home , and a Barca side most unconvincing against Ath Bilbao and Gijon recently.
815pm - Olhanense v Porto - 1.47 away - we must acknowledge that the home team are unbeaten at home this term, but 7 draws tells you a story. Porto average over 2 goals scored away and must be good candidates to open the scoring this evening you would think? Back to lay trade or NEXT GOAL bet?
230pm - Italy v Wales - 1.21 away - 1.21 layable initially if Italy show what they showed against Ireland.
5pm - England v France - 1.46 home - England look backable initially as surely they must lead at some stage at Twickenham against a France side who have conceded tries readily. England's Chris Ashton will be waiting .
415 NAVAN - a clear round should suffice for the front 2 Tharawaat and Western charmer - the only 2 horses who should be involved. These are the only 2 horses under 25/1
Possibles? Choose one of the 2 in the win only market at around evens and back to lay trade
Look at the forecast - likely 3-2 or 2-3
1.08 to place either of the 2.
1.17 is reasonable and if the market does not increase in liquidity then consider Betfair SP.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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