24/2

Having done my research, it's back to the footy this evening and Zenit or Man City. There are compelling cases for both, but it is City's opponent's and their poor recent goal scoring record both overall and away that leans me towards Man City. The 0-0 away leg had stats on its side, as Aris were rock solid in Europe, unbeaten last 27 at their ground.

At City, it should be a different story.

*****ONE A DAY - 805pm - Man City v Aris Thes. - Back Man City in the match odds at 1.23 currently. Now if you wanted some added security ( as this is a Greek side), back 0-0 as an insurance bet. For example, backing City at 1.23 for £100, I would back correct score 0-0 at odds of 19.5 for around £6.

Aris's goalscoring is poor and City are mean at the back and should have the forward capabilities to make a breakthrough at some stage at home. Also, this is a must win really as a 0-1 or 1-1 puts Aris through.

It just had the feeling of " morning after the night before" for Arsenal yesterday, a most unconvincing 1-0 win, but a win none the less and the goal came in that critical period where Arsenal have never conceded this season and Stoke have never scored this season ( the first quarter hour)

Europa 2nd legs today, so any betting must account for the "first half" score.

4pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Young Boys - 1.43 home - away side in a league of 10 should be easy pickings for Zenit. A red card in the 69th minute for Zenit and a 94th minute winner flatters the 2-1 home win in the first leg. Zenit scored first within 19 minutes.

Zenit have the away goal so need a 1-0 to go through (bare minimum) . The Swiss league looks back after a break so Young Boys likely to be a littlering rusty. Zenit have also been playing club friendlies as I presume the Russian Winter has meant an inevitable break from domestic action.

Difficult to read, this match given both sides have largely been playing friendlies, but dissecting the first leg, Zenit scored first ( as they have in their last 4 matches with goals in) , Got a man sent off and Young Boys got a Fergie-time winner.

Instinct tells me that a team from the Russian league, on a level playing field, should have too much for a Swiss team with minimal competition ( 10 team league)

6pm - Leverkusen v Metalist - 1.46 home - familiar with Leverkusen as I sniffed out over 2.5 goals trade at the weekend involving them and Stuttgart which came in in the first half. Goal loving Leverkusen put this to bed with a 4-0 away leg round so beware a severe lack of motivation for this home match. A 0-0, or even 3-0 loss sees them through!! 0,1,0,1,1, the goals scored by Metalist in their last 5 away matches.

6pm - Liverpool v Sparta Prague - 1.47 - no coincidence that a few of these matches are just below 1/2. This reveals a little uncertainty with the favs . 0-0 from a poor first leg. All to play for here for both teams. Remember that Sparta are in the driver's seat, only needing to score 1 goal and the game to finish 0-1 or 1-1 for them to go through on away goals.

This should be accounted for by Liverpool with an ultra defensive set up and the need to score first.

Sparta's last league match was November 2010 , since when they have largely been playing friendlies. 5 of the last 6 away matches finished over 2.5 goals with the other finishing 0-2. What we make of this I don't know as the teams Sparta played are not Premiership equivalent.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 7 matches, and have only lost one at home in last 12 in all competitions ( 1-0 Wolves win)

Liverpool have scored in 10 of their last 12 in all competitions at home, failing to score against Utrecht and Wolves.

805pm - Man City v Aris Thes. - 1.23 home - the first leg was a match featuring a typically Greek side being typically Greek at home. Face it, in their economy they can't afford to buy a goal. Aris have been rock solid at home, but now, away, they are suddenly huge underdogs.Check out Aris's recent goal scoring record in all competitions - 1,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0 - yes they must have drunk some Lucozade to wake them up from their slumbers 4 matches ago as they suddenly scored 2.

3,1,0,0,2,0, scored away recently - 3 against a spluttering Ath Madrid and the 2 I refer to above.

6 match winning streak for Man City, 8 wins in last 9, at home, and a Dzecko who needs a goal and was so close in Thessolonika.

Again Aris need a 0-1 or 1-1 to go through, but 0,0,2,0, goals scored away in last 4 does not augur well against the Sheikh's men.

Positives - Man City, like Liverpool, must score more than Aris - simple!

805pm - Paris St-G v BATE Borisov - 1.46 home - 2-2 first leg and 2 away goals for PSG. They only need a 0-0, 1-0 bare minimum to go through. BATE lost 3-0 to AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League away . Since coming through qualifying it has been draw loss loss in the Europa League away for BATE.

6 wins and 3 draws at home since a loss to Auxerre in October 2010 shows good form for PSG.

250 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Flinty Bay, 5/1 The Galloping Shoe, 6/1 Proud Times, 7/1 Next To Nowhere, 10/1 Toledo Gold, 14/1Trucking Along, 20/1 Arran Law, 20/1 Scottish Affair, 33/1 Forcefield, 50/1 Oh Landino, 100/1 Legbeforewicket, 100/1 Lucky Belle, 100/1 Sweetaboutme, 200/1 Cigalas.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Galloping Shoe and Proud Times could make a race of it but FLINTY BAY has been a little unlucky not to have won already and deserves another chance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 16/1 and you should automatically be looking for an each way value alternative. Flinty Bay is 1/2 now and strongly fancied here to at least place as he has done with regularity recently.

Only one run on soft and illustrious owners ( Magnier and Tabor)

325 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rival D´estruval, 9/2 Forestside, 5/1 And The Man, 5/1 Inoogoo, 12/1 Ballycarron Lad, 14/1Katapult, 16/1 Watch Closely Now, 20/1 Maid In Moscow, 50/1 Lay De Brook, 50/1 Lewlaur Supreme, 50/1 Still Calm, 100/1 Indian Snow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forestside could be interesting if the market indicates that his recent run in Ireland was needed but the other eyecatching piece of form is the second of RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL at Carlisle, where he chased home a horse of immense potential on similar ground to that he'll face here but didn't have when a beaten favourite next time.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

A maiden hurdle so the market will play a part. And the Man is a big mover into 5/2 2nd fav.

840 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Reachforthebucks, 6/1 Snow Trooper, 8/1 Luckbealadytonight, 12/1 Beating Harmony, 16/1Reachtothestars.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REACHFORTHEBUCKS (nap) has to prove himself on this different surface, but is hard to oppose despite a double penalty in his quest to make it 3-3 since joining Michael Wigham. Snow Trooper can give him most to do. [Dave Orton]

Loves Southwell - can Reach for the bucks transfer to Kempton's all weather surface?

240 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Eton Fable, 9/4 Grand Vizier, 5/1 Royal Holiday, 10/1 Sir Haydn, 14/1 Credential, 16/1 Doric Echo, 66/1 Byron Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Grand Vizier has looked a shadow of his former self this winter, often blowing it at the start, and he looks opposable upped in trip and switched to Fibresand. ETON FABLE didn't do much wrong here last week and looks the safest option in a weak contest.[Paul Smith]

3 under 16/1 here - can we trust Eton Fable, the market leader, to place in the first 2? Has experience at Southwell

330 THURLES

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bishopsfurze, 3/1 Hidden Cyclone, 8/1 Pineau De Re, 10/1 Crash, 12/1 Down In Neworleans, 12/1Skorcher, 20/1 Smokey Joe Joe, 20/1 The Pier.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BISHOPSFURZE has won five of his seven starts so far, including over 2m6f here last month, and despite the obvious concern about his jumping technique he still makes most appeal over Leopardstown Grade 2 winner Hidden Cycloneand Pineau De Re. [Brian Fleming]

Ground concerns as ever at Thurles, but Hidden cyclone has taken over favouratism - significant? Great place only race as there are 8 runners and 3 places.

400 THURLES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Celtic Folklore, 6/1 Country Flora, 6/1 Moscow Storm, 7/1 Zagman, 8/1 Celtic Wish, 8/1 Hevelius, 14/1 Blarney Highwayman, 14/1 Vindsval, 14/1 What An Flyer, 14/1 Wise Oscar, 20/1 Catu, 25/1 Storm Breaker, 50/1 Bobs Way, 50/1 Home By The Brook, 50/1 Play The Wing, 50/1 Shakas Rock, 50/1 Share The News, 50/1 Twin Plan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CELTIC FOLKLORE who completed a five-timer at Punchestown last month for his trainer Willie Mullins is difficult to oppose on his jumping bow with Moscow Storm and Celtic Wish two possible dangers. [Brian Fleming]

Mullins/Townend must command respect in Ireland, but Celtic is a newcomer to hurdling.

535 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mahbooba, 3/1 Khawlah, 10/1 Electric Waves, 10/1 Empire Rose, 20/1 Abtasaamah, 33/1 Quick Val, 66/1 Amica.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor has the best record in this race in Carnival history with three wins and UAE debutanteKhawlah is interesting upped to a trip that should suit after showing very useful form on turf last year. However, given every Oaks winner since 2004 had run in the UAE 1000 Guineas (three won that race), everything points to the race-fit and progressiveMAHBOOBA, whose yard took this race for the first time last year, who was a fluent winner of the Guineas last time (several of these behind), who should relish this further step up in trip and the presence of stable-mate Empire Rose should ensure this isn't a dawdle. [Richard Young]

2 under 14/1 Kwawlah is the obvious value alternative being the only other under 14/1

SHORTLIST

4pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Young Boys - 1.43 home - in these 2nd legs you are looking for teams with home advantage who must win to go through. A case in point here. Young Boys lucky 2-1 winners against 2nd half 10 man Zenit and with 94th minute winner. Extremely lucky. Zenit must score and have scored first in the last 4 matches that includes goals ( 0-0 latest).

The stronger league v 10 team competition less Swiss league should see a motivated Zenit through with 11 men and home advantage.

6pm - Liverpool v Sparta Prague - 1.47 - should see a home win, but perhaps a 0-0 cover here in what looks like a dull affair. Both sides go through with a 1-0 scoreline and Sparta go through with a 1-1. Onus on Liverpool to score first.

805pm - Man City v Aris Thes. - 1.23 home - Man City must score more than Aris. A score draw takes Aris through. The away side have a pretty poor goal scoring record of late and should pose little attacking threat.

805pm - Paris St-G v BATE Borisov - 1.46 home - 0-0 takes PSG through on away goals this evening. Solid home record against a team DLL away in the Europa League. 1-0 either side too takes them through.

250 AYR - 3 under 25/1 here should dominate 1.12 for Flinty Bay to place - slight question mark about the ground for the fav. The other 2 under 25/1 are the value alternatives of course. Proud Times 1.5 to place

840 KEMPTON - Reachforthebucks 1.33 to win again, albeit not at Southwell this time, 1.11 to place is reasonable. ? on whether his unique Southwell form is transferable on a different all weather surface.

240 SOUTHWELL - 3 under 20/1 to dominate or make a Horlicks of this seller? Eton Fable looks primed to place after solid recent efforts ( relatively speaking) and course experience. A good probability race - 1.3 to place acknowledges only 2 places and seller status.

330 THURLES - only 2 under 14/1 and significant that Hidden Cyclone has been backed into 5/4 favouratism?Illiquid place only market means perhaps Betfair SP has to be used.

535 MEYDAN - Mahbooba is strongly fancied here for Mike De Kock. Kwallah is the Godolphin newcomer to the surface with Dettori onboard. Mahbooba 1.08 to place means Kwallah at a lot higher is value but unproven

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

4pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Young Boys - 1.43 home - you would think the Russians with a full compliment of players should have too much for this Swiss side.

805pm - Man City v Aris Thes. - 1.23 home - Aris unlikely to score to be frank. City have the wherewithall surely to win, and really must win as City must show something for the money invested. Every chance of a 0-0 with Greek opponents but remember in the first leg, Aris were unbeaten in 27 or so European fixtures at home.

250 AYR - Proud Times very speculative but enticing at 1.5 to place - Flinty Bay at 1.12 far safer.

330 THURLES - slight question mark about ground but Hidden Cyclone's move into favouratism could be significant in an ideal place only race - illiquid betting market at present.

535 MEYDAN - Mahbooba might be good for the win only as his nearest market rival makes his debut on the surface this evening. No value in Mahbooba to place.

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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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