21/2

It's a tricky day today and I think I will try the tennis today. Bubka is 342nd in the World, Ljubicic is 14th in the world. You would think Ljubicic has enough here to win this Dubai Duty free first round.

It is a simplistic way to come to a conclusion and I am venturing out of the comfort zones of the horses and footy so follow me if you want or wait for normal service to be resumed tomorrow ( dependent on what the betting gods dish up)

*****ONE A DAY - DUBAI DUTY FREE 2011 MENS - 415pm ( advertised time, may run late) Bubka v Ljubicic - Back Ljubicic in the match odds at 1.18****** Only 2 sets and a hope that he wins the first so traders can get out.

Barca did the job, and slightly frustrating I went with neither halftime Barca ( 1-0) nor over 2.5 goals. Elsewhere some excellent football analysis I thought. I certainly profitted from it. Especially the Auxerre v Arles - Arles scored first , and remembering all of the 1-1 Auxerre scorelines, I layed Arles -almost as if by magic, Auxerre produced yet another 1-1 ( 8th in 13 matches now?)

5pm - Omonia v Enosis - 1.22 - in a league where APOEL lost 1-0 at home when similarly priced, we have to be careful. Still it is worth researching incase there is a noticeable dominance by the home side. Prior to the 2 latest head to heads, Ominia are clearly dominant but 2010 reverts to good old defensive Greek/Cypriot scorelines of 0-0 and 1-0 Omonia win.

This is always a concern as Apoel lost 1-0 - if Enosis can score 1, then they can shut out Omonia and come away with a nice win.

Only loss in last 12 in all competitions for Omonia came against Apoel funnily enough, and was a 1-0.

Omonia's last match was a 0-0 which does not fill me with massive confidence. 7 match winning run at home ended with that 1-0 v Apoel and resumed last match with a 2-0 win. Solid home form.

4,1,3,2,2,0,2 scored at home by Omonia in last few home matches is consistent enough.

Only 4 wins in last 12 for Enosis came at home. REcent performance LLDWLWLWL -inconsistent and no draw in 6.

LLWLDLDLL away for Enosis recently. 4 of their last 5 league matches have been over 2.5 goals.

645pm - Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah Tikva - 1.3 home - the last time I ventured to Israel, Hapoel Tel Aviv were very " readable" - will this be the case with the other well known Israeli team Maccabi Haifa. Haifa have won the last 5 head to heads , although in the league recently it is 4-0 ( away to Tikva), 3-0( home) and 0-1 ( away at Tikva) Apart from that anomolous 1-0 last time out, we see scorelines which exceed the 1.3 quote for Maccabi Haifa.

Only 1 loss in their last 25 matches is some solid stats for the home side. and unbeaten in last 17 matches in a row in all competitions and only 5 draws.

DWWWDWW at home recently scoring 0,3,3,3,2,1,1 - last 2 wins were 1-0's against 9th and 15th in the league. Slight concern with these 2 1-0's

Today's opponents are 13th in the league and note the last head to head scoreline was 1-0!!

DWLLLDLWW and those were good wins against 5th and 10th, 3-2 and 3-1.

5 of Tikva's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

We may expect a win today but it might be hard fought for the home side.?

715pm - H Berlin v Cottbus - 1.62 home - Bundesliga 2 worth investigating in a weak betting day. Top v 7th and a game in hand for Hertha Berlin. I like to look at promoted and , in this case, relegated sides, as Hertha are obviously dominating. Only 2 losses at home. WDWWWLWWL for Hertha Berlin at home recently, the 2 losses you'll note, have come in the last 4 home matches - a sign that they are declining slightly.

Cottbus are 7th - against 6th and 8th it's draw and loss at home for Hertha - a sign they find these teams difficult to beat at home. Only one draw in 11 matches at home for Hertha. Can we lay the draw?

There are stronger stats for Cottbus.82% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals and they have only kept a clean sheet in 9% of away matches.

LLWDLWLLL away for Cottbus. Cottbus have only played 2nd and 5th away and conceded 4 and 3. Are the top teams just too much for them away from home?

Average goals conceded away from home for Cottbus is a mighty 2!

3 of their 4 away wins came against the bottom 3 - any coincidence or a sign they struggle away from home.

6 of their last 7 away matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Although there are no strong trends for Hertha Berlin, Cottbus look weak away from home?

Only 1 division 2 head to head was a Hertha away win by 1-0.

8pm - West Ham v Burnley - 1.93 home - a resurgent West Ham could continue premiership dominance in this competition over the weekend?

The best stat to take out of this weekend was that all Premierleague teams in the FA Cup lead at some stage - opening things up nicely for a back to lay trade in the match odds. As surprised as I was with Stoke's odds this weekend, I am equally surprised, knee jerk reaction, with the near evens about the Hamsters at home.

The recent 3-3 comeback against West Brom must have West Ham brimming with self belief, although how anyone can get excited with grumpy old Uncle Avram is anybody's guess.

Ba got 2 goals in that comeback and make be a good signing for West ham.

WWWLWL at home last 6 matches - the 2 losses recently against Arsenal and Birmingham in the Premiership.

Only 3 wins away for Burnley in their last 12 aways in all competitions, but 2 of them came in the last 4 matches.

Do we trust the Premiership team ( albeit in the bottom 3) to get the first breakthrough? Makes the 1.93 very enticing for traders.

Looks like one of those Mondays! heavy ground at the 2 jumps venues and a probably wholly unappetising card at Wolverhampton.

210 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Storming Gale, 7/2 Senor Alco, 10/1 Gris Lord, 10/1 Jammia, 10/1 River Dragon, 12/1 Molon Labe, 20/1 Arrow Barrow, 33/1 Knockando, 66/1 Silent Snow, 100/1 Shoal Bay Dreamer, 100/1 Young Firth.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few interesting runners in Senor Alco and hurdle newcomers Gris Lord and Jammia but this is best left to Irish point winner STORMING GALE (nap), who created a most favourable impression on his hurdle debut over this trip at Ffos Las and who is open to plenty of improvement. [Richard Young]

The favourite impressed many with his performance last time out, but he is yet to encounter heavy ground.The 4/9 quote, as only 1 of 2 under 14/1, leads us to believe that heavy will not be a concern for Messrs McCain jr and Maguire. Senor Alco is the only other horse under 14/1 and an obvious each way alternative.

430 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Harry Lime, 15/8 Maher, 4/1 Strophic, 12/1 Brandy Alexander, 12/1 Crystal Sky, 20/1 Loyal N Trusted, 25/1 Khaki, 33/1 Cadgers Brig, 66/1 Stardust Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maher remains capable of better and has to be considered but Mark Johnston will know how he stands with that one having saddled Art History to beat him here last month. His HARRY LIME is an interesting newcomer who may be able to make a winning debut.[Emily Weber]

Johnston/Fanning new recruit 2nd fav to maher who is now odds on. Only 3 under 10/1 and 5 under 25/1 should be considered for the 3 places?

A maiden and Harry Lime is the only debutant.

TENNIS

In a day of limited opportunities, I notice my close tennis showbiz pal Dolgopolov is playing today and fav at 1.22 -I will list him and others of interest below.

DUBAI DUTY FREE MENS FIRST ROUND
3pm - Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych - 1.14 away - 1-0 in head to heads for Berdych is inconclusive. It seems Chardy has trouble getting past the first round in this tournaments. Berdych is 3rd seed here.

Berdych had a good Aussie Open, only succumbing to the eventual tournament winner in the quarters. 7th in the world v 51st in the world.

415pm - Bubka v Ljubicic - 1.18 away - this is 14th in the world playing number 342 in the world and is a bigger price that the Berdych match!

These 2 have never met in head to heads but you would suspect the rankings alone should ensure a comfortable win for Ivan Ljubicic? 31 years old and an unappealing recent form record, still Ivan should have too much nouse for Bubka.

ABIERTO MEXICANO MENS

1130pm - CApdeville v Dolgopolov - 1.22 away - Dolgopolov fulfilled some of the potential I noted when he played Nadal in Monte Carlo some time ago. I suspected then he would be snapped up by Nike and would be a serious contender for a Major. Well he had a superb Aussie Open losing to Andy Murray in the quarter final.he recently reached the final on clay in Brasil. He is currently doing a South American jaunt , hence arrival here in Mexico. An ATP ranking of 26 for Dolgopolov, he is usually a better betting proposition when the underdog.

171 v 26th in the rankings. I know Dolgopolov better than I know Ljubicic and although there is nowhere near as big a gap in the rankings, Dolgo is having a fine 2011.

3am - Ferrer v Ungur - 1st seed and first to 2 sets . 1.05 so should win with ease. Look to a 2-0 sets bet here to enhance the odds?

SHORTLIST

5pm - Omonia v Enosis - 1.22 - the only way I see the away side winning is with a 1 goal and park the bus and wait for 0-1 final scoreline. The asian handicaps go with goals here for Omonia and they have scored well recently at home. Difficult league to read. It is in running so an angle there, but trust the Cypriots?

8pm - West Ham v Burnley - 1.93 home - as a bettor, you either take an opinion in the Cup matches or you recognise the difficulty in solving the puzzle. The one strong stat is that all premiership teams lead at some stage, allowing a trade.

210 CARLISLE - Storming gale is one of only 2 under 14/1 and the market expects heavy ground to be no concern. 1.11 for a novice first time in heavy requires a bit of faith. Senor Alco is an appealing 1.3 as the alternative - it's all ifs and buts about the ground though which is very offputting.

430 WOLVES - Maher is 1.13 to place and newcomer ( albeit Fanning/Johnston - 28% strike rate with 3 year olds on AW) harry lime are 2 of only 3 under 20/1

3pm - Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych - 1.14 away -7th in the world v 51st in the world enough to convince us to go with tennis is a bad Monday.

415pm - Bubka v Ljubicic - 1.18 away - Ladbrokes actually have Ljubicic the same price as Berdych, but Betfair go 1.18- the compelling bit of evidence is the fact this is 14th in the world playing number 342. Surely that alone is enough to side with Ljubicic?

1130pm - Capdeville v Dolgopolov - 1.22 away - I like Dolgopolov as he has bags of potential. An illiquid betting market alas, and the gap in rankings is nowhere near as captivating as Bubka and Ljubicic's.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

415pm - Bubka v Ljubicic - 1.18 away -I cannot get past the gap in rankings - 342nd plays 14th -surely Ljubicic should dispatch of this guy in the first round. Same odds as Berdych with bookies, but better with Betfair.

Heavy ground will have to be avoided, leaving only the 410 Wolves of interest and if the market is anything to go by, this should be dominated by Maher and newcomer harry Lime. Maher has had the recent run on the all weather and that may swing things in his favour.

The football is difficult today as the leagues are obscure ( Cyprus and Israel) and my instinct would be to look at the Israeli match.

The Bundesliga 2 match would have to rely, I think, on the stats that Cottbus give us - average conceded away of 2, hints at a chance for goals and over 1.5 goals is an appealing 1.25.

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