back-lay-trade-horses-football: 4/2

Apologies for lateness of message, what could go wrong has gone wrong. Firefox lost address bar and toolbar. Internet explorer would not cut and paste and my keyboard decided not to work. But got there in the end. So what stands out - trust Bursaspor? Opponents recently have really played tight matches but I love it when teams have something really to play for ( and at home) and there's nothing better than leading the table.
Fortuna play top side Zwolle. The latter are in poor form 2011 but Fortuna have never really been in form full stop.
155 BANGOR and Whoops a daisy is obvious but Credit crunched at 1.55 to place and one of 3 under 20/1 is very appealing indeed.
Which of Join together and State benefit are the safer at soft ground Chepstow? I cannot pick between the 2.

*****ONE A DAY - 155 BANGOR - Credit crunched to place only - chance here on the betting forecast being accurate that this will be a 3 horse race ( 3 under 25/1)
This is a risky bet, so consider instead Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle over 1.5 goals as a safer alternative*****
The odds are a little high for Credit crunched and he is not the usual one a day bet but I am going to chance him improving after a 430 day return on 15th Jan. Please do the Fortuna v Zwolle if you want a safer outcome.

No real bet yesterday as I was travelling back to say, in a Nick Cotton style, "'Ello Ma!" as my Mum is a little unwell at the moment.
I can view the betting markets at the right time today and we have the 6 nations, where hopefully there will be some bets to look at.

6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - a win takes Bursaspor top , until Trabonspor win again ( if they win their next game_. This is a key game for Bursaspor with home advantage. And it will be psychologically important to be top, albeit fleetingly. 3-1, 4-0, 3-0, 2-0 in 2009 and 2010 between these 2 all in favour of Bursaspor make them strong contenders to do it again tonight.
They are playing 15th out of 18 tonight and a slight concern that , at home against 16th and 17th, Bursaspor only won 1-0. Maybe they have trouble dispatching the struggling teams at home? It must be said that they have won at home against all 3 bottom sides ( Sivaspor are 4th from bottom)
Dropped points , loss and draw, against 1st and 3rd in the league, and only other dropped points was a draw v 11th at home.
Only 33% of Bursaspor's home matches have been over 2.5 goals which suggests they lack some firepower.LWWLWWDW in last 8 matches is ok.0,2,2,0,2,5,0,2 - these are the goals scored by Bursaspor in those matches. Simply inconsistent. One week scoring 2, next week none.
As if to compound the argument for few goals, Let's look at Sivaspor's recent match scorelines, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0,1-0, 1-0, 1-1
Only 40% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. This has the feel of a tight match this evening, but then we remember the head to heads have been so emphatically in favour of Bursaspor.
Sivasspor have not won away from home, and against top 6 away have lost 6-1, 1-0, 4-1, 2-1 , so these tight scorelines seem to be occuring against lower league sides.
I would foresee a Bursaspor win tonight perhaps with a bit of a struggle.

7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - if there's no goals in this match, I will walk down my high street wearing my Mum's Sunday Best. Fortuna, you will recall, are the side who , bar one match, have had all over 2.5 goals and they now welcome the league leaders who love scoring.
Top ( + 33 goals) v Bottom (-29 goals). A severe contrast in fortunes.
Last 5 head to heads emphatically in Zwolle's favour. All bar one match at home ( and in fact home and away) has been over 2.5 goals for Fortuna. Recent home win came against bottom side, and they should concede this evening, although over 2.5 goals might be reliant solely on Zwolle.
Zwolle have lost 3 all season, and worryingly lost 2 in their last 4. In fact 2011 have seen Lost , draw, win , loss. This is not the Zwolle of 2010. Hopefully just a sticky patch.
Against top 6 away, it is draw, loss, win, loss for Zwolle but out of the top 6 away, they have won 6 and drawn 1. They have not played the bottom 3 away from home yet so cannot gauge whether they find these minnows a struggle.

730pm - Gent v Lierse - 1.3 home - although Genk scored first for a winning trade, it was a losing bet. This makes me retiscent about going back into Belgium. If a match such as Genk's with such strong stats can suddenly go against the stats, it might hint at an inconsistent league.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 - one huge loss for Ajax is Luis Suarez. He was consistently a 40+ goal man for Ajax and it used to be the case that I would not back Ajax without Suarez.
This is the problem we face now post transfer windows. Some teams have been strengthened with buying, others weakened by selling. El Hamdaouia is the top scorer and Suarez was 2nd for Ajax.
1.16 signals potential for goals.
WWLDDW at home for Ajax last 6 matches is not the type of form you would expect from one of the triumvirate.
Ajax did beat De Graafschap 5-0 away , perhaps this is the reason for the short price.
Suarez scored a hatrick that day!!
Against 12th to 18th placed ( De Graaf are 12th) Ajax have a solid home and away record winning all bar 1 draw.
De Graaf have only 2 wins away from home and they were against bottom and 4th from bottom ( 1-0 each) They have played 3 of the top 4 away and lost all ( Ajax makes up the missing 4th match today)Against the top 10 teams De Graaf have played away, they have conceded 2 minimum which sets it up for a possible over 2.5 goals bet, with over 1.5 goals looking safer.
745pm - Luton v Gloucester - 1.32 home - FA Trophy and Luton have been rock solid at home of late which makes them strong favourites against lower Conference league Gloucester.
815pm - Sp Lisbon v Naval - 1.3 home - 3rd plays bottom and immediately we can see a possible goal problem at home for Sporting against lower sides - albeit a sample of 2 (11th and 14th ) -2 1-0 wins - at least they won.
LDWL in last 4 home matches saw 2 2-3 losses - coincidence? 4 wins in last 5 home and away should instil some confidence. Slight lack of consistency for Sporting at home.
Sporting have won the last 2 head to heads, scoring 5. Last head to head was in 2011 and at home in the Cup - a good gauge to today's game?
Naval have only 2 wins all season, both away. Against top half of table they have conceded 3,4,1,2,3,3 so consistently concede.
Any points Naval get ( mostly draws) are at home against bottom half sides.
Can Sporting win despite relatively poor home form in last 4 matches against a side who concede regularly against top half opponents.

125 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Credit Swap, 11/8 Palace Jester, 11/1 Harry Hunt, 14/1 Kayfton Pete, 25/1 Backstreet Billy, 28/1 Timber Treasure, 40/1 Past Gambles, 40/1 Tait´s Clock, 50/1 Royal Patriot, 50/1 Stays All Night.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This has the makings of a match between the two previous hurdles winner CREDIT SWAP and Palace Jester. Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap's form over hurdles looks to have a touch more strength in depth and he is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]

A 2 horse race? Only 3 under 25/1 -it is the jumping we have to assume will be sound and this will be a match up.

155 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Whoops A Daisy, 7/2 Credit Crunched, 12/1 Seymour Eric, 16/1 Mickytaker, 25/1 Fill The Power, 40/1 Just Benny, 40/1 Lariat Sam, 50/1 Kauto Cyreo, 66/1 Twice Lucky, 100/1 Luck´n´thanks.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHOOPS A DAISY stands out after a highly promising debut over hurdles last month, when winning nicely in a better-contested race than this. The odds will be short but she is highly likely to win again, probably at the main expense of Credit Crunched, with Seymour Eric best of the rest. [Mel Cullinan]

I could say the same about this race, with Credit crunched the obvious each way alternative. 2 horses under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 -makes Credit crunched a stronger alternative perhaps?

330 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Wymott, 7/4 Bouggler, 3/1 Rackham Lerouge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the three can be safely ruled out. Useful hurdler BOUGGLER has achieved enough in two runs over fences to suggest he can beat another good recruit in Wymott in receipt of 4lb. Punchestowns' half-brother Rackham Lerouge has achieved less than his two rivals but, although probably the most open to improvement, may be third best. [Mel Cullinan]

More fun over chase fences - 2 will place, one will not, but we saw with Ozric yesterday, they have to complete.

130 CHEPSTOW - again cut and paste problems and I can't dwell.Our Father is now 4/9 and one of only 2 under double figure odds. Soft ground at Chepstow - will that have an impact?

205 CHEPSTOW - 4 under 25/1 here - trust in the Champion trainer's Join Together?

530 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Princess Gail, 4/1 Granny Anne, 8/1 Diamond Sunrise, 8/1 Titan Diamond, 12/1 Lynchpin, 16/1 Cinq Heavens, 16/1 Lovat Lane, 16/1 William Wainwright, 66/1 Zohan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCESS GAIL (nap) bolted up here last Monday, when brushing aside Titan Diamond and William Wainwright, and is clearly the one to beat under a penalty. She could have most to fear from Granny Anne.[Graham Wheldon]

Another price gapper in a class 6 0-60 and the inconsistency of this grade is the problem. These price gappers should bolt up and place at least, but then you get Ocean Countess who runs backwards. Princess Gail is vrey strongly fancied.

SHORTLIST

A day busting with potential for both horses and football.