Celestial Halo is one of 3 under 16/1 in a race of 7 runners and 3 places. Very appealing but acknowledged competitive.
Stats standouts are benfica with a 16 match winning run and 44 without a draw. 70% of home matches are clean sheets and they have scored in all at home. Sherlock Holmes would deduce logically that a win is on the cards.
We always have the concern that the longer sequences go on for, the nearer they are to ending. Maritimo lost away 1-0 to 3rd and 4th, but lost 4-1 away to Porto.
Can benfica duplicate Porto?
Hope the sequences do not end today. Always a chance though when they are so long. Home advantage I hope will tell.
Fenerbahce won 2-0 and there were plenty of other opportunities to profit from football yesterday.
- after the Lord Mayor's show this weekend? Always entertaining for Bhoys fans humiliating Rangers. DWWWWW for Celtic in head to heads. Note, though, that the last 2 scorelines have been 1-0 wins for Celtic in head to heads with one of those a penalty, so it seems that Motherwell are tight against the Bhoys of late.
No draw in 9 for Motherwell in all competitions. WLLLWLWWL in their last 9 matches. included a 6-0 away loss to Rangers in the league.
10 wins and 2 draws for Celtic in last 12 in all competitions.
Motherwell at home emphatically cannot beat the top 4, although 2 matches were 1-0 losses ( Celtic and Kilmarnock) - they seem on the cusp of a beating today with celtic beating rangers 3-0 last week.
WLLDWLW at home for Motherwell recently. Motherwell's last 3 home matches have been 0-1, 1-0, 0-1 which conveys a tightness in defence, but it must be said, these are not against Old Firm.
No defeat in 14 in total and 6 away for Celtic sees them in good shape. Slight concern that this year, they have beaten Motherwell only 1-0 home and away, and as already said, one goal was a penalty. Expect a tight match ( hence the 1.41 quote) with a probable eventual Bhoys win.
Celtic have only failed to score away in 1 match ( 2-0 loss to hearts) and have scored 2 or more in 6 away matches.
WWLWWDWWW - quite ominous is the last 3 scorelines away 0-3, 0-3, 1-3 wins for Celtic. Indeed in recent matches home and away, the scorelines are impressive at 4-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0 (home, away, away, home) . Can Celtic carry on this encouraging goalscoring record away to Motherwell who they have struggled against this year?
130pm - PSV v Ajax - 2.02 home - 5 head to heads with goals, goals goals and then a 0-0 in last head to heads This 0-0 is always a worry when 2 of the top 3 in Holland meet. Ajax are still in with a shout in 3rd but PSV can pull away with a win in top position currently. Against top 5 at home it's 0-1 , 1-1, 0-1 -2 losses and a draw for PSV which makes today's game a bit cagey.
Ajax away on the other hand have drawn 2-2 against 2nd and 4th.
Talk about a contrast . Better left alone I feel as this is a tough game to read.
130pm - West Ham v Liverpool - 2.24 away - Liverpool have scored 3 in each of the last 3 head to heads against West Ham - and are 2.24 away from home. Yes they are without Torres, and a change in managerial style may make these head to heads redundant but it could just be that West ham's bogey side are Liverpool. 3 points is like golddust for West Ham, at the bottom of the league and with Wolves winning yesterday and Wigan losing.
Only wins at home for West Ham v Spurs ( local derby?) , Wigan and Wolves ( promoted sides)
west Ham have conceded 3 in 4 of the 5 matches at home to top 7 sides.
So, conceding 3 to top 7 sides at home, and conceded 3 against Liverpool in last 3 head to heads.
Again, Liverpool at 2.24 away look huge as a speculative punt and a possible back to lay trade.
LDDWLDWLL at home for the Hammers sees only 2 wins. They have not had 3 losses on the trot at home which could be an arguement for laying Liverpool?
5 of West Ham's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
West Ham have conceded a massive 25 goals in the first half.
DWWWWD in Liverpool's last 6 matches is encouraging for King Kenny and the Krew.
LLLLLWW away for Liverpool - the poor losing streak ending with 2 wins which is encouraging for this trip to West Ham
Liverpool have not conceded a goal in last 4 matches and their last 4 matches have been under 2.5 goals. This hints at a better defence for Liverpool under the new regime.
DDW against bottom 4 in the league away for Liverpool signals , perhaps, a lay of West Ham?
Top scorer Torres is gone of course so who will take over the mantle of goalscoring? Meireles? Kuyt the headless chicken?
No draw away in 7 for Liverpool . West Ham have new players since the transfer window and they may impact positively.
2pm - Roma v Parma - 1.56 home - 3-0, 4-0, 2-0 at home for Roma in head to heads is quite compelling. Overall , in H2H, WWWWWD with the most recent match a 0-0 shut out by Parma at Parma. 6th v 15th and already head to heads point at a Roma home win without conceding. But will the recent form back this up?
Only 1 loss at home for Roma was against a resurgent Napoli so no harm in that.
Against 5th -17th in the league at home, Roma have scored a minimum of 2 goals, and with Parma at 15th, we see a Roma potentially capable of a 2 goal haul this afternoon.
8 wins and 3 draws at home for Roma so the likelihood is that they will not lose.
WWWWWWWDL -great form but a sticky patch in the last few games overall for Roma WDLLLW in last 5 home and away - a sign of trouble?
Roma have conceded a massive 22 goals in the last half hour of matches, so traders watch out for that.
Parma have lost 8, drawn 2 and won 2 away from home.
No draw in 8 away from home, hints perhaps at a Roma win?
LWLLWLLL 5 away losses in last 6 matches for Parma, conceding 5,3,1,2,3,4 goals .
6 of the last 7 Parma matches have been over 2.5 goals away from home, with the remainder a 2-0 loss.
Obviously in poor form away from home, but are meeting a Roma side with 2 wins, a draw and 3 losses in last 6 matches.
Against top 12 they have played away, they, losses have been 4-0, 2-0, 5-2 , 3-1, 3-1 with an anomolous 4-1 win away to Juventus!!
Clearly Parma are vulnerable at home, but can a spluttering Roma take advantage.
3pm - Man City v Fulham - 1.59 home - 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0 are the leads that Man City have had over Fulham in their last 3 matches ( ending with 2-2, 1-2 away win, 1-4 away win) All head to head characterised by Man City taking the lead and by over 2.5 goals Also, Fulham scored in all of the most recent 3 head to heads.
City are clinging on by the coat tales to Man utd and Arsenal and are unlikely to challenge for the title.
2 losses only at home have come against Arsenal and Everton.
DDWLWWWW - nice 4 match winning streak at home for City scoring 4,1,4,3. Healthy goalscoring too.
4 of the last 5 City matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Beat Fulham 4-1 this season at Fulham and 1.59 looks a little generous ( as did United's yesterday)
LWWWDWLDWL - City in a DWL sequence at the momentDWL DWL will this continue or is it just coincidence? Rather unhealthy recent run for the sheikh's men. Only 2 wins in last 4, but remember it is a different story at home.
Fulham away have won only 1, drawn 7 and lost 5.
Against top 10 away, it's 3 1-0 losses and 2 0-0's with an anomolous 2-1 loss at Arsenal. Have yet to play the Manchesters away.
Only 31% of away matches, as a consequence, are over 2.5 goals. Look to have a very defensive away plan.
LLDLWLDLD away for Fulham recently sees them largely layable with only that one win.
Only 5 of Fulham's last 18 matches have been over 2.5 goals. This looks typically attack v defense today.
We must acknowledge the solidity away to top 10 which makes for a difficult game for me to assess. Ideally we want matches where the trends all pull in one direction, but here City are over 2.5 goals largely in last 5, and Fulham away, meanwhile, have had 5 matches against top 10 under 1.5 goals.
The head to heads point to an eventual City win.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.25 home - if Rangers win their 2 games in hand, they will only be 2 points behind Celtic, so when at home,and 1.25 , you would expect a home victory. WWWLW in recent head to heads saw a 4-1 St Johnstone win in March 2010.
Rangers have won all at home bar losses to Celtic and Hibs. No draws.
In fact they have had only 1 draw all season.
WWDLWLWWWW at home recently - 4 match winning streak is welcome but 2 1-0 scorelines indicate struggle.
Rangers have beaten St Johnstone in the league at home 2-1 this season and are playing them at home again as the away fixture was postponed. This must surely be taken advantage of for rangers - 2 home matches against the same team without an away match just yet?
Rangers score on average 2.25 at home and conceded 0.75 at home.
I am not as convinced by Rangers as I am by Celtic.
6 losses and a draw away to top 7 in SPL for St Johnstone.LWDWLDLL away for St Johnstone - the wins are against lower sides in the SPL.
9 under 2.5 goals matches on the trot for St Johnstone.
Likely to be a struggle for Rangers this afternoon which might hint at a lay of 1.25 initially to trade
4pm - APOEL v APOP/Kinyras - 1.22 home - twice now APOEL have been short priced favourites and lost 1-0 and 2-1. 3rd time lucky today 2,4,3,5 scored by APOEL against APOP in last 4 head to heads at least hints that they can bring these shock defeats to an end. APOP have only won 1 in 12. 10 wins, a draw and a loss at home for APOEL.
DDLDLDL away for APOP. The 4 draws have been 2 0-0's and 2 1-1's.
4pm - Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.46 home - a one off match which is the kind of match which goes to the best team on the day, not necessarily the obvious team. I will not be researching this as it is a one off match and league form should have no bearing really . 6pm - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.25 home - 2nd, a game in hand , and 11 points behind. After a comprehensive Porto 3-0 win yesterday, Benfica must win today and wait for a slip up by Porto. WWDWWW for Benfica in head to heads is encouraging for 1.25 backers.
No draw in a whopping 44 matches for Benfica and a winning run of 16 so far , they must be brimming with confidence.
11 wins in last 12 at home in all competitions. 8 match winning run at home in all competitions.
2,5,2,5,3,4,3,2 scored in those 8. 9 of the last 12 at home in all competitions over 2.5 goals with the others 2 goal matches.
9 game winning streak at home, no draw in 10 at home in the league.
Benfica have scored 4,3,2,5,3,1,4,2,3,2 in their recent matches since their loss to Porto home and away. Very consistent.
7 of last 11 in the league have been over 2.5 goals.
benfica have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their home matches and have scored in all of their home matches.
An average of 2.7 ( nearly 3 goals) scored at home and only 0.6 conceded on average.
Only 9 goals conceded in first 75 minutes of all matches this season.
So we have a team who scores and rarely concedes.
Benfica score first in 80% of their matches and their opponents lead in only 10% of matches at half time.
1-0 away win against Maritimo early this season.
Against the top 4 away, Maritimo have lost 4-1 to Porto, and 1-0 to 3rd and 4th. Likely that benfica can replicate Porto rather than the other sides?
4 losses and 3 draws away to top 10 for Maritimo hints that Benfica will not lose this match.
Maritimo have only scored 7 in the first half all season so expectation, based on stats, is that if a goal were to be scored in the first half, it would be scored by Benfica.
Don't worry if the first half is tight, as Maritimo concede 72% of their goals in the 2nd half.
Despite only 30% of maritimo's away matches being over 2.5 goals, their recent away scorelines have been 1-5 , 4-1, 2-4, 1-0.
Goals a safer bet today?
My concern is that a whopping 44 match sequence without a draw will end at some point for Benfica. The longer the sequence, the nearer to it ending.
210 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Vico, 5/2 Bunglasha Lady, 5/1 Hong Kong Harry, 14/1 Troy Tempest, 16/1 Lost Two Stars, 20/1 Arctic Gunner, 25/1 Luck´n´thanks, 33/1 Spiritual Art, 33/1 Venetian Lad, 100/1 Kidajo, 100/1 Manics Man, 100/1 Toomyvara.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUNGLASHA LADY looks more of an out-and-out stayer every time we see her and she may have the measure of Vico, who has been off for another three months since his comeback run.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Only 5 under 25/1 and a Paul Nicholls favourite in Vico.
345 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Celestial Halo, 5/2 Karabak, 11/2 Sentry Duty, 10/1 Trenchant, 12/1 Black Jack Blues, 12/1 Tarkari, 20/1 Afsoun.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Karabak and a refreshed Sentry Duty have to be feared but this largely revolves around whetherCELESTIAL HALO can repeat last week's cracking effort at Wincanton, where he again showed the fighting qualities that were so evident when at his peak. Tarkari could be the dark one, with this trip worth a try.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
8 runners down to 7 and 3 places hopefully. Celestial Halo surely has a great chance of placing here in a race where only 3 are under 14/1
415 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ornais, 7/4 Herons Well, 6/1 Horsham Lad, 10/1 Gripit N Tipit, 20/1 Sesame Rambler, 66/1 Honour´s Dream, 66/1 Super Sensation.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One strict formline through their latest runs suggests Herons Well has the beating of ORNAIS but it's reasonable to believe the latter can improve significantly on that Wincanton form and Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race, having won it five times since 2002.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Only 3 under 20/1 makes Horsham lad the obvious each way alternative despite only 2 places.
455 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Waaheb, 6/1 Kick For Touch, 10/1 Jenari, 12/1 Dia Dhuit, 14/1 Baile Fearainn, 16/1 Streets Of Newyork, 25/1 Shahalan, 50/1 Prince Evan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If WAAHEB can build on his impressive winning debut, it will take a high-class performance from one of his rivals to lower his colours. The market will provide the best guide to the newcomers, with Kick For Touch being the obvious pick of the others that have run. [Kevin Blake]
Weld/Mcnamara and Waaheb have 2nd fav out and Jenari 2nd fav now. Trust the market. It is a bumper and the old dark horse may be hidden. 5 newcomers could be anything.
Heavy at Towcester with THAT hill! No thanks.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.41 away - yes I acknowledge the 1-0 head to heads last 2 matches signals a tough to beat Motherwell, but they were recently soundly spanked 6-0 by Rangers who were soundly spanked 3-0 by Celtic.
Perhaps back Celtic with a 0-0 insurance cover?
4-3-3-3 scored by Celtic in last 4 matches could see them overturn their recent 1-0's with Motherwell?
130pm - West Ham v Liverpool - 2.24 away - go with stats or go with heart? A must win for West Ham ( aren't they all?) but have conceded 3 against Liverpool in last 3 head to heads, and conceded 3 against 4 of the top 7 they have played at home.
A quiet match or a goalfest? Neutral bets might be the option here.
Stats wise, the 2.24 away for Liverpool is HUGE!
2pm - Roma v Parma - 1.56 home - everything points to a Roma win this afternoon until we see Roma's recent form of
WDLLLW. Parma concede bucket loads away, Roma have won scoring 2 or more and not conceding in last 3
3pm - Man City v Fulham - 1.59 home - looks a good back to lay trade opportunity with Man City winning 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0 in last 3 head to heads. Fulham's ability to keep things tight away to top 7 is a slight cause for concern, but they have not won away to top 7.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.25 home - Rangers should win and must take advantage of the fact that they are at home again instead of playing St J at St J. Could be a tight game for periods with eventual Rangers win?
4pm - APOEL v APOP/Kinyras - 1.22 home - surely they can't feck up another short odds quote for the 3rd match in succession? Totally dominant in head to head scorelines.
6pm - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.25 home - no draw in a whopping 44 matches for Benfica. Can we eek out another match without a draw today? I am always worried with these long sequences that it may be today they will end ( remember Man Utd unbeaten run ended at Wolves)
Keeping a clean sheet in 70% of matches at home and scoring in all of them means only one thing surely?
16 match winning run set to continue?
Maritimo lost 1-0 away to 3rd and 4th, so which way will it be for Benfica? 1-0 in last head to head.
You could see a Benfica win, but by a solitary goal perhaps.
345 FONTWELL -7 runners and 3 places still. Only 3 under 14/1 and Celestial halo, with a clear round, should place surely? Only 4 to beat to place.
455 LEOPARDSTOWN - Waaheb is 1.33 to win and 1.06 to place. Jenari looks the obvious place only alternative but is a debutant. 5 horses are debutants and could be anything but the Racing Post correspondent is adamant that 2 it will be very surprising if he is beaten"
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1245pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.41 away - scoring plenty and a nice price. Cover 0-0 though as it has been tight against Motherwell.
3pm - Man City v Fulham - 1.59 home - head to heads indicate Man City should take the lead here and thereby be a good trade. Not so sure about an outright bet though.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.25 home - away fixture postponed so surely must take advantage of 2nd home fixture against St Johnstone who have not beaten any of top 7 away and have lost 3 at home and 2 away v top 3 teams.
6pm - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.25 home - chance another win at home before the 16 match winning run and 44 match without a draw sequences end?
345 FONTWELL - Celestial Halo, with a clear round, has a great chance of placing as one of only 3 under 14/1
455 LEOPARDSTOWN - Waaheb would be a win only bet here but there are plenty of newcomers.
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