15/2

From a trading perspective, I will likely oppose goals in the Aris v Man City match, dependent on team news, and Spurs look opposable without Modric and Bale this evening away at AC Milan. Will they continue their 100% over 2.5 goals Champions League stat? I don't know how these teams will approach matters, especially the Champions league teams . Elsewhere, Valencia look worth supporting as they have been the form team in Spain but again this is a one off match.

At Southwell, the 220 looks the race with the most appeal, but a 9 runner maiden with 3 debutants and 3 one time outers open to improvement on the fibresand is not a safe race at all. Hermes should place if the 143 day absence and Fibresand surface do not present problems, while Barnum should be noted for the Johnston yard as he has been battered into 2/1 favourite

As things stand, there are too many ifs and buts today

*****ONE A DAY NO BET TODAY*****

I will update later on if I can get a clearer picture of the Champions League matches this evening. Dare we trust the Greeks to do what the Greeks do best? Play suffocating defensive football againstCity?

I was right to ignore Apoel , but Chamirey was a faller when all out the winner. 1.17 at the start , he touched 1.03 in runner and good news for traders, but bad news for traditional backers. A real pity. As always I keep saying that a clear round is required.

5pm - Aris Thes. v Man City - interesting stat from the Racing Post that Aris are unbeaten at home in 24 European encounters. Interesting also to note a change in manager for Aris. All the kinds of stats we can use to build up a case to oppose Aris? These matches are usually difficult to get an angle into as they are 2 legged, and one off affairs ( if that makes sense - i.e. the teams have no history in head to heads) - only 1 win in the last 6 matches and Aris failed to score in 4 of those matches. I would suspect tonight might see a typically Greek display ( see the Apoel game yesterday, goalless dross)

At home, Aris have lost 3 and drawn 1 against the top 4, and I would bracket Man City as being an equivalent of these top 4 teams.

17% of home matches under 2.5 goals - yes typical Greeks!!

DLDL away for Man City in the Premiership - they are not in the best of form.

It is difficult to weigh up collateral form so this match is a matter of taking an opinion not based on form or stats and hoping for the best.

2 legged affair so take that into account as well i.e. there is not need to bust a gut if only 1 goal down in the first leg .

730pm - Forfar v Alloa - 1.81 home - might be worth investigating in a tough day. Plenty of postponements for Forfar makes their recent form a little patchy, but of the recent games they have played, this year, it's 3 away wins and a 0-0 draw at home.

Alloa have played a lot more recently, and probably wish they hadn't. with 6 defeats on the trot, conceding 2,1,4,4,3,3 - look at those last 4 games and it makes Forfar's price huge. Not in running and I would have liked to have backed Forfar in the hope they score first , as Alloa have conceded 12 in 4 matches.

745pm - AC Milan v Tottenham - another match where the Racing Post is a great help. Spurs have Modric and Bale out and these 2 are a huge miss for the Spuds. Again I am not sure what looking at recent form will do as this is the Champions League, and the mentality over a 2 legged affair is a lot different to conventional domestic league competitions. All of Spurs Champions League matches so far have been comfortably over 2.5 goals. Will this continue as the prize gets nearer? And with such influential midfielders out?

1030pm - Velez v Caracas FC - 1.23 home - another match which is difficult to weigh up as it is the Copa Libertadores between an argentinian league side and a Venezuelian league side.

Soft at Folkstone, heavy at Newcastle, and fibresand at Southwell. Just what we need! Not!

300 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Asturienne, 4/1 Canni Thinkaar, 6/1 Mrs Fawlty, 8/1 Upham Atom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASTURIENNE has cost favourite backers a bit but surely has a great opportunity this time. Mrs Fawltymakes her chase debut and may be open to some improvement this term.[Richard Austen]

Beginners chase in soft ground and as you can see, the horse can be the best in the race, like Chamirey, but still falter early in a chase career. Yet again it's 4 runners and 2 places and a strong market leader.

Battered into 1/5 now for King/Thornton but 2 mile 5 furlongs in soft for a horse having only his 2nd chase run - well.......

500 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Song Of Songs, 5/4 Dante´s Storm, 10/1 Jack´s Present, 12/1 Mount Sandel, 25/1 In The System, 33/1 Snakebite, 50/1 Flowersoftherarest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two very interesting types in opposition here and hard to choose between them. Song Of Songs has a good deal going for him but it would be no great surprise if DANTE'S STORM proved hard to peg back.[Emily Weber]

2 under 14/1 should dominate this hunters chase, all being well. Only 2 places so we'll get decent enough odds in the place market .

140 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Lucky Sunny, 9/4 Bunclody, 3/1 Maddoxtown, 6/1 Diamond D´amour, 14/1 Udaya Klum, 33/1Lofthouse, 33/1 North Brook, 33/1 Princess Aliuska, 50/1 Power Flow, 100/1 Chichina, 100/1 Matilda´s Folly, 100/1 Mister Daniel Dee, 100/1 Politelysed, 100/1 Stanley Bridge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUNCLODY split two decent horses here last time and a repeat performance could easily see him go one better, especially with market rivals Lucky Sunny and Maddoxtown having a bit to prove on one count or another.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 6 under 66/1 but ,maiden hurdlers in heavy ground are not appealing despite the probability that these 6 should fight out the 3 places..

220 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hermes, 5/1 Barnum, 5/1 Unex Goya, 11/2 One Pursuit, 10/1 J R Hartley, 14/1 Jo Boy, 33/1 Ay Tay Tate, 100/1 Carrside Lady, 100/1 Jack´s Rocket.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting maiden that should produce winners. One Pursuit shaped well on debut, while it's too soon to be writing off Unex Goya, but HERMES is the one to beat on his debut turf effort.[Graham Wheldon]

An extremely interesting betting heat this one with Barnum battered into 15/8 2nd favourite for guess who? Yes Mark Johnston whose last 7 runners have all been in the first 2 at Southwell.

Only 3 under 14/1, dare we trust a newcomer on fibresand? Let's face it, Mark Johnston's horses do not seem to mind this course and when the money is down, they place and place with regularity.

450 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Home, 4/1 Sea Cliff, 13/2 Kingaroo, 13/2 My Mate Mal, 10/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 40/1 Okalydokely.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HOME (nap) looks well up to defying a penalty for his 7l success here last week and can enhance his impressive record on the surface.[Steven Boow]

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but only 2 places and a Southwell winner last time out.

SHORTLIST

A very tough day today. 2 legged Champions League matches where tactics are unknown.

5pm - Aris Thes. v Man City - laying Aris might be a plan to cover the draw but they could do what APOEL's opponents did yesterday - sneak a 1-0 then sit on it. Under 3.5 goals at 1.31 is very tempting but this match is so full of what ifs that we are entering the realms of guessing here.

A new manager for Aris might see them vulnerable.

A Man City display to their potential will see them hard to beat. They could really let loose.

Or typically Greek performance from Aris sees few goals.

This is a 2 legged affair too so difficult to read into it.

The under 3.5 goals would revolve around City contributing most of the goals as Aris managed to score no goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.

745pm - AC Milan v Tottenham - big midfield absences may see Tottenham vulnerable. Laying them in the match odds is around 1.20 equivalent back bet.

All, bar none, of Spurs' Champions League matches have been over 2.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals is 1.33 which is the safer option but it quite high, as it accounts for this knock out stage.

300 FOLKSTONE - Asturienne would not get a look in on a stronger day of betting. 1.12 to place, like Chamirey, but has to complete this beginners chase ( unlike Chamirey)

220 SOUTHWELL - a maiden on the fibresand - yes it just gets better and better! 3 of the 9 are debutants. 3 of the 9 have had a single run and are open to improvement. 3 only are under 14/1 - focus on these 3 for the 3 places?

Hermes has run on soft ground , albeit 134 days ago and was impressive at 12/1. Now 11/10 and favourite here, he is expected to handle the deeper fibresand in a race where the market indicates not many can be fancied.

Barnum is the big mover and must be accounted for, as he is a Johnston/Fanning horse. A 26% strike rate at Southwell for Mark Johnston. A lot of faith as ever in the horse handling the surface and proving capable in a race where the one time outers may improve out of all recognition and the 2 other debutants might be dark horses.

Yes, it's a day of mights, and ifs.

Hermes is 1.17 to place and Barnum is 1.28 currently to place.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

It is difficult to get an angle into the Champions League matches, suffice to say that Aris are likely to put up a typically defensive display at home which might produce few goals. Under 3.5 goals is an enticing 1.31 but Man City could simply let loose. We do not know!

Horse racing wise, well the heavy and soft ground are offputting and the beginners chase is another where the prayer mat has to be employed to ensure your selection does not fall.

The 220 Southwell looks the safest race today with Hermes a very interesting favourite in a race which sees only 3 horses under 14/1. Barnum is a huge market mover into near 2nd favourite. This is important as this is Johnston/Fanning horse. But dare we trust a debutant on fibresand against 3 possible improvers ( 1st time outers might improve for their run) and 2 debutants who could be anything