Wolves conceded 2 yet again to top 4 opposition.I was disappointed I didn't put ADO De Haag as one a day as I thought I sussed that one out well, and they performed as expected. Brum v Stoke ended up a 1 goal ( 90th minute) affair.
And here's something to stick in your trading diary. Whenever a team go 2-0 or 3-0 ( preferably) up at half time, LAY THEM! Your liability will be next to nothing and your potential upside huge. Newcastle did it, and West Ham did it yesterday. This is something I will be employing in the future.
Condolences to the owners of 2 horses electrocuted at Newbury yesterday.
12pm - Dundee Utd v Celtic - 1.59 away - biggish odds hints at a tough assignment for the Bhoys this afternoon. 6th v top and Celtic must win. Rangers have a game in hand and are only 2 points behind.
7th and below, Dundee Utd are strong at home, but against the top 5, they have lost 2-1 to Celtic, Drawn 1-1 with Kilmarnock and lost 4-0 to Inverness CT.
Unbeaten in 8, 2 home wins and 6 score draws, so if Dundee Utd take the lead, expect Celtic to equalise.
Ditto, if Celtic score first, perhaps Celtic are worth laying at short odds incase Dundee produce yet another score draw.
LWLDWW recently at home for Dundee United. You just get the feeling though that the Old Firm are a slight step up.
No defeat in 12 for Celtic, and have won 7 of their last 8 matches, scoring 7 in their last 2 matches.
Only 2 slip ups away, one 1-1 draw v bottom Hamilton and a loss to Hibs. WWWDWW away for the Bhoys recently.
Dundee look layable, there must be some way to cover the possible score draw? Back Celtic and cover 1-1 and 2-2?
1pm - Ilioupolis v Anagennisi Karditsa - 1.38 home - last 3 head to heads 1-0, typical Greek tosh and last 2 1-0's were to away side! I'll get me coat!!
1pm - Ionikos v Panthrakikos - 1.21 away - only 1 win in last 12 for Ionikos LLLLWLDL recent matches. Greek 2nd division again so take with a pinch of salt. I think Panthrakikos are a relegated side so should find life easier in the lower tier? again there is nothing here to suggest Panthrakikos are a good back at an illiquid 1.21
1pm - Levadiakos v Doxa Dramas - 1.47 home - again not for me, Greek 2nd division.
130pm - Benevento v Viareggio - 1.41 home - I don't know the league or teams at all so better safe than sorry , and no thanks!
4pm - Alcoyano v Santboia - 1.25 home - Spanish lower tier and a standout stat? Away side have not won in last 12.In fact, it is only 1 win in their last 20 matches. Highly illiquid market and only match odds available so no real use for one a day purposes.
4pm - Anorthosis v Doxa - 1.18 home - LLDLLLLLW for away side in last 9 league matches. A sudden 3-0 win last time out.
DLLWDWW recently for Anorthosis. 3 wins in last 4 at home. I would opt for an over 1.5 goals bet here but we face illiquid markets at Betfair not in running.
W Bremen v Hannover - worth investigating from a goals angle.7,2,5,0,6,5 the total goals in last 6 head to heads and the last 2 matches in particular have kept up with the reputation that Werder Bremen always bring to the table - over 2.5 goals kings!
80% of their home matches have finished over 2.5 goals
6,2,5,3,5,0,3,3,3,4 are the total goals in Werder's home matches this season. A hope that Almeida plays today as he has scored 8 of his 9 goals this season at home. A bit like Berbatov for Man Utd - he loves the home matches.
Against top 10 sides at home ( Hannover 96 are 5th), total goals have been 4,2,3,5,3,5 - consistent enough.
Against 3rd and 4th at home, Werder have lost, but against 6th ,7th, 8th, they have won , so Hannover are in the middle here of 2 conflicting patterns!
3,4,3,2 scored in Hannover's last 4 away matches.
They had a run where 10 of 11 matches were over 2.5 goals but this has rather peetered out to 2 1-0's and a 2-0 in their last 3 matches. No draw in 18 for Hannover is the standout stat.
615pm - Benfica v Guimaraes - 1.32 home - Porto are 11 points infront - Benfica have a game in hand and can lessen the gap , but will need a few Porto mistakes to be in with a shout of competiting for the title.
No draw in 18 matches and an 8 match winning streak. This draw sequence will be broken some time, but today, at home, at 1.32?
Guimaraes are actually one of only 4 sides to beat Benfica this season , on 10th September, when Benfica have since won 14 and lost 1.
8 wins on the trot at home, 2,4,2,5,4 scored in last 5 home matches. Full of goals.
Benfica have conceded only 8 goals in the first 75 minutes of all of their 18 matches this season. If they score, they usually win, and with the draw absent from all Benfica matches this season, lay the draw?
Benfica have conceded 7 in the last 15 minutes in matches so bear that in mind you traders.
Opponent leads at half time in only 11% of Benfica's matches - another trading angle perhaps?
Guimaraes have only played one of the top 5 away this season so difficult to gauge how they play against top sides.
They beat Sporting 3-2 and have drawn at home with Porto and beaten Benfica. No mugs this Guim side.
LLWLLW away , both wins 3-2 and 3,2,2,3 conceded in the losses - a recent vulnerability at the back and you don't want a team as full of goals now as Benfica taking advantage.
Guimaraes have only scored 3 goals in the first halfhour in their matches and only 6 in the first half of all their matches. A particular vulnerability therefore in the first half.
They have scored 15 in the last half hour of their matches so again traders get out at the hour mark!
8pm - Espanyol v Real Madrid - 1.49 away - Real look immediately layable at odds on away from home.
They really must take advantage of the dropped 2 points from Barca yesterday - that was a slip up Mourinho had hoped for. 3-0, 3-0, 3-0 last 3 head to heads can surely not be put down to coincidence. The 22nd Feb sees the Champions league and surely it is too early to start resting the stars? Barca are 8 points clear, it could only be 5 with an away win this evening.
LWWDL away for Real and that inconsistency I thought had left Real is returning.The 1-1 draw with Almeria was a particular kick in the objectionables for me.
A team that is not really a team at present.
Away is where real have really thrown away the title.
No draw in 11 for Espanyol - WWLWL at home recently and the losses were against Barca and Villareal, 1st and 4th. Away from home, they have lost to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th, so it seems the top 5 is a bridge too far ( and remember Espanyol are 6th!!)
Against the top 6, it's wins all the way for Espanyol at home.
Beware late on, they have conceded 12 goals in the last 15 minutes so if 0-0 or a draw coming up to last 15 minutes , perhaps speculate on laying the draw or backing Real?
LLLWWWLL recently - are Espanyol entering another period of losses?
Real alas seem just too untrustworthy, despite Espanyol being clearly 2nd bet to the top 5, and losing 3-0 in last 3 meetings.
210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Highland Valley, 2/1 Araldur, 12/1 Hard Tackle, 16/1 Cap Elorn, 16/1 Just Cloudy, 16/1 Lundy Sky, 16/1 Ruby Bay, 25/1 Spirit Of Barbados, 33/1 Well Refreshed, 50/1 Cruise In Luxury, 100/1 Inca Cave, 100/1 Numbercruncher, 100/1 Racey Lacey, 200/1 Alfie Brown, 200/1 Midnight Charmer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHLAND VALLEY didn't hurdle fluently upped in class at Cheltenham last time and did well to finish as close as he did. He remains a useful prospect and is fancied to concede the penalty to Araldur.[Graham Wheldon]
Soft ground here and Cap Elorn the mover here for each way players. Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 .
440 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mamlook, 5/1 Cool Friend, 6/1 Jokers Legacy, 10/1 Dinarius, 14/1 Ace High, 25/1 Iheardu, 33/1 Ballydonagh, 33/1 John´s Gift, 100/1 Secret Shared.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not sure the ground or track is absolutely ideal for MAMLOOK but it will still be disappointing should he not make it 2-2 over fences en route to the festival. Cool Friend is the one most likely to cause an upset.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Another local track for Mr Pipe and he has Mamlook here. His price gap, though, is not as apparent in the live betting, where Cool Friend is closer now into 5/2 in a race where only 5 are under 25/1 and should be the ones for the places. Ground concerns. Certainly no huge vibes as there was with trop Fort, gambled on for the Pipes and all out a winner at Taunton until a fall at the last.
Mamlook is still a chasing novice, so a little caution advised but is a top quality horse heading for the Cheltenham Festival.
300 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Our Mick, 11/4 Don´t Turn Bach, 5/1 Morgan´s Bay, 12/1 Bennys Mist, 12/1 Storm Survivor, 14/1Milo Milan, 66/1 Bahr Nothing, 66/1 Thomas Bell, 100/1 Boo Boo Booyakasha, 100/1 Dani, 100/1 Fifth Sea Lord, 100/1 Jam Tomorrow, 100/1 Roses Legend, 100/1 Termon Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Don't Turn Bach can do much better if able to get his act together and Morgans Bay remains an interesting prospect but OUR MICK could be the one to beat. He fluffed his lines last time but can make amends.[Chris Wilson]
Only 6 under 66/1 here should be the ones for the 3 places. This maiden hurdle sees only 3 under 14/1 and Morgans Bay the obvious each way value alternative.
330 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mizzurka, 13/8 Violin Davis, 7/1 Kings Queen, 12/1 Osmosia, 20/1 Basford Lady, 20/1 My Viking Bay, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn, 100/1 Perjury.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There shouldn't be much between MIZZURKA and Violin Davis. The latter arguably has more scope to improve but Bob Buckler's mare is given narrow preference after holding her own for a long way in a better contest last time. [Chris Wilson]
8 runners, 3 places and McCoy v Nicholls at the head of the market.
HEAVY GROUND AT NAVAN
Some good contenders at Navan but the heavy ground is not for me today.
SHORTLIST
A difficult day today. The Bolton/Everton match does not stir the senses.
W Bremen v Hannover - if Hannover play their part, this could be another goalfest. Over 1.5 goals looks like it could come in, if we look at Werder's home goal totals per match and their performances against top 6 at home.
1.25 over 1.5 goals is reasonable.
615pm - Benfica v Guimaraes - 1.32 home - another over 1.5 goals match at 1.26? Or do we lay the draw as benfica have not drawn all season?
440 EXETER - Mamlook could be the call here, although the cash is for Cool friend it would seem. Ground has just changed to heavy at Exeter -Mamlook did win his chase in heavy last time. Solid jumping and only 2 opponents.
330 HEREFORD of interest today as it is only 8 runner and 3 places and 2 dominating in Mizzurka and Violin Davis.
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