*****730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark U21 - back Spain at 1.33 currently.*****
A friendly so team news ideal and I may update if I can get further information. At the price though, this is worth backing. It is this or Quantitative easing at 1.2 in the win only market.
Let's hope Denmark continue to concede 2 or more as readily as they have in their last 6 matches.
I am glad I left Vino Griego alone as the "heavy" element played its part yesterday for the beginner chasers. The seller saw the value placer Unlimited win I think, but yesterday was poor quality fare.
6pm - Luxembourg U21 v Austria U21 - 1.4 - are these minnows opposable on all levels?This is a proper int'l. Lux have kept it tight of late with 3 1-0's , 2 of them wins . Lux look to be more able to compete at this level than the first team at full international level.3 wins and 2 losses in last 5 matches would be unheard of for the first team.
No draw in 11 matches a good stat to take with us for Luxembourg - they either win or they lose?
Austria have only lost 3 in their last 12, and 2 losses in last 3 were away to UK sides Wales and Scotland.
DLWWLLWW at home entering 2010 is very encouraging for Luxembourg , relatively speaking.
There is nothing to suggest that Luxembourg will get hammered today and a lay of Austria might even be the way initially for traders, if Luxembourg can continue their tight recent matches.
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - an international friendly so caution re team news etc, but Wales with Gareth Bale as compared to Wales without Gareth Bale will be the deciding factor. Immediately again, Ireland look layable at 1.73 . The teams last met in 2007 so the head to heads pretty redundant given changes in personnel since then.
No draw in 12 for Wales and 2 draws only in 12 for Ireland immediately point to one team winning and one team losing!! Or given there have only been 2 draws in 24 matches, sequentially we should be expecting a draw.
LWWLWWLDL for Ireland since 2010 in all competitions ( friendlies and meaningful) recent losses against Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Norway. We can excuse the first 2 I would suggest.
LWWLWLL at home since 2010 for Ireland - now compare that to their away form - DDDWWWD - so Ireland do draw just not when they are at home.
5 of Ireland's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals - a sign we can trust goals?
5 losses in last 6 for Wales - LLWLLL away as well -no draws in last 12 away matches for Wales.
It is tough to gauge collateral form and attitude going into friendlies, but the stats indicate both sides are draw shy.
135 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Higgy´s Ragazzo, 3/1 Lamps, 7/1 Sir Pitt, 20/1 Kayaan, 33/1 Verluga, 50/1 Always De One, 50/1 Brink.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lamps stayed on very well for second on heavy going at Sandown and that looks decent form, but he got a long way behind and will surely be highly vulnerable on good ground here if the Nicky Henderson-trained HIGGY'S RAGAZZO, who was fairly useful on the Flat, makes an adequate hurdling debut.[Richard Austen]
Only 3 under 20/1 and slight shortening for Lamps. Higgy's is a newcomer to hurdles.
235 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Quantitativeeasing, 5/1 Fin Vin De Leu, 8/1 Springfield Raki.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING is potentially smart and looks a cut above his two rivals. Barring accidents, he should take this weak contest with ease before making his mark back in stronger company.[Steven Boow]
No ground concerns today and an exciting prospect for Nicky Henderson. Only 3 horses so , again, you get a far better payout on sussing out who will place 2nd. " barring accidents" reminds us that the horse has to complete of course. " he looks to have a promising chase career ahead of him" so said the race analyst last chase win. Won on heavy on that occasion and a liking for heavy. Today's ground is good. The hope is that the horse finds this good ground agreeble.
225 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Warrior One, 5/2 Vivaldi, 11/4 Any Given Moment, 8/1 Turf Trivia, 12/1 Cloudy Too, 25/1 Borderhopper, 25/1 Sir Tamburlane, 33/1 Chichina, 40/1 Napoletano, 50/1 Westwire Toby, 66/1 Farmer Henry, 66/1 Young Firth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three stand out in a race which many are impossible to fancy. There are ifs and buts about all three on one count or another but if WARRIOR ONE lasts out the 2m4f he has the form to take this, possibly at the main expense of Vivaldi. Any Given Moment is the other major protagonist.[Mel Cullinan]
4 under 16/1 here with Warrior One and Vivaldi dominating at time of writing.
315 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Striking The Wind, 7/2 Ezra Church, 5/1 Eilean Mor, 6/1 Vantaa, 8/1 Embassy Pearl, 12/1 Mecca´s Team, 20/1 Osgoodisgood, 25/1 Mcbirney, 66/1 Ever Roses, 100/1 Speed Awareness.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston has been mopping up on the AW this year (18-39), including with horses having their first run on Fibresand, and his STRIKING THE WIND is of obvious interest in a modest maiden on his debut. Ezra Church has the best form of his rivals but needs to bounce back now switched in surface.[Adrian Cook]
Only 6 under 20/1 here and Striking Wind of obvious interest for Johnston/Fanning. As Spotlight tells you, he has been imperious on the all weather. A debutant and a surface debutant so a degree of faith. I seem to recall Eilean Mor from a previous race where he got a mention in the message. 2 2nds already and he seems to me the ready alternative if you don't trust debutants on Southwell's fibresand.
Pretty damning analysis of 2 runs ago for Eilean "
Eilean Mor, making his debut for Bryan Smart, had his limitations exposed. He is not up to winning a maiden and is probably flattered by his official rating."2nd in the betting currently and has had 2 Southwell runs. This is effectively a 50/50 race with 6 under 20/1 - 3 will place and 3 will not place.
415 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ace Master, 9/2 Katherine Parr, 9/2 Three Opera Divas, 8/1 Jack´s Revenge, 10/1 Dance For Livvy, 10/1 Mini´s Destination, 16/1 Amore Et Labore, 20/1 Kwik Lightening, 20/1 Littlepromisedland, 20/1 Willow´s Wish, 25/1 Evelyns Diamond, 33/1 Come On Eileen, 33/1 Jam Maker.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty going handicapping for the first time but few of them have shown much and Katherine Parr looks most interesting of them. Mark Johnston's Three Opera Divas has to be of interest up in trip given the yard's fine form but ACE MASTER has solid handicap form over shorter here this winter and looks well worth a try at this trip.[Adrian Cook]
Massive gamble on Jack's Revenge here , into 11/10 and strong market leader. Has George Baker, all weather specialist booked
SHORTLIST
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - the draw is currently 3.65 or thereabouts. Laying the draw for stake as fixed liability ( using £100 as an example) will win me around £30, so this is a 1.3 equivalent back bet.
This is based on the fact there have only been 2 draws in both teams last 12 matches ( 2 draws in total in 24 matches)
Ireland do their drawing away, and Wales have not drawn a match away in their last 12 - in fact the last draw Wales had was in November 2007 , some 26 matches ago. Ireland's last draw should have been a win with a missed Keane 2nd half penalty leaving a 1-1 scoreline.
It is tempting but then can we not throw all this out of the window because friendlies are unpredictable! Team news will be important this evening.No Bellamy for Wales surely should put things in ireland's favour?
730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark u21 - 1.33 - not on the Betfair coupon that I was reading , I only spotted this going through the matches on Fairbot. Should be a comfortable Spanish win. Look at the youngsters at Barca for an indication of the quality Spain have through all levels.
9 wins, 2 losses and a draw in last 12 for Spain.4 match winning streak, 6 match unbeaten run. Denmark have not won in 7 matches, LLLDDLL 3,3,2,1,3,3 conceded in last 6 matches for Denmark and anything approaching a full strength Under 21 Spain outfit will have them for breakfast.
Why was this match not on the Betfair Tuesday Coupon but on the Tuesday In play coupon only?
135 MARKET RASEN - like Vino Griego's race yesterday - 3 under 20/1 and 2 obvious each way alternatives ( would have paid off yesterday as both finished 1st and 2nd - this is what we wait for with value each way betting, for a favourite to underperform) Around 1.15 to place for Higgy's Regazzo - a horse not yet met a hurdleunder race conditions.
235 MARKET RASEN - you are wither with Quantitative Easing or you are not! Take the short place, hope there are no accidents and collect. 1.2 to win and 1.08 to place - 1.08 covers 2/3rd of the outcomes and a clear round should bring it home.
Is it worth chancing 1.2 for the win given it is only 3 competing and McCoy onboard for a horse with a few chase runs under his belt and spoken of very highly. The better returns are in sussing out who finishes 2nd. If going with the market, then Fin Vin de Leu is 2nd favourite and 1.51 to place.
315 SOUTHWELL
21211 last 5 horses out for Mark Johnston at Southwell , which is why Striking Wind is the default favourite here despite being a race debutant and a course debutant. 1.22 to place with Eilean Mor, my fancy alternative, 1.44 to place. This maiden should revolve around the 6 horses under 20/1 in the betting forecast , making it a 50/50 race - 6 horses for 3 places.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - there are a number of angles with which I would approach this match.
1) Back Ireland at 1.73 and hope they score first , to trade out.
2) Lay the Draw. Draws do not seem to register for Wales ( last draw Nov 2007) Possibility to trade here too if 1-0 going into the last quarter of an hour.
730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark u21 - 1.33 - if this is not a Spain win, I can say " why the feck were you not disciplined enough to leave friendlies alone?" but look at Denmark's concession rate recently - 3,3,2,1,3,3 in their last 6 matches and the likes of Pedro , if playing, should have a field day.I would recommend trading if Spain lead late on or it is 2-0 to Spain at any stage.
235 MARKET RASEN - you are either with these types of bet or you are not. And I am inclined to be for Quantitativeeasing today, he did me ok last time out and I would hope ( that is all I can do) that there are no accidents , and point to the good chase jumping in his last race to hope a clear round will produce a win. 1.2 to win and 1.08 to place
315 SOUTHWELL - Striking the wind could be the 6th Johnston horse recently to finish 1st or 2nd. Or he could fluff his lines, being a debutant both to racing and to Southwell's unique all weather surface. Not for me today but could be worth taking on with Eilean Mor to place?
415 SOUTHWELL - Massive gamble on Jack's Revenge - tongue tie on and George Baker booked. Looks like the stable have a couple of shillings on. Make of this what you will ( 8/1 in the betting forecast and 11/10 strong favourite)
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