6/2

*****ONE A DAY - 130pm - Groningen v Willem II -back Groningen in the match odds at 1.24*****




Disappointing yesterday as France and Ireland double was favoured but Betfair was down. At any rate, a team on a strong winning run losing to bottom basement was a shock.

Frustrating day as the analysis was good in places. The 1-1 Sint Truiden scoreline ended, warning re Wolves form against top sides, and most frustrating was the Man City price against West Brom. I was put off by the big price, but should have kept the faith.

Is it any coincidence that the firstmatch day after transfer month produces so many goals? The word hedge was used for some matches and would have served well yesterday , e.g. Bayern were 2-0 up at Koln before losing 3-2. It was 0-0 in the 90th minute between PSV and ADO De Haag, before a last minute Den Haag winner ( the odds for Den HAag would have incresead dramatically), Man Uts scored first against Wolves and the odds for Wolves would have increased dramatically. So whenever doing multiples, try to include in play teams and try to hedge.

1pm - Olympiakos v Xanthi - 1.22 home - top v 11th 4 1-0's in last 8 wins a signal this is Greece. 8 match winning sequence. Won all at home. Lost only 3 all season and of course away from home.
Last 2 wins were 1-0 for Oly, away from home. Only just winning. 5,3,2,2,4 the goals scored by Oly at home in last 5 matches.
Easy wins against teams in Xanthi's section of the league.
Xanthi have lost 2 and drawn 1 against the 3 top 3 sides they have played away from home.
4 losses in last 5 for Xanthi.
It looks like an easy home win here, but this weekend has seen some amazing results.
1-0, 0-0, 3-0 last 3 head to heads. 2 of them have been tight and that is a slight concern.

130pm - Groningen v Willem II - 1.24 home - overs in last 3 head to head with Groningen winning 3-0 and 4-0 last 2 meetings. Comprehensive.
With PSV losing yesterday, ideal opportunity to get 3 points nearer than they expected. In with a realistic chance of the title ( based upon top 3 slipping up and Groningen taking advantage)
9 wins at home and only losses were against 2nd and 3rd so ideally placed today.
WWWWWWWWWL at home - loss was against twente so not unexpected.
Only 1 win all season for Willem II was aw home. Conceded 2 or more in all bar one away match .
5-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-1 last 4 scorelines away for Willem II


2pm - Napoli v Cesena - 1.33 home - 2nd v 18th of 20 - 4 goals scored in last 2 head to heads in Napoli's favours.WWWWWDW at home last 7. 2 draws last 2 matches. Napoli , although good at home, are unconvincing
2pm - Trabzonspor v Antalyaspor - 1.36 home - remember Bursaspor needed to win and did, well now it's Trab's turn. WWWDWWD at home for Trab and a win takes them top again.
0-0 in head to heads. Lost 4-1 and 2-1 against 3rd and 5th.
6pm - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.18 home - when Barca are priced at 1.18, you don't worry. When Real are priced at 1.18, you do worry. But they are at home, and there can be only 2 outcomes, a win or draw, as Mourinho has not lost a home league match since 1864. 100% home win record.http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=7312132027572261300&postID=8302544137789839558
No draw in 19 so perhaps lay the draw today.LWLLWL away for Sociedad
615pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.16 home - far more reliable betting propositions are Porto. Porto 1st b Rio Ave 14th. Only 2 away draws have stopped 100% wins this year. 4,3,3 scored by Porto at home last 3, and surely they are reliable enough, but we saw with United that winning sequences end sometime, it's just when do they end?
Against top 7 away, Rio Ave have lost 5-2, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 . Apart from Benfica, that's some defensive performances.

SUPERBOWL - this is likely to be a great match for traders. I would instinctively back the biggest priced team and hope they lead at some stage in order to take advantage of the change in price.


220 FONTWELL - more cut and paste issues so I cannot recount the betting forecast. This race sees 4 under 33/1 and Captain Kirkton primed to place. Another race where 2nd and 3rd can be considered each way place value alternatives.


SHORTLIST
1pm - Olympiakos v Xanthi - 1.22 home - should be a home win - slight concern with the 4 1-0's in last 8.

130pm - Groningen v Willem II - 1.24 home - PSV lost yesterday - Groningen must take advantage

6pm - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.18 home - no draw in 19 for Sociedad means default to Real, but they have been highly inconsistent.

615pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.16 home - concern with the 1-0's and 0-0 's Rio Ave have managed against top 7






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