Enhanced bets? Were England ever going to lose after going 1-0 down to Denmark? Then back them 1-0 down at better odds?
Or how about Andorra, 1 man sent off, take the lead against Moldova, and Moldova were backable at 6.2. As soon as they equalised, their price crashed to 2.9 making for an excellent trade.
There's more to the message that simply one a day as I hope you realise.
Or faith in the world Champions, Spain. Backable at odds of 6 while still 0-0 ( they were 1.2 pre match), they got the winner in the last 10 minutes!
A very poor selection of football today. Wait until tomorrow and the usual Dutch Juliper goal fest ( he said, clearing throat after top v bottom finished 0-0)
310 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 A Media Luz, 5/1 Pantxoa, 11/2 Two Kisses, 6/1 Seven Summits, 14/1 Looks Like Slim, 66/1Thundering Home.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A MEDIA LUZ has yet to fulfil expectations but her second at Newbury was more encouraging and she looked poised to go one better when falling at Kempton. She will be expected to take the measure of Two Kisses and Pantxoa if none the worse for that experience.[Frank Carter]
2/5 and 1/3 in places this A Media Luz. Fell last time out a slight concern. I prefer to see consistent finishers over the obstacles. Henderson/geraghty the main reason behind the short price? 1.44 to win and 1.12 to place in a currently illiquid place only market
Only 2 places
410 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Cork All Star, 15/2 Preacher Boy, 9/1 Aztec Warrior, 10/1 Mount Benger, 14/1 Gripit N Tipit, 14/1 Star Double, 25/1 Joyryder, 33/1 Mandingo Chief.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORK ALL STAR's career stalled over hurdles but he could hardly have got the job done better in two points recently and should continue on his winning ways if his jumping stands up to this more demanding test. Preacher Boy may be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]
Noticeable price gapper here both in the betting forecast and reflected in the live betting market too where he is 4/7 - - - 8/1 - cannot be ignored. A great race for place only betting as it is 8 runners and 3 places.
First hunter chase but point to point form points to a strong running. Jockeys relatively unknown. I have only heard of Polly Gundry amongst the 8 jocks. I am unable to access point to point form to gauge it the horse has run over 3 miles before. 1.6 to win and 1.16 to place. Very well fancied today but a pity I cannot boost my own confidence by accessing the point to point winning form
440 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Heather Royal, 3/1 Baby Shine, 8/1 Genstone Trail, 8/1 Tempest River, 12/1 Miss Milborne, 14/1Double Silver, 14/1 Zahirah Moon, 20/1 Ballyquin Queen, 20/1 Finmerello, 25/1 Dream Performance, 25/1 I´m So Special, 25/1Persian Forest, 33/1 Looby Magoodle, 33/1 Reveal The Light, 40/1 Bollin Tahini, 66/1 Irene Kennet, 66/1 Well Sprung, 100/1Bushlark.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson is rarely wide of the mark with his bumper runners and the debut winner HEATHER ROYAL could be a bit out of the ordinary judged from her Cheltenham Festival hurdle entry. Baby Shine and Tempest Riverlook the pick of her rivals.[Frank Carter]
An 18 runner bumper and likely there will be more market moves on the run up to 440pm. As things stand there are only 2 under 11/1 here. dare we go with man of the moment Henderson again and Heather Royal, currently 15/8 in places which is eyecatching in such a big field.
as ever in bumpers, all will be reveled in the market. 1.53 to place. I think this is a good trading price as a Henderson horse should shorten in the market. Again, markets are very illiquid as I write.
510 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jessica Wigmo, 5/1 Valdemar, 6/1 Francis Albert, 6/1 Royal Acclamation, 10/1 Jemimaville, 12/1Chandrayaan, 16/1 Avonvalley, 20/1 What Katie Did, 25/1 Rightcar, 33/1 Southwark Newshawk.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JESSICA WIGMO hasn't won for two years and was well beaten when favourite for this contest in 2010, but she had excuses that day and her latest effort suggests she is ready to strike. Reliable alternatives are thin on the ground butValdemar and Royal Acclamation deserve a second look.[Stuart Redding]
Price gapper in a class 7 0-50 handicap and fastinthestraight won yesterday for the system. Jessica is a little unsure in the betting market at present. The 6/4 - - - -- 5/1 betting forecast price is now 9/4 - - - -- 9/2 - the price gap has not really translated into the live betting market but there are some 6 hours to race time and this might change.
1.55 to place is a big place only price if we hope that Jessica will replicate Fastinthestraight's win yesterday.
610 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Classically, 9/4 Layla´s Dancer, 5/1 Treacle Tart, 9/1 Active Asset, 20/1 Triple Point.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLASSICALLY is untried beyond 1m2f but his stamina will probably not be tested in this small field and he should be hard to beat. Treacle Tart could be the one to chase him home.[Stuart Redding]
A significant non runner in Layla's dancer surely paves the way for Classically to take advantage in what is now a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places and one is 16/1 -highly illiquid and no point commenting on a place only market that has yet to get the market forces in gear.
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Exemplary, 9/2 Benhego, 11/2 My Valley, 6/1 Muzo, 7/1 Frameit, 10/1 Satwa Gold, 14/1 Dalhaan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Every chance this could become tactical and that would play into the hands of Exemplary. However,BENHEGO has been slowly coming to form and is taken to regain a prize he won two years ago.[Stuart Redding]
You remember Jack's revenge a couple of days ago. george Baker booked - money down - wins.
Well Benhego hints at being fancied today as he has taken the mantle of favouratism off Exemplary at time of writing ( some 8 hours before race time!!) That man George in the plate again, but only 2 places and a Johnston runner in Exemplary in opposition. Only 2 to place and if you want to follow the early suggestion of support for Benhego, then he is a generous 1.6 to place , albeit in yet another ridiculously money void place market.
450 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Stanley Rigby, 7/4 Dandarrell, 8/1 Magnitude, 10/1 Naheell, 12/1 General Tufto.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No guaranteed pace in a race that looks to lie between Stanley Rigby and DANDARRELL, who've both improved for the switch to Fibresand this winter. The latter's third to Rosewin off 2lb higher has been
boosted since and he's the call.[Graham Wheldon]
3 wins out of 3 on fibresand for Stanley Rigby who is now odds on but a multiple handicap winner whose winning run will end eventually. Does this mean we default to safer Dandarrell? Wow, they still fancy Stanley Rigby to place - 1.27 clear favourite and Dandarrel is around 1.65 but illiquid.
200 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chrysander, 9/4 Olivino, 11/2 Abstract Art, 13/2 Sweet World, 10/1 Starburst, 12/1 Yourgolftravel Com, 25/1 Abulharith, 40/1 Reymysterio, 50/1 Aldorable.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from CHRYSANDER who holds a few of these on the form of last month's C&D success. Olivino is the main danger on official figures.[Steven Boow]
Only 4 under 20/1 here and do we side with Spotlight and Chrysander to place again? 1.24 to place is generous enough for Chrysander.
230 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Brampour, 7/2 Clowance House, 7/2 First In The Queue, 5/1 Trop Fort, 12/1 Briefcase, 16/1 Qalinas, 20/1 Management, 25/1 Eurhythmic, 25/1 His Lordship, 33/1 Vitruvian Man, 40/1 Bold Identity, 40/1 Noble Ruler, 66/1 Artic Journey, 66/1 Johnny Owen.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Trop Fort, unbeaten in two French bumpers, is an intriguing contender on his British debut, while triple Flat winner First In The Queue is another hurdling debutant worthy of a mention. Of those with jumping experience,BRAMPOUR can be expected to build on his Kempton effort and he gets the verdict.[Steven Boow]
Money down for Trop Fort, backed into warm favourite here for David Pipe and at Pipe's local track ( you don't need to be Miss marple to suggest a stable gamble?) 5/1 in the betting forecast backed into 2/1 joint fav at present ( 15/8 in places) - 1.52 for Trop Fort is a great price if you feel there is something to the difference in price between the betting forecast and the live betting market. 1.48 for Brampour is also interesting.
I would also fancy the Nicholls runner Brampour who has had the run.
A maiden hurdle so may be some dark horses lurking at better odds?
145 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Killultagh Queen, 9/2 Bobs Display, 8/1 Back Me Up, 10/1 Tarrawarra, 14/1 Flying Windsor, 14/1Lady Roberta, 14/1 Prairie Call, 16/1 Coolharbour Breeze, 20/1 Ahsurelookit, 20/1 Bennys Breeze, 20/1 False Messenger, 20/1Galant Ferns, 33/1 Miss Pepperpot, 33/1 Swift Lady, 50/1 Bleudawn, 50/1 Lady Shanakill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOBS DISPLAY makes most appeal to get her head in front after chasing home the classy For Bill last time. She has most to fear from Killultagh Queen, who hails from a yard that can do little wrong these days, and Back Me Up, who looks open to improvement following her creditable chasing bow here last month. [Brian Fleming]
Mullins/Townend have been cleaning up of late in Ireland and Killutagh Queen is strong favourite in this big field heavy ground beginners chase. has chase experience and runs on heavy. Trust the stable to get it right or swerve beginners chases on heavy at an Irish provincial track?
There are plenty of other Mullins shorties at Thurles but I am put off by the heavy ground - such a bad race type yet the Mullins runner remains ultra strong 1.25 to place
340 MEYDAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Golden Sword, 6/1 Snowmaster, 8/1 Final Drive, 10/1 Kal Barg, 10/1 Wonder Lawn, 12/1 Sweet Lightning, 14/1 Persiste Et Signe, 14/1 Rochdale, 16/1 Dear Bela, 16/1 Royal Destination, 20/1 Alrasm, 20/1 Iron Age, 25/1 Glen Nevis, 33/1 Oroveso.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike De Kock's Golden Sword was a big eyecatcher returned to the UAE over an inadequate trip last time and he'll go close back up in trip if the mood takes. However he's never really been one to take skinny odds about and an each-way chance at a better price is taken with SWEET LIGHTNING, who was far from disgraced after meeting trouble over 1m on his UAE and Tapeta debut last time (form could be given boost by Atlantic Sport or Rakaan in opener) and he's taken to reverse placings with the likeable Final Drive over this much more suitable distance.[Richard Young]
Price gapper in Golden Sword here - will he improve enough to place at least? Another illiquid place only market so no point commenting on current prices as they are way off and not the subject of market forces just yet.
530 MEYDAN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Zanzamar, 9/2 Abjer, 8/1 Bridgefield, 8/1 Buffum, 8/1 Splash Point, 10/1 Krypton Factor, 10/1Paulinho, 20/1 Sonoran Sands, 33/1 Abstrato, 33/1 Air Of Grace, 66/1 Hoot, 66/1 Mayfair Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike De Kock has the best record in this race in Carnival history and bids for a fourth win in the last five years. Although ZANZAMAR seems to lacks the flair or flamboyancy of his previous winners Asiatic Boy, Honour Devil and Musir (who all won the same trial prior to Guineas success, as did 2009 and 2005 scorers Desert Party and Stagelight), there's little doubting he's a smart performer in his own right and he can take a race that lacks anything in the way of strength in depth. The return to this trip is going to suit and he's taken to confirm last month's UAE placings with Splash Point and Bridgefield, whose jockeys switch mounts this time.[Richard Young]
Another Mike De Kock price gapper here. Might be worth backing all his selections in an each way acca along with Mullins in Thurles. Doubtless one will go awry but you'll have a cracking return if they all place and a couple in. Zanzamar should be around 1.35 to place at race time.
SHORTLIST
As you probably guess I am a lot happier with football than horse racing at present, but let's see if any of the above can be shortlisted
410 HUNTINGDON - first race of interest. A Media Luz was a faller last time and although spanked in today, I cannot trust the horse if it has not jumped proficiently in the past. This leads me on the the 410 Huntingdon and a mighty price gapper in Cork All Star whose point to point wins must have been impressive to be quoted 4/7 - - - -8/1 next best. An ideal place only race as there are 8 runners and 3 places
3 miles ( I cannot verify the distance travelled in the point to points) and a cursory warning from Spotlight " should continue on his winning ways if his jumping stands up to this more demanding test"
A clear round required for 3 miles in this hunter chase but must be such an eyecatching price gapper for a reason
610 KEMPTON - Layla's dancer a non runner ( Eric Clapton could not do the weight) , should leave the path clear for Classically here. 4 horses and 2 places. One horse at 20/1 should leave 3 horses for 2 places and Classically is currently 5/6 favourite.
710 KEMPTON - Benhego has that man George Baker on again and is backed into current favouratism. Take the hint, or worry as it is only 2 places and some 7+ hours to race time?
200 TAUNTON - " it is hard to get away from Chrysander here" - 1.25 to place is generous enough Only 4 under 25/1 here
230 TAUNTON - one for speculators and Sherlock Holmes like deduction devotees. Trop Fort is 5/1 in the betting forecast. The horse currently shares favouratism at 2/1. A David Pipe horse and this is David's local track, ergo stable gamble? Again there are only 4 horses under 25/1 but this is a maiden hurdle. For all his exploits on the flat in France, if Trop Fort cannot jump, then he can't jump!!!
145 THURLES - faith in the stable rather than the conditions. A beginners chase in heavy ground in ireland should have us all hovering the mouse over the lay price for Killutagh Queen but the market really fancies this one.
530 MEYDAN - Zanzimar would probably be my fancy in Meydan and I must admit it is based largely on the info provided by Spotlight.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
410 HUNTINGDON - no escaping the price gap here and the fact it is 8 runners. Will this negate the fact I cannot do proper analysis on Cork all Star's point to point wins. I have no way of knowing whether 3 miles is a new distance for the horse, as his track form indicates he has not run that far. Still 8 runners, 3 places and a whopping price gap make this Cork all star a good place only prospect.
610 KEMPTON - this should be a 3 horse race for 2 places if we automatically ignore the 20/1 outsider. Classically to place? cannot gauge place only price as it is an evening race and the place market is illiquid at present.
200 TAUNTON - if indeed this revolves around the 4 under 25/1 and they all finish of course ( a big assumption in jumps races) then Chrysander, at the prices, looks a cracking one a day prospect.
230 TAUNTON - Trop Fort could just be worth gambling at a very healthy place only price if we have guessed right that the move into 9/4 joint favouratism is because this locally trained horse is being gambled on today
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