At the prices I think Twente looks the best bet of the day in a day where there are so many it would be bad luck to pick the one that did not oblige.
*****ONE A DAY 645pm - TWENTE V VITESSE - Back Twente in the Match Odds at 1.28*****
Alderley Rover won which was pleasing as Sitting Tennant was the threat but he fell. Always a chance of this but luckily the experience for Alderley proved the decisive factor.
1245pm -
Man Utd v Man City - 1.83 home - United have the game and the points in hand and have been more consistent than City this season. 2010 saw 1-0 and 0-0. Is this going to be another encounter where one goal will settle it? United run ended at Wolves. At home, only one draw and 12 wins so a clear advantage at home. The last time United only scored 1 goal at home it was against Arsenal. They usually score 2 or more as regular as clockwork.Opposing goals may be the play today Laying the favourite too is a good call if we expect a tight game.
DLD away for the Sheikh, rattle and rollers. 0-0 and 1-0 in 2 of those matches and a 2-2 draw v Birmingham.
A tough match to call. The only angle in would seem to be in opposing goals.
230pm - B Munich v Hoffenheim - 1.39 home - 5th v 7th so could be tighter than the odds suggest.DDHome win, Away Win in lsat 4 head to heads. 3 of the matches have been tight in 2009 and 2010 -2 draws and 1 2-1 scoreline. Further, the last match in the head to heads was a 2-1 win for Bayern, but they got the winner in the 91st minute.
So beware a tight encounter this afternoon ?
Or a goalfest as you will read?
A win can potentially take bayern 2nd ( dependent on other results). 6 wins on the trot at home for Bayern have seen them close the gap to the top teams. 3,4,3,4,3,5 goals scored at home for Bayern is superbly consistent. Only one loss all season at home has come against 3rd in the league. Bayern have conceded only 3 goals in the first half hour and 7 in the first half in their 21 matches this season. Bayern are strongest goalscorers in the last quarter hour of the first half and last quarter hour of the 2nd half
Only 2 losses in the last 13 for Bayern in all home and away matches. Those 2 losses were away from home.
80% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals for Bayern. Hoffenheim's form recently has been full of draws. LLWDDDDLDWW - only 2 losses in last 11, so they should be competitive you would think. Out of the top 6, they have only played the first and 3rd away and that was a draw and loss so inconclusive really as regards performances away to top sides in the league.
DDLDLWDDLW away recently for Hoffenheim - only 3 losses in last 10 matches.
What's it to be? Will the Bayern who have scored 3 or more with ease at home recently turn up, or will the match be as per the head to heads 2009 and 2010 - 2 draws, a 2-0 and a 2-1 win which required a 91st minute winner from Bayern?
230pm - Newtown v The New Saints - 1.16 away - illiquid market - 2,2,4,2,4 the goals scored by The New Saints in head to heads. Very illiquid market so no point wasting time on it. But www.futbol24.com will give you stats on this match. 3pm - Arsenal v Wolves - 1.27 home - 2nd v 2nd from bottom - 5th - 10th-17th are the teams who have beaten Arsenal at home - so it's not a matter of Arsenal losing against top sides -it is quite a spread throughout the league. WWLLWWDWW at home last 9 matches for Arsenal. Those 2 losses were on the trot and it seems they are well forgotten with now 4 wins out of 5 and the draw caused by the Sheikh parking his caravan of camels infront of the Man City goal.
2,2,3,0,3,2 the goals scored by Arsenal at home last 6 matches. The 0 we now know was the Man City match. So, apart from that, a greatly consistent goalscoring average.
Van Persie have scored 7 of the last 12 goals for Arsenal and he was not playing for the Dutch side mid week.
Van Persie is a concern and I will have to see if I can find any info on whether he is playing.
75% of Arsenal's home matches have been over 2.5 goals so a neutral goals bet may be effective. Arsenal have already beaten Wolves 2-0 at their place, the only one of the top 4 to do so.
Wolves as you know are in 7th heaven after ending United's unbeaten run, and it was in the stars! They had beaten Man City and Chelsea at Molineaux.
Alas, Wolves are a different animal away.
They have not drawn a match in 17 now. This sequence is likely to end soon, but away to Arsenal? Hmm!
10 defeats, one win and one draw away for Wolves and the scales tip heavily in favour of the loss.
LLWLLL away last 6 for Wolves. The win came against Liverpool.
Away to the top 5, they have lost the lot , with Arsenal making up the 5th team today.
2,4,2,3 conceded by Wolves and ties in nicely with Arsenal's recent home goalscoring exploits ( bar Man City)
3pm - Birmingham v Stoke - low goals anyone? Worth investigating? 16th v 9th and instinctively laying goals is the call? 67% of home matches have been under 2.5 goals for Brum. Everton and Arsenal the only teams to have beaten Brum at home. 7 draws at home for Brum and 50% of all of their matches have been draws this season. That's a lot of dropped points!!
Brum have only scored 8 in the first half all season - they come alive it seems ( both scoring and conceding) in the 2nd half.
They have only conceded 5 goals in the first half hour of all of their matches so far this season. That's some strong defensive record for 24 games.
WDWDDLDD at home last 8 matches.
9 matches without a draw for Stoke against a team who have drawn 4 of last 5 at home! Hmm .
And as to goals, well Stoke's last 3 away matches have seen 2 goals or more conceded by them. LWDWLLL last 7 away for Stoke. Both sides have lost their last 3 at home and away.
Stoke have lost away to all of the top 8 sides they have played. Remember Brum are 9th. Against 10th and 11th away from home, Stoke won. It would seem teams around this part of the league are within the boundaries of Stoke away.
Too many 2-0 scorelines for Stoke away to make this match an under 2.5 goals match.
3pm - Cardiff v Scunthorpe - 1.38 home - 3rd v 2nd from bottom. A win takes Cardiff 2nd dependent on 2nd place result. 4-0, 1-1, 4-2 head to heads in favour of Cardiff. If their scoring boots are on, they have the capabilities against Scunny.
Only 2 losses but 4 draws at home for Cardiff and watch out, 3 of those draws came against 21st, 22nd, 24th in the league - Scunny are 23rd! A problem dispatching lower league strugglers it would seem. 2 1-1's required Cardiff to come from behind to equalise.
LLDWWWD recently at home for Cardiff have seen them banish the losses. 2,2,4,2 scored in last 4 home matches with a certain C Bellamy appearing regularly on the scoresheet. If he plays, then this should add to the confidence.
No defeat in last 5, or last 5 at home for Cardiff so coming to the boil nicely at home.
With any semblance of their scoring boots on today, they should score 2 at least.
10 losses, a win and a draw in last 12 for Scunny tells you why they are 2nd from bottom.
They have lost convincingly to top 8 away from home, conceding at least 2 goals.
Against 9th to 12th though, it's 4 away wins for Scunny.
They concede regularly throughout the 90 minutes .WWWLLWLLL away - no draw in 14 away matches. The 3 match winning sequence away was back in October, and since then it has been 5 losses and a win. Scunny have not scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches - they scored 2 in the win against Burnley.
2,2,4,3,3 conceded by Scunny away to top 8 sides is compelling evidence to be with Cardiff who scored, if you remember, 2,2,4,2 in their last 4 home matches.
3pm - Liverpool v Wigan - 1.42 home - a real boost with a win against Chelsea last week. I don't know whether head to heads are really relevant after the wholesale changes post Transfer Month and new management at Liverpool plus the departure of Torres - nice bit of business for a player who has done sod all in recent months yet is lauded like a goal machine!
2010 matches 1-0 Wigan and 1-1 draw. But as I say new personnel and a new approach at Anfield. A win will take Wigan out of the bottom 3 but will not do much, presently, for Liverpool.
DWWWW for Liverpool is an excellent return to winning form in their last 4 matches.
Blackpool and Wolves the only teams to win at Anfield in the league.
WWWWLWDWW at home last 9 matches at home - crisis - what crisis? Meirelles has really stepped up to the plate and is a Spaniard who is actually scoring goals!
LLLLDDWDLD last 10 away for Wigan - only 1 loss in last 5 most recent aways a signal that perhaps this will not be as easy as the odds suggest this afternoon.
The performances against teams in a similar position to Liverpool in the league have been predominantly draws .
The only real standout stats here signal a revival for Liverpool at Anfield but tight head to heads and Wigan only losing one of their last 6 away might mean this this less than clear cut.
3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.28 home 3,4,4,2 the goals scored by Rangers in head to heads DWWW - all matches in head to heads 2010 and 2011 were over 2.5 goals. If Rangers win their 2 games in hand, they go top. What more motivation do you need? Only beaten by Celtic and Hibs at home this season. Slight concern that 3 of Rangers last 4 matches have been 1-0's ( one was a loss)
Do they have some goalscoring problems at the moment? LWLWWW last 6 home matches for Rangers. Motherwell have lost home and away to Rangers already this season.Away from home, they have lost to Celtic and Rangers, but 3rd, 4th and 5th in the league., Motherwell have won these away matches. It seems the Old Firm is a step too far.
0-0, 2-0 (win), 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss for Motherwell recently. Fits in with the Rangers problems with the goals sparcity.
I am worried about the possible lack of goals in this match?
445pm - FC Basel v St Gallen - 1.24 home - basel have scored 4,4,3,3,3 last 5 head to heads against St Gallen which is why they are priced as they are. The Swiss league, like the Austrian league, is a league of few teams which is a slight niggle - over familiarity and complacency.
Top v bottom ( but only a league of 10 teams) - Basel must win as there is only a point between them and Zurich in 2nd.
Only 2nd match after the Christmas break and they resumed with a good 3-2 away win against Thun, and this after a most unexpected 3-1 loss to Thun at home in November 2010.
89% of home matches are over 2.5 goals which might be an angle in.
WDDWLW at home last 6 but we must remember there was a long break at Christmas.
No recent home form then
St Gallen lost 1-4 at home on return from break , not the best start but they left 2010 with some decent away form - WWLWD last 5 away matches. It all depends if this St Gallen turn up, or the St Gallen who conceded 4 at home, and conceded 4.4.3.3.3 against Basel in last 5 meetings turn up.
The odds suggest the latter.
5pm - AC Milan v Parma - 1.45 home - 3 head to heads have been 1-0, including last 2, and this is too recent and too Italian for me to continue with AC Milan v Parma as a match odds bet. Top of La Liga and only 3 points between them and Napoli. WLDWD at home last 5 for AC Milan . Not a match for me today and I will move on.
545pm - ADO Den Haag v VVV - 1.39 home - 5th v 2nd from bottom and VVV concede goals - minus 29 goal difference. 4 game winning streak scoring 2,3,5,1 and taking the scalp of PSV last match must fill ADO with confidence at home against a team with a leaky defence.
Strong at home against those outside the top 8, have won 2-1 against 3rd from bottom and bottom sides at home, VVV are 2nd bottom. 2-3 win in head to heads this year for ADO. Won 4, drawn 1 and lost 17 for VVV this season although last match was a sudden 3-0 win over Breda.
Only win away came against bottom side for VVV. Expectation is for a comprehensive defeat against one of the top 10 sides today.
6pm - Paris St-G v Lens - 1.45 home - 2nd v 3rd from bottom and it is ding dong at the top with any slip up severly punished in a league which is exciting at the top. Very tight ! So, this makes home matches for contenders like PSG a must win. 82% of PSG's home matches have been over 2.5 goals so over 1.5 goals should have a degree of safety about it.
WDDLWWWDW at home -no defeat in 5 at home and 4 wins out of last 5 home matches.
2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-1 home scorelines for PSG last 5 matches. Scoring 2 consistently but by the same token conceding in each of those matches. But can we trust poor Lens to get a goal?
WWDLWWL last 7 matches overall for PSG is good form - the defeats coming away from home.
PSG beat Lens 2-0 away at Lens this season and the number " 2 " returns !
Lens have won only one match away from home and that was a 1-0 against the bottom side.LDDLLDL away last 7 matches for Lens.
Be careful, they only lost 1-0 away at top team Lille and drew 1-1 away to 4th side Marseille. Will we see this Lens or the Lens tonked 3-1 away at 5th place St Etienne?
645pm - Twente v Vitesse - 1.28 home, 2 ,3,and 5 ( in the cup) scored against Vitesse in last 3 head to heads - a steady progression of goals in 2010 and 2011 - identical points with PSV at the top so there is no greater motivation that to win a home match you are expected to win and really must win to keep the pressure on your nearest rivals. WWWLWWW for Twente last 7 home matches. The loss came in a sticky patch of 3 defeats in 4 matches but they are back and winning at home. 2,5,2 scored last 3 home matches is good goalscoring return from Twente.
80% of home matches are over 2.5 goals for Twente.
WWLWWWD recent form for Twente and the dropped points were away from home.
Vitesse are in the bottom 5 and against top 5 away, have lost 4-2, 4-1, 4-1 - any coincidence with the scorelines and also their relationship to what Twente have done to Vitesse recently in head to heads?
Any points away for Vitesse have come outside the top 10 so we should expect a highly motivated Twente to secure a comfortable home win this evening. LDWDLDL for Vitesse last 7 matches away but remember the points secured away were against teams outside the top 10.
7pm - Anderlecht v Cercle Brugge - 1.26 home - top v 8th and Anderlecht must continue winning as a slip up will see Genk right on their shoulders. WWDWDWWW at home last 8 matches . 4th,5th,6th,7th at home for Anderlecht have seen DWDW -it is possible, then, that Anderlecht could draw against 8th?
Anderlecht's strength is their defence. If they score you would anticpate a win. 2,2,4,0,6,2,2 the goals scored by Anderlecht at home last 7 matches. Again the only time they got nothing, they did not score.
Cercle Brugge have beaten Anderlecht 1-0 in their last 2 meetings so could be a bogey side. Cercle have only won 2 other away matches and they were against 2nd from bottom and bottom sides. They have lost their last 3 matches, 2 away and one at home.
7pm - Gijon v Barcelona - 1.19 away - old reliable Barcelona - top v 13th - +59 goals v -8 goals. This should surely be another win for Barcelona and 1.19 is reasonable enough. Just a matter of seeing if there are better prices for the one a day bet. Gijon at home are LDLD against 2nd to 5th - 1-0 loss to Real Madrid, 1-1 Draw with Villareal, 2-0 loss to Valencia, and 2-2 draw with Athl Bilbao. And Barca only won 1-0 at the Nou camp against Gijon.
It seems these guys can be competitive against the big teams.
DLLDLWW at home for Gijon recently, the wins? Against 8th and 15th were 1-0 and 2-0.
As if to emphasise the apparent defensive capabilities of Gijon at home, 73% of all home matches have been under 2.5 goals.
DDLDWWWL recent matches for Gijon. Only 2 losses in last 9 matches is reasonable form .
No draw in 16, no defeat in 20 for Barcelona.90% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
In 12 of Barca's last 13 matches, they have scored 3 or more goals. The only match they failed to score 3, they scored 2!
Messi have scored 5 in the last 2 matches. Red Hot!! Back him for scoring anytime?
Barca have only conceded 11 goals all season so if they score they should win.
100% away record for Barca.
The only niggle I see here is Gijon's apparent defensive capabilities at home.
The 6 nations offers little value. England will beat Italy. The only value will be gleaned from the handicap markets. At any rate I do not have a sufficiently strong idea here.
Heavy ground at Ayr and Lingfield so tread warily here!
220 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sibenek, 7/4 Woody Waller, 5/2 Steady Tiger, 20/1 Alexander Oats.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nothing with compelling claims but STEADY TIGER should appreciate the recent rain and gets the nod ahead of Sibernek.[Stuart Redding]
Heavy ground and a novices chase - I'll get me coat!! But 3 horses for 2 places so a good probability chance.
245 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Zaidpour, 4/1 Hidden Universe, 7/1 Oscars Well, 8/1 Shot From The Hip, 10/1 Cottrelsbooley, 12/1The Bull Hayes, 14/1 Old Mcdonald, 25/1 Si C´etait Vrai, 33/1 Endless Intrigue, 50/1 Far Away So Close.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race alone would warrant entry today and those in the Cue Card camp will have a better idea of what the Irish opposition will amount to next month. Second favourite for the Supreme, ZAIDPOUR, can live up to the hype and is readily forgiven his costly reverse here last time. Hidden Universe is greatly feared, though the recent rain may not be ideal.Cottrelsbooley will likely make a bold front-running bid and Shot From The Hip is another who has the potential to go close. [Johnny Ward]
I have followed Zaidpour in all of his runs and expect another strong performance today . He is proven effective in heavy ground and is another Cheltenham hotpot, so Willie Mullins will be expecting a solid performance.
315 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Joncol, 7/2 Money Trix, 6/1 Kempes, 7/1 The Listener, 8/1 China Rock, 14/1 Glencove Marina, 33/1Let Yourself Go, 40/1 Trafford Lad, 50/1 Made In Taipan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This was a below-average renewal last weekend and two high-profile defections since render it all the weaker. Given the different ground conditions and prices on offer than what was the case a week ago, the nod is given toJONCOL. Winner of the race last year, a repeat of that form should suffice. Money Trix has everything going for him except his price and perhaps his age, while Kempes' chance has suffered since the start of the deluge that forced last Sunday's cancellation. [Johnny Ward]
Gold Cup -5 under 16/1 the ones to focus on for the 3 places? Heavy ground open things up in a race full of quality horses?
500 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Champagne Agent, 3/1 Caolaneoin, 7/1 Saluting, 8/1 Supreme Bob, 10/1 Kalamagdan, 10/1Really Unique, 33/1 Giant´s Quest, 50/1 Jay Cee Alexander, 66/1 Loukaja.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Champagne Agent will likely be all the rage but CAOLANEOIN can beat him if able to build on his debut effort, when he travelled notably well. [Johnny Ward]
Only 2 under 14/1 currently and CHampagne represents Mullins. Caolaneoin is the obvious value alternative but as ever with bumpers the market nearer to 5pm would be more accurate.
120 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Al Ferof, 9/4 Kid Cassidy, 6/1 Oasis Knight, 10/1 Yorgunnabelucky, 14/1 Marching Song, 20/1 Fenix Two, 33/1 The Merry Giant, 40/1 Archie Rice, 66/1 Senses, 100/1 Guarino.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hurdles newcomer Oasis Knight was useful on the Flat but this surely rests betwen his stablemate Kid Cassidy and the Nicholls-trained AL FEROF, with the last-named receiving 4lb and possessing the form to take advantage despite his drop in trip.[Richard Austen]
Only 3 under 20/1 in the live betting market and Oasis Knight is the obvious each way chout. Al Ferof represents Nicholls and Cassidy is the Handerson newcomer.
225 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Riverside Theatre, 7/4 What A Friend, 10/1 Noland, 12/1 Fair Along, 20/1 Ogee, 33/1 Mahogany Blaze, 50/1 Dance Island.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won five of the last nine runnings of this Gold Cup trial but the Ditcheat duo What A Friend and Noland have their work cut out against RIVERSIDE THEATRE whose King George second makes him the clear pick.Fair Along may give him most to do.[Frank Carter]
Targeted by Nicholls but that duo Geraghty and Henderson might spoil the party in the Aon Chase. Only 2 places and chase fences but these are class acts whose jumping should see no errors.
405 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Aiteen Thirtythree, 7/4 Tarablaze, 8/1 Jokers Legacy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There would not be much between the three of them on hurdle ratings and it is early days over fences, but it was hard not to be impressed with AITEEN THIRTYTHREE here in November and he can make it two from two over fences, probably at the main expense of Tarablaze.[Frank Carter]
Superb probability race - 3 horses for 2 places and one of the 3 is 10/1 - yes they are still novices over chase fences.
240 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Finian´s Rainbow, 13/2 Stagecoach Pearl, 8/1 Kilmurry, 9/1 Tail Of The Bank.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson, who won this last year with Long Run, will be disappointed if Arkle favourite FINIAN'S RAINBOW can't account for Kilmurry in receipt of 3lb.[Paul Johnson]
Arkle Fav? Surely must do the job here therefore to justify that lofty position.
345 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alfie Sherrin, 7/4 Silver Kate, 3/1 Cannington Brook, 16/1 My Friend Sandy, 66/1 Crack At Dawn.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CANNINGTON BROOK has had the misfortune to stumble across some smart performers this season but he's useful in his own right and is given a narrow vote over Alfie Sherrin and Silver Kate.[Paul Johnson]
3 at 2/1 cannot be split and should be the 3 who fight the 2 places given a clear round of chase fence jumping.
820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Albaraka, 5/1 Spirit Of Grace, 7/1 Beauchamp Xiara, 7/1 Covert Decree, 7/1 Thymesthree, 20/1Surprise, 33/1 Anaya.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The one that stands out in a fairly ordinary maiden is the very well-bred ALBARAKA (nap), who shaped promisingly on her debut and is expected to improve a fair bit, especially now upped to this trip. Clive Cox's newcomer Covert Decree, who is related to winners, could be the main danger. [Richard Young]
4/7 now this fav but dare we trust maiden fillies especially when it is 2 places.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Arsenal v Wolves - 1.27 home - first really solid match I think. United /City could be a goalfest or a borefest. Wolves are consistently underperforming away from home and their record against top 5 away is 4 losses with 2 goals or more conceded. Stark contrast to the home form.
No draw in 17 for Wolves - lay the draw? Ideally we need to see Van Persie as he has been on the scoresheet regularly.
Options? Arsenal match odds - over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Lay the draw at 6.6
3pm - Cardiff v Scunthorpe - 1.38 home - this caught my eye given Scunny are poor away -Scunny have conceded 2 or more to top 5 sides away and although Cardiff have drawn against 3rd from bottom and bottom, could they post a win this time? They should score and lead at some stage and I would trade.
445pm - FC Basel v St Gallen - 1.24 home - 4,4,3,3,3 conceded by St Gallen in last 5 head to heads. 4-1 loss at home last match and FC Basel must win to keep the pressure on Zurich. A league of only 10 teams can often spring a surprise though.
545pm - ADO Den Haag v VVV - 1.39 home - if the sudden 3-0 win over Breda does not bring a LAzarus like change in fortunes, this should be an easy win for an ADo side buoyed by a 1-0 win over PSV , the league leaders. Goals a safer bet?1.17
645pm - Twente v Vitesse - 1.28 home - Vitesse have conceded 4 to each of the top sides they have played away. Twente must win to keep the pressure on PSV. Good home form.
7pm - Gijon v Barcelona - 1.19 away - old faithful but beware that Gijon may keep it tight and Barca have Champions League soon.
245 LEOPARDSTOWN - Zaidpour should place with a clear round 1.27 enticing here.
120 NEWBURY - these juvenile hurdles where only 3 are under 20/1 have been good hunting grounds. Al ferof is 1.17 and should be competitive to place with a clear round.
405 NEWBURY - Aiteen thirtythree has 1 to beat to place and is about 1.16 to place which is decent enough.
240 WARWICK - Finians Rainbow at 1.19 is a welcome price for a 1.46 Arkle favourite!!!
4 horses and 2 places and a clear round needed.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
I would trust Arsenal this afternoon given Wolves' poor away record against the top 5, conceding a minimum of 2 and losing the lot.
445pm - FC Basel v St Gallen - 1.24 home - the only weakness I see here is complacency and a 10 team league. head to heads really are compelling.
645pm - Twente v Vitesse - 1.28 home - is it any coincidence that Vitesse have lost 4-1, 4-1, and 4-2 away to top 5 sides? Beware the wounded animal - beaten 5-0 in the Cup recently. Will we see a defensive reaction?
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