5pm - APOEL v Ethnikos Ach. - 1.22 home - in a day which begins with a Turkish reserves league match, APOEL was the first match where I had heard of the team. 2010 saw Ethnikos win 2-0 in the Cup, APOEL win 2-0 in the replay/2nd leg, a 0-0 and a 1-0 for APOEL in the league.
And they are 1.22 - why? Not based on heads to heads in 2010. Ethnikos have only lost 1 match in their last 11 which is not the form of rank outsiders. But they have only won 5 matches all season so are more likely to draw or lose.
DDWDWD away for Ethnikos is none too shabby.
WWDWWLWWWW for APOEL in recent league matches and the odds now become a little more justified. In 9 out of their last 10 league matches, Apoel have scored 2 or more which is mighty consistent.
Apoel have won all of their home matches this season and scored 3,4,2,5,2 in their last 5 matches at home.
It begins to look as if Apoel will justify the odds and might continue scoring 2 or more at home.
Caution though as head to heads 2010 were 0-0 and 1-0.
6pm - Fenerbahce v Kayserispor - 1.53 home - 3rd v 4th and you would expect a tight enough match here. A win takes Fenerbahce 2nd on goal difference and a win for Kays keeps them 4th ( joint 3rd but superior Fener goal difference) Draw, Fener win, Kays win in head to heads emphasises the potential tightness of this match. Fernerbahce won 2-0 at home in 2010. No draw in 10 for Fenerbahce sees 8 wins and 2 defeats and a sustained charge up the table as a result.
8 wins and 2 draws at home make Fener a force at home.They have not played 2nd, 4th and 5th yet so we do not know how strong ( at least not til after this match) Fener will be against the top 5.
Have won 7 of last 8 matches and last 5 on the trot at home.
Kayserispor have only lost 3 all season, but importantly those 3 defeats were all away from home and 2 of them were against 2nd and 5th in the league.
This is a positive sign for Fenerbahce and hints that Kayserispor find the leap to the top sides away from home a little too much.
WLLD away - 2 of the 3 defeats have come in the last 3 matches. Kays are unbeaten at home, indeed beating Fenerbahce 2-0 this season at home.
This is a tough match to call.
Home side undefeated - 5 match winning streak - won 7 of last 8 matches -no draw in 10
Away side - 4th in league - beaten Fenerbahce this season 2-0 already - but LLD last 3 away matches. Have Kayserispor gone off the boil away just as Fenerbahce are getting a head of steam up?
Instinctively I would say that the momentum is with Fenerbahce at this moment in time. Kayserispor beat Fenerbahce back in Sept 2010.
645pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Maccabi Petah Tikva - 1.39 home - DDWDDW in head to heads is none too compelling for backing Hapoel at 1.39, but what of recent form?LWWWWWWDWD recent league form for Hapoel - the 2 recent draws were away from home.WWDLWWWW at home in the league recently. A nice 4 match winning streak which saw 4,5,4,2 goals scored.
DWLLWLWL for Tikva recently is a little less consistent. LWWWWDDLWW - now that is good away form and a note for Hapoel that this might not be wholly straightforward. A goals bet could be the shout here perhaps?
7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.48 home - 4 out of 6 head to heads have been under 2.5 goals but last match was a 4-0 away win for Den Bosch. 3 losses at home have been against 3rd, 4th ,5th in the league. Elsewhere 5 draws and 3 wins.
WDWWLDDLD for Den Bosch at home , only 2 losses in last 9 matches is sign of a strongish home side.
LLDDDDLWLD in recent form. No cleansheets at home for Den Bosch but can we trust Fortuna to score a goal?
LLLLLWLD away for Fortuna - a change of Fortuna recently? WLLWLDD for Fortuna is in marked contrast to overall form. 3 of their last 4 matches have NOT been over 2.5 goals ( and prior to these matches ALL matches were overs)
3,3,3,2,3,3,4,5,2,3 1 - the goals conceded by Fortuna away from home. Ended with concession of only 1 goal in last match.
Against 9th and 11th away , Fortuna have lost 3-0 ( Den Bosch are 10th)
8pm - Fulham v Chelsea - 1.72 away - 5 wins and a draw in Chelsea's favour in head to heads, and they have won the last 4 matches.
Chelsea have a game in hand over 4th place Spurs and 2 over 3rd placed City and if they win both matches could concievably go 3rd . Plenty of motivation therefore.
LLDDLLWW away recently for Chelsea saw that very uncharacteristic run, but the last 2 away wins, against Bolton and Sunderland, saw Chelsea score 4 goals in each match, something they had not managed away in some time.
LWWWL -2 1-0 losses to Wolves and Liverpool bookend 3 good wins .
Which Chelsea turns up today?
Local derby so added fire today.
Chelsea have only managed to keep a clean sheet in 23% of their away matches.
Chelsea don't seem to lose against middle 1/3rd teams so we should expect a draw or away win.
Draw against United, 4-1 loss and City and 2-1 loss to Spuds are the results when top 5 visit John Craven's Cottage.
Again, Fulham are more likely not to win.
DLDDLWWW - 3 wins on the trot at home for Fulham 3-0 against West Brom, 2-0 against Stoke and 1-0 against Newcastle. No definable patterns there, bar the keeping of a clean sheet in each match.
Fulham have only failed to score in 2 home matches this season, so the likelihood is for a goal at least, and you would hope Chelsea have the capabilities away having scored 8 in their last 2 away matches.
LWDWLWD -recent sequence -ideally end with a W to keep the sequence going!
Fulham have 5 wins at home, and Chelsea have 5 wins away. I think a lay of Fulham would be the way to go here.
220 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mac Aeda, 7/2 Eighteen Carat, 9/2 Be My Deputy, 9/2 Streamtown, 12/1 Foxes Delight, 20/1 Dollar Mick, 20/1 Greenandredparson, 25/1 Kensix Star, 25/1 Sam D´oc, 33/1 Andy Vic, 33/1 Twigg Echoes, 33/1 Wait No More, 100/1 Are Olive, 200/1 Betty´s Run, 200/1 Lady Chorister, 200/1 Simhal.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary novice hurdle with a number of the runners expected to improve for the step up to 3m+, among them MAC AEDA who sets the standard on his fourth under top weight in quite a competitive if fairly modest handicap at Doncaster. Eighteen Carat looks his biggest threat.[Frank Carter]
Only 4 under 16/1 to dominate?
320 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Chamirey, 9/2 You Know Yourself, 11/2 Only The Best, 40/1 Almond Court.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race won last year by subsequent National Hunt Chase winner Poker De Sivola and it will be disappointing if CHAMIREY, one of two runners with entries in the Cheltenham marathon (the other being Only the Best), can't follow up his easy Towcester success.[Steven Boow]
Only 3 under 66/1 for 2 places. The best payout will come from finding the 2nd placed. Trust Chamirey in the win only market? This is a novice chase. Has 2 chase runs last 2 races and clear rounds in each. Maguire/McCain jr and another Cheltenham bound horse.
Clear round should suffice.
Heavy ground at Plumpton so caution advised.
230 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Alderluck, 5/4 Fruity O´rooney, 10/1 Ballyegan, 80/1 Ballinhassig, 100/1 Domoly.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fruity O'Rooney should make a bold bid from the front but conceding 6lb to ALDERLUCK, who is 2-2 at this venue and could well relish the longer trip, may again see him find one too good. [Dave Orton]
Lot of faith required here for this 3 mile 2 heavy ground chase. But there is no getting away from the fact this should be 3 horses and 2 places.
300 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 The Bishops Baby, 5/2 Remember Now, 5/1 Super Directa, 33/1 Beau Lake.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Bishops Baby has claims again despite a 4lb higher mark, but now looks the time to side with Binocular's half-brother REMEMBER NOW. [Dave Orton]
Beau Lake is nowhere near his betting forecast price of 33/1 ( 8/1 in the live market) - this is either a gross error from the betting forecaster or the hint of a possible gamble here. A 50/50 race so may be worth chancing.
400 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Keki Buku, 9/4 Pascha Bere, 7/2 Norman The Great, 33/1 L´homme De Nuit, 80/1 Paddy The Yank.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KEKI BUKU (nap) should relish getting back on softer ground and is a confident choice to make it third time lucky over fences. [Dave Orton]
A 3 horse race for 2 places if there are no mistakes. A beginners chase and Dickie Johnson is on Keki Buku who is making his 3rd chase run on the trot. Worth chancing?
310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Norse Dame, 7/4 Sweet Origin, 7/2 Minsky Mine, 14/1 I´lldoit, 20/1 El´wringo, 25/1 Accumulate.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak maiden and none of the runners look particularly solid. NORSE DAME should be suited by the step up in distance and may be equal to the task, possibly at the main expense of Sweet Origin.[Frank Carter]
Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places, this maiden.
SHORTLIST
5pm - APOEL v Ethnikos Ach. - 1.22 home- strongly in form home side. The only niggles here are the head to heads 0-0 and 1-0 -very tight matches.
6pm - Fenerbahce v Kayserispor - 1.53 home - 3rd v 4th so really anything could happen but Kayserispor have lost 2 of their last 3 away and Fenerbahce look like they are really in form. 1.53 could be tradeable.
7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.48 home - 91% of Fortuna's away matches are over 2.5 goals. You would expect Den Bosch to be able to score today. They have not kept a clean sheet. Fortuna not really going with the stats of late though.
8pm - Fulham v Chelsea - 1.72 away - 2 wins on the trot away and 8 goals scored - has this put an end to the ultra poor away run of Chelsea's recently?
220 CATTERICK - 4 under 20/1 - default to the market leader Mac Aeda at 1.47 to place .
320 CATTERICK - 4 horses and 2places. Chamirey is 1.3 to win and 1.12 to place which is decent enough. It is a case of a clear round I would suspect for this Cheltenham bound horse in ground which is not a concern.
230 PLUMPTON - Alderluck and Fruity O'Rooney are both 1.3 to place with Ballyegan the fly in the ointment. We will get a nice place price but novice chases over 3 mile 2 in heavy are better laying races than backing races?
400 PLUMPTON - KekiBuku might be worth chancing - 5 horses and 2 places in this beginners chase means he has really one to beat to place as we have 2 horses at 40/1 and 100/1 . Should be suited to heavy ground and Richard Johnson an able assistant. This appeals as it is only 2 miles so heavy ground will not hugely sway matters. Around 1.2 to place. Clear round required.
5pm - APOEL v Ethnikos Ach. - 1.22 home - concern with head to heads 0-0 and 1-0 but APOEL at home recently have been scoring 2+ with regularity 3,4,2,5,2 scored in last 5 home. May be worth a chance today in a day where the horse racing is tough with heavy at Plumpton the spanner in the works of the excellent probability races there.
The other matches I think I can make money out of, but by laying , and perhaps laying in the halftime/fulltime markets. Chelsea might be worth risking to back at 1.73 and trade out if they lead at any stage.
I cannot trust Fortuna Sittard at the moment after their 0-0 with Zwolle recently. They seem to not play as per the stats which makes them "unreadable"
320 CATTERICK - Chamirey is 1.12 to place which is perfectly respectible for a 1.3 win chance heading for Cheltenham in a 4 horse race for 3 places where one is a clear outsider.
A disciplined attitude would tell you to leave Plumpton's heavy ground meeting alone, but there are some tempting probability races.
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