31/1

It is difficult to weigh up the markets today as Betfair is illiquid at time of writing due to scheduled maintenance at the website over night.
The 450 Wolves looks a superb probability race with only 2 horses under 16/1 I would choose Crafty Roberto to place here as he has 2 all weather 2nd places in maidens to his name. 6 runners and 3 places means it looks like a great probability that the 2 market leaders, Crafty Roberto and Falmouth Bay for Johnston/Fanning, will both place.
7pm's Juliper league match between Den Bosch and Fortuna Sittard is in another illiquid market. Over 1.5 goals is 1.13 but only £400 available at this price. Over 2.5 goals is 1.36 with Bet365 so I would go no lower than this with Betfair. I would only use this market to trade incase it is 1-1 for a concerted period.
Faith, alternatively, in Den Bosch winning? They have beaten Fortuna 4-0 already, and 80% of Fortuna's away matches have seen them concede 3 goals minimum. They have won 2 in their last 5, but one was against bottom side,

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard -back over 1.5 goals at 1.13******
You could back Den Bosch but they have drawn so many lately this over 1.5 goals should compensate. Place bets nearer to 7pm.
I think I will place back Crafty Roberto too today in a 6 horse race for 3 places and 2 only under 16/1 which should leave a 1.20 total bet for the day ( 450 Wolves)

Arsenal won eventually. Nice enhanced trade for City as Notts county took the lead. And Real Madrid cocked up yet again, scuppering a nicely engineered multiple . Ones to avoid until Higuan returns.. They really are missing him as noone else seems to be able to score a goal.

6pm - FC Copenhagen v Aalesunds - 1.39 home in an illiquid market.Another Norwegian friendly team in opposition didn't stop Copenhagen scoring 5 for the 2nd friendly on the trot. More today? That makes the 1.39 a very tasty price.

7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.33 home - the over 2.5 boys returned to typical ways last week after an anomolous 1-0 win over Almere. Fortuna are back and are priced to get another battering.Den Bosch are 8th, Fortuna are 2nd from bottom.
Den Bosch have only won 1 of their last 8, and have drawn 4, won 3 and lost 3 at home.
60% of their matches have been overs.
LLDDDDLW - we see the problem. But all draws have been score draws. Over 1.5 goals therefore has a good chance.
LDDL at home last 4, but these matches have predominantly been against top 6. Outside the top 6, home scorelines have been 3-1 3 times, 3-3, and 1-1. This augurs well for the 1.33 coming in.

Fortuna we know all about, all bar one match has been over 2.5 goals.
The record remains 100% and look at the goals conceded away ( going from top of table matches played down) -Fortuna have conceded 4,2,3,5,3,3,3,3,3,2 - note that Den Bosch outside the top 6 tend to score........3!
1.13 over 1.5 goals is good, 1.42 over 2.5 goals is speculative but given Fortuna away and Den Bosch having already won 4-0 at Fortuna, this has a great chance of coming in.

145 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ballabriggs, 5/1 Kings Grey, 5/1 Yes Tom, 10/1 Kingsmoss, 10/1 Murrell, 10/1 Vivona Hill, 14/1 Cheatingsideoftown, 20/1 Collyns Avenue, 20/1 Comeththehour, 20/1 Howizee, 20/1 Knockando, 25/1 Golfer´s Crossing, 33/1 Lewlaur Supreme, 33/1 Moufatango, 66/1 Darkan Road, 66/1 Forcefield, 100/1 Minnigaff, 100/1 Shoal Bay Dreamer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many of these make much appeal. Yes Tom and Kings Grey are sure to win races over hurdles but this could go to recent hurdle winner and smart chaser BALLABRIGGS (nap), who travels well enough in his races to be effective over this shorter trip and who is fully effective on a sound surface. [Richard Young]

Interesting price gapper but a multiple winner and these winning sequences often end spectacularly. One of only 3 under 14/1

215 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Premier Sagas, 3/1 Benny Be Good, 3/1 Catch Bob, 14/1 Ballycolin, 14/1 Steady Tiger, 16/1 Bertie Milan, 20/1 Mister Marker, 33/1 Pericam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There shouldn't be much between Benny Be Good and Catch Bob, who finished first and second respectively at Sedgefield in November but the pair are taken on with PREMIER SAGAS, who posted his best effort over C&D in a race that is working out well and he has fine claims at these weights. [Richard Young]

Only 3 under 16/1 here in this 8 runner and 3 places race. Clear round required over bigger fences.

450 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Crafty Roberto, 9/4 Falmouth Bay, 7/2 Sofias Number One, 12/1 Miss Firefox, 14/1 Unwrapit, 20/1 Rafaaf, 100/1 Broughtons Fawn, 100/1 Ivy And Gold.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CRAFTY ROBERTO was unlucky to catch a live one when clear second at Lingfield nine days ago and may make it third time lucky, though Falmouth Bay is an obvious potential obstacle.[Paul Johnson]

With Sofias Number One a significant non runner, this should open things up for Crafty and Falmouth - 3 places and 6 runners makes this all the more appealing.

SHORTLIST

6pm - FC Copenhagen v Aalesunds - 1.39 - in running but very illiquid market - Copenhagen have scored 10 in their last 2 friendlies. Over 4.5 goals therefore is one for speculative traders. This is a friendly and we know little of the merits of Aalesunds, nor the venue and much else.IN RUNNING THOUGH

7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.33 home -only 3 wins all season but Fortuna surprised 3rd placed Waalwijk and 9th placed Caambur at home . Playing 8th placed Den Bosch.
Trust Den Bosch to replicate recent 4-0 win at Fortuna? But Den have drawn too many recently.
In 8 out of 10 away, Fortuna have conceded at least 3 so a goals bet? 1.13 over 1.5 goals is unadventurous and should be safe.
Over 3.5 goals is the call for the speculative trader.

450 WOLVES - the most interesting race of the day sees an original 8 runner race reduced to 6 runners. Original 3rd fav and one of only 3 under 10/1 is a non runner

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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30/1

Arsenal chosen as one a day earlier and lead 1-0 at time of writing.
Multiple was a success yesterday - another possible today incorporates all lays so the draws are covered in all matches. A couple of Cup matches make it a slight risk.

6 Selections Chosen 1 Twente v Feyenoord (Laying Feyenoord @ 16.45) 2 Notts Co v Man City (Laying Notts Co @ 10.73) 3 Rangers v Motherwell (Laying Motherwell @ 12.09) 4 Osasuna v Real Madrid (Laying Osasuna @ 10.73) 5 Aves v Benfica (Laying Aves @ 10.14) 6 Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ (Laying Cabofriense @ 15.57)

6-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 1.67 €100.00 €67.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: €100.00 Your total potential win: €67.00 Submit your bet(s) now?

Horse racing wise, Super Frank was original favourite in an 8 runner race, and retains favouritism in a 6 horse race for still 3 places in the 315 Kempton and may be worth the risk. He must have been original fav for a reason?

Standout stats today? Well Benfica have not had a draw in their last 37 matches in all competitions. Will this continue this evening? Rangers have beaten Motherwell 4-1 home and away in this year's league so the 1.4 is very tempting, and tradeable if Rangers score first or lead at any stage.

With the Cup matches today, look out for enhanced trading ( e.g. back Man Utd 1-0 down at Southampton yesterday) - I could see Notts county scoring and then Man City equalising for instance. Or watch Alves incase they score first against Benfica.



Barca were never going to be beaten again, and made sure of it with a late flurry from the Messi-ah.
Pana were the better priced of the football teams and I wish I had faith in the head to heads as they won again. United were another excellent enhanced bet after going 1-0 down ( much like the Blackpool match) - they became very backable and delivered almost inevitably.

155 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 1/10 Line Freedom, 8/1 Farewellatmidnight, 14/1 Colleens Pride, 33/1 Mater Mater, 66/1 Ericaceous.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be nothing more than a stroll for LINE FREEDOM, with Farewellatmidnight possibly leading the chase.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Interesting start. Looks like Farewell and Colleen are the 2 to focus on for the better paying 2nd place market.

325 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Caught By Witness, 100/30 Uncle Keef, 6/1 Alonso De Guzman, 8/1 Sunny Spells, 14/1 Get Ready To Go, 20/1 Maccool, 25/1 Salut Honore, 66/1 Humbel Times, 100/1 Patrick Dee, 200/1 Flag Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAUGHT BY WITNESS brings respectable handicap form into a weak maiden and there's no great temptation to take him on. Alonso De Guzman is a possible alternative, with his Market Rasen run no reflection of his true ability.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 5 under 25/1 should make it a little easier for Caught to be placed

135 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cucumber Run, 6/1 Easter Meteor, 7/1 Dovecote Wood, 8/1 There And Then, 10/1 Generous Bob, 10/1 Stolen Thunder, 25/1 Bennys Mist, 25/1 Ledbury Star, 25/1 Mr Windmill, 33/1 Mudita Moment, 33/1 Radmores Oscar, 40/1 Bridge Street Boy, 50/1 Solo Roma, 66/1 Just Richie, 100/1 Rich Live, 100/1 Roman Landing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak race and, despite reservations over the longer trip, CUCUMBER RUN should defy the penalty. Easter Meteor will be the danger if bouncing back from a poor last-time-out effort, while Generous Bob appeals most of the remainder. [Mark Brown]

Only 3 horses under 25/1 here should be considered for the places.

Easter and Dovecote are the 2 against the obvious favourite.

315 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Super Frank, 11/2 Vhujon, 6/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Desert Strike, 16/1 Lord Of The Reins, 25/1 Mind The Monarch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Vhujon and Super Frank are more reliable than most and should give their running but ELHAMRI comes here in good form and is the one to beat.[Graham Wheldon]

8 runners now down to 6 and still 3 places? Original fav remains in those 6 runners.

150 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Big Zeb, 3/1 Golden Silver, 7/2 Sizing Europe, 20/1 Scotsirish, 200/1 Changing Course.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BIG ZEB has done nothing wrong this season since landing the Queen Mother Champion Chase last March and Colm Murphy's runner gets the vote over Golden Silver and last season's Arkle Chase hero Sizing Europe. [Brian Fleming]

Should be 3 horses for 2 places and no immediate reason to desert Big Zeb

12pm - Arsenal v Huddersfield - 1.14 home - should be a simple job for the Arse with a good team out. 1.14 signals goals

130pm - Twente v Feyenoord - 1.28 home - a win takes them a point behind a very lucky PSV yesterday beating 9 man Willem II with nearly the last kick of the match. Feyenoord used to be one of the contenders but no so this season with a poor 15th place. Generally tight head to heads 1-0 ( Fey home win), 1-1 , 2-1 ( Fey home win Cup) , 2-0 ( Twente home win) , 0-1 ( Twente away win)

Yes, Twente have won last 2 head to heads in the league but historically feyenoord look like they can put up a fight.

LLWWLWW for Twente in their last 7 matches and those 3 losses were the only losses of this current campaign.

Twente have only lost one home match, v a resurgent AZ Alkmaar so no disgrace in that. Against teams in Feyenoord's part of the league, there have been 3 home wins.

78% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals.No draw in 13 matches for Twente is another standout stat.

Feyenoord have not won away and have lost 4 out of 5 away matches against the top 5. Indeed the only time they get any points ( draws) is against bottom 5sides.

They have conceded 10,2,2,2 in those 4 matches against top 5 away, an element of consistency which might back up the 1.3 quote for Twente.

Lost 2-0 v Ajax recently away and this should be within Twente's grasp.

We have to weigh up poor away form as against reasonable head to heads against Twente.

2pm - Notts Co v Man City - 1.41 away - is the romance of the Cup all but dead now we have squillionaires in the Premiership ensuring the gulf in class is much more marked?

Great result against Sunderland last round for Notts County and home advantage will have them brimming with confidence.County have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 matches - slight goal drought? Surely if they cannot score in their league recently, they're going to be short changed by a top quality England goalie and his lackies ahead of him?

County don't do draws at home - none in their last 12 matches. 4 match winning run ended with a 1 -0 league loss at home last time out.

8 match unbeaten away run ended at Villa last time out for City, and that was only 1-0.

Simply with these matches, you take an opinion - romance of the Cup or realism that the Sheikh's squillions should ensure victory.

3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.4 home - Scottish League Cup, home advantage, and like Panathanaikos yesterday, a team who have scored 3,4,4 in last 3 head to heads . Only 3 wins in their last 12 for Motherwell in all compeitions signals it is more likely to be a home win or draw than an away win.

4-1 in 2 matches this season home and away in the league v Motherwell is wholly convincing for a Rangers side who have only lost twice at home in the league - the rest wins and no draws.

Lay the Draw?

Motherwell have beaten 3rd, 4th and 5th away in the league, but have succumbed to the Big 2.

4pm - Eibar v Zamora - 1.33 home - Spanish 3rd flight and no real reason Eibar are so short

6pm - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.41 - just when I thought Real were becoming real consistent betting propositions, they fecked up against Almeria and all but wrapped up the La Liga title in a lovely purple and red bow for Barca.

The Special One's insistence on playing Kaka, who really is Kaka, is bewildering. Others misfiring include Benzema who really could not hit a Spanish cow's arse with a Spanish Banjo. Barca are the boys for me I think. Consistently winning and scoring 3 or more each match!! And no, I'm not bitter because Real cost me a one a day!

2-1 ( Osas home win) , Osas at home 0-0 , 3-2 real Home win, 1-0 Real Home win not that convincing in head to heads.

Osasuna are 17th and against 18th and 19th away from home, Real have drawn 0-0 and 1-1. Coincidence or just a frustration from the struggling sides?

Real have only failed to score in 3 matches this season and have scored in each of their last 7.WWWLWWD in last 7 away for Real Madrid. Loss to Barca and draw with 19th placed Almeria.

Osasuna have only played Barca of the top 10 at home which makes it difficult to see how they cope at home against better sides. Apart from Barca 3-0 loss at home, Osasuna are unbeaten at home.

No win in 8 matches though for Osasuna signals a draw at best against 2nd placed Real.

615 - Aves v Benfica - 1.45 away - 9 wins on the trot for Benfica, and 11 wins in last 12 matches - last draw for Benfica came 37 matches ago!!! They either win or lose ( logically!!) Aves are lower league opposition - Aves have scored 2,3,2,2 in their last 4 home matches.

LAy the draw is the standout stat for Benfica but goals also a consideration ( remember Porto away to Gil Vicente yesterday only managed a 2-2 draw in the Cup)

7pm - Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ - 1.3 away - worth investigating when a team is so short away from home - away side unbeaten in last 12 and have won their last 6 matches.

Home side have lost 8 and won 2 - those 2 wins in 2009 and home side look to be promoted to this league? 3 2011 RJ league matches have all seen defeats for CAbofriense 3-0, 5-0, 2-0.

1-0, 6-2, 3-1 for Fluminense in 2011 signals why they are short priced favs.

SHORTLIST

155 FAKENHAM - 1.06 to place and 1.1 to win for Line Freedom. Look to 2nd place for a superb payout. It will be between Farewell and Colleens.

325 FAKENHAM - the place only market is unanimous that Caught by witness will place - 1.14 to place

135 HEREFORD - I would look to Easter Meteor or Dovecote wood here to place instead of Cucumber run, for a far better payout in the place only market. Faith that the market is accurate.

315 KEMPTON - still 3 places, 6 horses and original favourite Super Frank maintains favouritsim, making his 1.2 interesting in the place only market. A 50/50 race here. 3 will place and 3 will not.

130pm - Twente v Feyenoord - 1.28 home - not sure if I can trust the win only on Twente given some head to heads. but Feyenoor have lost to all the top 5 away from home. Twente need the win to keep the pressure on PSV.
If there was some value way to lay Feyenoord, I would. Laying the draw to trade is a consideration. No draw in 13 for Twente.

2pm - Notts Co v Man City - 1.41 away - team news will determine confidence here but surely this is too much of a gulf in class for Notts County.
3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.4 home - league cup but is it any coincidence that Rangers have beaten Motherwell home and away in the league by the same scoreline - 4-1?

615 - Aves v Benfica - 1.45 away - no draw in 37 matches - make of that what you will!! Benfica are obviously the form team , but the same could be argued as regards Porto yesterday and they only drew.

7pm - Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ - 1.3 away - this looks a case of out-of-depth promoted home side v rock solid away side. Goals an interesting neutral bet if your Brazilian football knowledge is as weak as mine.







--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

29/1

Do I look for better odds today? Panathanaikos have scored 3,4,4 against today's opponents in their last 3 head to heads and are 1.31 at home, Lille look solid at home and are top of a tight French League. PSV Half time is 1.33 and over 2.5 goals is 1.35 ( which should come in for a 1.11 shot) The 105 Uttoxeter is a superb probability race - 6 horses and 3 places and 3 only under 25/1 - back Saoma and Diamond MM to place at better odds. Trust Man Utd to put it to Southampton at a tasty 1.5 given their strong form ( team news)
Or do I go for the obvious? PSV in the win only market at 1.1 looks great. Barcelona will show Hercules this evening that the 2-0 home defeat was due to the first the Barca first team were in action mid week in Argentina for a meaningless Spain v Argentina friendly. This looks a strong 1.17 and too good to ignore. Lightening will not strike twice ( it's available at 140 for 2-0 Hercules)
Decisions, decisions!!
Another strong day today


*****ONE A DAY 7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - back Barcelona in the match odds at 1.17***** - lightening surely does not strike twice. This is a strong message today that I will personally not be wasting. There are many strong bets between now and 7pm.


Possible multiple?

7 Selections Chosen 1 Southampton v Man Utd (Laying Southampton @ 8.77) 2 Panathinaikos v Ergotelis (Laying Ergotelis @ 16.73) 3 AZ Alkmaar v VVV (Laying VVV @ 23.44) 4 Hercules v Barcelona (Backing Barcelona @ 1.14) 5 PSV v Willem II (Backing PSV @ 1.06) 6 Lille v Lens (Laying Lens @ 14.4) 7 Gil Vicente v Porto (Laying Gil Vicente @ 12.54)

7-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7 1.79 £100.00 £79.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: £100.00 Your total potential win: £79.00

of course multiples increase our risk of a loser, but with the lays incorporated, we are covering 2 out of 3 outcomes in 5 of those matches.




Empire Levant won and the place price was around 1.2 again which, given the task, was welcome.

1250 - Swansea v L Orient - 1.47 home - Championship v League 1 - FA Cup. Last played 2008 where Swansea, in last 2 head to heads, scored 5 and 4 ( 2007 and 2008) - Swansea won last 4 matches 1-0, 1-0, 4-0, 3-0 at home. Leyton have drawn 50% of their last 12 away matches
230pm - W Bremen v B Munich - 1.75 away - strugglers v a team that goes 3rd with a win. - last 2 head to heads at Werder produced 5 and 4 goals. Only 2 away wins for bayern is too inconsistent, so perhaps default to a neutral goals bet, but only a 1/3rd of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
7/9 Werder home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.41 away - Scottish League Cup so watch out for changes in team
3pm - Burnley v Burton - 1.37 home - FA Cup, Championship v League 2. Form is not comparible, but Burton have won only once in last 11 away matches.
3pm - Linfield v Ballymena - 1.28 home - 1-0, and 2 draws in last 3 head to heads is not compelling enough to back Linfield despite solid recent winning form.
3pm - Nuneaton v Redditch Utd - 1.19 home - English conference match and I simply cannot trust these lower leagues ( and freely admit to knowing little about these leagues)
515pm - Southampton v Man Utd - 1.51 away - will Man Utd be wearing a grey strip today? And will that be the excuse if they lose. Again no real point in comparing form for 2 completely separate leagues, albeit to acknowledge United's unbeaten league record. Team news key.
530pm - Panathinaikos v Ergotelis - 1.31 home - 3-0, 4-1, 4-1 head to heads are convincing for Pana.7 points behind Oly, Pana must win. Playing 6th today but 41 points v 25 points tells you this is also rans territory!
WWWD in last 4 matches. DWWWDWWLWW at home for Pana. 3 home and 2 away matches v the top 5 have all been losses for Ergotelis which signals that there is a slight gap in class to the better teams.
Only 1 loss in last 7 for Ergo is a change in fortunes, 3 draws and 4 wins ( 3 of those wins came at home)
0-0 ( home), 0-1 ( away), 0-0 ( home) last 3. Will they be defensive ruiners today?
645pm - AZ Alkmaar v VVV - 1.24 home - Dutch top flight - draw and 1-0 wins in last 2 head to head ( both at VVV)
2nd from bottom for VVV and -19 goal difference says it all.
7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - 1.17 away - revenge is a dish best served away from home. Only defeat this season for Barca came after half their first team had to travel mid week to Argentina for an Argentina v Spain pointless friendly. Simply caught with their pants down at home. Expect thorough retribution tonight.
Current winning streak of 14 for Barca, and have won all 9 away matches.
Unbeaten in 18, and 89% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3,8,3,5,4 the goals scored in last 5 away matches by Barcelona.
With Champions League not until 16th February, you would expect the strongest possible side to be played and swift revenge.
LDLL against top 6 at home, but won against all outside the top 6 at home ( 5 wins) - a huge contrast when Hercules meet the elite.
Hercules have won their last 4 home matches, but remember this is against teams outside the top 6.
Lost 3 of last 4 matches ( 3 aways)
745pm - PSV v Willem II - 1.1 home - PSV have only lost one in last 12 in all competitions. Willem II have only won 1 in last 12 in all competitions and that was the 1-0 last time out against fellow strugglers Vitesse Arnhem.
PSV unbeaten in last 11 matches in all competitions. PSV are only one point ahead of Twente so must win when priced to do so and at home.
Only 2 defeats all season for PSV in 20 matches. Have only dropped points at home against the top 4 sides, and beat everyone else Against bottom 7 sides at home ( Willem are bottom), PSV have scored 6,5,10,4,3 and at 1.11 expected to replicate at least the 3 goals.
8 losses and 2 draws away. 1-0 win last time out the only win all season for Willem II
Have lost 2-0 to Ajax away, so a score to nil today would bump up the odds.
In only 1 match have they conceded less than 2 away.

8pm - Lille v Lens - 1.4 home - draw, win , win, for Lille in most recent head to heads. 4-1 last time out.Top of the league and such a tight head of the market means this is a must win for Lille to keep the 4 point gap which is a perfect gap ( with 3 points for a win) over the opponents.
Lens are 4th from bottom and just out of the relegation zone
Lille are unbeaten in 10, and not conceded in 2.7 wins and 3 draws in those 10 matches.
WWWDW at home.
Against 17th and 18th away, Lille scored 4 and 5 ( Lens are 17th)
Lens are undefeated in 3, including 2 home wins, against 8th ( bit of a shock) and 18th ( not so much a shock)
Lens have only won 1 away match all season and that was against the bottom side.
They have not played any of the top 5 away so I cannot gauge performance but they have lost 3 and drawn 1 to top 5 they have played at home.
1-1 draws away to 5th and 6th a slight concern.

815pm - Gil Vicente v Porto - 1.37 away - Portugeuse league cup so take an opinion based on league form if you must. This should go with the top flighters of Porto based on form and playing in a better league than the home side.

230 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Punchestowns, 5/2 Tidal Bay, 6/1 The Tother One, 8/1 Neptune Collonges, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tidal Bay would be hard to beat on these terms if again running to his best, as when second in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time. However, his overall record, including a well-held third in this race in 2009, raises enough doubts for preference to be for former top-class staying hurdler PUNCHESTOWNS, who made a bright start over fences last season before injury intervened and whose reappearance second at Newbury in December was perfectly satisfactory. Neptune Collonges may be best of the other three.[Mel Cullinan]

A high class favourite but only 2 places - Tidal Bay has been the one for support.

110 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alaivan, 11/10 Carlito Brigante.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two identically-rated rivals here, but slight preference is for ALAIVAN to confirm Triumph superiority having started the season with a comfortable win at Naas in November. [Alan Sweetman]

Simple 50/50

1250 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Wilfred Pickles, 8/1 King Of The Titans, 20/1 Mr Maximas, 66/1 Star Danser, 100/1 Bird Dog, 100/1 Ippi N Tombi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WILFRED PICKLES is very hard to oppose in this company. Winning hurdler King Of The Titans can get second.[Graeme North]

Very obvious contender here. King of the Titans looks the value alternative.

105 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Empress Orchid, 7/2 Saoma, 6/1 Diamond Mm, 25/1 Qualitee, 33/1 Misstaysia, 50/1 Go Ruby Go.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is an obvious concern this race will come too soon for form-pick Pepite Rose after yesterday's exertions and, although Soama should be checked in the market, the one to beat is probably EMPRESS ORCHID.[Frank Carter]

Only 3 under 25/1 and amzingly still 3 places

135 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Smuglin, 2/1 Evella, 16/1 Here´s The Key, 16/1 Home She Goes.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Evella may not have achieved much when gaining her first win over fences but her hurdling form earns her respect and she is capable of giving SMUGLIN plenty to think about.[Frank Carter]

4 horses and 2 places

SHORTLIST

515pm - Southampton v Man Utd - 1.51 away - looks tradeable - back at 1.51 and hope United score first. Or prepare for an enhanced trade if Southampton score first.
530pm - Panathinaikos v Ergotelis - 1.31 home - head to heads, 3,4,4 scored against Ergotelis - Ergo have lost in all encounters v top 5. Are on a slight revival but they struggle against top 5.
7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - 1.17 away - revenge the reason to back Barcelona. No midweek excursions to Argentina this time so a convincing away win on the cards.
745pm - PSV v Willem II - 1.1 home - over 2.5 goals an option here to better the odds, as it halftime/fulltime PSV/PSV - 1.28 over 2.5 goals and 1.33 half time PSV - opponents lead in only 5% of PSV's matches at half time.
20 goals scored at home, but 36 scored 2nd half for PSV but this is a PSV side at 1.11.
Opponents lead at half time in 55% of Willem's matches. Willem have lost at half time to all top teams they have played. Slight concern with their recent form

8pm - Lille v Lens - 1.4 home - could be a nice price for a team who beat Lens 4-1 last time out.
1250 LINGFIELD - Wilfred Pickles is 1.15 to win with Mr Maximas the 2nd fancy now at 2.22 to place.
105 UTTOXETER - best probability race - only 3 under 25/1 and 3 places.
1-1 Empress Orchid, 1.38 Saoma, 1.4 Diamond MM to place. Faith in the market and a clear round.

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28/1

***** ONE A DAY - 305 DONCASTER - Empire Levant to place only***** - this looks a 3 horse race for 2 places. Encouraging debut and expected by the race analyst then to win soon.
Clear round of jumping assumed and falls cannot be legislated for.




Kerada placed and a pleasing 1.2 at the off in the place only market was quite welcome given the task a 4/11 favourite had in a 4 horse race to beat 2 others to place.


A day of rather obscure football matches but there may be some standout stats that we can exploit ( along the lines of yesterday's Dutch Cup where 89% of Breda's away matches were over 2.5 goals.
12pm - HJK Helsinki v Haka - 1.36 home - a friendly between 2 teams in the Finnish top flight. - Helsinki have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches against Haka, but the friendly status of this match brings motivation into the equation.
12pm - Hong Kong FC v Citizen - 1.29 away - it's a first for me, the Hong Kong top flight!! The head to heads between these 2 start with 2 matches in 2006 , then there is a big gap to the next in 2010. I suspect Hong Kong FC have been playing in lower leagues in the interim ( only because Citizen are 1.29 away)
October 2010 saw Citizen win 4-1 and they are priced to repeat the dose today. As you would suspect with such a league as this one, there is little liquidity. I would opt for goals here Hong Kong have lost 10, drawn 1 and won 1 ( and that was a league cup match)
In the league at home recently, Hong Kong have conceded 2,3,3,2,3,4,4 - they look shocking - remember this is HOME FORM!!!!
Citizen's only loss in their last 12 matches has come in a league cup match.Citizen's have won 4 in their last 5 in all competitions away from home.
I think we are missing a trick here as this looks a great game for goals, but is wholly illiquid meaning you will not get the true prices.

1pm - Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Ironi Jatt - 1.31 home - Israeli 2nd flight and I don't think I want to push my luck by looking at such obscure leagues as this one. - away side have only won 2 of their last 12. Home side have only lost 2 of their last 12 ( both 1-0 losses) so look to justify the short odds.

545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - 1.59 home - 3rd against 10th and these Juliper league matches are investigating as I do every Friday - goals are the norm. Waalwijk have a +23 goal difference so we see their strengths immediately.
12 of Waalwijk's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
All of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Waalwijk have scored 5,1,3,2,5,1,4,2,4,3 in their last 10 matches.
89% of their home matches have finished over 2.5 goals .
78% of Den Bosch's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
These are impressive goals stats. Pretty much 9 out of 10 of Waalwijk's home matches and 8 out of 10 of Den Bosch's away matches are ending with 3 goals or more.
DDDDW last 5 a slight concern for over 2.5 goal backers as 3 of the draws were 1-1, but for safer over 1.5 goals matches all bar 2 of Den Bosch's 19 league games this season have seen that bet come in, and 18/19 of Waalwijk's matches have finished over 1.5 goals. Waalwijk's dropped points home and away seem to come when playing sides 6th -10th home and away ( draw, draw, loss, draw, draw in home and away matches) - indeed it was 2-2 against Den Bosch last time.So perhaps a neutral goals bet here. 1.15 over 1.5 goals looks great for this in running match.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v FC Eindhoven - the amazing over 2.5 goals 100% stat was broken last week for Fortuna because they played a team equally as bad, but will this goals stat return tonight? Back to normal it would seem! Head to heads between these 2 have all been over 2.5 goals in the last 5 most recent matches.3,3,6,5,4,3 scored in total in those matches. Not in running so we do not have over 1.5 goals option. the 1-0 v Almere last week was bottom 2 sides meeting so was never going to be a goal fest. 1.69 over 2.5 goals tonight is tempting albeit not in running, BUT Eindhoven's recent scorelines are anything but over 2.5 goals territory - 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 4-1, 1-0, 1-0
But they are playing inferior opposition tonight. A less than clear cut match I think.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - again not in running so not really appealing although Go ahead should find Almere easy meat at home today. 8,3,1,3 scored in the 4 home matches against bottom 8 sides.
Almere away have lost all bar 2 matches.

7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Roosendaal - 1.58 home - 6 draws and 4 wins at home for Sparta so Roosendaal more likely a lay here.
Sparta lost to Roosendaal at Roosendaal 3-0.
Away to top 9 ( Sparta are 7th) Roos have lost the lot.

155 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Brunston, 5/2 Andhaar, 5/2 Milgen Bay, 6/1 Whispering Death, 16/1 Drop The Hammer, 25/1 Dennis Doyle, 66/1 Artic Night, 66/1 December, 100/1 Okalydokely, 100/1 Perjury.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andhaar has more to do under his big penalty while Milgen Bay, just as he did in bumpers, failed to build on his hurdling debut effort at the second attempt. Both will have their work cut out against newcomer BRUNSTON if he proves as effective over hurdles as he was on the Flat.[Frank Carter]

There are only 4 horses under 25/1 in the betting here - rely on these 4 novice hurdlers for the 3 places?

305 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Empire Levant, 5/2 Palawi, 7/2 Franklino, 16/1 Cabal, 200/1 Farmers Glory, 200/1 Kai Broon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunty for the useful ex-French middle-distance performer EMPIRE LEVANT to build on his encouraging hurdling debut at Newbury last month. The penalised Palawi can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

3 horses under 16/1 here and yet another probability bet here. Trust the Nicholls horse Empire Levant to finish in the top 2.

100 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Definity, 9/4 Straw Bear, 9/1 Prince Du Beury, 20/1 L´homme De Nuit, 50/1 Paddy The Yank.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former high-class hurdler Straw Bear will be no pushover judged on a fair enough effort back from a year off over C&D this month but DEFINITY showed comparable form on his chase debut at Exeter in December and has by far the greater capacity for improvement. [Mel Cullinan]

Yet another probability bet with the front 2 horses 4/9 and 9/4 with next best 12/1. Will they dominate? Definity has only had the one chase run but represents Nicholls. Straw Bear is very well known from his high class hurdling exploits. He has had the intermittent chase ventures but no standout form there.

Faith in the markets and a clear round assumed for these "L" platers over the bigger chase fences.

115 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Plan A, 6/1 Scottish Boogie, 8/1 Knight Eagle, 8/1 Luddenmore, 8/1 Rocky Wednesday, 12/1 Narima, 12/1 Rainforest Magic, 12/1 Silver Shuffle, 14/1 Fammi Sognare, 14/1 Horsewithnoname, 14/1 Total Reality, 14/1 Violinist, 16/1 Luck Pennie, 20/1 Bondage, 20/1 Opening Nite, 25/1 Priors Gold, 33/1 Green Energy, 66/1 Abialright, 66/1 Dromore Lass, 66/1 Ms Whatshername.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gordon Elliott is responsible for a quarter of the field here, and the experience gained by PLAN A in Britain should help to give him an edge over Scottish Boogie and Knight Eagle, a useful Flat handicapper who was let down by his jumping at Limerick. [Brian Fleming]

If Gordon Elliot has 5 runners, then either his shortest price will be the main representative or this will be an engineered gamble on one of the bigger priced of the contingent.11/8 - - - 6/1 price gapper is Plan A for Gordon Elliott

Priors Gold and Green energy are the 2 bigger priced Elliott runners.

145 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mourad, 7/2 Powerstation, 9/2 Jumbo Rio, 7/1 Oscar Dan Dan, 12/1 Footy Facts, 16/1 Moskova.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The evidence suggests that MOURAD is developing into a very capable staying hurdler, and he should be able to uphold recent Leopardstown form with \Powerstation. His Hatton's Grace run gives him the beating of his other key-rivals, Oscar Dan Dan and Jumbo Rio. [Alan Sweetman]

mourad is a previous one a dayer representing the Mullins stable. Some really good quality horses here in opposition will ensure a decent place only price, as will the fact this is a 2 place race.

4/7 - - - - 5/1 price gapper.

330 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tharawaat, 9/4 The Hurl, 11/4 Quadrillon, 7/1 Kakagh, 33/1 Comicbookcharacter, 40/1 Quick De Maux.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This look a suitable opportunity for THARAWAAT to take another step up the novice ladder following an emphatic win at Down Royal. The main danger may come from The Hurl, providing that his jumping does not let him down. [Alan Sweetman]

4 horses under 33/1 here and again a probability race with 2 places and 4 likely contenders.

110 LINGFIELD

ETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Chevise, 11/2 Welsh Inlet, 6/1 Braehead, 8/1 Upark Flyer, 33/1 Fantale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHEVISE has a clear chance at the weights and is hard to oppose. Welsh Inlet may be second best.[Graeme North]

Huge price gapper here given field size, but, Gawd Elp Us, this is a class 6 5 furlong all weather claimer!

SHORTLIST

12pm - Hong Kong FC v Citizen - 1.29 away - A more liquid market and this is a one a dayer as far as goals is concerned. No money in the markets on Betfair. Bwin seems the only bookie with odds alternatives to Betfair.

545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - 1.59 home - 89% of home team's home matches and 78% of away side's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. This makes over 1.5 goals at 1.15 very enticing.

7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - laying Almere here could be the way to go. Or take a chance that Go ahead continue the dominance they have had over bottom 8 sides they have played at home.

305 DONCASTER - 3 horses under 20/1 for the 2 places - assumption of a clear round as ever.8/13 Empire Levant is currently 1.2 to place in what should be a 3 for 2 places race.

100 FONTWELL - I agree with Spotlight here that Straw Bear is not as good a chaser as he is a hurdler by any stretch. By default almost, Definity is the one who should take advantage. 1.17 to place as every relies on a clear round. Last race should be noted within the context of a return after 608 days so Definity should be all the better for that return run.

145 GOWRAN PARK - Mourant looks standout here for Mullins/Townend and was a one a day success last time I chose him. Lots of familiar names in opposition today will make for a tougher race, yet all the while Mourant is a clear price gapper.
8/13 - - - -6/1 price gapper. Yet again I repeat that we must see a clear round of jumping. I suspect Mourad might be Cheltenham Festival bound? At any rate, he looks standout in price and form here.

110 LINGFIELD - Chevise has already won it would seem, quoted at 1.11 to place - standout price gapper in a small field, but the race is poor - a class 6 5 furlong claimer.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - over 1.5 goals at 1.15 looks great and is in an in play market.

7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - probably better to lay Almere here as this is not in running. I could see Go ahead leading at some stage. But I said that about them last week in the shock loss to poor Telstar.

305 DONCASTER -Empire Levant a default choice in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places. 1.2 reasonable to place in this context - clear round assumed.

145 GOWRAN PARK - can Mourant do it again. Only 2 places so no 3rd place safety net. 1.23 to place in a currently illiquid market.

27/1

2 novice chases and a Cup match - oh ye betting gods!

I am going to chance Kerada today , as 1/3 strong favourite in a race which is 4 horses and 2 places. It could all go wrong on 2nd only chase run over a longer distance, but faith in the market - he is 1/3 for a reason

*****ONE A DAY - 300 FFOS LAS - Kerada to place - try to get around 1.14/1.15. May have to take Betfair SP*****

Faith in the market yesterday as Barca spanked Almeria again. Kaolak the choice for the day placed with ease and all of the football went as expected.

I was particularly pleased with my analysis of Porto's match, as nacional didn't get a sniff, as their Scoring Times research pointed out.

6pm - FC Copenhagen v Valerenga - 1.46 home - the next league match is the 6th March so this must be a friendly or a cup match to keep Copenhagen fit in the interim. Yes, as suspected, this is a friendly.Danish side v Norwegian side. I would instinctively look to goals.

745pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.28 home - a dutch cup match - both division 1 sides and not the gulf in leagues that I look for normally, but in head to heads it is clear that Ajax have the upper hand at home. 3-0, 6-0, 3-0
LDDW at home in the league and lost last match ( away to Utrecht 3-0) convincingly.
Breda are on a 5 match league unbeaten run, score drawing the last 2.
LLLLWD in last 5 aways.
Over 1.5 goals will cover any potential shocks I would suspect. Historically, Ajax have the edge but this is the Cup.

150 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rangitoto, 3/1 Lucky Landing, 11/2 Doctor Foxtrot, 6/1 Charming Lad, 10/1 Fiddlededee, 12/1 Mr Moss, 33/1 Fair Rome, 33/1 Jump Up, 33/1 The Humbel Monk, 50/1 Jan Jandura, 80/1 Thomas Bell, 100/1 Ostaadi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RANGITOTO was impressive when winning an Irish point in this month last year and should take some beating on his hurdling debut for Paul Nicholls if ready to fire. Lucky Landing is next best. [Dave Orton]

This should concern the 6 under 33/1 and we have a Nicholls fav without a run in nearly a year. Hmmm! Rangitoto is now 2/1 and drifting which is a slight concern given the absence and Lucky Landing may be worth the place only gamble? But again, as this is a maiden hurdle, all of these horses are pretty much in the same boat - i.e. inexperienced over hurdles under race conditions.

McCain/Maguire's Lucky Landing instead? - a 75 day absence , 2 point to points the only jumps experience. 1.5 and 1.7 to place tells you all you need to know about the ifs and buts of this race.

300 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Kerada, 15/2 Cobbler´s Queen, 15/2 Identity Parade, 10/1 Moorlands Teri.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is not much between all the runners on adjusted hurdles ratings but KERADA, who is the only one in obviously good form, sets a good standard and will be very hard to beat if she copes with the step up in distance. Identity Parade may give her most to do.[Frank Carter]

4 horses and 2 places here and an obvious favourite. We will get a better payout looking for the 2nd horse to place in this 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places. 1.15 to place for Kerada is a welcome surprise. I expected a lot lower for what is a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places.

A winner on chase bow on 19th January and the only chase run Kerada has had so that has to be accounted for.

Up in trip today to 24 furlongs, and has raced to a maximum of 22 furlongs. Soft ground today aswell. Chase winner on soft last time out. Slight niggle that Barry Geraghty is not taking the ride ( top jock for Henderson)

130 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Ya Hafed, 9/4 Baileys Agincourt, 16/1 Northumberland, 20/1 Ay Tay Tate, 25/1 Tobayornottobay, 33/1 Jack´s Rocket.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ya Hafed won't be found many better opportunities to get off the mark and has to go well, but taking very short prices about horses unproven on the surface is never the best policy. BAILEYS AGINCOURT didn't show much on his debut but his stable has an excellent record here and is 10-15 with its 3yos so far this month, so it will be surprising if there isn't a fair bit more to come.[Paul Smith]

Experience is very important here. Intriguing market with Jacks Rocket now quoted at 7/1 and Northumberland a lesser move into 7/1. Both market leaders have no experience of the surface.

315 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Joe Le Taxi, 5/1 Go Maggie Go, 8/1 Bobbyow, 12/1 Ridgeway Hawk, 20/1 These Dreams, 25/1 Ever Roses, 66/1 Likeable Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston's 3yos are flying at the moment and JOE LE TAXI, who left his maiden form behind him on his handicap debut, can overcome his penalty in this field. He is due to race off 65 in the future and although the surface is an unknown, he is expected to prove too strong for these rivals. Go Maggie Go could prove best of the rest.[Paul Smith]

Big price gapper here despite no experience of the polytrack - does have all weather experience and a Johnston horse ( why no Fanning on this one - he is at Southwell today?) Class 6 0-60 handicapper who should be starting a winning run, but a penalty and new surface are the niggles. Southwell is such a specialist surface that it is conceivable a strong market leader may not take to the surface, especially in this grade.

420 THURLES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 On The Fringe, 6/1 Top Twig, 8/1 Annacarton, 8/1 O Crotaigh, 10/1 Island Peak, 10/1 Viking Splash, 12/1 Bobbawn, 12/1 Boxer Georg, 12/1 Lord Multifix, 14/1 Whyso Mayo, 20/1 Dr Doocey, 20/1 Leaders Mate, 25/1 Kilmurry Kid, 25/1 Nanos Witness, 33/1 Classic Gallery, 33/1 Ithinkiwill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the fact that his fitness has to be taken on trust ON THE FRINGE is hard to oppose. He has the makings of a top-class performer in this category and should have too much firepower for rivals such as Top Twig, who has belatedly put his racecourse hoodoo behind him, and Annacarton. [Alan Sweetman]

Bolger/Macnamara are devastating in these kinds of races. Top Twig is next best as one of only 2 under 10/1 Interestingly On the fringe is a non runner which surely opens things up for Top Twig.

250 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 The Minack, 9/4 Balzaccio, 8/1 Lord Generous.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE MINACK has endless potential as a novice chaser and the signs were most encouraging at Wincanton, where his jumping impressed for a debutant. He should prove too good for Balzaccio, even with the weight concession.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 horses and 2 places here, great probability race - clear round of jumping required - the Minack is 1.12 to place and has a reasonable chance of placing .

Balzaccio is clear 2nd favourite here and should be considered for value seekers as a place only alternative. 1.28 to place

SHORTLIST

745pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.28 home - 1.15 over 1.5 goals as this is a cup game and I would prefer a neutral bet, despite Ajax having clear head to head advantage at home.

300 FFOS LAS - Kerada to place is a reasonable 1.15 ( as long as the market remains liquid) and could be worth the shout despite obvious lack of chase experience ( only 2nd run today)

420 THURLES - Top Twig could be a good placer here now with a significant non runner.Illiquid market but shoul be 1.37 to place.

250 WARWICK - 3 horses and 2 places and 1.12 for the Minack.Balzaccio is very tempting for King/Thornton as clear 2nd favourite at around 1.28 to place. Presumption of course that the market is accurate and these horses complete - novice chasers again.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

745pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.28 home - -it's 50/50 for Ajax at home for over 2.5 goals but 89% of Breda's league matches have been over 2.5 goals, which makes me think over 1.5 goals has a chance of success today. Cup match
This looks like a one legged match so all to play for today. Interestingly these 2 meet at the weekend in the League ( away at Breda) so this may be a psychologically important match as the winner today will take momentum into the weekend.

we have novice chases dominating today and you take your chance with novice chasers, although the 2 mentioned obvious ones have had that important chase win .

250 WARWICK - the Minack has the greater probability chance of placing, but those words " with a clear round" should be firmly mentioned. We always assume a clear round and it is not always the case .Balzaccio is a value alternative but again in a 3 horse race we need to rely on the horse completing and running as a strong 2nd favourite should.

300 FFOS LAS - soft ground ( Kerada has run on soft) and up in trip today, but at 1/3 you would expect a strong run and in a 4 horse race for 2 places the hope is -guess what - for another clear round.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

26/1

Horses or football today? Horse wise, I would shortlist Kaolak ( 105 Musselburgh), Bullfive( 355 Lingfield -only 2 places and a maiden but looks to be a 2 horse race - only 2 under 18/1) , and football wise, Porto stand out against a team who cannot seem to score


*****ONE A DAY - 105 MUSSELBURGH - Koalak to place. Around 1.18***** I hope he puts in a clear round.




Easy for over 1.5 goals yesterday and traders would have backed Man Utd at 2-0 down . I also mentioned looking out for late goals as Blackpool, West Brom and Wolves all concede late ( no coincidence that they are all promoted sides)

Dolgopolov gave Murray a good match, which was ideal for the 1.14 lay trade of Murray.

2pm - Atromitos Yeroskipou v Omonia - 1.4 away - 6-0 first leg and a question mark regarding motivation . Note Barcelona were in a similar position in their 2nd leg against a team they beat 5-0 in the first leg. They lost 3-1. Psychologically it is so difficult for a team to get up again for the match.
4pm - Gaziantepspor v Beypazari Sekerspor - 1.38 home - top flight v Turkey TFF.2 League so a marked gulf in class. DDDDWDW for Gaziantepspor in their last 7 matches -we can see a slight problem here.
DDWWDWDDLWDD for Beypazari - more draws. Gaziantepspor have played a lot of friendlies recently so that form cannot really be taken to heart. Still the draws are a slight concern.
6th in Turkish top flight so are handy. Have won 2 at home against 3rd and 4th in the league.

7pm - Sevilla v Real Madrid - Spanish Cup and the general trend is towards goals here. 4,7,6,3,5,1 -total goals scored in their last 6 head to heads. The 1 was the last match in head to heads and looks anomolous.
2-4 and 2-1 at Sevilla for head to heads. Trust in goals. I would need to see team news for Real Madrid as the Special One might tinker. This is the first leg.
Sevilla have won 4 of their last 5 at home in all competitions.
LDW last 3 away for Real, but one was 2nd leg v a Levante side they absolutely spanked. Of more concern was the 1-1 draw v Almeria.
Difficult to judge Real Madrid here.

730pm - Aachen v B Munich - 1.34 away - Division 2 v Division 1 in the German Cup -faith in the big boys - 10th in Division 2 and lost against 2/3 of the top 5 they have played at home. This I would equate to lower half of Bundesliga top flight ( if that makes sense)
WDWLW last 5 for Aachen is reasonable form.
Bayern have lost only one of last 12 in the league so have returned to the kind of consistency that should ensure they climb up the table.
WWWWWDW in last 7 for Bayern in all competitions is great form - WWWD last 4 away matches - the 1-1 draw saw a missed penalty by Bayern which could have swung things in their favour ( Bayern's opponents did miss a penalty too though)
730pm - White Star Woluwe v Gent - 1.34 away - Division 3b versus top flight. -pretty much a reliance on the gulf in the leagues here for another cup match.
745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home- this is a league match so should see a motivated Porto side.Porto have won the last 4 league encounters and have lost 2 against Nacional when they have met in the Cup.
3-0, 4-0, 2-0 ( Home, Away, Away) and Porto have shut out Nacional in their last 3 head to heads. Priced to be as dominant tonight.
8 points ahead in the league and a +33 goal difference tells you the strengths of Porto.
Unbeaten all season. How about this for form - WWWWWWDWWWWDWWWWW in the league for Porto.
At home it is a case of WWWWWWWWW and only once have they scored less than 2 goals at home.
Nacional are 5th at present so no pushovers, although this season Porto won 2-0 away.

Nacional's weaknesses begin to show when they play teams in the top 7 of the league. They lost 4-2 away to 2nd placed Benfica, drew 1-1 with Sporting, lost 2-1 to 6th placed Leiria and lost 2-0 to Braga. It is really against the bottom teams where Nacional have come good.

In 17 matches, Nacional have only scored 2 goals in the first half of matches.
Porto have scored 22 in the first half and conceded only 2 goals . Can you see where I'm headed? Lay Nacional at half time, back Porto and hope they score first as the stats indicate they should.


830pm - Rio Ave v Benfica - 1.41 away - Portugeuse cup does not really interest.

9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - WWWDW and an 8-0 away league win last time out. Beware the wounded animal who will not want to suffer another humiliation. 1.08 tells you this should be over 3.5 goal territory.
Barca have scored 29 and conceded 5 in the first half of league matches this season. This is a Cup match albeit against a team in the top flight. Almeria gave Real Madrid a scare when Real visited and showed a fighting spirit which may frustrate Barca. This is the first round of the Cup and there is always a concern that teams will not be busting a gut if they lose or draw the first round.
Any play here would be reliant on team news.

Be wary too - new management for Almeria .Lost 4, won 6 and drawn 2 since that 8-0 thumping by Barca which cost the previous manager his job.
2-3 ( away win), 2-1 ( home win), 4-3 (home win) , 3-4 ( away win) , 1-0 home win, 2-3 away win for Almeria in the Cup means that this 1.08 for Barca could be layable.
I suspect we will see the first team for Barca which should result in a win, my only concern is whether to go halftime/fulltime Barca /Barca and over 2.5 goals to enhance the odds.

2359pm - Corinthians v Tolima - 1.34 home - Corinthians have either won or drawn their last 12 and WWWWWD last 6 in all competitions at home. This is the Copa Libertadores tonight.
Tolima come from the Columbian lower leagues it would seem. My knowledge is weak as regards this competition and how it is formated and that gap in knowledge may leave me deciding the wrong thing.


115 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Araldur, 9/4 Spanish Treasure, 11/2 Alystar, 13/2 Robin De Creuse, 12/1 High Hoylander, 14/1 Mr Chow, 16/1 Nobunaga, 20/1 Prince Of Dreams, 25/1 Lombok, 33/1 Fourth In Line, 33/1 Kayaan, 50/1 Ptolomeos, 66/1 Bahr Nothing, 100/1 Whatshallwedo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Araldur sets the standard on his reappearance second behind a useful type at Leicester and is strongly respected but slight preference is for SPANISH TREASURE who looked highly promising when winning at Hereford and is open to plenty of improvement.[David Moon]

Only 4 under 20/1 so faith in Aruldur to place for Thornton/King

735 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 But Beautiful, 7/2 Bold Ring, 11/2 Profligate, 8/1 Perfect Ch´i, 10/1 Pragmatist, 16/1 Pippbrook Ministar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The well-bred BUT BEAUTIFUL has stepped up massively on her debut effort with two wins at this track, beating Bold Ring last time, and should have plenty more to offer.[Steven Boow]

Huge price gapper here in But Beautiful who holds steady at 8/13 here. A 14 day course and distance winner, is the weight going to get But Beautiful as it did French Hollow?

Heavy ground at Limerick precludes interest there.

355 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kahfre, 5/4 Bull Five, 16/1 Gabrielle Da Vinci, 16/1 Sirdave, 25/1 Harrys, 33/1 Set Em Up Mo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kahfre may not be entirely straightforward and drops back half a mile in distance but he's the marginal pick on official figures in a weak maiden. Given the potential chinks in his armour, preference is for main form rival BULL FIVE.[Steven Boow]

3 under 16/1 here - trust them in this maiden?

Bull five looks the choice here with all sorts of contraptions fitted on Kahfre.

105 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kaolak, 6/4 Silverlord, 17/2 Raleigh Quay, 25/1 Northern Acres, 33/1 Jersey Boys, 33/1 Lisbon Lion, 33/1 Via Archimede, 50/1 Dirleton, 50/1 Parc Des Princes, 50/1 Takaatuf, 66/1 Davy Boy Legend, 100/1 Cool Baranca, 200/1 Lambrini Lace.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Essentially a match between Silverlord and KAOLAK, who were both around Listed class on the Flat and have gradually got it together over hurdles. The penalty brings them close together, with slight preference for the latter, who has that bit more toe on drying ground.[Graham Wheldon]

Only 3 under 25/1 here at time of writing. Which to choose? Any choice would assume that both horses place.

405 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Felix Yonger, 5/1 D´gigi, 10/1 Distime, 12/1 Big Sam, 12/1 Dizzy River, 16/1 Way To Finish, 20/1 De Vine Memory, 50/1 Civil Unrest, 66/1 Pas Trop Tard.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Optimist's Cheltenham backers will be looking for FELIX YONGER, who chased him home when both made their debut around the New Year, to give the effort a boost.[Graham Wheldon]

Bumpers, as you know, rely on the market and at time of writing, Distime is really fancied and backed into 2nd favourite at 5/2. Big Sam is another potential market mover into 8/1 .

9 horse race this one and there are only 4 under 20/1 - I reiterate that the market at about 4pm will make our minds up as regards whether Felix Yonger will still be head of the market.

SHORTLIST

7pm - Sevilla v Real Madrid - the last match was an anomolous 1 match affair and the return of Kaka ( lives up to his name) to Real Madrid's squad simply squashes the previous free flowing football of previously. 1.2 over 1.5 goals. This is nowhere near as nailed on as Blackpool v Man Utd for instance as Real have been poor of late. This is a 2 legged match too so a 1-0 for Real Madrid would suffice.
We cannot legislate for changes in team news either for Real.

730pm - Aachen v B Munich - 1.34 away - German Cup match and the hope is that the gulf in class should tell for Bayern here. Away matches always of some concern in the Cup. But this is a one leg affair judging by the fixture list for Bayern. Robben plays and that makes the difference. A very tough match for Bayern in a difficult betting day.

730pm - White Star Woluwe v Gent - 1.34 away - should be a win for the 3rd in the top flight away side .

745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home-this all points to a home win to nil given Nacional's poor record away to top 7 sides .


9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - different manager and wounded animal syndrome makes this a potential frustrating evening for Barca, but against 1.08 sides they have managed to score easily and early.

115 HUNTINGDON - 4 under 25/1 here but both favs are currently 2/1 and the other 2 horses are the flies in the ointment - one WILL NOT PLACE, but which one?
1.34 for Aruldur and 1.38 for Spanish Treasure

355 LINGFIELD - looks like a 2 horse race if the market can be trusted in this maiden. Kahfre is the place only market fancy with Bull five next at 1.3 to place ( illiquid market) - the latter could be the choice given Kahfre is wearing visors and all sorts.

105 MUSSELBURGH - 3 horses under 33/1 only here , so which of Kaolak, Silverlord and Raleigh Quay will falter ( if any?)

1.18 Kaolak and Silver Lord to place. Can we rely on the betting and their jumping ( novice hurdlers)

405 MUSSELBURGH and 735 KEMPTON both need market consultation nearer the off ( the former because it is a bumper and the latter because it is some 8 hours prior as I write)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

730pm - White Star Woluwe v Gent - 1.34 away - illiquid match odds market. I have missed a lot of these Belgian Cup matches where top flight teams were reasonably priced and all won.
A sever lack of market interest until we see £1800 in at 1.27 which is where we are at with Ladbrokes.

745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home - Nacional have scored 2 goals only in the first half of their 17 matches in the League this year.Porto have scored 22 and conceded only 2. In fact all season they have conceded only 7. In the first hour of all matches they have conceded only 2 and scored 27 goals. Logic therefore dictates they are the team more likely to score in this match ( head to heads in the league back this up too, as does Nacional's poor away form against top 7 (LDLL)

Slight concern Porto have not met 3rd, 4th at home ( playing 5th today) so we cannot gauge how they played against better sides at home.
Nacional may be 5th but remember they have 25 points as against Porto's 47.


9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - Barca were around this price against Racing and Malaga ( 2-0 and 3-0 within half an hour) - can they do so again v Almeria who might be a frustrating side to play against in this 1st leg cup match

355 LINGFIELD - Bullfive has a good place only chance in a race where only 2 are under 18/1. yes a maiden, but faith in the market. Only 2 places and Bullfive is the bigger priced of the 2.

105 MUSSELBURGH - should be between Silver Lord and Koalak -trust these 2 to put in a clear round. I cannot split them and would go with Kaolak.