back-lay-trade-horses-football: 31st July 2011

I was taken by the head to heads with Zenit and Nalchik -but Zenit, in last 2 matches won 1-0 and drew 0-0 - is this why the over 1.5 goals is 1.24? 9 of Nalchik's last 10 matches have been over 1.5 goals.

*****ONE A DAY - 525 GALWAY - COMEDIC ART TO PLACE ONLY***** - The Zenit match could easily be very tight despite the fact that we could argue for goals given head to heads -I have opted for Comedic Art today as the Weld horse - one of 3 under 16/1 at Galway.

Very happy with message yesterday despite extraneous circumstances, and there may be disruption tomorrow and the next day as I am visiting my Mother again. So I apologise in advance.

12 out of 14 German Cup matches yesterday were over 2.5 goals. THe other 2 were 2-0's and only one of those was an unsuccessful over 2.5 goal trade as Frankfurt scored twice in 86th to 90th minute.
And the day before was all over 2.5 goals. Prices today signal goals again, so remember 1.04 and 1.02 shots are backable , perhaps in the goals markets -over 3.5 and over 4.5 and higher goals.

Most of the German Cup matches today are illiquid which is a pity ( on Betfair anyway)

130pm - Anker Wismar v Hannover - 1.04 away - German Cup
130pm - Eimsbutteler v G Furth - 1.02 away - German Cup
130pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Spartak Nalchik - 1.2 home
HEAD TO HEADS

03.04.2011	D1	Spartak Nalchik	2-2	Zenit St Petersburg
03.10.2010	D1	Spartak Nalchik	2-3	Zenit St Petersburg
06.05.2010	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	3-1	Spartak Nalchik
25.10.2009	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	2-2	Spartak Nalchik
14.06.2009	D1	Spartak Nalchik	2-2	Zenit St Petersburg

Goals Goals Goals. Zenit score 2 or more against Spartak and Spartak have scored in all recent head to heads against Zenit.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th so Zenit in good form.

HOME TEAM - Zenit

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDWWWD - draws against 4th, 7th and 10th and sole loss v top side CSKA which is not unexpected. WIns against 5th, 6th, 8th, 15th, 16th . And they are playing 14th today so a good sign that Zenit are not struggling at home against bottom sides.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLWWDDDLWDWWWDW - only 2 losses against 1st and 11th. REcent draws against 3rd and 12th

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 1 loss, 3 draws , 6 clean sheets at home.1.78 scored and 0.67 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 8 overall without a loss, 4 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - NALCHIK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDDLLLW - win was against bottom side.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDDLLLDDDDLLLLWD - win and draw recently against bottom and 2-2 draw against 9th. Losses v 1st, 6th, 7th, 12th.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 5 losses, 3 draws , 3 clean sheets - 0.44 scored, 1.11 conceded on average away. Keep things tight.

STREAKS - 5 away matches without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - -Nalchik seem to keep things tight away from home. Although I do not have soccerstats for the Russian League, they conceded only 1.11 on average away from home, albeit scoring only 0.44. But, what about head to heads! Both teams score and concede against each other regularly and a goals bet could be the call here to buck Nalchik's current goals trend. Only one loss at home for Zenit against CSKA so worse case I suspect today will be a score draw.

3pm - Germania Windeck v Hoffenheim - 1.04 away - German Cup
3pm - Hearts v Dundee Utd - 2.18 home -I was quite impressed with Hearts last week away at Rangers and they should be competitive today.
2 1-1 draws for both sides and they look well matched today and are likely to be 3rd and 4th in this league.
345pm - Dinamo Moscow v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.28 home
HEAD TO HEADS

02.04.2011	D1	Volga N.Novgorod	3-0	Dynamo Moscow
22.09.2010	Cup	Dynamo Moscow	4-1	Volga N.Novgorod

Interesting win for Volga in the leagu as recently as April somewhat questions the 1.28 quote for Dinamo at home today. Will the form bear this out?

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd against 13th

HOME TEAM - Dinamo Moscow

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLDDWDWW - sole loss at home v 15th - draws at home v 1st, 2nd and 5th and all score draws

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWDDWWDLWWWW - sole loss recently against 4th in league. 4 match winning streak v 6th, 7th, 11th, 15th

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 clean sheets 2.13 scored, 0.88 conceded - naturalised over 2.5 goals at home?

STREAKS - 6 wins in a row - 7 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - VOLGA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDLLLW - wins against 11th and 15th - 4 of 6 losses away were 1-0's

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDLWLLLWLL - wins as above and sole draw recently a 1-1 v 14th in league. Losses v1st, 2nd, 4th,5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th, and playing 3rd today

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw , 1 clean sheet, 1 scored, 1.33 conceded on average away

STREAKS - Volga conceded 2 or more in 5 of last 6 matches ( 5 losses)

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Dinamo Moscow are stronger on recent form but how important was that 3-0 home win for Volga in April 2011? Only 1 loss at home for Dinamo Moscow at home

420pm - Arsenal v New York Red Bulls - 1.33 home - Thierry Henry factor here brings Arsenal to meet New York and if we look at American teams against the big boys they have all been VERY comfortably beaten.
430pm - FC Teningen v Schalke - 1.04 away - German Cup.
430pm - SC Wiedenbruck v FC Koln - 1.23 away - German Cup.
430pm - Zweibrucken v Mainz - 1.14 away - German Cup and probably an automatically shortlisted match given Mainz have played a European League match and drew that. MEntally I would hope they would want to win this match

7pm - Club Brugge v Westerlo - 1.44 home - Belgian top flight begins. Far too early to get involved.

355 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 El Toreros, 8/1 Beauty Express, 9/1 Some Slam, 10/1 Kardyls Hope, 12/1 Badger Or Bust, 12/1 Rock On Ciara, 12/1 Ultra Cool, 14/1 Knights Templar, 14/1 Mamma Rosa, 14/1 Miranda´s Girl, 14/1 Swing Pattern, 16/1 An Saighdiur, 16/1 Indicative, 20/1 Emily Jane, 20/1 Independent Girl, 25/1 Haaf Ok.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EL TOREROS is likely to have had this race on his agenda for quite some time and he is selected to prevail. At a much bigger price, Emily Jane is worthy of consideration. [Kevin Blake]

Dermot Weld in price gap favourite at GAlway shocker!!

525 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Comedic Art, 5/2 Jazz Girl, 3/1 Maggie Neary, 10/1 Landenstown Lady, 16/1 Jubilant Times, 16/1 Looks All Right, 25/1 Cloud Hawk, 25/1 Tarwiyna, 33/1 Spring Crocus.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Comedic Art is sure to be popular, but JAZZ GIRL shaped very nicely on her debut and could well improve enough to win this. [Kevin Blake]

and again here in what is likely to be a 4 horse race at a stretch. 3 under 16/1 in the live betting and Weld fav in Comedic Art. No Pat Smullen today a slight dampener of my enthusiasm regards the Weld runners today

SHORTLIST

130pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Spartak Nalchik - 1.2 home - 1.24 over 1.5 goals is very tempting indeed looking at head to heads. 1.11 aerage conceded away for Nalchik at present perhaps the reason why over 1.5 goals is bigger than match odds.