Tuesday 26 July 2011

26/7

We'd be taking a punt with the fitness of Twente but home advantage should tell if they are fit, and they may be worth a punt this evening in the Champions League. At Galway, the 2 Weld shorties are worth following but I cannot tell you the odds for the place at all.

This leaves the 235 Goodwood and Fiorente to place. I hope the market is accurate as I write -in these big meetings, it can change nearer the off and change your mind compared to 1145am. but I will place faith in the market ( 4 under 20/1 to dominate), the form with Nathaniel, and the ultra professionalism of Ryan Moore.

*****ONE A DAY - 235 GOODWOOD - FIORENTE TO PLACE ONLY - at around 1.28***** Please wait for the market to gain liquidity as it will as it is televised and a big meeting.



CSKA won easily and scored all the goals, alas they scored an own goal for opponents otherwise the 2-0 would have come up.

515pm - Barcelona v Internacional - 1.55 home - unlikely to lose but 0-0 a real possibility with what is likely to be the Barcelona B side. The odds will drop considerably if the team is stronger than it was against Hajduk. Internacional have already played 6 matches in July so are in good nick. Team news is key with Barca. Remember they had 72% possession against Split, and Villa could have scored 2.

745pm -
Rangers v Malmo FF - 1.43 home - Malmo have played 17 already this season and are 9th in the Swedish top flight. RAngers drew 1-1 v Hearts ( not wholly unexpected) and were a little jaded. I cannot fathom why they are so short in this Champions League match.

745pm -
Twente v FC Vaslui - 1.33 home - Twente still in pre season and have played 4 this July. They are superb at home domestically and we have to go by the odds here as they have not met their Romanian compatriots before. Likely to be goals if Twente are fully wound up.



Tough coupon today as it seems to be Champions League qualifier day and a lot of teams are well matched in the betting market.

210 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Croquembouche, 4/1 Ghalaa, 6/1 Bitaphon, 20/1 Phoenix Order, 25/1 Astonished Harry, 25/1 Forster Street, 33/1 Landown Littlerock, 33/1 Up Ten Down Two, 66/1 Dr Irv.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CROQUEMBOUCHE finished nicely clear of the remainder behind a stablemate of Ghalaa on debut, despite showing signs of inexperience, and will be hard to beat now he's had a run.[Graham Wheldon]

1/3 - - -3/1 - - - 10/1 - - -33/1 price gap here and another one time out 2 year old . Surely the 3/1 horse Ghalaa has as equal a chance of playing.

715 GALWAY


BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mahaazen, 7/2 Soon, 4/1 Shamooda, 5/1 Redoutable, 6/1 Precious Dream, 7/1 Jemima´s Pearl, 10/1 Foolish Lady, 10/1 Silver Sycamore, 20/1 Sweet Annathea, 50/1 Rio Antoinette.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dermot Weld has won four of the last five runnings of this event and has the likely solution again in the shape of MAHAAZEN. The John Oxx-trained newcomer Shamooda is noteworthy, and the Ballydoyle runner Soon may improve past Redoutable. [Alan Sweetman]

7/4 - - - 5/1 this Weld trained favourite but only the one run for this maiden. In Galway I would look to the bigger priced Weld runners - he only got one winner yesterday and is expected to redress the balance eventually ( 11 winners at the festival last year) - Stunning view could be a good each way call in the previous race at Galway if you believe in following Weld horses at value prices.

815 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Catch The Eye, 3/1 Diamond Daze, 4/1 Jouster, 14/1 Sweet Rhythm, 14/1 Tamujin, 50/1 Blue Eyed Bandit, 100/1 Friend Request.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No marks for originality but CATCH THE EYE represents a yard seeking a four-timer in this maiden and there's no rival of Group-race potential to worry about this time. Diamond Daze may offer most resistance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another Weld favourite - only 2 places so likely to be reasonable price.

235 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fiorente, 5/1 Slumber, 11/2 Namibian, 10/1 Hunter´s Light, 20/1 Dordogne, 20/1 Highland Castle, 20/1 Hurricane Higgins, 20/1 Moriarty, 20/1 Yaseer, 25/1 Measuring Time, 33/1 Well Sharp.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FIORENTE, second to Saturday's King George winner at Royal Ascot last month, should be able to find further improvement and enhance his trainer's fine record in this. Slumber looks one for the each-way thieves after a luckless run at Royal Ascot that was franked in France on Sunday.[Paul Johnson]

11/10 - - 4/1 Ryan Moore onboard a favourite sounds like my cup of tea.

635 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Atlanta Falcon, 2/1 Jive Master, 5/2 Gordonsville, 14/1 Gearbox, 14/1 Oakmoss, 20/1 Tekthelot, 66/1 Askalott, 66/1 Forshour.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Atlanta Falcon and Jive Master are taken seriously, having won two bumpers each but GORDONSVILLE showed enough on his hurdles debut in 2010 to suggest he can win in this sphere and his recent Flat form confirms he retains plenty of ability. [Chris Wilson]

3 under 16/1 in this maiden hurdle.

910 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 With Grace, 7/1 Makhaaleb, 9/1 Swiss Guard, 11/1 Grand Diamond, 12/1 Dancing Gizmo, 12/1 Long Distance, 14/1 Regent´s Secret, 16/1 Front Rank, 16/1 Pete, 16/1 Zahara Joy, 25/1 Barliffey, 33/1 Chateau D´eau, 33/1 Lisbon Lion.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WITH GRACE comes here in fine form and will be difficult to beat if in the same mood as when scoring with plenty left in the tank off today's mark at Bangor a week ago. [Chris Wilson]

6/5 - - - 5/1 - Swiss Guard is the mover.

555 WORCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Escudero, 5/2 Cock Of The Rock, 9/2 Shake The Barley, 5/1 Akbabend, 20/1 Ahjayah, 28/1 Enviromental Dream, 40/1 Ringsend Rose, 66/1 Kilbready Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cock Of The Rock is an interesting recruit from bumpers, a sphere in which he won twice from four starts, all of them here. He is much respected but ESCUDERO is already proven over hurdles and can make that experience count. [Mel Cullinan]

5 under 33/1 and now 7 runners for 3 places. Novices Hurdle.

755 WORCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Round Tom, 13/8 Markington, 4/1 Oursininlaw, 33/1 Cengiz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROUND TOM could provide the answer if all goes well on his chasing debut.[Jonathan Neesom]

3 under 33/1 for a probability bet in this beginner's chase.

SHORTLIST

515pm - Barcelona v Internacional - 1.55 home - the spoiler is likely to be the 0-0 which pervaded the Hajduk Split match. Team news really key. The big boys back = a drop in price. Watch out if 0-0 at half time for changes in team as well.

745pm - Rangers v Malmo FF - 1.43 home - you'll likely get a better price in play if Malmo's match fitness ensures a tight early match. Away goals key here so expect Rangers to keep it tight themselves and try to nick the win.

745pm - Twente v FC Vaslui - 1.33 home - Twente at home are goal laden domestically and priced to keep it up against Romanian opposition.

210 BEVERLEY - Croquembouche is 1.07 to place and value might be had in Ghalaa to place at 1.3 ish ( market is illiquid). Problem - Ghalaa is a debutant.

715 GALWAY - Weld runners at short prices should be effective at a festival he farms.Mahaazen to place here could be a good price. Illiquid market at present.

815 GALWAY - 4 under 25/1 here and another Weld Fav.2 places and the market is not liquid.

235 GOODWOOD - 4 under 20/1 here and Fiorente must have a good chance of placing. 1.28 to place is reasonable. Ryan Moore in the plate. Fiorente was close to Nathanial who won at the weekend ( somewhat fortunately with Rewilding's injury preventing him from putting up a fight?)








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