17/7

For me it is Copenhagen over 1.5 goals at a nice 1.3 today ( 31 of 33 matches last year over 1.5 goals and first 8 away matches last year all over 2.5 goals - last 4 head to heads all over 2.5 goals)
The other shortlister would be Newbury Hall here, but I am put off by the fact this is a 2 year old horse with only 1 race. Still, 3 under 20/1 for 2 places and facing a debutant today, Newbury Hall has placed on this ground.

***** 3pm - 3pm - SonderjyskE v FC Copenhagen - back over 1.5 goals at 1.3 minimum. Plenty of liquidity for one of the major european leagues****** My decision making has been poor of late, I hope I do not rue the first match of the season with strong favourite away from home. Historical head to heads point to dominance by Copenhagen. Form from last year points to 31 of 33 matches in the league over 1.5 goals. Home side's 11 of 12 home and away matches against top 6 all over 1.5 goals. I hope you agree there is a case, at the odds, for backing over 1.5 goals.






Good research, poor decision making again. There was Helsinki,and Rangers, and the former far stronger than an Arsenal friendly.

1pm - FC Istra v Spartak Moscow - 1.16 away - Russian Cup Division 3 v Division 1. No real form to go on albeit recent friendlies for Spartak, losing both, and league matches for Istra, losing both 1-0. As ever, with Cup matches, a gulf in leagues is what you want to see.
3pm - SonderjyskE v FC Copenhagen - 1.5 away - first match for these 2 of a new season and all we have to go on is past form via head to heads, and how the teams performed last season.
01.05.2011 D1 FC København 3-0 SønderjyskE
14.11.2010 D1 SønderjyskE 3-3 FC København
18.07.2010 D1 SønderjyskE 1-3 FC København
16.05.2010 D1 FC København 3-1 SønderjyskE
21.03.2010 D1 SønderjyskE 0-2 FC København
29.10.2009 Cup SønderjyskE 5-0 FC København
Goals galore with Copenhagen scoring 3 in their last 2 aways and 3 in their last 3 league matches.
1st v 7th last season and Copenhagen were totally dominant.
Only 2 losses last season, both away, and one of them when they already had the title wrapped up.
Averaged 1.93 scored away and 1.12 conceded away all last season, 69% over 2.5 goals.2 away losses came against top 4 sides last year.
Copenhagen failed to score in only 2 matches last year.
They started the season last year against same opponents and away , winning 1-3. They won the next match 1-2 so it seems Copenhagen do not suffer first match nerves.
Last season, Sonder found life difficult against the top 6 at home, losing 4, drawing 1 and winning 1.
This form was replicated away so can suggest they may struggle against top sides again this season.
A 50/50 overs/unders percentage last season suggests that overs punters will have to rely on their opponents'likely %
Going by head to heads and overall form from last season ( which is not an ideal form of research), this looks a game Copenhagen should not lose. In fact, they could score 2/3 and best case for Sonder may be a 2-2, 3-3 correct score. Over 1.5 goals? As Copenhagen should score at least one.
NOTE - I do not have recent team news for Copenhagen. Any team changes? Departures of strong players?
630pm - Zilina v MFK Kosice - 1.29 home - Slovakian league about to start and last head to head saw a 1-0 Kosice win in May 2011 ( note that was the end of the season and Zilina may have wrapped up the title and thus taken foot off the pedal)
Previous to that win, Zilina won 4-1, 2-0, 4-0, 4-0 which signals the potential for a win to nil today with home advantage,
Again, looking at last year for any cues, this match is 3rd v 10th of 12, and Zilina the dominant force in Slovakian Football. Zilina won their opening game last year 2-1.
It took Kosice 7 matches to record a win last year, and they lost their opening match 2-1 away.
Again far from ideal form analysis and ideally first matches should be watched. It is up to you whether you are convinced by head to heads and last year's form. Quite clear though, like Copenhagen, Zilina are a dominant team in their league. 8 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses at home last year.
1 win, 7 draws and 9 losses away for Kosice signals best case for them is a draw?

210 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Apollo, 9/4 Newbury Hall, 4/1 Qatar´s Pearl, 5/1 Strait Of Zanzibar, 10/1 Hit The Jackpot, 25/1 Kashmir Peak, 100/1 Shabra Emperor.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market will prove informative with Apollo, who is beautifully-bred and entered in the Derby, but he will have to know his job on debut to get the better of NEWBURY HALL who created a good impression when second to a stalemate of Apollo's first time out and looks just the type to improve with racing. [David Jennings]

5 horses remain, 3 under 20/1 and 2 under 10/1. One is a debutant Apollo with an eyecatching Ryan Moore onboard. A debutant alas. Default therefore to the experience of Newbury Hall? A 2 year old with only 1 run and now on yielding ground today.

240 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Zip Top, 5/2 After, 5/1 Fire Lily, 8/1 Fulbright, 10/1 Boris Grigoriev, 14/1 Ishvana, 16/1 Lady Rochford, 66/1 Cheerful Giver.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The form of ZIP TOP'S Leopardstown maiden win has been franked by the runner-up and given the lofty esteem in which he is held, it would be disappointing if the son of Smart Strike cannot confirm the promise of that run here. Fire Lily, who should appreciate the step up to this trip, looks the pick of the opposition. [David Jennings]

7 runners now - the hope for 3 places still - 4 under 14/1 and Fire Lily now 7/4 favourite and a strong mover. Ziptop 2nd fav.

345 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Wonder Of Wonders, 4/1 Blue Bunting, 4/1 Dancing Rain, 8/1 Banimpire, 12/1 Laughing Lashes, 33/1 Rumh, 66/1 Amazing Beauty, 100/1 Gemstone, 100/1 Hurricane Havoc.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A cracking contest in store with the first, second and fourth from Epsom all renewing rivalry and the Ribblesdale winner adding further spice to the dish. Wonder Of Wonders has been all the rage to reverse Investec Oaks form with Dancing Rain and while she may be able to do so, BLUE BUNTING could improve past them both in the hope that this track will be more to her liking than Epsom was. [David Jennings]

This Irish Oaks field can be reduced considerably to the 5 horses under 50/1 who should fight out the 3 places. The market has WOnder of Wonders clear fav at around evens/5/4 with Blue Bunting and Dancing Rain both 4/1

Ryan Moore represents Ballydoyle on Wonder of Wonders and he is one of the most reliable jockeys punters want to see on their fancies.

If the horse is good enough, then Ryan Moore will ensure he runs to his optimum.

215 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Carter, 5/2 Call To Arms, 5/2 Peadar Miguel, 16/1 Tuscan King, 20/1 La Belle Au Bois, 33/1 Mountain Forest, 50/1 Pitton Flight, 50/1 Poor Prince, 66/1 Christophers Quest.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARTER (nap) looks a useful tool for early-season novice hurdles and is preferred to Peadar Miguel and Call To Arms.[Paul Johnson]

3 under 20/1 here and Carter 8/13

SHORTLIST

At least there are some reasonable horse races today. Yesterday was a mire.
1pm - FC Istra v Spartak Moscow - 1.16 away - the layers are out in force as this is Russian Cup tie with the fancies away from home. I, though, like the gulf in leagues and in an ideal world, this is a 3+ goal win for the away side.

3pm - SonderjyskE v FC Copenhagen - 1.5 away - 1.3 over 1.5 goals is a nice price ( suspiciously big some would argue)- dominant side last year playing home side who lost 8 of 12 matches home and away v top 6 ( Copenhagen run away league winners last year)

210 CURRAGH - 2 under 10/1 - what impact will this yielding ground have on young horses? Newbury Hall is a one time out 2 year old , running promisingly on debut against a stablemate of Apollo's. 1.2 to effectively beat 2 to place ( suggest this is a 3 horse race with 3 under 20/1) - yielding/v soft ground suggest Newbury Hall will have no concerns with the ground.
The superb Pat Smullen is on the potential fly in the ointment, 10/1 Hit the Jackpot, who could be a likely each way contender if Apollo, on debut, finds it all too much.

240 CURRAGH - 7 runners - 3 places - 4 under 16/1 - an ideal place only race. The 4 under 16/1 are solid horses, one from Mark Johnston's stable has Dettori no less onboard, and the other, After, is a Ballydoyle horse with Ryan Moore onboard. As this is a Group 3, none can be comfortably dismissed. Faith in the hotties? 15/8 Fire Lily and 9/4 Zip Top ? I would follow the market move on Fire Lily here if pressed. 1.3 to place

345 CURRAGH - 5 under 50/1 to fight it out. Wonder of Wonders was expected to be odds on but is odds against. Ryan Moore on a solid favourite should instill an element of confidence. 1.24 to place with next best 1.8.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1pm - FC Istra v Spartak Moscow - 1.16 away - risks are clear, Russian Cup, and favs away, but should be an easy assignment for a fully tuned up Spartak Moscow.

3pm - SonderjyskE v FC Copenhagen - 1.5 away - 1.3 over 1.5 goals is very tempting here given historical head to heads. 11 of Copenhagen's 16 matches away last year were over 2.5 goals ( others were 1-1 etc) and their first 8 away matches last year were all over 2.5 goals) 31 out of 33 matches last year were over 1.5 goals so I suggest it would be extremely bad luck were we to get a 0-0, 1-0, 0-1.

210 CURRAGH - Newbury Hall looks the default pick here to place ( has experience, albeit a single run, and on today's ground) against Apollo - a debutant who could falter or run like a star - we don't know.
These are 2 year olds , one time outers or debutants, but I would much prefer to back a one time outer than a debutant. And with 3 under 20/1 this is another probability race with an attractive enough 1.23 for the fav.

345 CURRAGH - Wonder of Wonders the other race of interest - Wonder of Wonders is one of those "talking horses", and has Ryan Moore onboard ( you would not wish for another flat jockey on your horse) so he is very tempting. Blue Bunting may be the each way play here as he may be more suited to this than Epsom.







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