THe lateness of the message is a sign of a niggly day. It's a choice between the following
1) Ekranas - markets too illiquid so I would have to shelve this - I wanted to back Ekranas with a 0-0 cover
2) 8pm - Brazil v Venezuela - 1.19 Brazil - Brazil have a great defence and I would back them with a 0-0 cover just incase they have trouble scoring against Venezuela. Copa America the concern as was seen with Argies 1-1 v Bolivia
3) 230pm - Nadal v Djokovic - lay Djokovic 3-0 set betting at 9 is a 1.11 bet ( your stake becomes your fixed liability) -Nadal only has to win 1 set for this to come in.
4) 250 BELLEWSTOWN - 4 under 25/1 but an Irish maiden. Oh what a kitten would be my choice under Pat Smullen
5) 300 MARKET RASEN - Oasis Knight has 2 other rivals for 2 places so probability wise this is a great race, but is a hurdles race and I don't like putting my hopes on horses having to complete as well as place.
******ONE A DAY 230pm - NADAL V DJOKOVIC - go to SET BETTING. LAY DJOKOVIC 3-0 SET BETTING AT ODDS OF 9 - follow the video at
And watch out for USA Women. Yes I know I promised to stay away but they look like they can actually string more than one pass together and shoot from nearer than 45 yards. No wonder they were the only side to beat the Germans .
3pm - Lunds BK v Motala - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 13th of 14
HOME TEAM LUNDS
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLDW - wins against 7th, 9th and 14th. Loss v 6th was a 1-0, and draw was 1-1 v 4th ( and 89th minute equaliser stops Lunds from winning)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWDLWDWWL - losses against 10th and 6th were both 1-0, draws were against 8th, 3rd and 4th , 1-1, 2-2, 1-1 - last 2 draws saw Lunds in winning positions and drop points thanks to 87th and 89th minute equalisers.
GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, 3 clean sheets. 1.4 scored, 0.4 conceded at home - low scoring averages but to be fair only 5 matches to choose from.
STREAKS - 2 at home without a loss.
AWAY TEAM - MOTALA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLL - but going back to the last time they were in this league in 2009 it's LLLLLDLLL then 2011 LLLL - just a poor away side? Losses against 7th, 9th, 6th and 4th and playing 2nd today so should struggle.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLLLLDLD - win was an 81st minute winner against 8th in the league. Draws recently a sign of improvement? 2-2 v 11th and 1-1 v top side - both draws at home. The 2-2 saw Motala 2-0 up and draw to a 94th and 95th minute goal against 10 men!! The 1-1 draw against top side saw Motala get a man sent off, then take the lead. Remember these were at home, and historically Motala are poor travellers.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 away losses, no clean sheets, 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded on average.
STREAKS - 8 without a win.4 away without a win, 6 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - good recent performances for Motala have come at home. Away historically they are really poor and lose , with best result a draw. Lunds losses have both been 1-0's, but they should be too strong for 2nd bottom? The percentage call is the home win. No head to heads and only 10 games to work on means there are no really strong stats.
5pm - Ekranas v Kruoja - 1.2 home
HEAD TO HEADS
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWDDWWWWWWWW - yet again we have 1-0's which slightly take the edge off impressive form - 6 1-0's in their last 8 matches Prior to those results was a 1-1 and 0-0 draw
| 23.04.2011 | D1 | Kruoja Pakruojis | 0-4 | FK Ekranas | |
| 26.09.2010 | D1 | FK Ekranas | 3-2 | Kruoja Pakruojis | |
| 23.06.2010 | D1 | Kruoja Pakruojis | 0-2 | FK Ekranas | |
| 10.04.2010 | D1 | FK Ekranas | 4-1 | Kruoja Pakruojis | |
| 13.09.2009 | D1 | Kruoja Pakruojis | 2-2 | FK Ekranas | |
| 26.07.2009 | D1 | FK Ekranas | 3-0 | Kruoja Pakruojis |
Ekranas fairly dominant here and over 2.5 goals has a real chance of success.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 6th
HOME TEAM - RECENT HOME FORM - EKRANAS - -WDDWWWWW - 3 1-0 wins against 2nd, 5th and 9th. - all 3 goals in the 2nd half from 70th minute onwards.
GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 2 draws - 6 clean sheets.2.63 scored on average, 0.38 conceded at home, - far too many 1-0 scorelines - glass half full? = good defence. Glass half empty = an attacking force lacking in that killer instinct. 1-0 and largely late goals.
STREAKS - 12 without a loss, 7 match winning streak at home, 7 without a draw overall
AWAY TEAM - KRUOJA
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDWWL - decent enough away form. Wins against 7th, 2nd ,8th, 4th - gap in points between Ekranas and 2nd is 6 points, and 4th is 15 points. Perhaps Ekranas are a step up? 2 draws were 0-0 against 6th and 9th. Loss was 1-0 v 3rd.
RECENT OVERALL FORM -
| Sat | 12/03/11 | AL | Banga | 1 - 2 | Kruoja | View events | More info |
| Sun | 20/03/11 | AL | Kruoja | 1 - 2 | Šiauliai | View events | More info |
| Sat | 02/04/11 | AL | Tauras | 0 - 0 | Kruoja | More info | |
| Sun | 10/04/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 1 | Žalgiris | View events | More info |
| Sat | 16/04/11 | AL | Sūduva | 1 - 2 | Kruoja | View events | More info |
| Sat | 23/04/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 4 | Ekranas | View events | More info |
| Sun | 01/05/11 | AL | Dainava | 0 - 0 | Kruoja | More info | |
| Sun | 08/05/11 | AL | Kruoja | 2 - 0 | Kaunas | View events | More info |
| Wed | 11/05/11 | AL | Mažeikiai | 0 - 2 | Kruoja | View events | More info |
| Wed | 18/05/11 | AL | Kruoja | 2 - 0 | Klaipėda | View events | More info |
| Sat | 21/05/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 0 | Atlantas | More info | |
| Fri | 27/05/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 0 | Banga | More info | |
| Sat | 11/06/11 | AL | Šiauliai | 0 - 4 | Kruoja | View events | More info |
| Sun | 19/06/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 1 | Žalgiris | View events | More info |
| Sun | 26/06/11 | AL | Kruoja | 0 - 1 | Sūduva | View events | More info |
| Wed | 29/06/11 | AL | Kruoja | 1 - 1 | Tauras | View events |
Now remembering that Ekranas have had 6 1-0 scorelines in their last 8 matches, look at Kruoja's recent scorelines ( minus the anomolous 4-0)
GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets away 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded away on average.
STREAKS - 3 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - HEad to heads point to a comfortable afternoon for Ekranas. REcent Ekranas scorelines ( 6 of last 8 matches have been 1-0) points to an unnerving afternoon and the hope of a lateish goal to seal another 1-0. This is exacerbated by Kruoja's recent scorelines -2 0-0's, 2 1-0;s and a 1-1 ( with an anomolous 4-0) in their last 6 matches.
Back 0-0 initially perhaps a tradable way to go in the hope this replicates recent matches and the goal appears in the 2nd half. Lay Ekranas at 1.2 ( although you may not get much movement at 0-0 as they are playing at home) or do we go with head to heads and expect a goal laden match ( 1.2 odds hint at such)
Which Ekranas will turn up today?
5pm - Rosenborg v Sarpsborg - 1.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS - none suggests that Sarpsborg are newcomers to the top flight
LEAGUE POSITION -- 11th v 13th - but a false placing for Rosenborg as they have 2 games in hand, which if they win, could put them 6th ( with 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th on 23 points and them a likely 22 points)
HOME TEAM - ROSENBORG
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWLW - losses against 7th and 10th, draw against 8th was 4-4!!, and wins against 2nd and 9th The 4-4 draw saw Lillestrom score a 94th minute equaliser! Gutting!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWWLDDWWD - bad start to the season corrected somewhat with a single loss in the next 8 matches. 3 draws against 15th, 12th and 14th , 2 score draws ( 3-3 and 4-4) and the wins were 2-0, 0-2, 1-3, 3-1 against 9th, 1st, 5th and 2nd. Beating the top 2 a good sign surely?
GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals. 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 9 of 12 matches this season
STREAKS - 3 without a draw, 5 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - SARPSBORG
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDDLD - draws against 2nd, 6th and 14th saw 2 2-2's and a 1-1 - losses against 3rd, 9th, 10th and 12th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLWLDWLDDLLD - no win in last 6 matches just as Rosenborg are on an unbeaten sequence. Losses away to 9th, 10th and 12th and playing 11th today ( although 2 matches in hand over rest of the league so Rosenborg in a false position)
GOAL TRENDS - 57% over 2.5 goals - have conceded in all away matches this season.Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but previous to that a 2-2 draw, 2-0 win, 2-4 loss, 2 1-1's and a 2-0, so so near to over 2.5 goals in some matches. Have conceded in 8 of last 9 matches.
STREAKS - 7 away without a win, 6 overall without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Rosenborg are in a false position having played 2 games less than the rest of the league and bearing that in mind ( currently 11th) Sarpsborg have lost to 9th ,10th and 12th away. Rosenborg are on an unbeaten run at the moment of 5 matches and Sarpsborg are on a 6 match run without a win, and have not won 7 away. Worse case for Rosenborg today I suspect would be a score draw.
If Rosenborg with their 2 in hand they will be 6th with 2nd ,3rd,4th,5th 1 point above) . Expectation therefore for a win. Both teams' goal averages are over 50% hinting at least at over 1.5 goals?
8pm -
| 15.10.2009 | WCQL | Brazil | 0-0 | Venezuela | |
| 12.10.2008 | WCQL | Venezuela | 0-4 | Brazil | |
| 07.06.2008 | FRL | Brazil | 0-2 | Venezuela |
Brazil v Venezuela - 1.19 home. Well the Argies fecked it up, surely the Brazilians won't? HEad to heads are not as recent as I would like. Both teams have played mostly friendlies recently and quite simply I cannot get an angle in through solely friendlies. THe squad at their disposal should ensure Brazil win, but then I said the same about the Argies.
WIMBLEDON MEN'S
 | Nadal v Djokovic - now I would be looking at laying 3-0 sets here? 3-0 Nadal is 5.6 which , if layed to £100 fixed liability , is the equivalent of a 1.20 bet. Surely the new World Number 1 Djokovic will not get turned over 3-0? 250 BELLEWSTOWN |
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Oh What A Kitten, 9/4 Edenshaw, 5/1 Jouster, 20/1 Shisha Threesixty, 25/1 Ayanna, 25/1 Tamujin, 33/1 Shellin Star, 50/1 In High Esteem, 50/1 Mary Mac, 50/1 Zero Euro.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This can safely be narrowed down to three contenders and with Edenshaw being far from certain to be suited by the ground, JOUSTER appeals as likely to be a better value proposition than Oh What A Kitten. [Kevin Blake]
Oh what a kitten is a non runner and there are now 2 under 10/1 and 3 under 20/1 so surely Edenshaw can replace Kitten as the likeliest place only candidate in this 3 year old maiden?
425 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Strain Of Fame, 5/1 Green To Gold, 6/1 Cinderella Story, 8/1 Rural Retreat, 10/1 Horsewithnoname, 14/1 My Fairytale, 14/1 Simply Ravishing, 16/1 Cash Or Casualty, 16/1 Midnight Show, 20/1 Snow Feather, 25/1 Denis Of Kerry, 25/1 Diocese, 25/1 Nama Express, 25/1 Solomons Secret.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Strain Of Fame has improved over hurdles since last seen on the Flat and is clearly the one to beat, but one that makes slightly more appeal considering she is likely to be a much bigger price is the unexposed SIMPLY RAVISHING. [Kevin Blake]
6/4 - - - - 5/1 and Pat Smullen onboard makes Strain of Fame of some interest. I do not like Irish handicaps though.
525 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tom Horn, 7/4 Inspector Clouseau, 5/1 Priors Gold, 14/1 Hans Crescent, 14/1 Sorted, 20/1 Ross Limestone, 25/1 Eimears Oscar, 66/1 The Brugh Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks fairly straightforward for TOM HORN, whose rider Paul Carberry can expose the stamina doubts of his main rival and make all again, even though the trip is slightly short for Noel Meade's improver. The quirky Priors Gold might edge Inspector Closeau for second. [Johnny Ward]
Perfect race - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 20/1 and 2 likely contenders in Tom and Inspector.
235 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Jumbo Rio, 5/1 Takeyourcapoff, 8/1 Salford City, 12/1 Jubilant Note, 16/1 Like The Da, 100/1 Slaney Time.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks straightforward for JUMBO RIO. The Gordon Elliott-trained pair may need this, and perhapsTakeyourcapoff will prove a better forecast option. [Alan Sweetman]
1/3 - - - -5/1 price gapper in a hurdle - has to complete of course! 4 under 25/1 for 2 places
300 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Oasis Knight, 7/2 Tower, 6/1 Jackstown, 33/1 Exit To Freedom, 33/1 Toby Mac.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OASIS KNIGHT has his quirks and was turned over at odds-on last time but he should be capable of winning this uncompetitive affair if consenting to put it all in with the headgear removed. The Chris Grant-trained pair Tower andJackstown appear to be his only realistic dangers.[Steve Boow]
3 under 50/1 for 2 places and again a jumps race means they all have to complete.
530 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Western Approaches, 9/4 Forever My Friend, 6/1 Broughtons Classic, 10/1 Tango In The Night, 14/1 Captains Measure, 14/1 Snow Alert, 25/1 Consigliori, 33/1 Lieutenant Dan, 33/1 Lulu´s Gift, 66/1 Billy Teal, 66/1 Tata Corner.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong bumper. Previous winner Western Approaches should go well, as should reliable yardstickForever My Friend. However neither is bombproof in this grade and preference is for newcomer BROUGHTONS CLASSIC, who is out of a prolific Flat winner and won't have to be anything special to figure here. [Richard Young]
4 under 16/1 in this bumper - default to the favourite to place - Western Approached with Forever my friend very close.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Lunds BK v Motala - 1.33 home - Swedish D3S league and 2nd v 13th, and away side returning to this league. Percentage call is to back home side as away side historically are bad travellers - 12 losses in last 13 away matches - and current losses against 4th, 6th, 7th 9th ( playing 2nd today) - I have been enjoying my forays into these leagues so far and have not got any wrong as yet. Not much money in the Betfair markets but available with bookies5pm - Ekranas v Kruoja - 1.2 home - Ekranas should win comfortably as they have been in head to heads historically, but 6 1-0's in their last 8 wins is worrisome. As above - illiquid betfair market.
5pm - Rosenborg v Sarpsborg - 1.32 home - 11th only because they have played 2 matches less, Rosenborg are on a 5 match unbeaten streak while Sarpsborg have not won in 6, and 7 away. Rosenborg win their 2 in hand and they are 6th, only a point behind 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th which I suspect is a better reflection on them.
8pm - Brazil v Venezuela - 1.19 home. - is this Copa America just not a good betting medium ( as seen by the Argies inability to beat Bolivia 2 nights ago?) Surely the Brazilians have too much?
230pm - NADAL V DJOKOVIC - 3-0 to Nadal might be worth laying - it is now 5.3 and has been backed as I have been writing. LAying at 5.3 for a fixed liability ( where liability is your usual stake as a backer) is about a 1.22 bet and over 5 sets for the new World Number 1, it has a chance. This match is likely to feature a few 7-5, 7-5 scorelines and if Djoko can take just one set, the bet is in. An even safer bet of course would be to lay Djokovic to win 3-0 at 9 which is a 1.11 bet
250 BELLEWSTOWN - 4 under 25/1 and Oh What a kitten is apparently running ( signalled as a non runner earlier!) Smullen on board and 1.2 to place in this 3 year old maiden.
525 BELLEWSTOWN - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 16/1 and 5 under 33/1 - can Tom Horn place at least on search for hatrick under Paul Carberry?
235 LIMERICK - GOlden rio is 1/3 to win and 1.08 to place and a clear round as ever should suffice.
300 MARKET RASEn - ideal probability race - 3 under 50/1 and Oasis Knight 2/5 - another hurdles race needs the horse to complete to place. 1.09 to place and perhaps ideal accompaniment for a 3-0 lay of Djokovic in the set betting?
530 MARKET RASEN - 4 under 16/1 currently and Western Approaches to place? Abumper so no obstacles bar the horse's ability
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
5pm - Ekranas v Kruoja - 1.2 home - head to heads point to a 2/3 goal win ( as does the market) but 6 1-0's in last 8 wins means I would look to back 0-0 insurance bet. 1.16 with Ladbrokes and no liquidity issues. No correct score market at Laddies though. At www.bet365.com Ekranas are 1.20 and 0-0 is 21 .
Back Ekranas at 1.2 for £100 and back 0-0 at 21 for £5 results in a 1.15 bet ( if Ekranas win)
8pm - Brazil v Venezuela - 1.19 Brazil - surely they can step up here. A solid defence could ensure a clean sheet, so my only concern would be Brazil scoring, this could be covered with a 0-0 insurance bet. Back BRazil at 1.19 and back 0-0 odds 25 for £4.40 ( if backing Brazil in match odds for £100
230pm - NADAL V DJOKOVIC - surely Nadal will in at least one set this afternoon? Therefore laying Djokovic Set Betting 3-0 at 9 is a goer? The equivalent of a 1.12 bet ( well 1.1195) it only takes Nadal to win one set and the bet is in. Over 5 sets, surely the conqueror of Murray can manage that?
250 BELLEWSTOWN - 4 under 25/1 for 3 places. Oh what a kitten under Pat Smullen must have a great place only chance? 1.19 to place
525 BELLEWSTOWN - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 16/1 - you know how good these races are for place only betting. Tom Horn would appeal as the fav but I have put my faith in hurdles races and the last 2 have produced losing bets thanks to errant jumping and falling. 1.19 Tom Horn
300 MARKET RASEN - 3 under 50/1 is the best probability race amongst the shorties in the jumps venues. 1.09 to place and of course a clear round required.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment