HEAD TO HEADS
| 08.05.2011 | D1 | Olimps/RFS | 2-2 | FC Jurmala | |
| 28.04.2010 | Cup | Olimps/RFS | 1-3 | FC Jurmala |
Plenty of goals here a good starting point.
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 9th might signal a tight match but 13 points v 2 points after 14 matches signals poor side v poorer side.
HOME TEAM - JURMALA
RECENT HOME FORM - DLLWLLL - Jurmala are newly promoted. Draw against 5th was a 1-1, win was against 6th and 4-1 seeing Jurmala score 2 penalties so a flattering scoreline.Losses against all of to 4 and 8th. Tight loss 1-0 to top side .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWDLWLDLLD - wins against 4th, 5th and 6th , draws against 9th( bottom) , 2nd and 6th. The 2-2 draw v today's opponents saw Jurmala 2-0 down.
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 1 draw and 5 losses at home, no clean sheets at home, scoring 1.43 and conceding 3.14 at home on average.
STREAKS - 5 overall without a win, 3 at home. 6 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - OLIMPS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLL - conceding 2,4,2,5,4,4,2 playing and losing against 7 teams in a 9 team league.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDDLLLLLLL - draws against 7th and 8th -the 2 Jurmala sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 7 losses away, 0.57 conceded and 3.29 scored.
STREAKS - 17 without a win.8 away losses on the trot, 9 away matches without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks like a promoted side struggling playing a really poor bottom league side.
Note - this is a league of only 9 teams so stats will not be that accurate. Over 2.5 goals covers the potential score draw that occured last time these 2 met ( look at Olimps's average concession rate away and conceding of 2,4,2,5,4,4,2 against 7 of the 9 teams in this league away)
Jurmula are poor,, scoring 1.43 and conceding 3.14 on average at home. Highly unlikely they can concede 3 against a poor Olimps. 6 at home without a draw plays 9 away without a draw - lay the draw - or can we logically argue that if a draw is unlikely, and an Olimps win is unlikely, should we not simply just default to Jurmala?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 06.03.2011 | LC | UMF Grindavik | 1-2 | FH Hafnarfjordur | |
| 19.08.2010 | D1 | UMF Grindavik | 3-1 | FH Hafnarfjordur | |
| 31.05.2010 | D1 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 2-1 | UMF Grindavik | |
| 22.08.2009 | D1 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-3 | UMF Grindavik | |
| 14.06.2009 | D1 | UMF Grindavik | 0-3 | FH Hafnarfjordur |
Goals in these head these head to heads and h2h nearly shared between sides. No draws.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 10th after 8 matches.
HOME TEAM - HAF
RECENT HOME FORM - WDW in the league - they have played Cup matches too.Wins against 6th and 7th 4-1 and 3-0
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDDWLDW - - losses against 1st and 2nd, draws against 8th, 9th and 11th all score draws and wins against 6th, 7th and 12th
GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet - 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded on average. Remember though this is only 3 matches.
STREAKS - 7 home matches without a loss.
AWAY TEAM - GRINDAVIK
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLDL - win against 4th was 3-2, saw Grind 2-0 down and score a 94th minute winner.Losses against 6th and 7th, one match saw Grind 1-0 up but get a red card and lose 2-1 so we will never know how big an impact that red card had and whether we can count the 2-1 loss as an accurate reflection of a scoreline against this kind of team in the league.( remember they are playing 5th today so scorelines v 6th and 7th are important)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLLDWLL - wins v 4th and 9th and losses v 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 2 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet - 1.25 scored, 1.5 conceded on average away, but remember this is only 4 matches.
STREAKS - 2 away without a win. Strongest streak is home - 8 without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 8 matches played and conflicting stats. Haf are playing 10th today and have score drawn against 8th, 9th and 11th - coincidence? Note, though, that they have score drawn which may open up goals trading? Grindavik have lost against 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th and are playing 5th today so that is a positive for Haf.
Head to heads point to possibility of over 2.5 goals and both sides scoring. Haf have only lost against 1st and 2nd so draw worse case today? Grind's sole win was 3-2 v 4th in the league, BUT they were 2-0 down.
Looks like a neutral goals bet may be the call here. I cannot see Haf losing, but I must add a caveat that accuracy in conclusions is severely affected by dealing with only 8 matches. Some teams are slow starters?
| Medina Garrigues v Tsurenko - 1.14 Medina - 43rd v 129th in the world and 6-2, 6-3 in single head to head for Medina in 2010 4pm - |
| Wozniacki v Arvidsson - 1.09 - she did the job yesterday in 2 straight sets.1st v 73rd ( beat 69th yesterday( and 4-1 in head to heads including the last 4 matches in 2007,8,9,10) 240 BATH |
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hidden Passion, 3/1 Thirsty Bear, 7/1 Blanc De Chine, 10/1 Emerald Smile, 14/1 Mae Rose Cottage, 16/1 Doctor Banner, 16/1 Royal Trix, 20/1 Mister Musicmaster, 100/1 Jawim.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop to the minimum trip should not inconvenience HIDDEN PASSION who sets a clear standard. Thirsty Bear made an encouraging debut at Newmarket and looks the one to beat.[Adrian Cook]
2 year old maiden and Hidden Passion last ran in a class 1 , this is a class 5. 2 under 10/1 with Hidden Passion at 4/7 - - - - -- 4/1 - - - - -- 10/1 . Drop to 5 furlongs " should not inconvenience" 3 debutants ( could be anything) and 2 one time outers ( including 2nd fav open to any end of improvement) the niggles in this 5 furlong 2 year old maiden.
220 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 The Dancing Lord, 5/1 Justine Time, 5/1 Lady Caprice, 7/1 Cooldine Cat, 10/1 Lady Jourdain, 20/1 Come On Dave, 20/1 Maria Anna, 33/1 Low Pastures, 33/1 Only Orsenfoolsies, 33/1 Sonko, 66/1 Ruskins View.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: First-time headgear on Lady Caprice, Justine Time and Cooldine Cat could bring about a bit of improvement but this looks a good opportunity for THE DANCING LORD to notch his third win.[Richard Young]
8/11 - - - -- 7/1 price gapper in this claimer is very eyecatching.
Negatives? A 2 year old claimer.
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 King Ferdinand, 7/1 Firstknight, 8/1 Dream Catcher, 8/1 Lord Of The Reins, 10/1 Night Trade, 10/1 Quasi Congaree, 12/1 Squires Gate, 12/1 Zip Lock, 16/1 Desert Strike, 16/1 Dominium, 16/1 Safari Mischief, 20/1Great Acclaim.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dream Catcher and Lord Of The Reins are both interesting starting out for a new stable, butKING FERDINAND (nap) is still unexposed over sprint trips and looked well ahead of his mark when winning over C&D last week.[Paul Smith]
Another great price gapper. 5/4 - - - - 7/1 in the live betting ( do note the race time though) A class 4 0-80 handicap this one, we need to check the market nearer the off to avoid getting caught out by market movers not lurking some 8 hours previous.
300 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Viewing, 15/8 Fly By White, 9/4 Country Road, 20/1 Battle Axe, 20/1 Insidious, 33/1 Milton Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VIEWING comes with risks but so do her market rivals Country Road and Fly By White, who ruined their chances by pulling way too hard last time. Needless to say, this is a race in which to tread very carefully.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 horse race for 2 places? Although Insidious is 12/1 now - possible each way thievery?
330 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Undulant Way, 13/8 Amistress, 12/1 Melancholy Hill, 12/1 Phase Shift.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is obviously the chance of a very messy race, given only four runners, but it looks betweenUNDULANT WAY (nap) and Amistress, with Amanda Perrett's Windsor winner looking the more open to improvement.[Richard Austen]
Will this race be dominated by the 2 under 14/1 for the 2 places?
610 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Geneva Geyser, 15/8 Carabinier, 7/1 Another Kate, 7/1 Mercury Bay, 25/1 Grindy, 25/1Mezarat, 33/1 Comrade Bob, 50/1 Failed The Test, 100/1 Trepalo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Carabinier looks good enough to defy a penalty but GENEVA GEYSER created a good impression on his hurdles debut and his form has more substance to it.[Chris Wilson]
9 runners, 3 places and 4 only under 20/1 - remember time of race though and the fact this is a novices hurdle
810 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Spice Bar, 13/2 Apache Dawn, 8/1 Cardinal James, 8/1 Louis Ludwig, 17/2 Woodlark Island, 9/1 General Eliott, 10/1 Master Performer, 12/1 Midnite Blews, 14/1 Tram Express, 25/1 Massams Lane, 40/1Knightsbridgelives.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPICE BAR (nap) has proved a revelation for his current yard and made it three wins from his last four runs when scoring in very smooth style at Uttoxeter last time. He should be hard to beat under a penalty and can see off main dangers Apache Dawn and Woodlark Island. [David Moon]
Price gapper , albeit a handicap multiple winner, and especially over hurdles these horses' winning runs will end eventually. McCoy up tonight may offer a false price? 5/4 - - -- 8/1 price gapper currently in a day of price gaps.
840 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Black Jack Blues, 5/1 Rio Gael, 7/1 Cool Touch, 7/1 Just Victor, 25/1 Street Devil, 100/1Cloonavery, 100/1 Simiola.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACK JACK BLUES was a classy hurdler and, although he's not very big, proved he can act over fences when making a winning debut in this sphere last time. He should be able to defy his penalty.[Chris Wilson]
4 under 33/1 should ensure 4 horses for 2 places. Novices chase though a risky betting medium. 1/3 now this favourite and again McCoy up.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Equatorial Guinea (W) v Brazil (W) - 1.08 - now up to 1.09 and backable surely in the match odds? Collateral form points to an easy win for Brazil - eventually I would suspect as Guinea are likely to be fit. 1.12 over 1.5 goals and 1.39 over 2.5 goals may rely on the Brazilians.WARNING - BRAZIL ARE SAFELY THROUGH which brings the following maxim into play - teams that do not need to win rarely do win.So make up your mind and watch for team changes for the Brazilians.
630pm - Valletta v Tre Fiori - 1.1 home - again we have the Brazil dilemma - Valletta can afford to lose 2-0 or 3-1 and still go through to the next stage of the Champions League. They do not really need to win. The 1.1, like in the Brazil match, signals they are expected to win by 2,3
145am - Argentina v Colombia - 1.38 home - here's another maxim - must wins generally do tend to win. The pressure is telling for this multi talented Argy team in a tournament which the bookies simply love - 1-1 v Bolivia , Brazil drawing 0-0 all help swell the coffers. Can we trust them against Columbia?
4pm -Wozniacki v Arvidsson - 1.09 - playing 73rd today and she beat 69th easily yesterday, We could enhance another short priced bet
as I should have done yesterday.
It's price gapper day today. WHere were they yesterday when I needed them!!!
240 BATH - do we trust a 2 year old maiden, and not just any old 2 year old maiden, this is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden - YIKES! Hidden
passion has had the 3 runs and is one of 4 under 20/1 -probability chance enhanced if the betting market is accurate. 1.1 to place is giving
nothing away.
220 CATTERICK - another 2 year old race over 5 furlongs, this time a 2 year old claimer but this is a whopping price gapper 8/11 - - - - 7/1
and I would deem it a shock were a price gapper this big not to place in the first 3 at least. Illiquid betting market and around 1.14 to place.
720 KEMPTON - another whopping price gapper here in King Ferdinand - around 1.3 to place 11/10 - - - - 7/1 - of course it is folly to make
a decision so early with a 720pm race time.
330 LINGFIELD - again faith in the market - 2 under 14/1 here - can we trust them to dominate? Undulant way is 1.1 to place and looks
obvious starting point. 50/50 race
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
5pm - Equatorial Guinea (W) v Brazil (W) - 1.08 - only a draw required for the Brazilians to go top, and I acknowledge the maxim that teams who do not need to win rarely do win. 1.09 for the Brazilians who have not conceded yet. Will they change the team around and rest a few? On any other occasion this would be an easy win for a motivated Brazilian side.
COLLECTOR SWEDISH TENNIS - 4pm -Wozniacki v Arvidsson - 1.09 - another 2-0 looks on the cards. Woz beat 69th ranked yesterday in straight sets.
240 BATH - 3 under 16/1 - can we trust a 2 year old in a 5 furlong maiden? Hidden passion 1.1 to place here .Ran in a listed race last
time out and now back down to class 5.
220 CATTERICK - acknowledging this is a 2 year old claimer, there's no getting away from the price gap here - 8/11 - - - - 7/1 and around
1.13 to place.
330 LINGFIELD - best probability race of the day. 4 horses , 2 places, 2 horses under 14/1 and Undulant Way a winner last time out.
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