The football gods are dangling some nice ( relatively speaking) odds for Leverkusen infront of me but I must acknowledge it is a friendly. Rangers are 1.24 on Betfair and 1.14 with Ladbrokes. Value at Betfair but a price which might relay the fact this is a friendly and this is Rangers.
Elsewhere there are some rock solid football teams but they lack motivation , but there are 2 whose 2nd leg Europa tie is still important, and they are Hacken and Paks. I think a Betfair Multiple on them is the way to go today.
Alternatively Esentepe at Epsom in the 650 is a strongbet to place.
*****ONE A DAY - today's one a day will be a double backing Hacken and Paks . Please see the accompanying video
as regards placing a Betfair Multiple and scroll down to the bottom of the message for a view on how the multiple should look. I feel both sides' 2nd leg ties are still alive, they are both at home, and face weaker footballing league sides.
Esentepe I cannot let go in the 650 Epsom as the horse looks very strong for a place, but I cannot comment so early incase there are the proverbial dark horses or drifters.
One of the 2 2 year olds yesterday failed to place in their 5 furlong race, which helped prove my reluctance to get involved correct. 0-0 half time for the Brazilian ladies and 1-0 down for Valleta allowed profitable trades if you followed the maxim" teams that don't need to win rarely do" - yes Brazil scored 3 2nd half goals and Valleta eventually won 2-1, but the lack of bite was apparent. And the poor Argies are struggling under this new manager. THat can be the only reason for 1 goal scored in 2 matches with Messi, Higuan, Aguero et al.
HEAD TO HEADS
Tight head to heads here and only one for the "new" Hougang.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 6th - 19 matches played v 17 matches played so be careful - Hougang are in a "false" position in the league. 37 points v 28.
HOME TEAM - ALBIREX
RECENT HOME FORM - WLLWDWWWWW- losses v 5th and 2nd and draw v 8th ( 0-0). 5 wins on the trot v 3rd, 12th, 1st, 10th, 9th.6,5,2,4,1 scored.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWLWWWLWW - good form overall. 3 losses v 6th, 2nd and 7th ( 6th is today's opponents and that was a 1-0 home win for Hougang with an 84th minute Hougang winner after Albirex missed an earlier penalty - so I would not take this result as any sign of Hougang having the upper hand - looks a v lucky win)
GOAL TRENDS - 7 wins, 2 losses, 1draw - 4 clean sheets. 2.6 scored and 1 conceded at home. 4 of last 5 matches at home over 2.5 goals. Overall ( where O is over 2.5 goals and U is unders) OOOOOOUUO - the unders recently both 1-0s and against 7th and 9th
STREAKS - 11 overall without a draw, 6 match home winning run, 8 at home without a loss.
AWAY TEAM - HOUGANG
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWWWLW - again no draw here! Remember Albirex 11 overall without a draw. Losses here v 2nd, 5th and 7th and most recently 4-2 loss v Home United ( top of the league).Wins away against 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th -hardly compelling evidence regarding beating 4th today.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWWWLWLWW - again a sparcity of draws. - losses v 3rd, 1st, and 7th and wins v 8th, 4th, 11th, 12th, 2nd, 9th, 8th.
GOAL TRENDS - 7 of last 8 away matches over 2.5 goals. 5 of last 7 matches overall over 2.5 goals ( the other 2 were 2-0's and both successful over 2.5 goals trades)
STREAKS - 4 wins, 4 losses, no draws away - 2 clean sheets - 2.63 scored, 2 26 conceded
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -head to heads extremely tight 4 1-0's and a 1-1 recently conflicts with recent goal trends - 7 of Hougang's last 8 away matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of Albirex's last 5 home matches over 2.5 goals. Most recent 1-0 Hougang win was very lucky as Albirex missed a penalty.
Hougang have played 2 matches less than Albirex and if winning both, would only be 1 position lower than Albirex currently are.
5 match home winning run for Albirex. No draw in 11 for Albirex. No draw in 8 away for Hougang - LAY THE DRAW?
2.6 scored at home by Albirex on average, 2.26 conceded on average away by Hougang BUT again we have such anomolous tight head to heads.
5pm - Karabakh v Banga - 1.21 home - 4-0 to karabakh away and again questionable motivation at home in this 2nd leg. 4 draws and 4 wins away for Banga in their league could be the reason karabakh's price is big relative to others.
HEAD TO HEADS1-0 down to a 2-1 win.
LEAGUE POSITION 6th v 3rd in a league of only 9 teams
HOME TEAM 0 GULBENE
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLDD - wins against 9th, 5th, 4th , draws v 7th and 8th ( 1-1's) and loss v top side ( 0-2)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWLWLDLWDL - inconsistent form .Losses v 7th, 2nd, 1st, 8th and 5th - in a league of 9, they have nearly lost to all sides either at home or away)
GOAL TRENDS - last 4 home matches under 2.5 goals. 3 of last 4 matches overall over 2.5 goals - the exception a 1-1 by halftime scoreline 3 wins, 1 loss , 2 draws, 2 clean sheets - 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded at home.
STREAKS - 3 at home without a win. 2 match home draw sequence ( both score draws)
AWAY TEAM LIEPAJAS
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWWLW - great away form -sole loss away was a 2-1 v 2nd where Liepajas missed a penalty. Wins v 9th, 5th, 8th, 4th, 7th 1st. Yes a 1-0 away win v top side scored in the 2nd minute hints at a strong defense? 23 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in last 26 away matches for Liepajas - superb stuff.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWDWLWWLWLLW - interesting the amount of losses overall - I did not expect that with such strong away form.Losses v 6th, 5th, 2nd 4th - and in a league of only 9, we cannot really say that Liepajas are losing only v top 6 sides!!! No draw in 9 . 3 of the recent losses have been 1-0's so perhaps it is wise to do a 1-0 insurance bet if you fancy Liepajas by backing Gulbene 2005 to win 1-0?
GOAL TRENDS - 13 of last 16 away matches have been over 2.5 goals.6 wins, 1 loss no draw away - 3 clean sheets 2.71 scored and 0.71 conceded away.
STREAKS - 12 overall without a draw - 7 without a draw away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it was all looking so rosey for Liepajas until I looked at their recent overall form with sees 3 losses in last 5, and 3 of last 4 losses 1-0's This is in marked contrast to the superb away form which would have had me very interested in the 1.27. Last 4 home matches for Gulbene over 2.5 goals and 13 of last 16 away matches for Liepajas over 2.5 goals. Always difficult to gauge in a league of 9 how accurate the overall stats are.
530pm - 1860 Munich v Leverkusen - 1.44 away - 9th in Division 2 v 2nd in Bundesliga in this friendly and again, like the Hearts and Club Brugge matches recently, logic dictates an easy win for Leverkusen. 4 wins in 4 friendlies for Leverkusen since May , scoring 6,9,2,4 . WWDDD for Munich latest friendlies 2-2, 0-0, 3-3 in their friendlies. Opposition questionable though.
6pm - Hacken v Kaerjeng - 1.11 home - Europa League 2nd leg - 1-1 from the 1st leg saw Hacken score a 93rd minute equaliser . Sweden v Luxembourg - home advantage expected to count.
6pm - Sportfreunde Lotte v Rangers - 1.23 away - a friendly and Sportfreunde Lotte play in the Oberliga Westfalen. Like Hearts away to East Fife, logic dictates Rangers will win and with ease.
6pm - Tromso v FC Daugava - 1.13 home - Europa League 2nd leg - 5-0 to Tromso in their away leg and quite obviously the better team by a mile. Their job is done though as to not qualify would require Daugava to score 6 to no reply. Odds suggest Tromso will take this seriously but remember the maxim from yesterday about teams not needing to win. 22233143 - the goals scored by Tromso at home recently. Potential team change?
7pm - Neath v Aalesunds - 1.38 away - Wales v Norway and 4-1 for the Norwegians from the first leg. 1.38 is an interesting price as the solid favs are away. Neath have an away goal so need a 3-0 win!
7pm - Paks v UE Santa Coloma - 1.11 home - Hungary v Andorra. Paks only won 1-0 away and surely with home advantage will make sure against a team from a poor footballing country. Interesting. Paks still have some need to win here.3,2,2,2,3,2,1,2 the goals scored by Paks at home recently signals that they should be competitive this evening.
7pm - Rabotnicki v Trans Narva - 1.16 home - Macedonia v Estonia and 4-1 away win for Rabotnicki makes it difficult to predict ( like Tromso) how they will approach this 2nd leg. Team changes?
730pm - Tre Penne v Rad - 1.14 away - San Marino v Serbia - 6-0 to Rad from the first leg and again questionable motivation, but let's face it a league side from San Marino should be beatable by Rad squad players surely?
815pm - KR Reykjavik v IF Fuglafjordur - 1.1 home - Iceland v Faroes. 3-1 to the Icelanders in the first leg . Solid at home playing a side who have lost 4 of their last 5 away league matches. I suppose the 1 goal for Fugl could focus Rey's minds but 3 away goals should suffice. They'll be singing " there's only one Knattspyrnufélag Reykjavíkur, one Knattspyrnufélag Reykjavíkur" ( thank feck !!) on the terraces this evening.
NOT IN PLAY
5pm - Fola Esch v Elfsborg - 1.29 away - 4-0 home win for Elfs and again questionable motivation for the 2nd leg.
645pm - NSI Runavik v Fulham - 1.16 away - 3-0 home win for Fulham. Will these Faroe Islanders reflect their national side who are difficult to beat at home. Watch out for team news here. Fulham need only a 0-0 or 2-0 loss to go through to the next round. At least Fulham is a side I know. 2 goals in the 2nd half in the first leg indicates potential for a tight first half. 3 draws in their last 4 home matches could signal a tight match, but then opponents have not quite been of the calibre of Fulham.
810 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Submission, 4/1 Gracefield, 5/1 Christmas Light, 5/1 Kerrys Requiem, 10/1 Makheelah, 10/1Mazamorra, 14/1 Adaria, 14/1 Cheers For Thea.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Submission is a progressive sort who is almost certainly capable of better, as is Gracefield, who should be suited by the switch into handicaps. However the pair are taken on with the more exposed CHRISTMAS LIGHT, who has slipped to a fair mark and who shaped as though coming to hand from a 4lb higher mark last week.[Richard Young]
5/4 - - - 6/1 but note race time! Fallon up and he ballsed up Star Commander 2 days ago. 8 runners and 3 places are ideal for place betting.
650 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Esentepe, 100/30 Bayleyf, 6/1 Chapter Seven, 10/1 Hi There, 10/1 Possibly, 14/1 Love Grows Wild, 16/1 Chrissycross, 25/1 Intomist, 25/1 Stag Hill, 25/1 Tidal´s Baby, 33/1 King´s Future.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ESENTEPE is still seeking her first win after five starts but she sets a clear, decent standard on her last two runs in particular and isn't one to oppose lightly in a distinctly ordinary maiden. Bayleyf is next best, ahead ofChapter Seven.[Mel Cullinan]
I have been following Esentepe in these messages of late. A Hannon maiden 2 year old should win soon. Consistent placed form 3,3,2,4,2 - the 4th place came in a class 1 and this is a class 5. I feel this horse is strong enough to place again if not winning. 5 under 20/1
5/4 - - - 9/4 - - - 7/1 price gapper. Baylef is close 2nd fav. Again an evening race the slight negative.
205 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Perfect Cracker, 11/4 Swift Bird, 7/2 Celestyna, 9/1 Semmsu, 12/1 Samanda, 20/1 Elusive Diva, 33/1 Trust Me Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PERFECT CRACKER has been costly to follow so far but this is much his easiest assignment and he deserves another chance. The consistent Swift Bird is taken to chase him home.[Stuart Redding]
4 under 25/1 in this maiden makes this, we hope, a 4 horse race for 2 places, and a good chance for Perfect Cracker to finish in the first 2?
240 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Pearl Diva, 10/1 Dine Out, 14/1 Misred Melissa, 20/1 Especially Red, 33/1 Almirah, 33/1Monessa.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: She won't be much of a price but it's hard to look beyond PEARL DIVA, who has gone close in two contests much hotter than this.[Stuart Redding]
5 furlong 2 year old races open to shocks as was seen with the claimer yesterday where the fav was unplaced. But surely Pearl Diva is different?1/14 now though - yikes.
755 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Nantucket Bay, 11/4 Saddler´s Rock, 9/2 False Economy, 13/2 Solo Performer, 8/1 King Of Aran, 9/1 Un Hinged, 10/1 Luc Jordan, 10/1 Regresa A Mi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Progressive three-year-olds often hold the edge at this time of the year as they are stepped up in trip in handicaps and this may rest between Saddler's Rock and NANTUCKET BAY both having similar profiles with slight preference for the Ballydoyle inmate. False Economy won well here last time out and remains on a competitive mark. [Alan Hewison]
Now 7 runners and Nan is out. Saddler's Rock to place looks stronger with nearest rival out?
825 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Green To Gold, 7/2 Lady Bennett, 11/2 Monahullan Prince, 8/1 Days Ahead, 8/1 Formal Bid, 9/1 Carlowsantana, 16/1 Tresilian, 25/1 Mobane Ali.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREEN TO GOLD landed some good bets to score with authority at Bellewstown on Sunday and with 10lbs in hand according to the handicapper should follow up. However, a serious threat could come from the improving three-year-old Lady Bennett who will relish this trip judged on her Navan win. [Alan Hewison]
Missed the boat with the gamble? Berry replaced by apprentice now. 8 runners and 3 places picques my interest.
855 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Red Calima, 9/4 Enchanted Forest, 11/2 Benefit Of Porter, 8/1 Pageboy, 12/1 Lend A Hand Son, 33/1 Clonbur, 33/1 Munster Fusilier.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED CALIMA looks another winner for the Oxx team after two sound efforts over this trip which give her the clear edge over Ballydoyle's Enchanted Forest and with little scope for surprise among his rivals he is a confident choice. [Alan Hewison]
Oxx/Murtagh to gain the edge on Red Calima ? Only 2 places though. Progressive maiden 32 so far.
150 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Roman Soldier, 9/4 Frederick Engels, 6/1 Church Music, 7/1 Bannock, 14/1 North Star Boy, 14/1 Sans Loi, 33/1 Kenny Powers.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Coventry runner-up Roman Soldier sets the standard but he did have everything in his favour that day from a good draw and placed runners in that race have a mixed record in this race. Preference is forFREDERICK ENGELS who was very strong at the finish when taking the Windsor Castle and should have no problem with the step up to 6f.[Adrian Cook]
7 runners now ( still 3 places?) and 4 under 16/1 makes this a great probability race.
405 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fury, 6/4 Cai Shen, 6/1 Bridgefield, 12/1 Slim Shadey, 20/1 Casual Glimpse.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks likely to mainly concern Fury and CAI SHEN, with marginal preference for the latter who did well to get so close under top weight from his draw in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.[Adrian Cook]
A 2 horse race? If so the Ryan Moore ridden Cai Shen could be my choice.
SHORTLIST
530pm - 1860 Munich v Leverkusen - 1.44 away - friendly and 2nd in Bundesliga should LOGICALLY win, but logic plays no part in friendlies.
6pm - Hacken v Kaerjeng - 1.11 home - Hacken expected to make home advantage count after getting away with it with a 93rd minute equaliser away . Sweden v Luxembourg. Now down to 1.09
6pm - Sportfreunde Lotte v Rangers - 1.23 away - again logic dictates an easy pre season friendly start for Rangers. Illiquid market at present. 1.14 with the ladbrokes makes the current now 1.24 very appealing. I have backed Rangers at 1.24 hoping the odds will reduce to near bookie odds near the 6pm kick off so I can trade out.
7pm - Paks v UE Santa Coloma - 1.11 home - Hungary v Andorra league and still all to play for with only a 1-0 away win for Paks. I expect them to win with ease with home advantage Illiquid market up to 1.12 currently
730pm - Tre Penne v Rad - 1.14 away - San Marino v Serbia - San Marino side must be opposable surely but Rad 5-0 from first leg.
645pm - NSI Runavik v Fulham - 1.16 away - no need to win for Fulham but Premier League side away to Faroes League side? V interesting.
650 EPSOM - Esentepe just has the feel of a dependable sort from the dependable Hannon stable ( when it comes to 2 year old maidens) - illiquid betting market
205 FOLKSTONE would have been a strong bet had it been 3 places but the race is now only 2 places. Still, 4 under 25/1 makes this of some interest.
240 FOLKSTONE - 1.08 Pearl Diva win , 1.03 place
755 LEOPARDSTOWN - 7 runners and 3 places and original 2nd fav Sadders Rock should surely have a good chance of finishing in the first 3 with the hot fav now a non runner.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
530pm - 1860 Munich v Leverkusen - 1.44 away - probably not a one a day as this is a friendly but 2nd last year in the top flight should be buzzing after 4 friendly wins so far.
6pm - Hacken v Kaerjeng - 1.09 home - requisite motivation
6pm - Sportfreunde Lotte v Rangers - 1.24 away - much better odds at Betfair than the bookies but this may recount a weakened Rangers side but personally if I can back a 1.14 shot with the bookies at 1.24 pre match I will take that all day. I acknowledge this is a friendly and I will certainly accept the "told you so" if this fails but I am entering the match just in the hope the Betfair odds fall into the same price range as the bookies.
7pm - Paks v UE Santa Coloma - 1.11 home - another motivated side playing at home against perceived weak footballing nation.
Multiple?
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 | 1 and 2 | 1.17 | €100.00 | €17.00 |
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