1) 500 PONTEFRACT - Thubiaan to place only at 1.08 - and leave it at that in a poor day and wait for the next rock solid "Workforce" type bet. Pump up the odds with Caroline Wozniacki at 1.06 to beat 69th ranked Cornet in the Collector Swedish Tournament. This will make a 1.14 bet which is what I want daily.
2) 500 PONTEFRACT - Star Commander is one of 3 under 16/1 , and is 232 in last 3 races. The 2 came upped in trip under Fallon who has ridden him twice ( familiarity) and rides him again today. Around 1.24-1.3 to place today, I suspect you will have to place a Betfair SP bet as the market is illiquid. Alternatively, wait til 5pm
So that's the choice today. The assumption as you can see is that the 3 under 16/1 in the betting will dominate this race.
*****ONE A DAY - 500 PONTEFRACT - STAR COMMANDER TO PLACE ONLY*****
I will take a chance on Star COmmander and Thubiaan dominating ( the next best in the betting is a newcomer Afrikaans ( albeit a Mark Johnston horse)
I hope these 3 dominate and Star Commander finishes 3rd at least.
There may be some market moves up to 5pm and I will not be able to react to them ( remember Locum) - that's the chance we take with late races.
Safety? Perhaps Thubiaan and Wozniacki is safer but relies on 2 outcomes.
The 500 BRighton would have been the one a day yesterday had I known that it was to be a 6 runner race for 3 places. THe evening races saw both mentions win and place, but Blessed Biata was oh so close to a 2nd place , and Mundher held on for 3rd ( although that's why we back places)
Just too niggly yesterday. Brighton and maidens don't mix, although Ryan Moore made the difference on his 2 rides to get them both placed.
3pm - Otelul Galati v Anderlecht - 1.46 away - international friendly - Romanian side v the very famous Anderlecht. Nothing really to go on. Anderlecht have had 2 away friendlies in June in which they scored 4 goals in each. They look to be back to their good goalscoring form. THis may make the 1.46 enticing? Hardly any money in the market at all. Otelul have played 2 friendlies recently, conceding 4 in one, and a 0-0 in another. Anderlecht are 1.36 with Bet365 ( and I would recommend getting an account with them just for liquidity sake - their are no liquidity issues with a bookie of course!)
6pm - Groningen v Helmond Sport - 1.42 home - Division 1 v Division 2 in Holland and all we can go by is the odds. 1.4 with Bet365 if illiquid on Betfair. ( you can still trade though using Bet365 as original odds, and Betfair as reactive - to-goals/cards-odds. None of these 2 have had a match since 29th May 2011.
630pm - Club Brugge v Mons - 1.42 home - Club Brugge have had 2 friendlies recently, scoring 4 and 5 goals and are priced to win comfortably against a side who were in the Division 2 play offs in Belgium. There is currently £42 available to back Club Brugge at realistic odds on Betfair.
630pm - IBV/KFS/KFR (Y) v Grindavik (Y) - 1.33 home - I can find no details about these teams.
745pm - East Fife v Hearts - 1.4 away - 5th in DIvision 2 v 3rd in Premier League in this pre season friendly. Hearts are the next best team ( behind the Old Firm) in the Premier LEague. £29 available to back Hearts as I write on Betfair.
815pm - Stjarnan (W) v Grindavik (W) - 1.09 home - 2nd v bottom and we will be suffering again from lack of liquidity. I will not do a major analysis of this match. I would suspect over 2.5 goals is a goer. 11 of Stjarnan's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals. All 4 home league matches this year have been over 2.5 goals.
Away side have lost 6 and drawn 1 this season. 5 of those 6 matches over 2.5 goals. The exception saw 2 goals scored by the 31st minute.
815pm - Valur (W) v KR Reykjavik (W) - 1.09 home - not as clear cut as the above match and featuring 2 sides from Reykjavik
400 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dark Promise, 7/2 Folly Bridge, 7/2 Off Chance, 5/1 Law Of The Range, 8/1 Fontley, 11/1 Gobama, 16/1 Kinky Afro, 40/1 Snow Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last year's winner Off Chance is the marginal top rated on BHA ratings and looks very solid but DARK PROMISE (nap) can improve past her following her reappearance success at Newmarket ten days ago. Law Of The Range is another filly who has proved progressive in handicap company and may have more to offer.[Steve Boow]
8 runners and 3 places makes this of obvious interest. A listed race for fillies and mares, there are 3 horses over 25/1 here. This should reduce the competitive field to 5 runners for 3 places, which should increase the probability of Dark Promise placing?
500 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Thubiaan, 7/2 Star Commander, 9/2 Afrikaans, 11/2 Tiny Temper, 10/1 Kadoodd, 14/1 Jacob Mccandles, 20/1 Sugar Apple, 50/1 Business Bay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerful owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has won this maiden contest a few times in recent years and THUBIAAN, who had a couple of subsequent winners behind him at Haydock last month, can enhance that record. Star Commander looks the obvious one for the forecast, unless the betting suggests a big run is expected from one of the newcomers.[Steve Boow]
8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 makes this an ideal race. Maiden race and Thubiann has 2 2nd places to his name. Alas, the horse's price has crashed to 2/5 to win making the place only price likely unappealing. Star Commander an obvious alternative? 1.08 Tubuiann and 1.3 ( albeit only tuppence at that price) Star Commander. 3 newcomers and Afrikaans for Mark Johnston is priced as the most likely of these.
530 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Park Ranger, 7/2 Abarta, 7/1 Speed Steed, 10/1 Perfect Buttons, 12/1 Chapter Nine, 14/1 Knockgraffon Lad, 16/1 Cuckoo Hill, 16/1 Man In Black, 20/1 Gypsy Rose, 25/1 Another Harbour, 25/1 Super Collider, 25/1 Undanta, 50/1 Battlemount, 50/1 Moonlight Fencer, 50/1 Prima Facia, 50/1 Sheila´s Island, 50/1 Western Promise, 66/1 Mountain Bid.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Twice successful on the Flat,PARK RANGER looks clearly superior to these opponents.The improving Abarta should be able to reach the money. [Alan Sweetman]
21 runner maiden hurdle - PArk Ranger 4/6 - - - 6/1 - will have to avoid traffic problems.
315 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lemon Drop Red, 4/1 Rainy Champion, 8/1 Dynamic Idol, 10/1 Mr Plod, 10/1 Pertemps Networks, 12/1 Merton Lady, 12/1 Time Travel, 25/1 Ringstead Bay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pertemps Network is sliding towards a workable mark and the impression remains he'll be back in due course, but 3yos have won four of the last five renewals of this and could be set to dominate again. Lemon Drop Red is the obvious starting point after his easy Brighton win but another chance is given to RAINY CHAMPION.[Graham Wheldon]
Another 8 runner race, 3 places and a strong market leader - 4/5 - - - 6/1
4/5 after a sole win last time at Brighton. THe weather may have played a part in Lemon showing his best. No transferred to the all weather and suddenly all the rage ?
415 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Trumpington Street, 5/2 Miss Exhibitionist, 4/1 Sister Andrea, 5/1 Daddyow, 12/1 Fog Cutter, 12/1 Spanish Plume, 66/1 Ollywood, 66/1 Patricias Pride.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Trumpington Street again looked to have no excuses when turned over at 4-7 here last time and is taken on with MISS EXHIBITIONIST, who did better again for this sort of trip last time.[Graham Wheldon]
Trumpington Street I think was a one a day last time, coming 3rd at 4/7. Not a convincing display despite doing what was required for place backers. A 2nd and a 3rd on the all weather, and again a favourite for another 8 runner race for 3 places.
2 horses at 40/1 or bigger makes this a 6 runner race for 3 places. There are 2 under 7/1 - Trump at 11/10 and Miss Ex at 5/2
Starbound, 2nd in Trump's last race, won yesterday at Brighton - a good sign? I don't know.
Probability wise, Trump should at least come in the top 3 again?
TENNIS IN PLAY COUPON
3pm - Otelul Galati v Anderlecht - 1.46 away - -I know little regarding Otelul and this is a friendly. Anderlecht have scored 4 goals in each of their 2 friendlies in June, and Otelul conceded 4 and had a 0-0 in their 2 recent friendlies. The markets are so poor on Betfair as punters quite rightly see friendlies as a nightmare, but I would punt at the price I think. I can see Anderlecht scoring and potentially leading at some stage. Since I have written the blog, that odds have increased dramatically to 1.73 now which makes this a great price.I must acknowledge though that there is no smoke without fire. Are Anderlecht playing blindfolded , or with both legs tied together? THe odds have shortened at bet365 too, to 2/5
630pm - Club Brugge v Mons - 1.42 home - Belgian friendly but Club Brugge have scored 4 and 5 goals in their 2 recent friendlies. The quality of their opponents though is questionable.
The market is fleshing out with plenty of layers wanting to lay Brugge at 1.43 and 1.44. A solid side in Belgium, we are betting blind regarding attitude and team selection.
745pm - East Fife v Hearts - 1.4 away - logic dictates that the best team in the Premiership ( away from the Old Firm) should have too much for lower league East Fife.
815pm - Stjarnan (W) v Grindavik (W) - 1.09 home - if this market fleshes out, it could be an ideal accompaniment to Thubiaan at 1.08, or Wozniacki at 1.06. The goals markets may be worth consideration.
5 under 20/1 and 3 under 12/1, surely Trump can place at least if not win as 7/4 favourite here?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Otelul Galati v Anderlecht - 1.46 away - suspicious market drift and a quite high 1.05 to back one goal or more. I have backed Total Goals 1 or more at 1.05 based on the price, but I would not recommend it as a one a day , or part of a one a day as this could be a fix this afternoon.THe price is too big for me to ignore, particularly with an Anderlecht side who have scored 4 in each of their last 2 friendlies in June, and opponents who conceded 4 in one of their last 2 friendlies ( but note the 0-0 last time out)
815pm - Stjarnan (W) v Grindavik (W) - 1.09 home - unlikely to end up as a one a day , or part thereof, as the market is too illiquid. I would love to have 1.09 but doubt the market will be liquid enough for all.
500 PONTEFRACT - Thubiaan looks solid here , albeit at a price which reflects that. 1.08 might be worth taking in a forgettable day. For those who like speculating, Star Commander under Kieren Fallon, looks a solid alternative.232 in last 3 maiden runs, last 2 under Fallon. THe last race was up to this trip and a good 2nd place, well ahead of the rest of the field. As one of 3 under 16/1 he should surely have an outstanding chance of placing at a better price ( around 1.27 but with such an illiquid market, it might be better to take betfair SP)
415 WOLVES - Watching Trumpington Street last time out, particularly as he was a one a day, was painful viewing and I don't want to go through that again. He did place though. Will he consent to do the same today at the same venue. Not the most reliable sort though despite 23 form figures and a 3rd at Wolves last time. On a positive note, He was beaten by Starbound last time out, who won easily at Brighton yesterday.
8pm - Wozniacki v Cornet - 1.06 Wozniacki. - World Number 1 v World Number 69.--------------------
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