back-lay-trade-horses-football: 22/7

Decision making has been poor. Ascot -soft ground today - will this affect Keys , well ahead of the handicapper? he has won on soft though. I think the 730 Newmarket is the best of the day - 7 runners and 3 places and 5 under 25/1 should offer Sajjhaa a strong chance to place

*****ONE A DAY - 730 YORK - Sajjhaa to place only***** - 1.2 currently - ideally place bet far nearer the off time.

Another poor selection amongst strong research. Zilina, CSKA, Elfsborg, Famous Name, Iceni girl, York Glory, Tones all placing.

6pm - Dinamo Kiev v Obolon - 1.2 home - only 2 matches into the season so curtailed research
Head to Heads

07.11.2010	D1	Dynamo Kiev	0-2	Obolon Kyiv
09.07.2010	D1	Obolon Kyiv	2-2	Dynamo Kiev
14.04.2010	D1	Obolon Kyiv	0-4	Dynamo Kiev
17.10.2009	D1	Dynamo Kiev	2-1	Obolon Kyiv

Slightly ropey last 2 results for Dinamo Kiev. Draw and a win so far for Dinamo Kiev. Obolon are currently bottom with 2 losses from 2 matches. 4-0 away loss to top side and 1-0 loss. Again nothing really we can take out of these 2 matches. So it is a case of faith in the betting market above any real form.

620pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Targu Mures - 1.42 home - this looks like the beginning of the Romanian league so we need to look again at head to heads.

20.03.2011	D1	Dinamo Bucuresti	4-1	FCM Targu Mures
21.08.2010	D1	FCM Targu Mures	2-6	Dinamo Bucuresti
14.10.2008	Cup	FCM Targu Mures	1-2	Dinamo Bucuresti

Comprehensive wins in last 2 head to heads.
Only recent form has come in friendlies.

645pm - Lugano v Bruhl - 1.37 home - Zurich 2nd division and again it looks as if the season is beginning. WHat I can garner from limited research is that Bruhl are a promoted side from Division 3. Logic therefore dictates that they may be vulnerable away from home.

745pm - Drogheda v Galway Utd - 1.39 home
HEAD TO HEADS

26.05.2011	PR	Galway United	1-2	Drogheda Utd
08.04.2011	PR	Drogheda Utd	1-1	Galway United
29.10.2010	PR	Drogheda Utd	3-3	Galway United
20.08.2010	PR	Galway United	2-1	Drogheda Utd
25.06.2010	PR	Drogheda Utd	0-1	Galway United
23.04.2010	PR	Galway United	3-1	Drogheda Utd

Interesting that Galway have put up a good performance in head to heads. This match is likely to be a case of head to heads versus very poor recent form for Galway.

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 10th and 11 points v 5 points - 23 matches played so these are the 2 worse teams in Ireland.

HOME TEAM - DROGHEDA

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLDLLLLLWLL - win against UCD Dublin who are , yes, 8th of 10 in the league.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLWLWLWLLLL - wins against 6th, 8th, 10th are the only wins for Drogheda.

GOAL TRENDS - 58% over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all home matches this season.Concede on average 2 goals at home. 3 of the last 4 matches under 2.5 goals ( 2 were 2-0). Have conceded in all matches this season. Have not scored in any of their last 4 matches.

STREAKS - No draw in 8 matches, and 17 overall. No win in 4 overall.

AWAY TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLLLLLL - sole win was a 1-0 away win v Bohemians.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL - says it all.

GOAL TRENDS - 64% over 2.5 goals away from home.Score 0.63 and conceded 3.18 on average away from home. Only 3 of last 5 over 2.5 goals but 11 of last 14 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 19 matches. Have failed to score in 12 of last 16 matches. Have failed to score in last 2 matches

STREAKS - no win in 9 away and 19 overall. No draw in 8 away and 17 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the lack of a draw stands out like a sore thumb but remember this is the 2 worse sides in the league, who have 4 wins in their 46 matches played. How on earth can you trust Drogheda at 1.39?

8pm - Shelbourne v Salthill Devon - 1.07 home
HEAD TO HEADS

07.05.2011	D1	Salthill Devon	0-1	Shelbourne FC
03.09.2010	D1	Shelbourne FC	5-0	Salthill Devon
29.05.2010	D1	Salthill Devon	0-2	Shelbourne FC
19.03.2010	D1	Shelbourne FC	3-0	Salthill Devon

Shelbourne clearly dominant but only 1-0 last time out and that was a 70th minute goal.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 11th of 11.

HOME TEAM - SHELBOURNE

RECENT HOME FORM -

Fri	18/03/11	FID	Shelbourne	4 - 2	Wexford Youths
Fri	01/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 1	Limerick
Fri	15/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 3	Monaghan United
Fri	29/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 0	Finn Harps
Fri	13/05/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 1	Cork City
Fri	20/05/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 0	Longford Town
Fri	10/06/11	FID	Shelbourne	4 - 0	Mervue United
Fri	24/06/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 0	Athlone Town
Fri	08/07/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 1	Waterford United

Only recent loss at home was a 2-3 v 3rd in the league.

RECENT FORM OVERALL

Sat	05/03/11	FID	Longford Town	1 - 2	Shelbourne
Fri	18/03/11	FID	Shelbourne	4 - 2	Wexford Youths
Fri	25/03/11	FID	Mervue United	1 - 2	Shelbourne
Fri	01/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 1	Limerick
Sat	09/04/11	FID	Athlone Town	0 - 4	Shelbourne
Fri	15/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 3	Monaghan United
Thu	21/04/11	FID	Waterford United	0 - 1	Shelbourne
Fri	29/04/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 0	Finn Harps
Sat	07/05/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 1	Shelbourne
Fri	13/05/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 1	Cork City
Fri	20/05/11	FID	Shelbourne	1 - 0	Longford Town
Mon	30/05/11	FID	Wexford Youths	0 - 1	Shelbourne
Fri	10/06/11	FID	Shelbourne	4 - 0	Mervue United
Fri	17/06/11	FID	Limerick	0 - 3	Shelbourne
Fri	24/06/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 0	Athlone Town
Fri	01/07/11	FID	Monaghan United	0 - 1	Shelbourne
Fri	08/07/11	FID	Shelbourne	2 - 1	Waterford United
Sat	16/07/11	FID	Finn Harps	0 - 3	Shelbourne

Only one loss was the 2-3 v Monaghan. 11 wins in last 12 matches for Shelbourne.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets. 2 scored and 0.89 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 12 matches without a draw and 6 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - SALTHILL DEVON

RECENT AWAY FORM -

Fri	11/03/11	FID	Limerick	3 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	25/03/11	FID	Monaghan United	3 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	08/04/11	FID	Finn Harps	0 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	30/04/11	FID	Longford Town	2 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	13/05/11	FID	Wexford Youths	1 - 3	Salthill Devon
Fri	20/05/11	FID	Mervue United	0 - 0	Salthill Devon
Mon	30/05/11	FID	Athlone Town	2 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	17/06/11	FID	Waterford United	4 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	08/07/11	FID	Cork City	1 - 0	Salthill Devon

Only one win away was against 10th in the league ( of 11)

RECENT OVERALL FORM

Sat	05/03/11	FID	Salthill Devon	1 - 2	Mervue United
Fri	11/03/11	FID	Limerick	3 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	19/03/11	FID	Salthill Devon	1 - 1	Athlone Town
Fri	25/03/11	FID	Monaghan United	3 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	02/04/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 2	Waterford United
Fri	08/04/11	FID	Finn Harps	0 - 0	Salthill Devon
Fri	22/04/11	FID	Salthill Devon	1 - 5	Cork City
Sat	30/04/11	FID	Longford Town	2 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	07/05/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 1	Shelbourne
Fri	13/05/11	FID	Wexford Youths	1 - 3	Salthill Devon
Fri	20/05/11	FID	Mervue United	0 - 0	Salthill Devon
Thu	26/05/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 1	Limerick
Mon	30/05/11	FID	Athlone Town	2 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	11/06/11	FID	Salthill Devon	2 - 5	Monaghan United
Fri	17/06/11	FID	Waterford United	4 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	25/06/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 4	Finn Harps
Fri	08/07/11	FID	Cork City	1 - 0	Salthill Devon
Sat	16/07/11	FID	Salthill Devon	0 - 1	Longford Town

Again only one win this whole season and 7 consecutive losses.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 6 losses, 2 draws away from home.0.33 conceded 1.78 scored.

STREAKS - 9 overall without a win, 8 overall without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.07 signals an easy 3, 4 or more goal win and usually to nil. In 7 of last 9 matches, Salthill have failed to score ( include last 4). Only 1 loss for Shelbourne all season.

355 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Keys, 5/2 Colour Vision, 10/1 Alazan, 10/1 Mountain Hiker, 12/1 Dayia, 14/1 Magicalmysterytour, 14/1 Red Kestrel, 16/1 L Frank Baum, 25/1 Very Good Day, 33/1 Downhiller.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A pair well ahead of the handicapper here in last-time-out winners KEYS (nap) and Colour Vision, but the latter does have something to prove on a soft surface whereas Roger Charlton's 4yo has won on slow ground in bumpers.[Adrian Cook]

A 2 mile handicap is a niggly affair as jockeys can get the pace wrong with so long to think about the race. Frankie Spencer up on Keys who maintains strong favouratism as one of 2 under 9/1 - will they dominate?

655 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Flic Flac, 11/4 Edenshaw, 3/1 Boom To Bust, 7/1 Kucharova, 8/1 Blewit, 16/1 War, 20/1 Jeepers, 25/1 Ningaloo Reef, 33/1 Desert Cloud, 50/1 Friend Request, 50/1 Royal Bertie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The unexposed Boom To Bust could pose a serious threat to the two 80-rated performers who have clearly the best credentials here. The filly FLIC FLAC boasts the best individual piece of form, but is only narrowly preferred to Edenshaw.

5 under 20/1 and FlicFlac has Pat Smullen on for Dermot Weld.

740 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Thimaar, 8/1 Cops And Robbers, 10/1 Epic Storm, 12/1 Rien Ne Vas Plus, 12/1 Warneford, 14/1 Suzi´s A Class Act, 16/1 Astrantia, 16/1 Dawn Gale, 16/1 Ekhraaj, 16/1 Palazzo Bianco, 20/1 Midnight Moon, 25/1 Minnie Mambo, 50/1 Flo Motion, 66/1 Mancunian, 100/1 Hurricane Guest, 100/1 Raynell, 100/1 Ulla.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THIMAAR was beaten at odds-on here last time but even a reproduction of that form would make him hard to beat and his conqueror Eagles Peak could prove to be very smart. Eagles Peak's trainer is responsible for both Cops And Robbers and Rien Ne Vas Plus this time and neither can be ignored, while Epic Storm is a potential big improver.[Paul Smith]

Huge price gapper and likely a reasonable place only price given the competitiveness of numbers.

330 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Barizan, 11/4 Farleigh House, 25/1 Youandme.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be straightforward for BARIZAN if the sometimes trappy fences around here don't inconvenience him.[Jonathan Neesom]

Yikes - chase and a clear round should see Farleigh House as the value placer?

515 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hi Tide, 4/1 Goodwood Starlight, 9/1 Border Tale, 10/1 Rampant Ronnie, 11/1 Lady Anne Nevill, 16/1 Adajal, 16/1 Knightsbridgelives, 20/1 Crosby Jemma, 25/1 Pobs Trophy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HI TIDE (nap) has been a revelation in recent starts and is hard to oppose after his facile success here recently.[Jonathan Neesom]

9 runners and 3 places and a strong market leader in Hi Tide - a handicap hurdle and have we missed his strong runs?

4 under 14/1

200 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 O´gorman, 7/2 Citybell, 7/1 Brilliant Crystal, 10/1 Fifteentwo, 14/1 Duke Of Aricabeau, 14/1 Economic Crisis, 20/1 Endless Applause, 20/1 Hareem Dancer, 20/1 Koolgreycat, 25/1 My New Angel, 25/1 Rusty Rocket, 50/1 I´ll Be Good.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There were excuses for O'GORMAN's expensive failure first time out and his Gimcrack entry won't be worth the paper it's written on if he can't dispose of these. Brilliant Crystal could be a potential fly in the ointment with her yard going so well.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4/7 - - - 7/1 and is this a case of horses needing to win ( to protect reputation) winning?

735 WEXFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Black Belt, 4/1 Belleau, 5/1 Sixty Eight Guns, 9/1 Footcycle, 10/1 Invincible Don, 12/1 Llew Law, 12/1 Miss Brownes Fancy, 14/1 Latin Prayer, 25/1 De Vesci.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACK BELT looks much the most likely winner and this looks a nice bit of placing by Tracey Collins after the filly's breakthrough success on Monday. Former stablemate Belleau looks next-best, yet would be 11lb better off with the selection in a handicap. [Johnny Ward]

4 under 14/1 and a slight price gapper.

730 YORK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sajjhaa, 5/2 Contredanse, 8/1 Rainbow Springs, 9/1 Bea Remembered, 9/1 Myplacelater, 20/1 Fanditha, 33/1 Wrekin Sunset.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAJJHAA (nap) may not be as good as her effort when splitting Midday and Timepiece here in May suggests, but she has an obvious shout down at this level. So, too, does Contredanse, who is reported to have been sharpened up by headgear at home. Rainbow Springs may well outrun her BHA mark if a hood helps her.[Paul Johnson]

8 runners - 3 places - reliability given it is a listed race? - now 7 runners adn Contradanse looks interesting too - 5 under 25/1 for 3 places - very interesting.

SHORTLIST