There are more straightforward races such as the 220 Haydock today with 3 horses to place out of 4 running,but I feel Campanology could be worth risking at a nice 1.36 currently. Yes there are 8 debutants, but this hannon/hughes horse has won his last race ( but was disqualified).
So we have a very strong probability race and a risk on Campanology. As well, Sligo must enter calculations today
*****ONE A DAY - 220 HAYDOCK - INVINCIBLE FORCE TO PLACE ONLY***** Please take Betfair SP or wait til nearer the off.
I have bowed to probability here above Camponology. The chances are that Invincible Force will finish in the top 3 in a 4 horse race. Of course he could finish 4th and that would be bad luck. The outsider is only 1.54 to place which signals he has a chance, but I am hoping this provisional 2nd favourite will not get beaten by 3 horses in a 4 horse race. De Sousa onboard an added comfort.
Easy for Fulham and a chance to top up at 1-1 if you wanted as Fulham's odds were very generous once Crusaders equalised ( remember Crusaders are part timers)
Plenty of opportunities yesterday and the last 3 days have seen any number of excellent bets.
1230pm -
Hougang v Woodlands Wellington - 1.36 - another defeat for Woodlands? - there is some confusion with this match. Betfair has it as Hougang playing today as does soccerway. Futbol24 says that Gomback are playing Woodlands today. The official Singapore league website shows Hougang so I will do my research based on Hougang.HEAD TO HEADSmost recent head to heads 1-0, 1-0 ( woodlands win), 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-1 (hougang away). The hoodoo of tight matches ended emphatically in May 2011.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 12th of 12 - Hougang have played, generally, 2 matches less than others in the league, yes if they win both matches, will only move up one place.
HOME TEAM - HOUGANG
RECENT HOME FORM -
Losses against 1st, 3rd and 7th, draw against 9th - draw saw Hougang 2-0 up.. Wins against 12th, 10th, 4th, 1st, 8th - first 3 results were 1-0 wins and note one was against today's opponents, and against 10th in the league.
RECENT FORM OVERALL
No draw in last 12. Losses recently against 3rd, 2nd, 7th and 4th. So generally losing against top sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw, 4 clean sheets, 1.22 scored, 1.44 conceded on average at home.
STREAKS - 12 overall without a draw. Only one draw at home , and that saw Hougang 2-0 up so it would have been a successful lay the draw.
AWAY TEAM - WOODLANDS
RECENT AWAY FORM
Win against 10th - have failed to score in 9 of 11 matches away and 9 of 10 in the league. Win against Young Lions saw Young lions a man down and an 85th minute winner for Woodlands.
RECENT OVERALL FORM
draw against 11th, beat 10th ( 10 men), draw against 9th and recently beat 9th. Any coincidence positive results against bottom 4 sides?
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 8 losses, 1 draw 1 clean sheet away - 0.2 scored, 2.5 conceded on average away.
STREAKS - 14 without a draw, 9 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Woodlands have only scored 1 goal away in the league all season, and all positive results have come against 9th, 10th, 11th ( and Woodlands are 12th) . Both sides have strong trends to lay the draw. THis could be a repeat of the May scoreline although the 1.36 quote for Hougang does not relay a 4-1 scoreline.
HEAD TO HEADSVery dominant head to heads and goals galore.
LEAGUE POSITION - is this day 1 of the new league? The last league match was 22nd May and since then there have been friendlies.
I am going to end my research here as I believe this is a new season now so we have no up to date form /league form from which to work. Head to heads though point emphatically in favour of Debrecen and the chance for them to score 3 goals again IF fit and ready for a new season. First matches can always be unpredictable.
HEAD TO HEADS
A period of tight matches ended with emphatic results for Dnipro , albeit one was a friendly.
This is the 2nd match in the new Ukraine season so naturally there are no trends/patterns to work with, only historic H2H.
Kryvbas' 1-0 win came courtesy of an own goal and Dnipro's sole match was a 3-3 thriller which saw Dnipro 2-0 down away from home. Chance of goals if tallying that with the head to heads? Tenuous link mind you and little to go on .
HEAD TO HEADS
Talk about deja vu all over again!!! 2-1 scoreline anyone ( bar the Cup match) This is the first match of the season so nothing to go on bar tight head to heads and the odds from the bookies as a guide.
715pm - Hamburg v Al Ahli (UAE) - 1.09 home - big names have generally not disappointed in obvious friendlies thus far. Expect goals from Hamburg this evening in this friendly? 745pm - Bury v Everton - 1.33 away - 1-0 to Everton and 2-1 to Bury in 2007 and 2009 friendlies so caution advised re this evening! Best approached I suspect from an in running perspective. 745pm - Galway Utd v Sligo Rovers - 1.17 away - like Woodlands who begin this section, Galway are quite simply pants this season home and away. HEAD TO HEADSThe 3-0 is more in keeping with expectations following a shocking season for Galway.
LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 1st.
HOME TEAM - GALWAY
RECENT HOME FORM - LDLLLLLLLL - draw was 0-0 v 8th in the league.( a league of 10). Have lost at home only 1-0 against top 2 this season ( will play teams more than twice as such a short league)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWLDLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL - recent losses include 3-4 at home to 8th - so near a positive result.
Against top6 home and away, have failed to score in 10 of 12 matches. Only scored 1 goal in home matches against top 7.
GOAL TRENDS - 55% over 2.5 goals at home, probably because galway are not contributing to the stat( ie 2-0 losses). Have failed to score in 73% of home matches.Average 2.27 conceded at home.Only 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals because other 2 were 2-0 losses. Overall though recently,10 of last 13 matches over 2.5 goals.Although Galway have only failed to score in 1 of last 3, recently have failed to score in 11 of last 15 matches.
STREAKS -11 at home without a win, 9 match losing streak at home.16 match overall losing streak.No win in 18 overall.
AWAY TEAM - SLIGO
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDLLWLDDW - mixed bag away from home.Losses away against 2nd, 3rd and 8th Wins against 9th and 10th. Draws against 4th and 5th were 0-0 and against 7th was 1-1.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLWWWLWDWDWWW - unbeaten in last 7 with 4 wins in last 5 matches
GOAL TRENDS - 36% over 2.5 goals away from home quite low and shows that they have been struggling relative to home form.Only 1 scored, 0.54 conceded on average away.
Recently , only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in last 7 and in 9 of last 10 matches.Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 away matches , both 0-0's. Perhaps a cover of 0-0 today?
STREAKS - 3 away without defeat - 3 away without conceding, 7overall without conceding.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Sligo struggle relatively away from home, but overall, they have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 10 matches which , when we add the fact that galway have failed to score in 11 of last 15 matches. Slight concern with Sligo's erratic away form, but they have beaten bottom 2 away, although 2 of last 3 matches away have been 0-0's. Back Sligo with a 0-0 cover if the market is liquid enough on Betfair? Correct score to nil could be achievable?
8pm - Toledo v Getafe - 1.28 away - Division 3 v La liga in another friendly.
NOT IN PLAY
715pm - Harrow Borough v QPR - 1.19 away - 1-1 in a friendly this time last year, but has the dynamic changed with QPR now Premiership side? Will not want to lose or draw?
645 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Half A Billion, 5/1 Irrational, 10/1 Jay Kay, 16/1 Never In, 33/1 Lord Buffhead, 50/1Burnwynd Spirit.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HALF A BILLION shaped well on his debut and a reproduction of that form here should see him go one better. The rest of those with experience look limited, albeit Jay Kay might improve for the drop back to 5f.[Paul Smith]
3 under 20/1 but dare we trust one time outer 2 year olds to reproduce initial promising form?
220 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Nomoreblondes, 8/1 Invincible Force, 8/1 Restless Bay, 8/1 Sleepy Blue Ocean, 10/1 Your Gifted, 12/1 Athwaab.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these can force the pace and, although Nomoreblondes turned in an improved effort at York last week, she'd previously finished behind BEDLOE'S ISLAND and Beauty Pageant and it's the former, who is ideally suited by this trip on quick ground, that gets the nod.[Richard Young]
Now we have only 4 runners and yes we have 3 places! Superb probability therefore. No more blondes the obvious placer at an obvious price but we have 3 others for 2 places all starting at 1.35 and bigger. Invincible force is 2nd fav and chosen on that basis alone ( you could just as easily write the 3 remaining horse's names down and pick one -chance of placing far greater than not placing.
155 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tickled Pink, 5/2 Lady Gorgeous, 12/1 Amphora, 14/1 Idols Eye, 14/1 Shannon Spree, 20/1City Dazzler, 20/1 Dance Company, 20/1 Manbaa, 20/1 Tamima, 25/1 Gifted Dancer, 25/1 Refreshestheparts, 25/1 Tina´s Spirit, 33/1 Ice Missile, 50/1 Periwinkle Way, 66/1 Compton Bird, 66/1 Iced Opal, 66/1 Littlecote Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The majority either newcomers or once-raced and they will all have their work cut out to match strides with Lady Gorgeous and, more particularly, TICKLED PINK whose Leicester debut second has been very well advertised.[Frank Carter]
2 under 16/1 to dominate? One is a one time out 2 year old and the other the same. Both 2nd on debut in a race where there are 9 debutants and 7 one time out 2 year olds, and yes all fillies as well! I'll get me coat!
230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Campanology, 9/2 Harvard N Yale, 11/2 Martin Chuzzlewit, 6/1 Ektihaam, 15/2 Gunner Will, 10/1 Drummond, 16/1 Alvitude, 25/1 Producer, 33/1 Beau Duke, 33/1 Kula Kangri, 33/1 Welsh Nayber.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting newcomers - Harvard N Yale takes the eye in particular - and the betting should be informative but CAMPANOLOGY, who is the only other in the field with a Group 1 entry in the National Stakes, sets a decent standard on form and race-fitness can give him the edge.[Frank Carter]
Campanology is a winning 2 year old running in a maiden for Hannon/Hughes. Disqualified into 2nd place , surely he has an outstanding chance of not just placing, but winning. Shortlisted for sure despite this being a 2 year old maiden with 8 debutants. 7/4 currently and I thought he would be a much bigger price.
725 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dinkum Diamond, 7/2 Darajaat, 7/2 Piccadilly Filly, 13/2 Poppy Seed, 10/1 Five Star Junior, 25/1 Tamagin, 40/1 Belle Bayardo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Picadilly Filly officially has the best chance at the weights but it remans to be seen whether she will run to her mark in a first-time visor and preference is for the rock-solid DINKUM DIAMOND who hasn't had much luck in three runs this year and can take advantage of a drop in class granted better fortune. Darajaat, who was just in front of the selection in the Cornwallis last autumn, is also respected.[Steve Boow]
7 runners now - 4 under 14/1 and still 3 places. Dinkum Diamond must have a great probability chance of placing.
315 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ocean Myth, 4/1 Solfilia, 9/2 Musical Valley, 5/1 Faraway, 7/1 Always Ends Well, 14/1Zigazag, 20/1 Bertorella, 33/1 Cataract.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former stablemates Ocean Myth and Faraway should be on the premises (particularly the former with improvement on the cards) but one who might beat them both is SOLFILIA (nap), who showed enough at Newbury last time to be of interest off this low a mark and for whom Kieren Fallon is a positive booking given his 50% strike-rate for the yard this season.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Although this is a nursery ( a 2 year old handicap), this is an 8 runner race for 3 places and 4 under 14/1 so an argument can be made for a probability place only bet on fav, currently Ocean Myth.
425 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Take A Spin, 7/4 Urban Kode, 5/2 Phase Shift, 33/1 Sally Anne.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Urban Kode won't go down easily but in receipt of weight it's not hard to prefer the less exposedTAKE A SPIN.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 under 33/1 for 2 places - superb probability race again, but front 3 are tightly matches price wise.
SHORTLIST
1230pm -
Hougang v Woodlands Wellington - 1.36 - the 1.36 signals a degree of trepidation but looking at Woodland's inability to score away and you would hope Hougang can get at least one.715pm - Hamburg v Al Ahli (UAE) - 1.09 home - totally illiquid on Betfair ( bet365 alternative?) Now 1.15 with a massive £11 waiting at that price. Wait for nearer the off. 1.08 with bet365 so anything above that is a bonus. A friendly so we cannot be 100% sure but the odds suggest goals. 745pm - Bury v Everton - 1.33 away - a motivated first team for Everton will win with ease. The head to heads suggest otherwise 1-0 and 2-1 win for Bury last time suggest a weakened Everton side and a laissez faire attitude to this, the first pre season friendly. Team news will determine confidence.
745pm - Galway Utd v Sligo Rovers - 1.17 away - there will come a time when Galway break their losing run, but against league leaders who have not conceded a goal in their last 7? 715pm - Harrow Borough v QPR - 1.19 away - 1-1 in a friendly this time last year but QPR are now a Premiership side, and you feel they will need to win with their new status!
220 HAYDOCK - 4 runners for 3 places. Nomoreblondes very obvious but which of the other 3 is a certain placer? Invincible force for me simply because he is 2nd fav and should beat Athwaab the outsider. Or you can take your cues from the place only market. Your gifted might be 2nd fav ( but market v illiquid as I write)
230 NEWBURY - Campanology is literally a winner in a maiden, disqualified last time out. Yes I acknowledge this is a race full of debutants, but this Hannon/Hughes horse should place . The current 1.36 recounts that he faces a few unknowns from good stables. - 8 debutants in this race!! I think still it is worth the risk
725 NEWMARKET - Dinkum Diamond looks a good placer in a 7 horse race for 3 places and 4 under 14/1
425 NOTTINGHAM - another outstanding probability race as we have 3 under 33/1 for 2 places. They cannot be split, but remember you are more likely to choose the horse to finish in the first 2 than not!
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
immediately the 220 haydock springs to mind with 4 horses for 3 places, and Invincible force for me to place , based only on the fact he is 2nd fav as I write. Far more preferable to take your cues from place only market at 220pm
230 Newbury - 8 debutants carries all sorts of " dark horse" connotations but let's face the reality here that Campanology is a winner running in a maiden, albeit disqualified into 2nd last time out. Hughes onboard for Hannon -and 1.36 - yes please I will take the risk, and will take the hit if 3 debutants prove better than an existing winner with Group 1 entries.
Not plain sailing at all, but for me worth the risk.
715pm - Hamburg v Al Ahli (UAE) - 1.09 home - should be easy but the market is very illiquid - as easy I suppose as a friendly can get - team news required. 745pm - Galway Utd v Sligo Rovers - 1.17 away - Galway have lost their last 15, Sligo have kept a clean sheet in their last 7. Do note that galway at home to top 2 was only 1-0 losses. And that Sligo have had 2 0-0's in last 3 aways. Perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet?
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