back-lay-trade-horses-football: 21/7

"Bleedin' typical" You wait for one solid bet, and about 30 come along at once. But who to choose? Well, for me, CSKA Moscow look rock solid , but are away from home. Still worth risking. Worse case for me I feel is a draw here.
Zilina are 1.41 to win at home , despite being 3-0 down in their away Europa Leg. take the hint with home advantage for the Champions League whipping boys last season. Intriguing that there should be such confidence, but the away match saw them get a man sent off, and concede 2 goals, one of which was a penalty.
Levadia Tallin surely with home advantage can dispatch their Luxembourg opponents after a 0-0 in the first leg.
Horse shortlisters are predominantly from the evening races and as you know, it is folly to discuss the markets with 8+ hours to go

*****ONE A DAY - 445pm - Levadia Tallinn v Differdange - back Levadia in the match odds at 1.35 currently. If you can get over 1.3 then superb as it is 1.22 with Ladbrokes. Currently 1.35***** Please wait for the markets to flesh out as it is illiquid at present.
I hope that the Estonians can at least secure a home win against a team from a country with a poor footballing pedigree ( Luxembourg)

No problem for Inter Milan, and if I knew how crap Seattle were, I would have waded in. 7-0 to United!

Europa League matches predominantly today.

145pm - Malaysia XI v Chelsea - 1.05 away - another battering by a Premiership club. 4 and 6 conceded against Arsenal and Liverpool. Expect more bloodshed today and perhaps over 2.5 , over 3.5 goals.

4pm - Gaz Metan Medias v KuPS - 1.35 home - Romania v Finland and 1-0 to KUPS from the first leg. All to play for and the bookies expect the Romanians to fight back today.

4pm - Vojvodina v FC Vaduz - 1.23 home - 2-0 to Vojvodina from the first leg. 2 away goals, both scored 60th and 70th minutes. Is the leg over? The bookies think not, and this Serbian side are expected to make home advantage count against the Swiss side.

430pm - Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v CSKA Moscow - 1.43 away - Russian top flight league match.
HEAD TO HEADS

no head to heads suggest Volga are the newcomers .

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 1st and 16 points plays 34 points.

HOME TEAM - VOLGA

RECENT HOME FORM -

Mon	14/03/11	PRL	Volga	2 - 0	Tom' Tomsk
Sat	02/04/11	PRL	Volga	3 - 0	Dinamo Moskva
Sat	23/04/11	PRL	Volga	0 - 1	Kuban' Krasnodar
Sat	07/05/11	PRL	Volga	1 - 2	Anzhi Makhachkala
Fri	10/06/11	PRL	Volga	2 - 0	Krylya Sovetov
Sat	18/06/11	PRL	Volga	0 - 2	Zenit

Losses at home against 2nd, 5th and 6th hints at vulnerability against top side?

RECENT FORM OVERALL

Mon	14/03/11	PRL	Volga	2 - 0	Tom' Tomsk
Mon	21/03/11	PRL	Spartak Moskva	1 - 0	Volga
Sat	02/04/11	PRL	Volga	3 - 0	Dinamo Moskva
Sun	10/04/11	PRL	Rostov	1 - 3	Volga
Sun	17/04/11	PRL	Lokomotiv Moskva	1 - 0	Volga
Sat	23/04/11	PRL	Volga	0 - 1	Kuban' Krasnodar
Sat	30/04/11	PRL	Terek Grozny	1 - 0	Volga
Sat	07/05/11	PRL	Volga	1 - 2	Anzhi Makhachkala
Sat	14/05/11	PRL	Spartak Nal'chik	1 - 1	Volga
Mon	30/05/11	PRL	Amkar Perm'	1 - 0	Volga
Fri	10/06/11	PRL	Volga	2 - 0	Krylya Sovetov
Tue	14/06/11	PRL	Krasnodar	4 - 2	Volga
Sat	18/06/11	PRL	Volga	0 - 2	Zenit
Wed	22/06/11	PRL	Rubin Kazan'	2 - 0	Volga
Sun	26/06/11	PRL	Tom' Tomsk	0 - 3	Volga

Only 2 wins in last 11 matches for Volga hints again at vulnerability.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 3 losses, no draws , 3 clean sheets.1.33 scored at home, and 0.83 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 7 matches at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - CSKA MOSCOW

RECENT AWAY FORM -

Sun	10/04/11	PRL	Zenit	0 - 3	CSKA Moskva
Sun	24/04/11	PRL	Tom' Tomsk	1 - 1	CSKA Moskva
Sun	08/05/11	PRL	Dinamo Moskva	2 - 2	CSKA Moskva
Wed	25/05/11	PRL	Krylya Sovetov	0 - 3	CSKA Moskva
Fri	10/06/11	PRL	Terek Grozny	2 - 4	CSKA Moskva
Sat	18/06/11	PRL	Spartak Nal'chik	0 - 2	CSKA Moskva
Sun	26/06/11	PRL	Amkar Perm'	0 - 2	CS

Only 2 losses in their last 22 away matches were both 1-0's and both back in 2010 - 4 match winning streak away from home and the 2-4 scoreline saw a 4-0 lead and 2 86th+ minute goals which hints that this match could have been another clean sheet win ( 3 of last 4 matches clean sheets for CSKA)

RECENT OVERALL FORM

Sun	13/03/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	2 - 0	Amkar Perm'
Sun	03/04/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	1 - 1	Krasnodar
Sun	10/04/11	PRL	Zenit	0 - 3	CSKA Moskva
Sun	17/04/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	2 - 0	Rubin Kazan'
Sun	24/04/11	PRL	Tom' Tomsk	1 - 1	CSKA Moskva
Sat	30/04/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	0 - 1	Spartak Moskva
Sun	08/05/11	PRL	Dinamo Moskva	2 - 2	CSKA Moskva
Sun	15/05/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	2 - 1	Rostov
Wed	25/05/11	PRL	Krylya Sovetov	0 - 3	CSKA Moskva
Sun	29/05/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	1 - 1	Kuban' Krasnodar
Fri	10/06/11	PRL	Terek Grozny	2 - 4	CSKA Moskva
Tue	14/06/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	3 - 0	Anzhi Makhachkala
Sat	18/06/11	PRL	Spartak Nal'chik	0 - 2	CSKA Moskva
Wed	22/06/11	PRL	CSKA Moskva	3 - 1	Lokomotiv Moskva
Sun	26/06/11	PRL	Amkar Perm'	0 - 2	CSKA Moskva

Only 1 loss all season was against Spartak Moscow and 1-0. 7 wins in last 8 matches overall.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins and 2 draws and 4 clean sheets. 2.43 scored and 0.71 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw. 6 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks CSKA's to lose. Worse case, I suspect, is a draw for Volga.

445pm - Levadia Tallinn v Differdange - 1.33 home - Estonia v Luxembourg and 0-0 from the first leg. Surely this Estonian league is a lot stronger than Luxembourg? This could be an ideal opportunity ( much like Ekranas a couple of days ago)

5pm - Elfsborg v FK Suduva - 1.12 home - Sweden v Lithuania and 1-1 from the first leg. Both goals were 70+ minute goals.Obviously Elfsborg expected to consolidate away goal advantage with an easy win today. In their previous Europa League matches, the scoreline away was 1-1 and at home 4-0 so this could be a pointer to today's scoreline ( and the odds back that up as well)

5pm - Karabakh v EB/Streymur - 1.13 home - 1-1 from the first leg and the Faroes team Streymur scored the equaliser in the 94th minute. Azerbaijan v Faroes - not quite the strongest football traditions from these countries.

6pm - AEK Larnaca v Floriana - 1.08 home - Cyprus v Malta - 0-8 to AEK from the first leg - questionable motivation at 1.08 but quite clearly a gulf apart.

6pm - Red Bull Salzburg v Metalurgs Liepaja - 1.09 home - Austria v Latvia. 1-4 from the first leg and again 4 away goals should signal end of this leg?

6pm - Tromso v Paks - 1.39 home - Norway v Hungary - 1-1 from first leg and Tromso scored first. Expected to make home advantage count. All to play for.

6pm - Vorskla v Glentoran - 1.12 home - Ukraine v Northern Ireland - 0-2 and 2 away goals signal the end for Glentoran. Will Vorskla play as per the 1.12 odds? A 0-1 loss is enough to see them through.

615pm - FC Midtjylland v The New Saints - 1.16 home - 1-3 to Midtjylland saw 2 goals scored in the 86+minute and an unlucky effort by the New Saints. 3 away goals too much now for the New Saints?

630pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Metalurg Skopje - 1.41 home - 0-0 and the away goal comes into play. Bookies expect home advantage for the Hungarians v the Macedonians.

630pm - Zilina v KR Reykjavik - 1.4 home -Slovakia v Iceland 0-3 to the Icelandic side as Zilina were 1-0 down before having a man sent off. After that, a goal and penalty put a gloss on the scoreline. Intriguing that Zilina are 1.4 and the bookies expect a fight back at home with a minimum of 3 goals required to regain parity WITHOUT conceding.

7pm - ADO Den Haag v FK Tauras - 1.09 home - Holland v Lithuania - 2-3 and a messy first leg - man sent off for Den Haag. Penalty for Taurus, 2-1 to Taurus until a penalty for Den Haag and a 94th minute own goal gave Den Haag the win. And they are 1.09 at home?

7pm - FK Jablonec v Flamurtari - 1.21 home - 0-2 to Jablonec - 2 away goals enough to end this 2nd leg?

7pm - Gaziantepspor v FC Minsk - 1.35 home - 1-0 to Minsk and then an own goal for the equaliser and the Turkish side are short priced fav against these Belarussians.

730pm - Fulham v Crusaders - 1.05 home - 2 70th+ minute goals ensured Fulham cruising through against the Crusaders. Expect goals with home advantage in a match they do not need to win.

745pm - Nacional v Hafnarfjordur - 1.22 home - 1-1 and all to play for, the Portugeuse expected to consolidate at home against the Icelanders.

830pm - Rio Ave v Porto - 1.56 away - first match without the manager who helped them to an unbeaten season, Porto have been scoring plenty in friendlies and are playing one of their compatriots in this friendly. Interesting to watch and a need perhaps to keep their unbeaten run even in a friendly?

200 BATH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Lady Jameela, 13/2 Emma Jean, 10/1 Empressive, 10/1 Mary Fildes, 20/1 Clodhopper.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: She's likely to be short but there's very little temptation to take on LADY JAMEELA, who comes here after faring respectably in a traditionally informative maiden at Newmarket's big meeting and a Lowther entry would suggest there's more to come from her. She should win well.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

2 year olds price gapper - 3 under 14/1

725 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 York Glory, 4/1 Shesastar, 7/1 Restless Bay, 8/1 Fast Shot, 8/1 My Own Way Home, 10/1 Dubaianswer, 12/1 Royal Bajan, 25/1 Maverik, 50/1 Il Battista.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dual C&D winner Shesastar has a fair chance of making it 3-3 here but YORK GLORY (nap) is due to go up 5lb for last weekend's clear Haydock second and is clearly the one to beat.[Graham Wheldon]

321212 is superb form for York Glory but handicaps are difficult races.

830 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dubawi Dancer, 8/1 Man Of God, 10/1 Hawridge Song, 16/1 Adlington, 16/1 Spyder, 25/1 Subramaniam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUBAWI DANCER isn't going to be any kind of price as long as the ground stays on the fast side but she had plenty in hand at Yarmouth last week and will be hard to beat under a penalty. Significant rain would be against her and help Man Of God.[Graham Wheldon]

4/6 - - -4/1 price gapper but only 2 places and slight concern re the ground at Yarmouth.

Given the time of the race, we would need to keep an eye on the weather up to 830pm.

710 EPSOM

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tones, 9/4 Pitt Rivers, 4/1 Miss Lahar, 14/1 Dark Ambition, 20/1 Intomist, 50/1 Christopher Chua.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With reservations about Miss Lahar, this boils down to a straight choice between Pitt Rivers and TONES. The drop back to 6f should not trouble the Hannon colt who also has track form.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 14/1 - Pitts River a non runner - surely Tones can take advantage?

630 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Iceni Girl, 9/2 Code Cracker, 11/2 Sunley Valentine, 6/1 Equity Card, 13/2 Camrock Star, 14/1 Better Be Mine, 16/1 Fu Fic Fas, 20/1 Roman Province, 100/1 Leading Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ICENI GIRL was just caught by a subsequent Group 3-placed rival in a 7f Kempton maiden last time and should be able to cash in on a good opportunity on her fifth start. Camrock Star and Sunley Valentine are the main form dangers, but the biggest threat could come from well-bred Sir Mark Prescott-trained newcomer Code Cracker.[David Moon]

A previous one a dayer I think in Iceni Girl - 2 2nd places now and another ideal place only chance here. 5 under 14/1 and 3 under 10/1

625 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tenth Star, 5/2 Parish Hall, 9/2 Orchestra Leader, 8/1 Strait Of Zanzibar, 10/1 Remember Alexander, 12/1 Vault, 100/1 Cheerful Giver.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tenth Star sets the standard after his Listed success over this C&D, but PARISH HALL looked a high-class prospect when making a winning debut back in April and can follow in the hoof prints of his illustrious stable mates that have won this race in recent years, Teofilo and New Approach. [Kevin Blake]

2 under 12/1 here

730 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Famous Name, 15/8 Dunboyne Express, 8/1 Jan Vermeer, 12/1 Moran Gra, 16/1 Creekside, 33/1 Blaze Brightly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FAMOUS NAME (nap) is a very formidable proposition over this C&D and while Dunboyne Express is a more than worthy adversary, Welds charge is selected to come out on top. [Kevin Blake]

3 horse race with Jan Vermeer the fly in the ointment

220 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Oasis Knight, 7/4 Aghill, 5/1 Midnight Fun, 8/1 Dont Tell Sailor, 33/1 Beat The System, 50/1 Black Eye Friday, 66/1 Mybandman.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Oasis Knight is not guaranteed to put it all in and preference is for AGHILL (nap) who can make the most of the weight received.[Jonathan Neesom]

7 runners now - 4 under 25/1 and an ideal place only race ( clear round of jumping of course)

SHORTLIST

145pm - Malaysia XI v Chelsea - 1.05 away - goals, goals, goals - but market is crap, crap, crap alas. Over 3.5 goals has a chance.

430pm - Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v CSKA Moscow - 1.43 away - worse case today I feel will be a draw. CSKA having a superb season and on a solid winning run overall and away. Infact, 3 of last 4 away matches have seen clean sheets and a minimum of 2 goals scored.