Thursday 28 July 2011

28/7

I would have preferred to have something like Man Utd for today's bet but that is gone now.

*****ONE A DAY - 730pm - Mainz v Gaz Metan Medias - back Mainz in the match odds at 1.25 ***** 5th in Bundesliga last season and should have a great chance at home if that German efficiency clicks.




Canford Cliffs placed with ease in what was a 2 horse race in a day where Chelsea won easily, COpenhagen won, Man Utd won 4-0, and Real Madrid's match was easily over 2.5 goals. One of those days I was very confident with.

12pm - Laos v China - 1.05 away - you know the drill with these odds - goals and a likely win to nil.
World Cup Asia qualifiers mostly on the international front. 23rd July saw a 7-2 win for the Chinese - expect the same again.

1pm -
Hong Kong v Saudi Arabia - 1.37 away - Hong Kong are terrible but then Saudi Arabia are not much better! 3-0 on the 23rd July 2011. Not really priced to replicate that but should win 1 or 2 -0 surely?

5pm -
Maldives v Iran - 1.17 away - 4-0 in previous match on 23rd July - Iran have not conceded in 7 matches.


6pm -
Anorthosis v Rabotnicki - 1.33 home - Cyprus v macedonia.Rabotnicki won their last Europa away leg 1-0 which might hint at their modus operandi this evening.

6pm -
Rustavi v Rennes - 1.43 away - Georgia v France and difficult to gauge an away team whose season and pre season is about to start today.


6pm -
Sparta Prague v Sarajevo - 1.33 away - Czech Rep v Bosnian side. Sarajevo did a 0-0 last away leg in the Europa League and won their home leg. Likely tougher opponents today though and an away draw the best they can hope for. In the driving seat of course if it is a score draw.

6pm -
Vorskla v Sligo Rovers - 1.28 home - Ukraine v Ireland. Well Done to Shamrock Rovers yesterday for keeping it down to 1-0 against FC Copenhagen. FC Copenhagen were 1.15 so maybe we are underestimating the Irish sides in European competitions?

630pm -
RNK Split v Fulham - 1.51 away - Fulham have conceded 1 goal in 4 Europa League matches thus far. Teams are getting tougher . SPlit conceded in both home and away Europa League matches last time out. I suspect Fulham are stronger than NK Domzale were and could easily get an away goal today against likely tough Croats.

7pm -
AZ Alkmaar v FK Jablonec - 1.43 home - Holland v Czech republic. AZ have 4 friendlies under their belts against dubious opposition. One of the lesser lights in Dutch top flight, I would be more confident if I saw the names Twente, Ajax or PSV.

7pm -
Differdange v Olympiakos Volos - 1.28 away - I am still reeling from Differdange's 1-0 smash and grab against Levadia. They will be found out eventually. Volos drew 1-1 at home and won 1-0 away against Serbian opposition. Surely this Luxembourger team today are weaker?

730pm -
Mainz v Gaz Metan Medias - 1.25 home - Germany v Romania - again you would logically say the odds are right here .

745pm -
Palermo v Thun - 1.4 home - Italy v Switzerland.

8pm -
Atl Madrid v Stromsgodset - 1.22 home - Spain v Norway - Always a chance that Madrid could be caught with the pants down pre season. Aguero off to Man City - Dayglow Forlan might not be rested enough after the Copa America with Uruguay winning only a few days ago. Team news key therefore with the forward line of Madrid questionable.

710 EPSOM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Enak, 11/8 Prince Siegfried, 9/2 Lord Zenith, 25/1 Jamhoori.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless Lord Zenith can improve several pounds for the step back up to 1m2f (raced mainly over a mile), this looks a straight shootout between Godolphin pair Enak and PRINCE SIEGFRIED. Enak has the edge on current ratings but Prince Siegfried is capable of slightly better form on his day and he's already proven on this idiosyncratic course.[Steve Boow]

Godolphin 1st and 2nd favs here in a race where 3 are under 25/1.

755 FFOS LAS


BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Plattsburgh, 4/1 Alazan, 6/1 Pelham Crescent, 13/2 Porgy, 8/1 Parhelion, 10/1 Lady Of Burgundy, 10/1 Saint Helena, 14/1 Yes Chef.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these look fully exposed and although Alazan is respected, PLATTSBURGH looks to have plenty to recommend him. His only blip since joining Mark Johnston came when there was a problem with his tack and he won readily last week. He still has more to come over this sort of trip and can continue his rise up the weights.[Paul Smith]

Dazzler on a Mark Johnston favourite here in an 8 runner race for 3 places.


335 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Anam Allta, 9/2 Core Element, 11/2 Allegra Tak, 6/1 Crystal Morning, 7/1 Colour Of Love, 7/1 Gossamer Seed, 8/1 Act Of Love, 20/1 Miranda´s Girl, 33/1 Dash Back.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A cracking contest. This ought to be no cakewalk for ANAM ALLTA, yet she has the box draw and it would be surprising if her trainer had not improved her since her highly laudable effort on reappearance at The Curragh. All but two of the remainder are definite contenders, with Gossamer Seed and Core Element respected in particular. [Johnny Ward]

it seems the way to profit this Galway is backing big priced WELD runners. Anam Allta is not one of those but should place in this 9 runner affair with the excellent Pat Smullen onboard again.

450 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 The Real Article, 7/1 Dirar, 9/1 Captain Cee Bee, 10/1 Hidden Universe, 10/1 Plan A, 14/1 Action Master, 14/1 Fosters Cross, 14/1 Redera, 14/1 Street Entertainer, 16/1 Gimli´s Rock, 16/1 Moon Dice, 16/1 Silverhand, 20/1 Bahrain Storm, 20/1 Deutschland, 20/1 Inspector Clouseau, 20/1 Oilily, 20/1 Son Amix, 20/1 Tawaagg, 33/1 Alderwood, 33/1 Total Excitement.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE REAL ARTICLE (nap) has captured many headlines for the wrong reasons since his eye-catching run behind Captain Cee Bee over this trip at Tipperary. Having been raised 18lbs in future since going down by a short head to Eddie Harty's 2008 Supreme Novices' hero, he is difficult to oppose contesting his first handicap. Sole overseas raider Street Entertainer has each-way claims along with Action Master, while Dirar, who started favourite for this race 12 months ago, looks the pick of the Gordon Elliott pair. He looks another who merits consideration, along with Hidden Universe and Monday's amateur handicap winner Fosters Cross. [Brian Fleming]

Absolutely " thrown in" apparently, the REal Article - softly ridden in a short head loss last time out, expected to be made more use of today.

235 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Al Mahmeyah, 5/2 Pussycat Dream, 3/1 Ashbina, 10/1 Ave Sofia, 14/1 Pitti Sing, 20/1 Four Poorer, 100/1 Love Tale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ashbina and Pussycat Dream are likeable newcomers on paper from much respected yards but unless either is backed off the boards this looks best left to AL MAHMEYAH, who has the all important experience and sets a reasonable standard.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8 runners , 4 under 16/1 and Al Mahmeyah to place? Another maiden with a lot of newbies so slight risk but the chosen horse has that important experience.

220 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Taroum, 5/2 Fintan, 11/4 Archie Rice, 13/2 Tamarillo Grove, 16/1 Officer In Command, 25/1 Astromoon, 33/1 Dazzling Rita, 40/1 Kargarann, 40/1 Ship To Shore, 50/1 Warrior Nation, 100/1 Indared, 100/1 Trepalo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taroum is the only one proven at the trip but it's hard to be confident about him until he shows he has what it takes. Fintan has obvious claims but this might be the chance for ARCHIE RICE to come good over hurdles.[Jonathan Neesom]

4 under 20/1 in this maiden hurdle - prospective good probability race with a clear round of jumping from the main protagonists.

SHORTLIST

1pm - Hong Kong v Saudi Arabia - 1.37 away - I was interested in Goals in the Laos match but it is pitifully illiquid as is this match. Depends on Saudis really who are clearly the better side if recent head to heads 5 days ago are anything to go by.

6pm - Sparta Prague v Sarajevo - 1.33 away - based on logic rather than form

6pm - Vorskla v Sligo Rovers - 1.28 home - how strong are Vorskla , that is the question. Is the Ukrainian league better quality than Ireland , and again logic would dictate it is.

630pm - RNK Split v Fulham - 1.51 away - Split conceded in their last 2 Europa League matches. Fulham should be capable of scoring that key away goal, and would take a score draw too.

7pm - Differdange v Olympiakos Volos - 1.28 away - Greek SUper league surely better quality? But Greece reknowned for tight low scoring unimaginative football?

730pm - Mainz v Gaz Metan Medias - 1.25 home - again nothing concrete to go on, bar the fact Mainz are Bundesliga v Romanian league side. 5th in the Bundesliga last season, Mainz in good nick.

8pm - Atl Madrid v Stromsgodset - 1.22 home - a weaker forward line? Watch out for team news. Surely La Liga the dominant force here, although Norwegian sides have match fitness.

755 FFOS LAS Plattsburgh for Mark Johnston in an 8 runner race must have a great chance of placing.

335 GALWAY - Anam Allta for Weld/Smullen is a 6/5 - - -5/1 price gapper here but the market, bar this fav, signals a competitive race.

450 GALWAY - The real article should be competitive in this handicap - 4 to be placed as this is a 16+ runner handicap.

235 NOTTINGHAM - 7 runners and 3 places still and Al Mahmeyah comes from the right stable, has 2 runs, but is a 2 year old with sloppy exiting from gate skills. 3 one time outers and 3 debutants always leave a ? about getting involved in maidens.

220 STRATFORD - 4 under 20/1 here and the fav has 2nd itis and was beaten 10 and 13 lengths into 2nd twice. Not that convincing. A race for a probability bet.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1pm - Hong Kong v Saudi Arabia - 1.37 away - looks good odds for me - won easily only 5 days ago and likely another win to nil for the Saudis

6pm - Sparta Prague v Sarajevo - 1.33 away - Sparta Prague's league is surely stronger than the Bosnians?

6pm - Vorskla v Sligo Rovers - 1.28 home - likely to struggle away from home in this Europa League first leg. Ukrainian league is more competitive than the Irish Premiership ( a league of 10 teams only I believe)

7pm - Differdange v Olympiakos Volos - 1.28 away - I'm still keen to take on this Luxembourg league side despite Levadia Tallin's inability to beat them. They will come undone soon and a Greek Premier League outfit could be just the tonic.


730pm - Mainz v Gaz Metan Medias - 1.25 home - Mainz had a great season last season and finished 5th. Home advantage and should do the business at home.

8pm - Atl Madrid v Stromsgodset - 1.22 home - potentially vulnerable without Aguero and with Forlan potentially tired from Copa America? But surely La Liga stronger.

335 GALWAY - Anan Allta for Weld to place looks strong.

235 NOTTINGHAM - Al Mahmeyah could place here - 7 runners and 3 places and a Hannon/Cosgrove horse - risks attached - 2 year old - bad from the gates - 3 newcomers - 3 one time outers could be anything but only has to beat 4 to place - add to the fact this is fillies too!








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