Friday 29 July 2011

30/7

Harbour Watch won. I am visiting my Mother today - she is not well so I am doing this the night before and apologise for that. I will be missing the betting markets and their accuracy.

11am - Blackburn v Kitchee SC - 1.1 home - highly illiquid market of course and Kitchee coming off the back of a 4-0 loss to Chelsea. This is ultimately a meaningless revenue only match and should see any semblance of a half interested Blackburn side win with ease.

12pm -
St Johnstone v Rangers - 1.55 away - only the 2nd match of the season and already Rangers are in trouble , having dropped 2 points at home, with Celtic winning their match.
05.04.2011 PR St. Johnstone 0-2 Glasgow Rangers
27.02.2011 PR Glasgow Rangers 4-0 St. Johnstone
28.08.2010 PR Glasgow Rangers 2-1 St. Johnstone
30.03.2010 PR St. Johnstone 4-1 Glasgow Rangers
03.02.2010 LC Glasgow Rangers 2-0 St. Johnstone
12.12.2009 PR Glasgow Rangers 3-0 St. Johnstone

Nearly a clean sweep for Rangers.
0-0 for St Johnstone against Aberdeen and 1-1 for Rangers at home to Hearts ( coming from behind)
This is already a must win for Rangers and is likely to be a frustrating tough fought afternoon for Rangers. They lost recently to Malmo and Ally McCoist must really win this fixture to stem the early season bloody nose. Celtic are playing Inter Milan in a friendly which is a bit random as the SPL has already started

2pm - Airtricity XI v Man City - 1.21 away - I think this is another pointless tournament, this time in Dublin and featuring an Irish select XI against a City side ( with Aguero?)

Before I go to the next lot of matches, check out the scorelines in the recent German Cup matches

GERMANY: DFB Pokal
20:30Pen' Essen 2 : 2Union Berlin
20:30AET' Osnabruck2 : 31860 Munchen
20:30FT' RB Leipzig3 : 2Wolfsburg
20:30FT' Regensburg1 : 3Borussia M.
20:30AET' Saarbrucken1 : 3Erzgebirge Aue
20:30FT' Wehen1 : 2Stuttgart


230pm -
Bielefeld v Nurnberg - 1.5 away - German Cup and Division 3 v Bundesliga - cues from the recent matches in the German Cup - all over 2.5 goals featuring at least one shock result for Leipzig against Wolfsburg
230pm -
Dynamo Berlin v Kaiserslautern - 1.09 away - NOFV Oberliga Nord v Bundesliga. You know the drill - expect over 3.5 / 4.5 goals.
230pm -
Dynamo Dresden v Leverkusen - 1.5 away - Division 2 v Bundesliga
230pm -
FC Heidenheim v W Bremen - 1.4 away - so a German Cup which has featured goals recently and a Werder Bremen side who love conceding and scoring. - Division 3 v Bundesliga
230pm -
Oldenburg v Hamburg - 1.09 away - Oberlieder sachsen v Bundesliga - and see the Kaiserslautern match re goals.
230pm -
Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn - 1.35 away - Division 3 v Division 2
430pm -
HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn - 1.38 home
HEAD TO HEADS
22.05.2011 D1 IFK Mariehamn 2-0 HJK Helsinki
25.02.2011 LC HJK Helsinki 4-0 IFK Mariehamn
30.08.2010 D1 HJK Helsinki 3-1 IFK Mariehamn
16.06.2010 Cup HJK Helsinki 3-0 IFK Mariehamn
29.05.2010 D1 IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HJK Helsinki
06.02.2010 LC HJK Helsinki 2-0 IFK Mariehamn

Helsinki seem to be okay at home against Mariehamn, but what was that 2-0 recent win for Mariehamn at home? Quite anomolous.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 5th

HOME TEAM - HJK - RECENT HOME FORM
Mon09/05/11VEIHJK 4 - 1KuPS

Thu12/05/11VEIHJK 1 - 0Inter Turku

Thu19/05/11VEIHJK 1 - 0Jaro

Sun29/05/11VEIHJK 6 - 2JJK

Wed15/06/11VEIHJK 5 - 1RoPS

Wed22/06/11VEIHJK 6 - 0TPS

Fri08/07/11VEIHJK 4 - 2Inter Turku

Sat16/07/11VEIHJK 3 - 0VPS

all wins

RECENT FORM OVERALL
Fri06/05/11VEITPS 2 - 0HJK

Mon09/05/11VEIHJK 4 - 1KuPS

Thu12/05/11VEIHJK 1 - 0Inter Turku

Sun15/05/11VEIVPS 0 - 2HJK

Thu19/05/11VEIHJK 1 - 0Jaro

Sun22/05/11VEIMariehamn 2 - 0HJK

Sun29/05/11VEIHJK 6 - 2JJK

Thu09/06/11VEIHonka 0 - 2HJK

Sun12/06/11VEIMyPa 0 - 2HJK

Wed15/06/11VEIHJK 5 - 1RoPS

Sat18/06/11VEIHaka 0 - 5HJK

Wed22/06/11VEIHJK 6 - 0TPS

Wed29/06/11VEIMyPa 0 - 1HJK

Mon04/07/11VEIKuPS 2 - 4HJK

Fri08/07/11VEIHJK 4 - 2Inter Turku

Sat16/07/11VEIHJK 3 - 0VPS

Sat23/07/11VEIJaro 1 - 0HJK

LWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWL - all wins bar 3 losses - not a draw in sight.

GOAL TRENDS - 8 wins at home, 3.75 scored and 0.75 conceded - 4 clean sheets.

STREAKS - 25 matches overall without a draw, 17 at home without a draw

AWAY TEAM - MARIEHAMN

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Mon02/05/11VEIMyPa 0 - 2Mariehamn

Fri13/05/11VEIHaka 0 - 2Mariehamn

Thu19/05/11VEIKuPS 2 - 1Mariehamn

Sun29/05/11VEIVPS 1 - 0Mariehamn

Mon13/06/11VEIInter Turku 2 - 0Mariehamn

Thu16/06/11VEIJJK 2 - 1Mariehamn

Sun03/07/11VEIRoPS 1 - 1Mariehamn

Sun17/07/11VEITPS 2 - 0Mariehamn

Started well with consecutive away wins against 7th and 8th but since then 5 losses and a 1-1 draw.

RECENT OVERALL FORM
Mon02/05/11VEIMyPa 0 - 2Mariehamn

Mon09/05/11VEIMariehamn 3 - 3RoPS

Fri13/05/11VEIHaka 0 - 2Mariehamn

Mon16/05/11VEIMariehamn 0 - 1TPS

Thu19/05/11VEIKuPS 2 - 1Mariehamn

Sun22/05/11VEIMariehamn 2 - 0HJK

Sun29/05/11VEIVPS 1 - 0Mariehamn

Fri10/06/11VEIMariehamn 3 - 1Jaro

Mon13/06/11VEIInter Turku 2 - 0Mariehamn

Thu16/06/11VEIJJK 2 - 1Mariehamn

Sun19/06/11VEIMariehamn 1 - 0Honka

Wed22/06/11VEIMariehamn 1 - 1MyPa

Sun03/07/11VEIRoPS 1 - 1Mariehamn

Sun10/07/11VEIMariehamn 2 - 1Haka

Sun17/07/11VEITPS 2 - 0Mariehamn

Sun24/07/11VEIMariehamn 2 - 2KuPS

WDWLLWLWLLWDDWLD - decent enough recent form - only one loss in last 6 - positive performances against6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th ( of 12) with the wins against 6th and 7th -recent draws , all score draws, against 8th, 10th, 12th.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw , 2 clean sheets, 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 6 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no draw in 25 matches for HJK - talk about a stand out stat! No win in 6 away for Mariehamn , all points to a comfortable lay the draw ( albeit at slightly too high a price). One big niggle is the Mariehamn home win 2-0 last time out - a fluke? - substandard HJK? Another niggle is Mariehamn's recent solidish form with only 1 loss in their last 6. Positive results though only against 6th+ in the league , and score draws only against 10th and 12th. Is it too much of a stretch to expect an easy home win? Winning runs will end eventually, as will outstanding sequences like the no draw run for HJK

515pm - Leicester v Real Madrid - 1.24 away
6pm -
FC Copenhagen v FC Nordsj - 1.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
17.04.2011 D1 FC Nordsjælland 1-3 FC København
21.11.2010 D1 FC København 2-1 FC Nordsjælland
14.08.2010 D1 FC København 2-0 FC Nordsjælland
05.04.2010 D1 FC Nordsjælland 0-3 FC København
24.03.2010 D1 FC København 0-2 FC Nordsjælland
18.07.2009 D1 FC Nordsjælland 2-0 FC København

Copenhagen have won the last 4 head to heads and have conceded in each of last 2.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th albeit only 2 matches

HOME TEAM - Copenhagen - 2-2 home draw - 1-0 down then 2-1 up at halftime


RECENT FORM OVERALL - WD - scored 2 goals in both matches.

GOAL TRENDS - as above - only 2 matches of course. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no defeat in 2

AWAY TEAM - NORD

RECENT AWAY FORM - 2-0 loss to Odense who recently drew 2-2 with Copenhagen. Good early collateral form.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - 2-0 loss, 1-1 draw

GOAL TRENDS - scored none away v Odense

STREAKS - too early of course

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 2 matches but we have head to heads and we have collateral form. Copenhagen have scored 2 in 2 matches so far. Odense drew 2-2 against Copenhagen. Odense beat Nord 2-0.

630pm - SV Sandhausen v Dortmund - 1.23 away - Division 3 v Bundesliga Champions.

225 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Natural High, 3/1 Duc De Savoie, 5/1 Carbon Credit, 12/1 Serious Fun, 14/1 Taken Twice, 16/1 Super Collider, 20/1 Franziskaner, 20/1 Zulu Principle, 25/1 Cnoc Seoda, 25/1 Imperial Joey, 50/1 Arderin, 50/1 The Two Jays, 66/1 Dowd´s Angle, 66/1 Flemingstown, 66/1 Great Alex, 100/1 Cloneyhurke Boy, 100/1 Fastnowfast, 100/1 Montego Breeze, 100/1 Northern Champ, 100/1 Premier Steel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dermot Weld must have been rubbing his eyes when the declarations for this came out, as there is virtually no credible rival to his pair, only one of whom is expected to run. The ground clarify matters and NATURAL HIGH really ought to win if, as his yard's horses invariably do, taking to this game. That said, Duc De Savoie was a warm order on his hurdling debut and would be the one to beat if he gets the nod. [Johnny Ward]

More winners for Mr Weld? - first and 2nd favs in this race and 3 under 12/1 in the betting forecast ( note that I am unable to actually relay the live betting)

400 GALWAY


BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Rock Critic, 10/1 Jamesie, 10/1 Northern Rocked, 11/1 Castle Bar Sling, 12/1 Collingwood, 12/1 Sean Og Coulston, 16/1 Back Burner, 20/1 Ask Jack, 20/1 Elusive Award, 25/1 Douze Points, 25/1 Obama Rule, 33/1 Drombeg Dawn, 33/1 He´s Got Rhythm, 33/1 Jembatt, 33/1 Snaefell, 50/1 Bay Knight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROCK CRITIC has more on his plate here after his facile win on Thursday but he hardly had a race then and, significantly, few of these appeal as being ahead of the handicapper. Those who take the short odds will be encouraged by his draw and he looks to have around a stone to spare. The 'betting without' market will be lively, with Collingwood capable of a good run (ground pending). [Johnny Ward]

So Dominant is Mr Weld, and partner in crime Pat Smullen, that a horse who win 2 days ago at the same festival is an unbelievable price gapper in this race.

430 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mannheim, 5/2 Hit The Jackpot, 3/1 Shareni, 7/1 Criostal, 8/1 All Approved, 33/1 Andrea Bellevica, 50/1 Ceol Na Mara, 66/1 Tohugo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MANNHEIM ran with more than enough promise at Gowran to suggest he will take the beating in this. Hit The Jackpot looks beatable and Shareni could emerge as a bigger threat. [Johnny Ward]

8 runners - 3 places - 5 under 33/1 in the betting forecast ( remember I have not seen the live betting market) - again I would default to the Weld runner Hit the Jackpot along with Aidan O'Brien's Mannheim

310 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Midday, 15/8 Snow Fairy, 7/2 Crystal Capella, 12/1 Barefoot Lady, 12/1 Principal Role, 33/1 Field Day.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIDDAY has won this race twice already and Snow Fairy is a serious rival judged on her best efforts last season. Midday ran moderately at the Curragh last time but that went very much against the trend and she looks the most likely to emerge on top assuming a return to her previous level. The firmer ground and shorter trip are both likely to pose problems for Crystal Capella.[Richard Austen]

Mouthwatering stuff - only 2 places and 3 likely competitors should keep the place prices keen.

840 HAMILTON

ETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Vizean, 7/2 Needwood Park, 6/1 Takhreej, 8/1 Chookie Royale, 10/1 Missile Attack, 10/1 So Wise, 25/1 King Bertolini, 25/1 Naafetha.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive maiden in which Vizean is the form choice but she's not really progressing and is taken on with TAKHREEJ, a well-bred sort who was picked up by current connections for 16,000gns and should build on his debut experience.[Richard Young]

3 2nd places and a 34 day beaten favourite - still he should place surely in this 8 runner, 3 place maiden. A degree of consistency if not progression.

305 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Al Mayasah, 11/4 Map Of Heaven, 13/2 Lady By Red, 14/1 Dream Dream Dream, 14/1 Tiger Royale, 25/1 Cranworth Quest, 40/1 Munaa´s Dream, 50/1 Marina Ballerina, 50/1 She Deals, 100/1 Tootie Flutie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL MAYASAH has looked less than straightforward under pressure the last twice but she sets a fair standard in an uncompetitive race and is difficult to oppose with main form rival Map Of Heaven not certain to appreciate this step back up in distance. Newcomers Lady By Red and Tiger Royale are worth a check in the betting.[Steve Boow]

3 under 14/1 here and a maiden fillies race.







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