*****ONE A DAY - absolutely nothing rock solid today. THe racing is as competitive as I have seen on a Saturday for a long while. The 2 races of interest are maidens, and if I don't learn from yesterday.....!
Football wise, I am happy to have Bayern on my side, perhaps with a 0-0 cover? Team news vital and this is a friendly so not so much of a shock if there is a draw or Qatar win.
Sligo Rovers look rock solid against Drogheda, but then so were Dundalk when I put them up as a one a day and Drogheda win 1-2. So nothing for me today******
to look at though - German ladies, Bayern Munich, potential for a win to nil for Sligo 2-0, 3-0 ( include a safey net of 2-1?)
Heynckes started his troops in a tried and trusted 4–2–3–1 formation, with Rafinha, Daniel van Buyten, Holger Badstuber and Philipp Lahm forming the rearguard in front of keeper Manuel Neuer. Bastian Schweinsteiger and Anatoliy Tymoshchuk lined up in defensive midfield, with Arjen Robben, Toni Kroos and David Alaba looking to supply lone centre forward Mario Gomez.
5pm - Dortmund v FC Zurich - 1.83 home - if this was a competitive match, I would be all over Dortmund who had a superb season last season.
5pm - Rosenborg v Stromsgodset - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE SEASON - 10th v 4th and it is the 10th team in the league who are favourites.I had to actually recheck the odds and indeed Rosenborg, 10th in the league, are the favourites over 4th. Both teams have played 13 matches and Rosenborg have 19 points v Stroms on 23 points, so the league positions belie the fact that the 6 league positions do not reflect any real difference in performance between these 2.
| 26.09.2010 | D1 | Stromsgodset IF | 1-1 | Rosenborg BK | |
| 05.04.2010 | D1 | Rosenborg BK | 3-0 | Stromsgodset IF | |
| 12.07.2009 | D1 | Stromsgodset IF | 0-1 | Rosenborg BK | |
| 13.06.2009 | D1 | Rosenborg BK | 3-0 | Stromsgodset IF |
3 wins and a 1-1 draw where Rosenborg took the lead. At home we have 2 3-0 wins and away is where Rosenborg struggle when meeting Stroms.
HOME TEAM - ROSENBORG
RECENT HOME FORM- LDWLWW - losses against 8th and 9th by a single goal. Wins against 11th, 13th and 2nd and all by a decent scoreline 2-0, 3-1, 4-0. 4-4 draw with Lillestrom saw Rosenborg 4-3 up in the 89th minute!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWWLDDWWDW-after a shaky start they are in a 6 match unbeaten run - the 3 draws were away and 2 of the 3 wins were at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals at home.4 of the last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals, Only 2 home matches against top 6 were 3-1 and 4-4.
STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw, no defeat in 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - STROMS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLD - losses against 5th, 6th and 14th , draw against 11, and 1-0 win v 15th ( in a league of 16)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWDLWWLLWD - good start by Stroms but only 1 win in last 4. 3 of 4 losses were away. Recent wins? All 3 were at home, 2 by 1-0 scorelines. 6 wins at home and 1 win away sees Strom far better at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 80% over 2.5 goals away ( but remember only 5 matches to work with)-Stroms have scored in all away matches.
STREAKS - no win in 3 away , no defeat in 2 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads point to comfort for Rosenborg when Stroms come visiting. 2 3-0 wins recently. 3 wins in last 4 for Rosenborg and 2 consecutive home wins against 2nd and 12th, 3-1 and 4-0. Only 5 away matches but Stroms have won only 1. Likelihood the best result for them will be a draw today. Goals an option? 67% Ros at home and 80% stroms away ( they have scored in all away matches) but remember we are dealing with only 5 matches each which is really not enough to formulate rock solid stats. I would risk a goals trade here given Rosenborg's recent goalscoring exploits at home, coupled with 2 recent 3-0 home wins against Stroms.
745pm - Germany (w) v Japan (W) - 1.32 home. It has been profitable to take a contrary view with this women's World Cup, so laying Germany looks the initial early tradable call. No collateral form to go on here 2-1, 1-0, 4-2 for Germans this World Cup. 2-1, 4-0, 2-0 loss to England for Japs. Japanese lost 2-0 to USA in a previous match and I put USA up with Germany so look at that as an ideal scoreline. Likely to be frustrating early on as the strikers in this tournament need lots of chances to score. goals more likely to come from corners and other set pieces. An eventual German win after a frustrating period?
745pm - Sligo Rovers v Drogheda - 1.16 home - My lay of Cork would have been a profitable half time trade as they took til over the hour to score their single goal ( at odds of 1.11) yesterday. Will Sligo and Drogs offer us a similar lay opportunity?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 13.05.2011 | PR | Drogheda Utd | 0-3 | Sligo Rovers | |
| 25.03.2011 | PR | Sligo Rovers | 2-0 | Drogheda Utd | |
| 02.10.2010 | PR | Sligo Rovers | 2-1 | Drogheda Utd | |
| 23.07.2010 | PR | Drogheda Utd | 2-3 | Sligo Rovers | |
| 15.05.2010 | PR | Sligo Rovers | 6-0 | Drogheda Utd | |
| 02.04.2010 | PR | Drogheda Utd | 2-2 | Sligo Rovers |
1 draw and 5 wins for Sligo in head to heads, and most likely to be over 2.5 goals than unders. But a reliance on Sligo as Drogs have not scored in last 2 2011 meetings. Today's odds certainly relay another scoreline to nil for Sligo.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 9th, 40 points v 11th
HOME TEAM - SLIGO -
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWLWWWWWW - no draws and losses against 1st and 5th in the league ( a league of only 10) - against bottom 4 this season, have already won the lot without conceding at home.4-0, 2-0, 3-0 against bottom 3 sides ( Drogs are 2nd bottom)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWLWDWDWW - solid form - losses against 3rd and 1st most recently were away from home. 2 draws recently were 0-0's and away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs/unders so a reliance on the away team's goal trends. only 2 of last 6 home matches were over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in last 6 and in 8 of last 9 matches - superb stuff hints that they score at home, they should win, and opens the match up to a win to nil. Have failed to score in 5 matches this season, and importantly for us, 4 of those matches were away from home.
STREAKS - 6 match home winning streak. 10 at home without a draw.No goal conceded in 4 at home, and 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - DROGHEDA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLLWWL - look at the wins -against 7th and 10th ( of 10) away from home.Lost away to all of top 6 without scoring a goal and conceding either 2 or 3 ( which ties in with Sligo's recent form without conceding a goal)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLLLLWLWLWLL - not a draw in sight.Wins against 7th, 8th and 10th and have lost home and away to all of top 6
GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have conceded in all away matches. 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals,Have conceded in all matches this season.
STREAKS - 10 away without a draw, 15 overall.Failed to score in last 2 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks an ideal win to nil match for Sligo. What do we make of the 3 recent wins in last 7 which have crept into Drog's matches? This match should not have a draw if the stats are anything to go by, which should enhance a feeling that Sligo will win, and like last 2 head to heads, without conceding. 2-0, 3-0, 2-1 for me
8pm - Brazil v Paraguay - 1.64 home - again a contrary view worth taking in this Copa America? It has certainly paid off so far. Brazil though must click into gear at some stage. 0-0 for both sides so far in this Tournament. Can we back 0-0 again as a trade? 2009 saw a 2-1 win for Brazil after going a goal down.
600 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Lesotho, 9/2 Well Wishes, 13/2 Baltic Fizz, 12/1 Fifteentwo, 16/1 Caymana Girl, 25/1Burnwynd Spirit, 50/1 Come To Mind.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Doncaster runner-up LESOTHO is head and shoulders above the rest of those with experience,Well Wishes being the likeliest improver. The market should be a good guide to the expectations of the two newcomers.[Steve Boow]
2 debutants here - and a lesson from yesterday - either avoid 2 year old 2 place maidens with debutants in them, or decide nearer the off as is a necessity with these races. The market is very important.
415 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Brazilian Breeze, 7/2 Call This Cat, 7/1 Sovereign Secure, 10/1 Swedish Rhapsody, 20/1Choisir Fin, 25/1 Vuvuzela Boy, 50/1 Dooie Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks relatively straightforward for BRAZILIAN BREEZE who should be chased home byCall The Cat and Sovereign Secure. [Alan Sweetman]
Another maiden but this time not 2 year olds and horses with experience ( i.e. more than one run) - Brazilian Breeze could be worth risking albeit in a 2 the place race.
425 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Discression, 6/1 Sunrise Dance, 7/1 Ladys First, 7/1 Whinging Willie, 10/1 Choisan, 10/1Doyouknowwhoiam, 25/1 Noble Silk, 33/1 Dark Ambition, 50/1 Maria Medecis, 66/1 Dutch Heritage, 66/1 Regal Acclaim.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DISCRESSION looked a winner in waiting on his debut here last month and it will probably take an above-average performance to foil him. Whinging Willie may be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]
As if to rub it in, another maiden race today with a price gapper, although Ladys first is interesting now into 10/3. discression has had just the one run ( like yesterday) and there are 4 debutants.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Bayern v Qatar - 1.33 - friendly being played in Italy and if Bayern play their first team ( chock full of internationals from international sides far more adept that Qatar) this should be a comfortable win. But we must have team news.745pm - Germany (w) v Japan (W) - 1.32 home. First goal could come late. Women's football is better approached laying what you would usually back. Home advantage could see Germany through. Perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet.
745pm - Sligo Rovers v Drogheda - 1.16 home - everything points here to a win to nil for Sligo this evening.The last time I opposed Drogs they decided to win 1-2 away to Dundalk when Dundalk looked similarly dominant.
415 TIPPERARY - Brazilian Breeze is one of 3 under 14/1 but dare I trust a 5 furlong maiden race with only 2 places. Hard luck stories if a neck 3rd!
425 YORK - Discression is, yes you guessed, another maiden price gapper and a 2 year old with a single run. If I haven't learnt from yesterday, then more fool me if this one shows similar inexperience and finishes unplaced.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The horse racing is the most competitive I have seen for a long while. And the only 2 raaces of interest are maidens , one a 2 year old maiden with a horse who is strong market leader based on one run ( remind you of anything?) I cannot put these up at all ( and should not have put Poole Harbour up yesterday)
This leaves the football and bayern munich surely will have too much for Qatar ( but then Rangers should have had too much for Sportfreunde Lotto) - so team news for Bayern is a must and I cannot find any as I write. Qatar are only playing to bring attention to the World Cup. Anything approaching a strong Bayern side will muller them. But recent friendlies have shown what a dodgy betting medium they can be., They are better approached from a reactive perspective. i.e. if Qatar score first I would consider backing bayern.
Elsewhere with 2 0-0's so far, Brazil and Paraguay is wholly unappealing.
The German ladies should win easily but backers of short prices in this Tournament are likely to contract a heart attack what with swearing at how on earth she could miss from there, and why is she shooting from there?
This leaves Sligo, and based on all form, they should win, and win very well this evening . But I said the same about Dundalk the last time I put up a match featuring Drogheda. Drogheda obviously read the message and decided to conjure up a win.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
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