Friday, 1 July 2011

1/7/2011

700 BEVERLEY looks a superb probability race here, although I am not sure if a 5 furlong 2 year old race can ever be described as "superb" - 3 horses for 2 places and a 40/1 outsider, Alejandro to place would be my choice. I cannot give you any odds at present though as the market is illiquid. As ever, with evening markets, you must wait for the market to flesh out.
Argentina are hosts to this year's Copa America and face Bolivia who have not won in their last 12 away matches.

*****ONE A DAY -700pm Beverley - Alejandro to place only***** The odds are likely to be illiquid now so either place the bet at BEtfair SP now or wait for the market to flesh out up to 7pm. I would then move on to 145am - Argentina v Bolivia - back Argentina in the match odds at 1.1 or 1.11 ( bookies offer 1.11).
Always a risk that the opening match of a major tournament might catch the hosts cold. Faith in Tevez, Messi, Aguero, Higuan to conjure up something.





Watching the women's football yesterday was a painful experience. The last of the treble and it was frustrating viewing. Not wishing to alienate female readers, but the German ladies seemed hellbent on crossing the ball to the spectators in row Z. The forwards seemed happy to shoot from an average of 45 yards out, through a Nigerian defence which was 8 strong. And at 0-0 this is not what you want when a 1.04 shot is the last leg of a treble. The Germans came good with a lashed in shot from a corner and 1-0 was unnerving for the 2nd half.
Job done eventually. And those who can follow the horse racing would have seen 3 or 4 ideal betting opportunities as non runners produced outstanding place only chances.
230 HAYDOCK - Excavator 1/3 shot placed 2nd in a 4 runner race comprised a 12/1 and 100/1 horse
700 LEOPARDSTOWN became a 3 horse race for 2 places and TEnth Star was 4/9 fav and a generous 1.1 to place in the first 2 in a 3 horse listed race.
840 NEWBURY - became a 6 horse race for 3 places on Betfair and End or beginning remained favourite ( as he had when it was an 8 runner race for 3 places)

430pm - JaPS v MuSa - 1.27 home - Finland D3B league - hmm I am not sure if I can go as low as the Finnish 3rd Tier but I will have a go.
HEAD TO HEADS - none
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 14th of 14 in a league where 11 games only have been played so far.

HOME TEAM - JAPS

RECENT HOME FORM - DWDWW - last time they were in this league was in 2001? Draws against 7th and 9th both score draws. Wins against 2nd, 5th and 12th. 7-0, 2-1, 2-0.


RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWWDLWWWD - sole loss was a late 1-0 away loss to top side. Recent wins v 5th, 13th and 2nd and last match a 0-0 draw v 11th.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins , no losses, 2 draws at home, 2 clean sheets . 2.8 scored, 0.8 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 4 without a loss overall. 5 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - MuSa

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLL - draw was 0-0 v 10th. Losses 3-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 3-1 against 8th, 11th, 2nd , 1st, 6th Playing 3rd today and have already lost against 1st and 2nd without scoring against them. Infact, only 1 goal away so far this season augurs well for a potential home win to nil.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLDLDLLLLL - no wins this season at all. Losses against 2nd, 7th, 1st, 9th and 6th in their last 5 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 0 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw away. 0.17 scored and 3 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 11 without a win overall , 5 lost in a row, 6 away without a win, 5 away lost in a row.. Musa have only scored 1 goal in their last 5 matches

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks like a win to nil match if Musa continue their losing streak away from home without scoring. They lost easily against 1st and 2nd without scoring and are playing 3rd today. My knowledge of this league is precisely nil , but a speculative 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 correct score ?
515pm - New Zealand (W) v England (W) - 1.41 England - the German struggles against the Nigerian side last night should serve as a reminder that this is a poor standard of football with little technical ability and the ability to accurately pass consistently is very poor. Under normal circumstances when you see a New Zealand side in a football match, they would be opposed immediately. I would be very worried about backing England at 1.41 as the frustrations would likely continue as the match progresses ( lay England? /back 0-0?)
England have drawn 1-1 with Mexico and New Zealand lost 2-1 to Japan so far this tournament. 0-0 in October 2010 head to head might back up my initial knee jerk reaction re this match.
One I will certainly avoid thanks to the German scare yesterday.

745pm - Drogheda v Derry - 1.41 away
HEAD TO HEADS
10.05.2011PRDerry City2-0Drogheda Utd
18.03.2011PRDrogheda Utd2-2Derry City
18.09.2009PRDrogheda Utd1-3Derry City
10.07.2009PRDerry City0-1Drogheda Utd
01.05.2009PRDrogheda Utd0-3Derry City
06.03.2009PRDerry City1-0Drogheda Utd
Derry have scored 2 goals in the 2 2011 meetings thus far - indeed they were 2-0 up away before Drogs scored 2 to equalise.

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 4th in a league of 10 - 20 matches played.

HOME TEAM - DROGHEDA

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLDLLLLLW - no wins at home until last match , a 3-1 v UCD (8th of 10 in the league)
Draws against 4th ( Derry), 8th and 10th at home this season. Teams are bound to play each other more than once at home and away given this is a league of only 10 teams.Losses v 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLDLLLLLLLLWLWLWL - wins have started creeping in and 2 are away against 5th and 10th with one at home against 8th.

GOAL TRENDS 60% over 2.5 goals at home.No clean sheets at home.6 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. All home matches against the top 5 have been over 2.5 goals with Drogs conceding 4-4-3-2.. Drogs have conceded in every match this season.

STREAKS - 6 at home without a draw, 14 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - DERRY

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWWWLLDDD - wheels come off a great away start to the season with losses v 3rd and 5th and draws against 1st, 2nd ( 1-1) and 8th and 9th ( 2-2). Ties in with Drogs goal laden matches against the top 5 at home, that Derry have goal laden matches against the bottom 4.away ( all over 2.5 goals)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDDWWWDWLWWDLWDDWDD - again the draws are creeping in.Unbeaten against bottom 4 home and away winning 5 and drawing 3 - only one of the matches under 2.5 goals was a 2-0 home win.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals signals the potential for overs if meeting the right opposition. Only 2 of their last 5 matches though were over 2.5 goals.Derry have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches ( 2 matches were at home), and have failed to score in only 1 of their last 6 matches.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win.Last 3 away matches score draws.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a goals bet might be the viable option here. Drogs against top sides at home have produced all over 2.5 goals games. Last 2 head to heads were 2-0 and 2-2. Derry away against bottom 4 have produced 7 over 2.5 goals matches out of 8 .
Caveat - this is the irish Premier League and is not the best betting medium ( poor quality football and a league of only 10 teams)


145am - Argentina v Bolivia - 1.11 Argentina. Copa America begins. Expect to see Tevez, Messi et al and an Argentina side which should fully justify the odds with an easy victory. Copa America

head to heads and the last result may be explained by the sea level/high altitude difference? If you are squeamish about backing the Argies, then over 2.5 goals could be a runner here?
Both teams have had recent friendlies and I would read nothing into them at all, as the Argies recent friendlies were with weakened sides until they reached the Albania match directly before this tournament.
Argentina look to be the hosts here so that is a real boon.
and if beleived, then Bolivia are the weakest opponents in this Tournament. The Argie team has some class in it, Messi, Tevez, Mascheranno, Cambiasso, Aguero.
First match home nerves may be the only way to stop an Argentina win tonight.

In their last 12 away from Bolivia, they have lost 9 and drawn 3. In 8 of the last 12 away matches, Bolivia have not scored.

520 BELLEWSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rockview Diamond, 11/4 El Mcglynn, 3/1 Bahama Spirit, 10/1 Seastar Island, 25/1 Chocolate Hills, 33/1 Carrowbane, 33/1 She´s My Dandy, 50/1 Good Goods, 50/1 Julie Moss.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROCKVIEW DIAMOND (nap) may be frustrating some by now, but he has done little wrong to date and this looks to be his best opportunity yet to deservedly get off the mark. Both El Mcglynn and Bahama Spirit are potential improvers, with marginal preference given to the former. [Kevin Blake]

4 under 20/1 and an 11/10 favourite currently in a maiden . Rockview Diamond has 3 2nd places to his name and this looks a suitable race to place at least again surely?

700 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Quite A Thing, 9/4 Alejandro, 20/1 Triggerlo, 66/1 Brasingaman Espee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alejandro is no slouch but will have his work cut out to give 8lb to impressive debut winner QUITE A THING in what looks a virtual match.[Frank Carter]

A 3 horse race now and the outsider is 40/1. Surely Alejandro is the obvious alternative to the , erm. obvious?

300 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Panoptic, 9/2 Cheherazad, 11/2 Rohlindi, 11/2 Swift Bird, 8/1 Eclipseoftheheart, 8/1 Maharanee, 10/1 Bashama, 16/1 Crystal High, 25/1 Nafa, 40/1 Cranworth Quest, 40/1 Diamond Fay, 40/1 Titch The Witch, 50/1 Prices Lane, 66/1 Toothache.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cheherazad is a likely player if belatedly confirming her debut promise, while a few of the once-raced fillies are possible players granted normal progress, but PANOPTIC showed a bit more improvement when runner-up to a useful prospect here last month and could be ready for her day in the sun.[Steve Boow]

3 under 12/1 here but a maiden race for fillies. PAnoptic seems to be consistently progressing.


SHORTLIST

430pm - JaPS v MuSa - 1.27 home - the research points to a win to nil for JaPS but if your knowledge of Finnish Division 3 is as shaky as mine, would you want to risk it? The market on Betfair too is far too illiquid to put up as a bet( although www.bet365.com will entertain a bet on this league) at 1.16 which represent the true odds ( as for instance there is £10 at 1.21, £40 at 1.24 on Betfair)

145am - Argentina v Bolivia - 1.11 Argentina - first matches of major tournaments can often produce shocks - nerves - expectation(pressure) from home support. On paper, though, Argentina are quite simply a superb unit ( especially in attack) - a new manager and the world's best player ( albeit not quite producing the goals at international level) should ensure a win, however tight ( 1.11 usually signals goals but I would be looking for a win only due to the fact this is the first match of the Copa America.) Current odds of 1.1 sees more layers than backers at this price. Potential strike force of Messi, Higuan, Aguero, Tevez can surely conjure up a goal against a side with 9 defeats and 3 draws in their last 12 away matches. PAy no attention to the big win in Bolivia ( high altitude ), Bolivia away from the bonus of high altitude are poor.
Negatives? First man in Copa America infront of home support.

520 BELLEWSTOWN - I cannot see Rockview Diamond not placing ( in fact I think this was a previous one a dayer?) The place only odds are non existent at present - totally illiquid market.

700 BEVERLEY - what can you say - 3 horse race - 40/1 outsider - Alejandro is 1.09 to place and Quite a thing 1.02 to place. Only an injury should stop these 2 placing infront of original 66/1 shot, now 40/1 Brasingaman Espee.








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