back-lay-trade-horses-football: 23/7

Standout for me today looks to be Man Utd this evening at 1.25 currently. Their battering of an inform Seattle Sounders and 11 goals in 2 matches points to a comfortable win.
Speculators might look for a treble with Barca and Real Madrid , albeit 3 friendlies.

*****ONE A DAY - 10pm Chicago Fire v Man Utd - back Man utd in the match odds at 1.25*****

The Workforce race is compelling too, 1.45 could be a nice price. HJK Helsinki at similar odds look good as well this afternoon, but I would prefer to enter that match from a trading perspective. mazeikiai look very strong today in an illiquid market but 1.17 is reasonable. They are likely to win to nil so you could get a nice price about a 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 against Atlantas.

First day of the Scottish Season.

1230pm - Rangers v Hearts - 1.38 home

07.05.2011	PR	Glasgow Rangers	4-0	Hearts FC
02.02.2011	PR	Glasgow Rangers	1-0	Hearts FC
22.01.2011	PR	Hearts FC	1-0	Glasgow Rangers
02.10.2010	PR	Hearts FC	1-2	Glasgow Rangers
18.04.2010	PR	Glasgow Rangers	2-0	Hearts FC
27.03.2010	PR	Hearts FC	1-4	Glasgow Rangers

Hearts at home would be interesting here but Hearts at Rangers seem to lose. First match of the Scottish Premier season.
Ally McCoist the new manager. Could be a good in play match if Hearts win.
1pm - Jaro v HJK Helsinki - 1.43 away
HEAD TO HEADS

19.05.2011	D1	HJK Helsinki	1-0	FF Jaro
12.09.2010	D1	FF Jaro	1-1	HJK Helsinki
06.06.2010	D1	HJK Helsinki	2-1	FF Jaro
31.03.2010	LC	HJK Helsinki	1-3	FF Jaro
17.10.2009	D1	HJK Helsinki	1-1	FF Jaro
05.07.2009	D1	FF Jaro	0-2	HJK Helsinki

Tight vibe generally speaking? Not many head to heads away for HJK to base anything strong on trend wise.

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 1st - 16 matches played

HOME TEAM - JARO

RECENT HOME FORM -

Mon	09/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 2	Haka
Sun	15/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	KuPS
Mon	23/05/11	VEI	Jaro	2 - 0	VPS
Sun	29/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 3	Inter Turku
Mon	13/06/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	JJK
Sun	19/06/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 5	MyPa
Wed	29/06/11	VEI	Jaro	8 - 2	RoPS
Sat	09/07/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	TPS

Only 2 wins at home, markedly against 11th and 12th ( of 12) -score draws against 3rd, 4th and 8th - losses against 2nd, 7th and 9th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL -

Fri	06/05/11	VEI	RoPS	1 - 0	Jaro
Mon	09/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 2	Haka
Thu	12/05/11	VEI	TPS	1 - 3	Jaro
Sun	15/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	KuPS
Thu	19/05/11	VEI	HJK	1 - 0	Jaro
Mon	23/05/11	VEI	Jaro	2 - 0	VPS
Sun	29/05/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 3	Inter Turku
Fri	10/06/11	VEI	Mariehamn	3 - 1	Jaro
Mon	13/06/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	JJK
Thu	16/06/11	VEI	Honka	4 - 1	Jaro
Sun	19/06/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 5	MyPa
Wed	29/06/11	VEI	Jaro	8 - 2	RoPS
Mon	04/07/11	VEI	Haka	3 - 1	Jaro
Sat	09/07/11	VEI	Jaro	1 - 1	TPS
Sun	17/07/11	VEI	KuPS	1 - 1	Jaro

Only 1 win in last 9 matches was against bottom side. 6 of last 9 matches comfortably over 2.5 goals. the others were 1-1 draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 3 losses and 3 draws , 1 clean sheet at home.2 scored, 1.88 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 3 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - HELSINKI

RECENT AWAY FORM

Fri	06/05/11	VEI	TPS	2 - 0	HJK
Sun	15/05/11	VEI	VPS	0 - 2	HJK
Sun	22/05/11	VEI	Mariehamn	2 - 0	HJK
Thu	09/06/11	VEI	Honka	0 - 2	HJK
Sun	12/06/11	VEI	MyPa	0 - 2	HJK
Sat	18/06/11	VEI	Haka	0 - 5	HJK
Wed	29/06/11	VEI	MyPa	0 - 1	HJK
Mon	04/07/11	VEI	KuPS	2 - 4	HJK

6 wins and 2 losses away - not a draw in sight. Have won their last 5, 4 of the matches clean sheets. Losses against 4th and 5th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWLWWWWWWWWWW - more compelling in this format. Strong form for Helsinki - they have the winning thread which cannot be underestimated.
7 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals - 2 of the 3 remaining were 2-0 wins.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 2 losses, 5 clean sheets, 2 scored, 0.75 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 13 match winning streak. 23 overall without a draw. 6 match away winning streak, 11 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - same price as CSKA moscow the other day and could be the same result - around 2-0. Helsinki have the winning thread and have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 away. Just spanked Bangor 10-0 so in solid form.

1pm - Wehen v W Bremen-A - 1.5 home - German 3rd Division I believe this is the first match of the season so I will not be researching until some form under the belt.
3pm - Atvidabergs v Vasteras SK - 1.29 home - Swedish 2nd division
HEAD TO HEADS

11.04.2011	D2	Västerås SK FK	0-2	Åtvidabergs FF
29.08.2005	D2	Västerås SK FK	1-0	Åtvidabergs FF

Big gap in head to heads time wise
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 15th

HOME TEAM RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWDWWW - 7 of these 8 home matches over 2.5 goals.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLWWWLDLWLWLWD - not as strong overall as at home. Losses v 6th, 8th, 10th, 14th

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw at home, 3 clean sheets - 2.88 scored, 1 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 5 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - VASTERAS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLDLLLW - wins v 5th and 16th ( of 16) - losses v 3rd, 10th, 14th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDLDDWLLLLLWD - mixed bag overall for Vasteras.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw 2 clean sheets - 1.13 scored, 2.38 conceded away on average

STREAKS - 4 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Atvitabergs strong at home but poor overall. Not a straightforward match, but you would assume strong home form should see them through without losing at least.

3pm - Hull v Liverpool - 1.48 away - team news key here. Some South American absentees with the Copa America.

3pm - Mazeikiai v Atlantas - 1.17 home - Lithuanian League and 2 contrasting sides with just a quick look at the form. 6 draws in last 7 matches overall for home side and priced to win at last today! 5 draws in last 6 at home for Maz, and get this, 3 of last 4 draws were 0-0. Atlantas have lost 11 and drawn 1 0-0 in their last 12 matches, conceding 4,5,8,3,2,0,7,3,2,4,7,6. They have not scored in their last 8 matches.
Looks an ideal win to nil match this one, with the limited research I have done.
530pm - Sturm Graz v Mattersburg - 1.38 home - only 1 match played so far so a bit premature to do any proper form research.
6pm - FC Copenhagen v OB - 1.68 home - 2nd match of the new Danish season and I am quite keen to keep FC Copenhagen on my side.

25.05.2011	D1	Odense BK	3-0	FC København
17.10.2010	D1	FC København	5-0	Odense BK
08.08.2010	D1	Odense BK	2-3	FC København
01.04.2010	D1	FC København	2-0	Odense BK
12.02.2010	CF	FC København	2-1	Odense BK
06.12.2009	D1	Odense BK	0-2	FC København

Interesting goal laden head to heads and Copenhagen have won all home encounters. Last season this was 1st v 2nd but , while that might signal a potential tight match, look at the points - 81 points to 55 points.
Both sides won 2-0 in their first matches of the season.
Copenhagen won all home matches and 2 draws against 5th and 10th as well ( beat them too at home) last season.
Interestingly Odense did not win any of their top 4, losing against 1st and 3rd,drawing 1-1 against 4th and 5th. 6 losses overall away from home last season.
That is all we can really base today's match on - historical form and research as it is only the 2nd match of the season. The odds looks very tempting I must say.
730pm - Hajduk Split v Barcelona - 1.36 away - take a chance here - team news key - Copa America still on? South American key participants ( Messi in particular) missing today? Still, strength in depth should see a Barca win despite this being a friendly.
10pm - Chicago Fire v Man Utd - 1.25 away - Man Utd smashed Seattle Sounders when I expected the latter to put up a battle. So take your cues from that. They should be a comfortable back this evening.
2am - Philadelphia v Real Madrid - 1.21 away - Mourinho still at the helm and played a strong side in last American friendly. Again a perception of relative safety if backing Real today.

240 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Russelliana, 2/1 Regal Realm, 4/1 Angels Will Fall, 25/1 Betty Fontaine, 25/1 Luv U Forever, 25/1 Red Larkspur, 100/1 Miss Lahar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RUSSELLIANA can give Sir Michael Stoute a third Princess Margaret winner in 10 years by following in the footsteps of Soraaya who was successful here a year ago after finishing second in the Cherry Hinton Stakes. Regal Realm is an obvious threat with her maiden win having worked out so well.[Frank Carter]

3 under 20/1 here makes this an obvious probability bet.

430 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Workforce, 11/4 Rewilding, 11/4 St Nicholas Abbey, 13/2 Nathaniel, 100/1 Debussy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Michael Stoute has won the last two runnings and may well be on the mark again with last season's Derby and Arc winner WORKFORCE (nap), who had an excuse when flopping in this last year and is the one to beat on the balance of his form, including this month's second to So You Think in the Eclipse at Sandown. This return to 1m4f on easier ground can help Workforce find a bit on that form and he can see off Rewilding, well held in third behind Workforce in last year's Derby but an improved performer this year, including when beating So You Think here last month. St Nicholas Abbey's career is firmly back on track now but he will find this tougher then when winning the Coronation Cup last time and needs to step up on that form. [Mel Cullinan]

Superb mouth watering race this one and another 3 horse race for 2 places.

645 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Baltic Fizz, 5/1 Shout For Joy, 15/2 Arabian Flight, 10/1 Ermyn Flyer, 10/1 Flying Kitty, 10/1 House Limit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALTIC FIZZ presumably needs the ground to keep drying out having bypassed a wet Yarmouth earlier this week but she looks the one to beat on the strength of her Hamilton effort, even from the widest stall. With an excuse for her debut defeat, Shout For Joy could be next best for forecast purposes.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8/11 - - -4/1 price gapper albeit a class 6 maiden for 2 year olds - yikes

225 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Marching On, 6/1 Rocktherunway, 10/1 Celestrial, 10/1 Pearl Catcher, 14/1 Just Fabulous, 33/1 Allegri, 33/1 Shotley Music.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive event in which MARCHING ON, whose fair form is some way above that of his rivals, looks another likely juvenile winner for Kevin Ryan. Newcomer Rocktherunway looks the chief danger. [Richard Young]

2/5 - - 6/1 price gapper in this maiden

145 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Burano, 7/1 Prepared, 15/2 Entifaadha, 8/1 Paladin, 10/1 Endowing, 10/1 Protanto, 12/1 Fencing, 12/1 Uprise, 16/1 Storming Bernard, 20/1 Cades Reef, 25/1 Monymusk, 33/1 Goldream, 33/1 Jambobo, 33/1 Mubaraza, 40/1 Darrow, 40/1 Flight Connection, 40/1 Plum Bay, 50/1 Echoes Of Joy, 66/1 Highly Likely, 100/1 The Mighty Lohan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of newcomers from leading yards - Entifaadha perhaps the most interesting of them - should be checked for market support but BURANO is clearly the one to beat following his promising debut effort here. Paladin, behind on that occasion, should also improve and may well get closer this time.[Frank Carter]

5/4 - - - -8/1 price gapper but really this is a one time outer in a maiden full of newcomers.

200 WEXFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Napa Starr, 7/4 Space Race, 10/1 Casco Bay, 10/1 Ten Pinhal, 12/1 Irish Elk, 16/1 Days Of Glory, 16/1 Dirty Den, 20/1 Glorach, 20/1 Moyliss Mill, 20/1 Nana Peg, 20/1 Sarahsue, 33/1 Wheres The Exit, 50/1 Fiesty Fish, 50/1 Magical Six, 50/1 Shaftesbury Square, 50/1 Swift Accordian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straight match. With a positive run under his belt NAPA STARR may reverse Gowran form with Space Race, who was below his best last time. [Alan Sweetman]

2 horse race in this maiden hurdle!

SHORTLIST

1pm - Jaro v HJK Helsinki - 1.43 away - slight concern with the 1-1 last away head to head for HJK but looks like Helsinki have the winning thread overall and away to warrant backing at the price.

5 clean sheets in 7 away matches for HJK is very compelling.