12/7

At the odds today, I'm going to chance the slovenians against the kazaks. Hope they are fully tuned up at home , for if they are, the Kazaks should get nothing from this champions league tie

*****ONE A DAY - 715pm - Slovan Bratislava v Tobol Kostanay - - back Slovan Bratislava at 1.24 -try to place bet nearer kick off time to allow Betfair market to flesh out*****

Safer may be Shiramiyna to place followed by NK Maribar to make a 1.08+ 1.13 bet - but that relies on 2 outcomes.

Alkazim a welcome 1.34 Betfair SP in a 6 runner race for 3 places. Yes Please!

Teams that really need to win, well, tend to win! Argentina won 3-0 and clicked finally and importantly exactly when they needed to.

Slightly frustrated that I missed Millwall at a huge price against poor Irish opponents and Fairy Walk to place as well ( neck 2nd) Glad I did not go for North CEntral - a short head 4th!

1230pm - Young Lions v Tampines Rovers - 1.39 away - put off slightly by an uncanny ability to pick teams as they post anomolous results not in keeping with form. See Singapore Armed Forces recent 1-0 loss v Hougang.

HEAD TO HEADS

17.04.2011	D1	Tampines Rovers	1-0	Young Lions
30.10.2010	Cup	Young Lions	0-1	Tampines Rovers
27.10.2010	Cup	Tampines Rovers	2-0	Young Lions
04.09.2010	D1	Tampines Rovers	1-1	Young Lions
03.06.2010	D1	Young Lions	2-1	Tampines Rovers
09.03.2010	D1	Tampines Rovers	3-0	Young Lions

tampines unbeaten in last 4, but 2 Cup matches. Last 2 results 1-0's hints at laying Tampines early on for a trade incase they struggle again. 80th minute winner last time out for Tampines.

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 2nd, 17 games played v 19 games played 18 points v 42 points. A win takes tampines top today.

HOME TEAM - young lions

RECENT HOME FORM - LWLLLLWL - wins against 7th ( 3-2) and 9th (2-0) - losses against 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th, 12th. Playing 2nd today and have lost against rest of top 4 at home, albeit only 1-0 v top side with a 93rdminute winner for top side. Most recent loss at home was a 0-1 and an 89th minute winner after Young Lions went a man down early in the 2nd half. Loss to Woodlands as well was very unlucky - 1-1 at half time, Young lions got a man sent off, Woodlands missed a penalty and eventually won with an 85th minute goal.

So take note that although it looks bad for Young Lions, on occasion they have conceded late.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLLDLWWLLWW - recent good form with wins against 5th, 8th, 9th, 12th.Recent losses v 11th and 4th. Again against 4th, Albirex won 4-2 but one goal was an own goal and another a penalty - again it seems another hard luck story for Young Lions.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet - 1 scored, 2 conceded on average at home - a natural over 2.5 goals!!

STREAKS - 7 overall without a draw, and 8 at home without a draw. Note the Armed force match the other day where they lost 1-0, the draw had not come up for both sides, so this lay the draw might be a safer trade?

AWAY TEAM - TAMPINES

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWWWWWLWL - recent losses against 1st and 6th - both 2-0s. Against top side, 2 70+minute goals did for Tampines which hints that they are defensively strong, or at least could be. Against 6th, tampines got a man sent off when 1-0 down and the 2nd goal was a penalty so I suspect they could have been competitive in the 2nd half with 11 players at 1-0 down.

Wins against 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th,11th, 12th and playing 10th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWWWDWWWWWDWLWWLLW - 3 losses and 3 wins in last 6 matches.Losses against 1st, 4th, 6th

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 2 loss, 1 draws, 3 clean sheets away.1.44 scored, 0.89 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw, 3 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - beware assuming based on scorelines only. On closer inspection, Young Lions have tended to be rather unlucky. This suggests that they can be competitive for a period. It seems compelling that they are playing 2nd today, and have lost against 1st, 3rd and 4th. 3 of their home losses were to late late goals so reactive traders perhaps watch out if Young Lions are competitive coming into the 80th minute. They just might implode and be layable at short odds in the last 10 minutes?

it looks like 0-0 is worth backing early doors today with perhaps an eventual Tampines 1-0 win? Tampines away have beaten 11th and 12th and are playing 10th.

Goals trends a little skewed. Young Lions hints at straight over 2.5 goals, but head to heads show 2 1-0 's and Young Lions at home recently to top side lost only to a single 93rd minute goal.

6pm - Besiktas v SV Austria Salzburg - 1.19 home - logically Beskitas far too strong for Austrian side 4th in Regionalliga West league. Besiktas 5th in Turkish top flight. Reiterate - this is a friendly.

7pm - NK Maribor v F91 Dudelange - 1.13 home - Champions League qualifier featuring sides from Slovenia v Luxembourg. Dudelange beat Andorran side home and away in previous Champions League round but are priced to struggle today. No head to heads or collateral form so faith in the market . And remember sub 1.2 indicates an easy home win by 3 or 4

715pm - Slovan Bratislava v Tobol Kostanay - 1.24 home - Slovenia v kazakhstan in another Champions League qualifier and Slovan predicted to win with home advantage. Yek Shamesh! No collateral form again so faith in prospective stronger Slovenian league prevailing.

715pm - St Gallen v Dortmund - 1.52 away -1-1 for Dortmund last time v FC Zurich, coming from 1-0 down. Playing another Swiss side today in another friendly. They are obviously the better side, but sometimes the obvious is put on hold in friendlies. We need team news and a hope that there are no wholesale changes at half time.

8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Flora Tallinn - 1.54 home - is the Estonian league really so weak that an Irish team becomes huge odds on favourite? Flora are the top dogs in Estonia and I am unconvinced with Shamrock's odds. Bookies rarely get it wrong and may have important news re flora team? But my acknowledgement that the Irish league really is poor would be enough to take Shamrock on at the odds?

230 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Abidhabidubai, 5/4 Janet´s Pearl, 10/1 Auto Mac, 14/1 Wandering Lad, 50/1 Spin A Wish.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be fought out by the reliable pair ABIDHABIDUBAI and Janet's Pearl who are in form and are favoured by the weights, with preference for the former whose handicap form is solid and is running over her best trip.[Adrian Cook]

Auto Mac 6/1 currently and a possible hint that the horse is being backed each way incase one or both of the front 2 fail to run to form.

300 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shadowtime, 9/2 Toto Skyllachy, 5/1 Ours, 7/1 Bolodenka, 7/1 Old English, 8/1 I Confess, 12/1 American Lover, 12/1 West End Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Course standing dish Shadowtime should make a bold bid to follow up last year's success in this race after getting back to winning ways for his new yard here last time, but watch out for a late charge from OURS who has conditions to suit and whose Pontefract second to progressive Mont Ras off this mark in May looks solid form.[Adrian Cook]

9/4 - - - -5/1 in an 8 runner race for 3 places. Horses for courses? Shadow time likes it at Beverley - ALL wins have come here. And with the minimum number of runners for 3 places, surely he has a great chance again to place?

430 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Galpin Junior, 4/1 Hambleton, 7/1 Hitches Dubai, 12/1 Bossy Kitty, 12/1 Exceedingly Good, 12/1 Kalahari Desert, 12/1 Media Jury, 14/1 Duke Of Rainford, 14/1 Sea Crest, 14/1 Sleights Boy, 25/1 Lady Lube Rye.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A first-time visor can see a better effort from Hitches Dubai, who won a division of this race last year, but this ought to be a decent opportunity for GALPIN JUNIOR to build on his C&D second 11 day ago when Kalahari Desert, Sleights Boy, Lady Luby Rye and Bossy Kitty were behind.[Adrian Cook]

7/4 - - - -5/1 price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and these price gappers do tend on the whole to place. A 2nd last time and the kind of profile which might indicate a winning sequence is due at this grade.

Negatives? - these are low rated horses.

240 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 The Tatling, 4/1 Elsie´s Orphan, 5/1 Bermondsey Bob, 5/1 Mandhooma, 5/1 Peter Island, 13/2 Stonecrabstomorrow, 10/1 Highland Harvest, 20/1 Comadoir.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most eyes will be on The Tatling but he might be vulnerable after a rise in the ratings and preference is for ELSIE'S ORPHAN (nap), who looks the improver amongst these.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

God loves a trier and the Tatling is one such horse. 14 years old and a recent winner - what a class act! But I suspect he will not win. I only say this as this is an 8 runner race for 3 places. Watch the market moves and you may be able to get a good place/each way horse.

250 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Fred Fenster, 7/2 Mcmonagle, 4/1 Good Shot Noreen, 16/1 Alvar, 20/1 Ellxell, 20/1 More Than A Lot, 25/1 Go Go Nana, 33/1 Rose Garnet, 33/1 Stick On Red, 50/1 Malicious Intent.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A below-average maiden for sure and if the market speaks in favour of FRED FENSTER on his return from 11 months off, he will prove very difficult to beat. Good Shot Noreen is the pick of the remainder. [Kevin Blake]

3 under 16/1 here to dominate this maiden? Fav is coming off an 11 month layoff and I would prefer a choice between Noreen and Mcmonagle, with personal preference for the former. These 2, though, have head gear on indicating , glass half empty, a degree of desparation?

550 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Shiramiyna, 3/1 Dazzling Dream, 6/1 Comedic Art, 8/1 Zero Euro, 10/1 Kucharova, 12/1Ondeafears, 25/1 Sharnova, 50/1 Honey Queen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shiramiyma looks to be the one to beat, but if DAZZLING DREAM can belatedly build on her promising debut she will give her an awful lot to think about. [Kevin Blake]

8 runners and 3 places at a wonderful race course ( I hope to go to one of the meetings between now and Thursday). Siramiyna is not strong market leader and price gapper with Murtagh onboard. a lesson from yesterday - the market will be illiquid now so betfair Sp probably wise.

720 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Tornedo Shay, 7/2 Table Forty Six, 9/2 Valain, 7/1 Dundrum, 10/1 Dashing Ruby, 12/1Shanrod, 33/1 Urban Beach, 50/1 Warning Sound.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The authority shown by TORNEDO SHAY at Leopardstown makes him the logical choice here.Table Forty Six is suggested as best of the remainder. [Alan Sweetman]

An ideally profiled race this one. 8 runners -- 3 places - short priced/price gapper favourite - 4 under 16/1

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Young Lions v Tampines Rovers - 1.39 away -the form points to an eventual Tampines win. Young Lions have lost all home v top 4 ( playing 2nd today) and Tampines have beaten 11th and 12th away ( playing 10th today) - last 2 matches 1-0's though and Tampines odds are likely to get quite high in running and offer, naturally, better value.

6pm - Besiktas v SV Austria Salzburg - 1.19 home - a bet based on logic rather than form. Regionallalliga West team should succumb to stronger side. Totall illiquid betfair market as footy traders keep hands in pockets in these friendlies.

7pm - NK Maribor v F91 Dudelange - 1.13 home - Champions League qualifier and I think that Slovenian Club side at home should take advantage of a side from the weaker Luxembourg league. 1.13 perfectly acceptable for me.

715pm - Slovan Bratislava v Tobol Kostanay - 1.24 home - Slovenian v Kazak league - surely the Slovan team are in a far stronger league and at home again.

8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Flora Tallinn - 1.54 home - I personally would back Flora here on Betfair if liquid enough - about 6/1 better than bookies 9/2 but not much money in at moment. A throwaway bet really as Shamrock are in a poor Irish league and Flora are the top side in Estonia.

230 BEVERLEY - breaking news - Janets Pearl is a non runner - surely this 4 horse race for 2 places is at the mercy of Abidhabidubai ? The market needs to react so the odds on offer currently are all wrong . Betfair Sp advised.

250 DUNDALK - I must admit I do not like maidens in Ireland on the all weather but here we have 3 horses under 18/1 and I would opt for Wayne Lordan's Good Shot Noreen more in hope than expectation - a hope that the odds are correct and these 3 dominate. Market illiquid at present but should offer decent enough odds for Noreen.

This is an ideal each way race.

550 KILLARNEY - looks nailed on for a good run from Shiramiyna - currently 1.08 to place alas - I was hoping for better odds.

720 KILLARNEY - you should know by the now what the ideal place only/each way race looks like. Take a look at this race.

1) price gapper 4/5 - - - -5/1

2) 8 runners means 3 places

3) 4 horses under 16/1 means a hope these 4 dominate for the 3 places.

4) 2 horses at 50/1 and 66/1 hopefully will play no part so worse case this is a 6 horse race for 3 places

Surely therefore the 4/5 fav must have an outstanding probability chance of placing. Again totally illiquid betting market.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Young Lions match I will avoid as it could be tight and a 0-0 , but I expect an eventual tampines win.

Friendly featuring Besiktas is illiquid and surely a semblance of the first team will smash this lot from the Regionalliga West league in austria. I would be betting blind though.

7pm - NK Maribor v F91 Dudelange - 1.13 home - Slovenian football far healthier than Luxembourg -Champions League qualifier, expect home side when priced to do so to win to leave them comfortable for the away leg.

715pm - Slovan Bratislava v Tobol Kostanay - 1.24 home - as above but this time the Slovenian side is at home to kazak team and the odds look good with that in mind.I would deem it a great shock were Borat's boys to get anything out of this match. Always a risk when teams have never played before as style of play may just grate on the favourites, but I expect Bratislava to do the business.

550 KILLARNEY - Shiramiyna to place here albeit at a poor 1.08

720 KILLARNEY - the perfect place only race could see the 4/5 fav Tornedo shay place if the market is accurate and the niggles of a 1 mile 6 furlong race are overcome.