*****ONE A DAY 310 SANDOWN - WORKFORCE TO PLACE ONLY***** - message a little too late for Etoile at 1230. I hope this race will be dominated by So you think and Workforce and they will finish 1-2 in whatever order.
A shock draw with Bolivia now puts the Copa America on my dodgy list along with the Women's World Cup and U17 World Cup. What was it? Weight of expectation? Rabbits in the headlights (home crowd?), new manager? When you have Aguero, Messi, Tevez, Higuan, you expect ( and rightly so) a couple of goals.
I am scratching my head as to why I did not choose Rockwell Diamond yesterday at Bellewstown. 2nd on 3 occasions and won yesterday.
Alajandro was nowhere near the 1.08 I expected but placed with ease.
HEAD TO HEADSClean sweep for Etoile, not as dominant last match - perhaps away? Woodlands scored first and Etoile won with a 95th minute goal. So a shot across the bows there, or just a bad day at the office? Priced certainly yo replicate the 4 and 3 goals rather than the 2. A good chance too for a clean sheet at home, as has occured in Woodlands last 2 visits.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 12th of 12 - 29 points plays 5 points. Etoile have only played 14 matches compared to the top 4 who have played 18 matches mostly. So Etoile have been performing well to be 5th place with 4 matches less played than the top 4.
HOME TEAM - ETOILE
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWLWL - losses at home to 2nd and 10th in the league. Both scorelines 1-2.0-0 draw at home v 9th and wins against 6th, 11th (twice) and 8th. The scorelines against 11th ( nearest team to Woodlands) saw 3-0 and 2-0 scorelines - clean sheets and a possibility of setting us up with a clean sheet to nil scoreline.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLWDWWWLW - solid recent form. The losses v the same sides as above - the draw too. In 4 of Etoile's last 5 matches, they have kept a clean sheet.
GOAL TRENDS 3 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw at home , 3 clean sheets - 1.83 scored, 1 conceded at home.
STREAKS - 5 without a draw, 6 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - WOODLANDS WELLINGTON
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLLWLL - Woodlands have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 away matches. Win was 1-2 against 10th in the league. A messy match by all accounts. 1-1 halftime. Young Lions get a man sent off , Woodlands miss a penalty then score an 85th minute winner. The scoreline 1-2. Now remember that at home Etoile's losses have been 1-2 so if they are to lose today, then that scoreline will be the most obvious one.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLWLLLLL - 2-2 draw and the win we know about above. The 2-2 draw saw Woodland winning 2-1 and they scored the equaliser for Geylang.
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 7 losses, 1 draw away from home.0.22 scored and 2.44 conceded on average.
STREAKS - 8 away matches without a draw. 8 of last 9 away matches Woodlands have failed to score in.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - dare I say it but this looks an obvious win to nil match, around 2-0, 3-0 for Etoile here. If Etoile score, they should win.
2pm - Kristianstads v Oddevold - 1.34 home - Swedish Division 3 S - now my Scandinavian ventures into these lower leagues have proved very successful, so far plundering the Norwegian and Finnish leagues with some accuracy. HEAD TO HEADS2009 head to heads may not be relevant.
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 12th after 11 matches
HOME TEAM - KRISTIANSTADS
RECENT HOME FORM - DWDDW - last 2 draws 1-1 and 2-2 v 2nd and 5th Wins against 9th and 10th in the league both 3-2 scorelines. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals ( the other 1-1)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWDDDLWLD - losses against 6th and 1st 1-0 and 2-0, and in each match the opposition scored a 90th minute goal with the 1-0 loss being an 86th minute penalty and the scoreline v top side 1-0 until the 90th minute.
GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, no losses, 3 draws, 1 clean sheet.1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded on average at home.
STREAKS - 5 at home without a loss.
AWAY TEAM - ODDEVOLD
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLL - wins 1-3 and 1-5 against 13th and 14th. Losses against 3rd, 6th and 8th. Too much to handle and a good sign for 7th today?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWWDWLLDLL - wins against 13th, 14th as you know and 11th.. Wins only against bottom 4 ( of which Oddevold are one)
GOAL TRENDS - last 4 away matches have had 4,6,4,7, goals in them.2 wins, 3 losses, o draws.0 clean sheets.1.8 scored, 2.6 conceded on average away from home.
STREAKS - 5 without a win overall, 5 without a draw away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it seems Oddevold only do their winning amongst their own ( bottom 4) and are vulnerable elsewhere. Perhaps goals an angle in today? 3 of Krist's last 4 home matches over 2.5 goals and Odds last 4 away matches over 2.5 goals. Only 11 matches played though and the more matches we have the stronger the sequences.
HEAD TO HEADS
5 of 6 head to heads decided by a single goal. Kalmar have certainly been dominant winning 5 and drawing 1.Last 2-1 home win saw an 84th and 93rd minute winner for Kalmar - less impressive than the scoreline suggests.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 15th
HOME TEAM - KALMAR
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWDW - wins against 2nd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 11th, 12th and draw v 4th was a 0-0
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLWLWWWLWDLWW - the losses creep in away from home.Draw and loss away to 2 of the bottom 3 ( and Trell are 2nd from bottom)
GOAL TRENDS - 43% over 2.5 goals at home.Only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals, but those 2 matches were last 2 matches, 2-1 wins against 5th and 13th.. Kalmar have conceded in last 3 matches. Kalmar have scored 2 or more in 5 of 7 home matches.
STREAKS - 7 at home without defeat, 3 overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - TRELLEBORGS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDWDLL - wins against 4th and 14th , losses against 1st, 5th and 8th and draws against 10th and 16th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDWWWDLLLLL - 5 match losing streak. Winning sequence saw wins against 3rd ( home), 4th, 11th and 13th. Losses against 12th, 8th, 9th, 1st, 6th comprises the 5 match losing streak.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% over 2.5 goals away from home.Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals Have conceded in all of last 6 matches and conceded in 12 of 14 matches this season.Have scored in 12 of 14 this season.
STREAKS - current losing streak of 5 and consequently no draw in 5.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.46 relays a degree of confidence in Kalmar eventually winning, albeit not impressively. I suspect it could be another 1 goal win for them 1-0, 2-1, that kind of thing. 6 wins and a draw at home for Kalmar where they scored 2 or more in 5 of 7 home matches. WIns away for Trell against 4th and 14th - a 2-1 win against 4th any concern playing 3rd today? Have conceded and scored in 12 of 14 matches - a naturalised over 2.5 goals and perhaps an added hint that if Kalmar do win, it could be 2-1
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads relays the message that one of these is promoted /relegated?LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 11th
HOME TEAM - KVIK HALDEN ( sounds like a Norwegian actor)
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWW - loss against top of the league, draw 0-0 v 3rd in the league and wins 3-0, 3-0, 6-1 against 9th, 12th and 8th, remember they are playing 11th today.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDLWLWWWWD - 7 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals with 1-1 the only exception ( last match) - have scored 5,3,3,6,1 in last 5 matches. Have beaten 13th, 12th and 10th 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 without conceding as you can see.
GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, 3 clean sheets, 2.6 scored, 0.8 conceded on average at home.
STREAKS - 5 overall without a loss, 3 match home winning streak, 4 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - LEVANGER
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLL - 3-1 win against 3rd not as impressive as it sounds.1-1 in the first half. Opponents got a man sent off 90th minute and Levanger scored 2 goals in 91st and 95th minute, This should not alarm us at all .Losses against 10th, 5th, 1st and 9th. 8 of Levanger's last 9 away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Last 2 losses were 3-2 scorelines.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLWWDLWLL - wins against 14th ( bottom), 3rd ( explained above) and 7th( a 1-0 win)
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win ( v lucky), 4 losses, no draws - no clean sheets, 1.6 scored and 2 conceded on average - the goals scored away average is quite a surprise
STREAKS - 5 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - goals look to be on the menu as far as form analysis is concerned. 7 of Kvik's last 8 matches over 2.5 goals and Levanger score an average 1.6 away and concede an average 2 away 8 of Levanger's last 9 matches away have been over 2.5 goals.
5pm - USA (W) v Colombia (W) - 1.12 home - USA are the only side who can beat Germany. And watching Germany this World Cup, they are way below par and not scoring their bucketloads. You have seen, I hope, that these short prices are simply layable.
HEAD TO HEADS4 and 3 scored in 2011 already , one in a friendly.
LEAGUE POSITION 10th of 10, v 3rd.3 points v 32 points. Again the angle in must be a goals bet or a correct score bet.
HOME TEAM - RECENT HOME FORM- AJAX - LLDLLLLD - 0-0 v 7th and 2-2 v 9th -all goals in the 2-2 scored after 72nd minute. 26 match run at home without winning in the Estonian top flight ( comprising 2007 matches and current 2011 matches)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLLLLLLLDL - 2 draws as above. - 6-0, 3-0, 3-0 scorelines home and away against top 2 sides - Levadia are 3rd.
GOAL TRENDS - 0 wins, 6 losses, 2 draws, 1 clean sheet 0.5 scored 3.13 conceded on average - again a naturalised 3-0!
STREAKS - 19 overall without a win. 8 at home without a win.
AWAY TEAM - LEVADIA
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWWWWDD - draws against 8th, 3rd and 4th - last 2 draws were 1-1's and against top 4. Recent win against 9th was 1-5 away
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDDWLWWWWWWDDDW - draws against 3rd, 4th and 6th. Should cope surely with bottom 2? recent 2-2 draw v unlucky as opponents scored an equaliser in the last few minutes.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 0 losses, 3 draws away from home, 3 clean sheets. 2.14 scored, 0.57 conceded away
STREAKS - 11 away without a loss
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - whether Levadia win or not is not in dispute, what we are interested is in how convincingly they win. Win to nil? 3-0 looks the most recurring scoreline and perhaps add 4-0, 4-1 as a safety net? 1.2 over 2.5 goals will likely rely on Levadia scoring 3. The market is extremely poor.
WIMBLEDON
620 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Royal Reveille, 7/2 Zagman, 6/1 Witness Belle, 8/1 Carbon Credit, 8/1 Mighty Snazy, 10/1 Bingo Lady, 10/1 Windwood Lad, 14/1 Milderina, 16/1 Lucky Loch, 20/1 Miss Mercedes, 33/1 Paddy Mo, 50/1 Clan Cora, 50/1 Current Example, 50/1 Kelsey´s Girl, 50/1 Luso´s Girl, 50/1 Quivvy Castle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL REVEILLE [Nap] was well-fancied to get off the mark when stepped up to 3m at Punchestown in May and the father and son combination of Ted and Ruby Walsh merit another chance with Barry Connell's 6yo over the 109-ratedZagman and the consistent mare Witness Belle. [Brian Fleming]
Ted and Ruby on the market leader. Ruby did well getting Winston Churchill ( the horse) placed in a similar big field maiden hurdle at this venue yesterday, with front running tactics ( presumably to avoid possible traffic problems?)
820 BELLOWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Incas Article, 7/2 Donatis Comet, 4/1 Bless N´ject, 8/1 Dingaling, 14/1 Humbert´s Advance, 16/1Foley Firth, 20/1 Khaleesi, 20/1 Mullaghwillin Boy, 20/1 Superstar Status, 50/1 Callums Bay, 50/1 Swift Accordian.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Incas Article made an encouraging start to her career when she justified good support at Clonmel last month and Gordon Elliott's Definite Article mare is likely to have her supporters again but Down Royal winner DONATIS COMETshades the verdict for Pat Martin and Jason McKeown with Bless N'ject not without his chance under Katie Walsh. [Brian Fleming]
4 under 16/1 currently makes the Nina Carberry ridden Incas Article interesting here.
540 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dictionary, 2/1 Pantella, 9/2 Guinea Seeker, 13/2 Missile Attack, 14/1 Cottam Stella, 25/1Donnywardsbird, 25/1 Media Jury, 40/1 Indigo Sands, 66/1 Ingenti, 66/1 Lovely Lynn, 100/1 Mrs Medley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pantella is very solid given she has the best 5f form on offer and has run her two best races at this track but DICTIONARY gives the impression he's worth a crack at this distance and makes particular appeal as he's the only runner who has strictly progressed with each outing.[Steve Boow]
5 under 33/1 here makes this an interesting maiden race. Pantella probably the choice for me simply based on the fact this is the horse with the experience.
250 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Vita Nova, 7/2 Gertrude Bell, 5/1 Eleanora Duse, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 8/1 Dorcas Lane, 16/1 Fork Handles, 50/1 Bilidn.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VITA NOVA (nap) looked destined for bigger things when running away with a Newmarket handicap on her reappearance and although she found one too good here last time, that only served to enhance her reputation. Polly's Markand Gertrude Bell are likely to give her most to think about.[Paul Smith]
13/8 - - - -7/2 price gapper in group company. 5 under 33/1 for 2 places.
500 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Eland Ally, 4/1 Gottcher, 4/1 Royal Bajan, 6/1 Mandy´s Hero, 10/1 Melodize, 14/1 Ballinargh Girl, 20/1Ice Trooper.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Royal Bajan is going the right way and might have more to offer, while Gottcher is another to consider despite his tame effort last time. ELAND ALLY could be the one to beat though, with his latest second a career-best performance and the return to 5f likely to be in his favour.[Paul Smith]
Now 7 runners for 3 places may give us a glimmer of a probability bet although I do not like betting price gappers in standard handicaps. 5 under 14/1 may give us an argument for 5 horses for 3 places?
710 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Impassive, 11/2 Rougini, 6/1 Nude, 8/1 Phoenix Clubs, 25/1 Colourful Event, 33/1 Empressive.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's no real temptation to see beyond IMPASSIVE, who shaped with considerable promise in a decent Warwick maiden and having gone off favourite that day is clearly well thought of.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Price gapper, albeit 2 places on offer. 2 year old maiden and Impassive is now 1/3 to win. Only 1 run for Impassive.
310 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 So You Think, 13/8 Workforce, 8/1 Snow Fairy, 33/1 Sri Putra, 100/1 Confront.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All the money this week has been for So You Think to recoup Royal Ascot losses but WORKFORCElooked as good as ever when winning the Brigadier Gerard Stakes over C&D on his return and will be a tough nut to crack.[Adrian Cook]
Should be a cracking race and a return to dependable high class horses. 3 under 33/1 and this should be Workforce and So you think.
SHORTLIST
1230pm -
Etoile v Woodlands Wellington - 1.12 home - I know that we will get bitten on the bum if we continuously oppose Woodlands but Etoile at home, with 4 matches in hand, should do the business.
3pm - Kvik Halden v Levanger - 1.37 home - a bet spoiled by the illiquid betfair markets - over 1.5 goals my call here but there's no money in the markets.
540 BEVERLEY - a choice between Dictoionary and Pantella here to place in a race where 5 are under 33/1
710 NOTTINGHAM - Impassive is an appealing 1.15 to place , which for a 1.39 win only price is fairly appealing. Only a 1 time outer though in a 2 year old maiden .
310 SANDOWN - surely we can place our faith in 2 outstanding horses in So you think and Workforce - they should finish 1-2 in whatever order. Ryan Moore was on So you think last time out, but is now on Workforce. Hmmm! 1.3 to place is very appealing for the latter.
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