*****ONE A DAY - 600 KILLARNEY - Alkazim to place only - try to get around 1.17 - place bets late or use Betfair SP - 6 runners paying 3 places and 4 under 14/1 we hope will dominate - best probability race by a mile*****
Starlight Walk's race could reward speculators. 4 under 33/1 so surely 2nd fav Fairy Walk has a great chance of placing at 1.67 currently and nice odds too.
Good research, bad decision making. Obviously Umea v Hammarby was the stronger bet yesterday with Hammarby not scoring away in 5 matches.
4pm -
Al Wihdat v Manshia Bani Hassan - 1.36 home - the Jordania Shield Cup and I am afraid it is a new one on me! With scorelines for both teams of 2-0, 5-1, 3-2, 4-1 in Shield Cup matches in July, perhaps we could logically opt for over 2.5 goals here ( and speculators go for over 4.5 goals) -likely to be an illiquid market I am afraid as Betfairians are not familiar with this.
HEAD TO HEADS
Head to Heads are a little too tight for me to proclaim 1.33 a realistic price for JJK.In the league since 2009, 1-1, 2-1 RoPS, 2-1 JJK. The only characteristic here is that both teams have scored.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 12th of 12. after 13 matches - 24 points v 11 points.
HOME TEAM - JJK
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWD - looks good until we go back a year or so - this superb run follows a period where JJK lost 13 of their last 18 matches at home, winning only 2. They must be fired up this new season as the form has changed beyond recognition. 1,4,2,2,2,2 scored in this winning streak.WIns against 8th, 6th, 9th, 11th, 5th and playing 12th today. Draw against 7th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWWLWDWLDL - only 2 wins in last 7 matches. Last 3 losses have come away to 1st, 2nd and 8th.Draws against 7th and 10th.
GOAL TRENDS 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 clean sheets at home 2.17 scored 0.83 conceded on average at home.
STREAKS - 11 at home without a loss in all competitions.
AWAY TEAM - RoPs
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLLL - 16 losses, 2 draws and that sole win in last 19 away matches. 14 of those matches over 2.5 goals and 4 others had 2 goals in them. This season,. 6,1,4,2,6,10 the number of goals in those 6 matches.Losses against 7th, 6th, 1st, 10th , draw against 5th and win against 8th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWLLDDLDLD - that win as above. Draws against 5th, 4th, 9th, 11th and 5th again. Losses v 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th ,10th and playing 3rd again (away )
GOAL TRENDS 1 win, 4 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet, 1.67 scored, 3.17 conceded on average away
STREAKS - 8 games without a win.3 away without a win, 5 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads predict a tight match today but recent form signals the match should go with the odds.JJk unbeaten at home this term, RoPs terrible away generally -16 losses in last 19 matches. Safety? Could be neutral goals bet as both teams tend to score against each other.
530pm - SCR Altach v First Vienna - 1.41 home - last match played was 24th May in the league and a restart now on 11th July? I am a bit confused - is this the new season? If so, we need form to do any research so I will shelve this one. HEAD TO HEADStight enough when Halmstads visit - 1-0 to either side in their last 2 meetings.
LEAGUE POSITION -6th v 16th of 16 -26 points v 7th. A win takes AIK provisionally joint 2nd on 29 points.
HOME TEAM - AIK
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWW - loss v 4th, wins v 1st, 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th., 15th. The wins against 13th and 15th both 3-0
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDWLWLWLLWLWWW - losses away to 3rd, 5th, 7th and 14th and home v 4th Wins Beat Halmstads last match 1-3 away and are not playing them immediately in corresponding fixture.Halms took the lead with a penalty
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs at home. 71% clean sheets at home a solid enough foundation and remember Halmstad's only goal last match was not from open play but from a penalty.Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.3,2,1,2,0,2,3 scored at home by AIK in their matches, 3 against bottom 4 sides at home.
STREAKS - 7 at home without a draw, 2 match home winning streak, no goal conceded in last 2 at home.
AWAY TEAM - HALMSTAD
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLDL - sharp contrast with AIK at home.Losses v 1st, 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th and 13th and draw was a 0-0 v 14th. Conceded 2 goals in 3 matches and 3 goals in 3 matches. Scored in all defeats against the top 8 sides.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLDLLWLLDDLLL - only one win was 1-0 home win against 14th. 5 losses and a 0-0 home draw v 3rd against top 6, conceding 3,2,2,3,2 home and away.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% over 2.5 goals away.Average 2.14 conceded away.Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 7 away without a win.7 overall without a win
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the 2-1 , 3-1 scoreline recurs here where Halmstad are concerned, and they are normally on the wrong side. Slight concern with the recency of last defeat ( teams can quickly alter tactics after playing same opponents so recently.)
Home form and away form starkly contrasting. Signals a home win but how important is the head to heads which points to a very tight match when Halms come to AIK ( 1-0 and 0-1 about as tight as you can get) So decide between head to heads or most recent form which should point to a 2-1., 3-1 home win
That's all we need to see! Another 0-0, albeit in a friendly. This is now a must win for the Argies after a 1-1 and a 0-0. Costa Rica lost 1-0 to COlumbia and beat Bolivia 2-0. On current form, you would lay the Argies all day, but surely they will click at some stage? New manager must be shocking if he has only got one goal from such a talented squad.
young Boys are playing West Ham and the Hamsters are a juicy 4.4 but that probably signals that the front line will be led by Sir Trevor Brooking.
Shelbourne host Millwall and quite honestly Millwall should win so easily but at 1.91, the odds recount that this is a friendly
400 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 North Central, 4/1 Shunkawakhan, 5/1 Red Scintilla, 6/1 Drive Home, 6/1 Honest Buck, 20/1 Anthemion, 20/1 Sheedal, 25/1 Craicattack, 25/1 Walleyd, 33/1 Billy Cadiz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As in the first division, convincing profiles are fairly thin on the ground. It's not difficult to side withNORTH CENTRAL who ran well off this mark at Catterick last week and, having pulled nine lengths clear of the third, seems set to go up a fair bit in the weights once reassessed. Red Scintilla and the relatively unexposed Honest Buck are suggestions for the shortlist.[Steve Boow]
Interesting profile. 5 under 25/1 and a price gapper favourite. Probability wise, surely North Central has a great place only chance if the market is accurate.
220 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Starlight Walk, 7/2 Fairy Pose, 15/2 Mia Madonna, 8/1 Handles For Forks, 14/1 Blazing Field, 16/1 Perfect Rapture, 25/1 Lady Of Burgundy, 33/1 Delight Of The Eye, 33/1 Ultimate Best.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARLIGHT WALK (nap) sets a decent standard on her latest second in quite a well-contested Newmarket handicap and can gain a deserved first win, with potential improver Fairy Rose readily preferred as the main danger.[Mel Cullinan]
4 under 33/1 and surely 2nd fav of interest here at a better price?
320 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Dreams Of Dawn, 3/1 Miss Elegance, 12/1 Zee Zee Dan, 16/1 Dimaire, 20/1 Nafa, 25/1 To Pack, 28/1 Simpulse, 33/1 Lucky Tricks.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DREAMS OF DAWN showed a good deal of promise on his debut in a much better maiden than this on his debut at Newbury in May and should be hard to beat on that form unless newcomer Miss Elegance - who almost picks herself as the main danger such is the paucity of the opposition - is a fair bit better than average.[Mel Cullinan]
8 runners, 3 places, short priced fav but a one time out maiden. BUT Hugh Bowman onboard.
600 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Alkazim, 4/1 Plutorius, 5/1 Jimtown, 6/1 Galilean Rebel, 8/1 Lady Geronimo, 10/1 Custom Cut, 12/1 Coppertop, 33/1 Zambezi Tiger.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALKAZIM (nap) shaped nicely on his debut at Limerick and he should improve enough to win this. Plutorius looks to be his main danger. [Kevin Blake]
Now a 6 runner race for 3 places I hope? A 2 year old maiden where 4 are under 14/1
900 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Laganbank, 2/1 Ahyaknowyerself, 13/2 Mountain Retreat, 14/1 Bill The Yank.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match on paper and LAGANBANK has stronger overall credentials than recent Wexford winner Ahyaknowyerself. [Alan Sweetman]
2 horse race?
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Johnny Hancocks, 3/1 Eternal Youth, 3/1 Justbookie Dot Com, 17/2 Maggie´s Treasure, 20/1 Lois Lane, 20/1 Turn The Tide, 25/1 Inde Country, 40/1 Pickled Pumpkin.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Few with serious claims, and unless Maggie's Treasure and Justbookie Dot Com are greatly inspired by the first-time blinkers it's not hard to envisage JOHNNY HANCOCKS recording a fourth career win over 5f back down in grade. [Jeremy Grayson]
10/11 - - - -5/1 in this 8 runner and 3 places race.
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Balti´s Sister, 11/4 Fast On, 3/1 Invincible Dream, 8/1 Russian Bullet, 20/1 Liquid Sunshine, 33/1 Dubar Way, 33/1 Monty Fay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outcome may well depend on whether BALTI'S SISTER, who has sound form claims on her promising debut run, can put a disappointing subsequent effort behind her. Fast On appeals most of the others.[Frank Carter]
4 under 20/1 here for this maiden and Fast On takes over favouratism.
SHORTLIST
430pm - JJK v RoPS - 1.33 home - the footy today is difficult - do we go with recent form over head to heads? 1.18 over 1.5 goals is tempting here.
6pm - AIK v Halmstads - 1.4 home - head to heads at AIK last 2 meetings were 1-0 and 0-1, but last 2 head to heads were away at Halms and AIK won 2-1 and 3-1. In fact both sides ' last match was the 1-3 away win for AIK. This is about as recent as you can get form wise. Will it point to a home win or with Halms have learnt and taken evasive action? 2-1, 3-1 recurs though where Halms are involved and it looks another home win.
145am - Argentina v Costa Rica - 1.19 home - teams that must win, generally do , erm, DRAW! 2 draws on the trot now and really poor showing by Argies. They simply must win this evening and as the pressure cranks , will we see a response?
400 AYR - 5 under 20/1 and a 6/4 - - - -5/1 favourite so surely North Central has a great chance of finishing in the first 3 - 1.32 to place tells you it is a handicap.
220 FFOS LAS - 4 under 33/1 and Starlight Walk is 1.05 to place. Obvious contender. But, in this maiden, if this market is accurate, then surely one of the other 3 under 33/1 will be value to place? I would go with Fairy Pose simply as the 2nd fav - 1.67 currently though - this is a one time outer who was 6th at 33/1 last time out and now 2nd fav.
Fav, Starlight Walk, is 322 in 1 mile 4/5 races and can we risk a win only at 1.42?
600 KILLARNEY - 6 horses and 3 places and default to fav - Alkazim is obvious and a currently generous 1.18 to place with Plutorius representing Aidan o'Brien.
620 WOLVES - it may be a seller but Johnny Hancocks looks likely to place - 10/11 - - -- 5/1 and one of 5 under 20/1, 3 under 11/1 and around 1.17 to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
430pm - JJK v RoPS - 1.33 home - 1.18 over 1.5 goals.
400 AYR - North Central looks strong here given the odds of this race and 1.32 to place is a good price.
600 KILLARNEY - 6 horses and 3 places - the best probability race of the day with 4 under 16/1
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