The 215 Newton Abbott will see Verte Goodwood put on a good show, but as this is about relatively safe bets, the obstacles have done for me on more than one occasion ( even with horses as reliable as Kauto Star)
This leaves the evening racing and I think I will do an update at around 815pm for the 840 Windsor and 9pm Roscommon races.
A poor Monday and missing any semblance of interesting football .
******ONE A DAY - UPDATE ON BLOG ONLY AT 815PM www.cliveoneaday.com password stable634*******
THe lay of Djokovic was, erm, never in doubt, as Nadal won a set. The odds of 9 reduced to 8.4 to lay which was welcome to layers. The football saw 0-0 in Ekranas and Brazil matches - now you see why I insisted upon a 0-0 insurance bet.
MATCHES NOT IN PLAY BUT OF INTEREST
4pm - Alania Vladikavkaz v Volgar-Gazprom - 1.22 - Russian Cup match featuring 2 sides from the same league and normally with cup matches I like gulfs in leagues. Volgar's last 5 matches have seen 3 1-0's, a 0-0 and a 1-1 which might signal a tight match. At any rate, I do not think this match is readable as it is a Cup match.
230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pride And Joy, 15/8 Tones, 7/2 Copper Falls, 7/1 Picura, 20/1 Get The Trip, 33/1 Monessa.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRIDE AND JOY didn't shine in difficult circumstances at Royal Ascot last time, but he finished less than 2l behind subsequent Coventry fourth Lethal Force in a Goodwood maiden on his second start and has strong claims back in this company. The one feared most is Tones, who gained some valuable experience here when third on debut, and could improve significantly on his second outing. [David Moon]
Now down to 6 runners and 2 places, what is eyecatching is the sight of Ryan Moore for Richard Hannon on Tones. This is, though, a 2 year old maiden on an undulating track which some of these newcomers might find uncomfortable.
330 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Starbound, 100/30 Powder Keg, 11/2 Magic Maid, 10/1 Mister Ben Vereen, 16/1 My Mate Les, 20/1 Habsburg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARBOUND has an official mark of 76 and should be able to cash in on a good opportunity for a yard which is 4-8 with 3yos at this track in the last five years. The main danger is Powder Keg, who showed improvement when third at Ripon last time and should progress again stepped up to 1m. [David Moon]
Only 2 under 14/1 in the live betting and Ryan Moore appears on another fancied horse in Starbound. 2 places again.
500 BRIGHTON
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With respected front-runners Bobby's Doll and Spic 'N Span involved this could be fast and furious which could set it up for a closer, and very well handicapped LITHAAM gets the marginal vote ahead of recent course runner-up Talamahana.[David Moon]
8 runners down to 6 runners and there are 2 horses at 10/1 and 25/1 and there are still 3 places at Betfair. 5 furlong handicaps not quite top of my list, but surely original market leader will have a better probability chance of placing in the first 3?215 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Verde Goodwood, 9/4 Miss Tenacious, 11/4 Our Guardian Angel, 8/1 Caravan Queen, 14/1 Daneva, 14/1 Fairy Trader, 100/1 Charlotte´s Ball, 100/1 Polly Adler, 100/1 Swift Research.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The door might finally open for VERDE GOODWOOD, who is one of the few serious options on form and she will stay the trip, which is a worry for Miss Tenacious. Our Guardian Angel may prove most troublesome.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger which should make this a 6 runner race for 3 places. 4 under 14/1 should hopefully dominate so Verte Goodwood should have a good chance of placing at 13/8. As this is a 2 mile 6 f furlong, we would want a clear round over these hurdles.
900 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mundher, 9/2 Pure Greed, 6/1 Leaves You Baby, 8/1 Rodriguez, 10/1 Aiseiri, 10/1 Soul Train, 12/1 Sobrando Lodge, 20/1 Affair Cheval, 20/1 Thebarberkelly, 25/1 Lisselan Grace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks straightforward for MUNDHER who may be given most to do Leaves You Baby and Pure Greed. [Alan Sweetman]
Price gapper but look at the time of this race. No point in making any comment re the betting market when there is 11 hours to go.
840 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Blessed Biata, 5/1 Fairling, 12/1 Mystery Games, 20/1 Beckfield Dancer, 20/1 Funny Enough, 25/1 Garbah, 50/1 Kublahara, 66/1 Present Laughter, 100/1 Batchworth Firefly, 100/1 Little Cottonsocks.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLESSED BIATA stands out on all known form and it will be disappointing if she can't win a race like this. Fairling is quite an interesting newcomer from Hughie Morrison's yard and she looks best of the others.[Emily Weber]
Long day for Ryan Moore as he rides at Windsor this evening. Huge price gapper in a sparce day, has been running in class 1,2,3, and now class 5.
2 under 20/1 here and Fairling is the other and the obvious value alternative but is a debutant.
SHORTLIST
No football of interest today means a reliance on the horse racing ( and let's face it you don't get any So you thinks and Workforces on Mondays.
230 BRIGHTON - Brighton + 2 years olds does not mix. The undulating track can be very difficult for 2 year olds which makes me less than enthusiastic about this race. Tones would appeal but at 1.57 to place currently, this is far from clear cut as the horse has only had one run. Of extreme appeal is the sight of Ryan Moore for Richard Hannon.
330 BRIGHTON - Starbound again has Ryan Moore onboard and you cannot ask for a better jockey on a 4/9 shot to bring it home. Slight concern this 3 year old is still learning, as he ducked out under pressure last race and runs at Brighton for the first time today. I have seen better 4/9 shots in all honesty.
6 runners, 2 places and 2 under 12/1
500 BRIGHTON - another classically profiled place only race - 8 runners down to 6 runners - still 3 places and 2 horses 10/1 and 25/1 can hopefully be discounted. This could leave 4 horses for 3 places. 3,3,4,2 for Bobby Doll in his last 4 races ( close 2nd last time out) - with a much reduced field, he could place in the first 3 again.
Bobby's Doll shares favouratism with Talamahana ( 9/4) who has 2 2nd places and was a neck 2nd at this venue over 5 f last time out.
Tough to split them, and as this is a handicap, difficult to assume both will place in the first 3 at a very unique course.
215 NEWTON ABBOTT - 6 under 66/1 should fight it out for the 3 places and Verte Goodwood looks a worthy enough favourite. I am still smarting though from my last 2 forays over hurdles, with both horses making mistakes and failing to place, so jumps selections go to the back of the queue.
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