8/7

*****ONE A DAY - 215 ASCOT - POOLE HARBOUR TO PLACE***** SHould be around 1.15/1.16 - if illiquid then use Betfair SP.

Risky bet, but this is a Hannon 2 year old, a nose 2nd on debut in a race where 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th all won next time out.

Only 2 places but 1/3 - - - -10/1 price gap. Yes all others are debutants but I am hoping this 2 year old replicates extremely compelling sole run.

Secretary of State this evening potentially safer.

2 motivated Europa teams at home won easily. Esentepe a close 3rd for place only backers and Saddlers Rock won.

745pm - Bohemians v Galway Utd - 1.12 home

HEAD TO HEADS

13.05.2011	PR	Galway United	0-2	Bohemians FC
25.03.2011	PR	Bohemians FC	0-1	Galway United
22.10.2010	PR	Galway United	3-2	Bohemians FC
13.08.2010	PR	Bohemians FC	0-2	Galway United
08.06.2010	PR	Galway United	2-2	Bohemians FC
16.04.2010	PR	Bohemians FC	2-3	Galway United

Now that's interesting! A 1.12 shot who has not beaten today's opponents at home. Infact Bohs have lost the last 3 league encounters when Galway visited.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 10th and the fact Galway have 5 points after 21 matches perhaps explains the 1.12 for Bohs, because the head to heads do not.

HOME TEAM - BOHS

RECENT HOME FORM - WLDLDLLWDW - inconsistent home form.Only 2 wins at home have come against 8th and 9th ( playing 10th of 10 today) Losses at home against 2nd, 4th, 6th and , erm, 10th!! 1-0 win for Galway earlier in the season about their only win.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWLWLWLDLWWW - 3 match winning run features 2 away and 1 home. Add to the WDW in last 3 home matches and are Boh's becoming a little more consistent? 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses ( 1st anad 4th) away sees Bohs happy on the road but not so much at home

GOAL TRENDS - 100% of home matches have been under 2.5 goals. Failed to score in 50% of home matches. 3 of last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals with the other a 2-0 win at home.

STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat. No goal conceded in last 3 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLLLLL - win was against Bohemians!!Draw was a 1-1 against 9th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - Have lost their last 15 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 70% over 2.5 goals away from home.Have failed to score in 50% of away matches. 10 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals and the 2 exceptions were both 2-0 losses.Have conceded in 19 of 21 matches this season.HAve failed to score in 10 of last 13 matches.

STREAKS - Current losing streak of 15,( 8 away).No win in 17 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Bohemians have been beaten by Galway in their last 3 head to heads at Bohemians. And Galway's only win this season was a 1-0 away to Bohemians.! But is all this shelved in receipt of the fact that Galway have lost their last 15 matches. Bohemians record at home is poor. 100% under 2.5 goals, only 2 wins at home and an argument can be made for laying them at 1.12 early on. The liability is small. But Galway have failed to score in 10 of their last 13 matches. Hmmm!

745pm - Cork City v Salthill Devon - 1.11 home

HEAD TO HEADS

22.04.2011	D1	Salthill Devon	1-5	Cork City
22.10.2010	D1	Cork City FORAS	1-2	Salthill Devon
31.07.2010	D1	Salthill Devon	1-3	Cork City FORAS
04.05.2010	D1	Cork City FORAS	1-0	Salthill Devon

Like Bohs above, Cork City struggle at home when Salthill visit. And at their website www.corkcity.net, they have a number of injuries to contend with.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 11th

HOME TEAM - CORK

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWDWWL - loss was 3-2 v Waterford - Cork had an own goal and a penalty so it looks as if they were poor in that match.Draws against 3rd and 6th -wins against 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and playing 11th today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWDWDLW - loss as above the only one in recent matches. Worse case tonight surely a draw, but how will those injuries impact performance?

GOAL TRENDS - only 1 loss in 17 matches. - 5 wins, 1 loss 2 draws at home and 5 clean sheets.2.13 scored and 0.75 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw

AWAY TEAM - SALTHILL DEVON

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLWDLL - win v 10th and draw v 7th recently - losses against 3rd 4th,, 5th, 6th, 8th and are playing 2nd today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLWDLLLLL - last 5 losses against 4th, 8th, 3rd, 9th, 10th conceding 5,4,4 in last 3 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 5 losses, 2 draws, 2 clean sheets, 0.38 scored, 1.88 conceded away on average.

STREAKS - 7 without a win, 6 match losing streak, 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - how important will that news regarding injuries and suspensions for Cork City be? That is the crux tonight. It would be a straightforward win if this niggly news was not there.

NOT IN PLAY

830pm - Anguilla v Dominican Republic - 1.11 away - World CUp qualifier - totally illiquid market

215 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Poole Harbour, 9/2 Sequoia, 10/1 Moon Pearl, 10/1 Rock Of Monet, 14/1 Gerfalcon, 16/1Aussie Guest, 16/1 Nawwaar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sequoia looks the part on pedigree and has to be respected, but POOLE HARBOUR went desperately close in a Newbury maiden that has worked out very well on his debut and can go one better with that experience behind him.[Paul Smith]

Yes, I acknowledge that this is a 2 year old maiden where only one horse has had a run. That horse was Poole Harbour who was a nose 2nd on debut, and is effectively a winner running in a maiden. 4/11 now, only 2 places and 6 debutants. A bit of a risk but looks a good Hannon 2 year old.

700 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Quite A Thing, 13/8 Ballyea, 8/1 Fanrouge, 20/1 Powerful Wind.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUITE A THING had an odds-on setback when missing the break at Beverley last week, but she has leading claims on the form of her Lingfield fast-ground win in a course record 2yo time on debut. Ballyea showed improvement when winning at Newbury last time and could put up a good fight dropped back to 5f. [David Moon]

3 under 20/1 for 2 places but another 2 year old 5 furlong race.

615 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Won In The Dark, 11/4 Powerstation, 3/1 Oneeightofamile, 8/1 Magical Memoir, 14/1Moscow Storm, 25/1 Benedict Spirit, 66/1 Dowd´s Angle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WON IN THE DARK and Powerstation dominate here in terms of ratings. Both escape penalties but aren't neccesarily the types to take short prices about although the balance of form suggests the former should be best suited by the trip. Oneeightofamile is the improver in the field and could take advantage if those pair run below par. [Alan Hewison]

Only 2 places in this hurdles race - 5 under 25/1 in the live market betting signals a 4 horse race for those 2 places.

535 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Zabarajad, 6/1 President Lincoln, 12/1 Boom To Bust, 14/1 Miss Gardenia, 16/1 Glendaragh, 16/1 Krivan, 20/1 Greasai, 33/1 Obviously, 66/1 Hawkswood, 66/1 The Reek, 100/1 Rosie Daily.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZABARAJAD was an expensive failure at Tipperary last time, but should readily make amends in this weaker contest. President Lincoln is his only danger on the form book. [Kevin Blake]

Obvious favourite but President Lincoln must be of interest, given connections, a slight shortening to 4/1 and has a string of 2nd. A 7th though 2 races ago stands out as a niggle.

635 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Secretary Of State, 7/2 Tiffilia, 6/1 Triumphant, 7/1 Mannheim, 8/1 Afraz, 16/1 Southfork, 33/1 Toms Turn, 50/1 Garaman.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aidan OBrien has a strong hand in this with Secretary Of State leading the charge, butTIFFILIA is the one that makes most appeal following her encouraging debut at Leopardstown. [Kevin Blake]

8 runners and 3 places and an Aidan O'Brien market leader who is now 4/5. 5 horses under 25/1 as I write should hopefully make this a 5 horse race for 3 places.

620 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Self Centred, 7/1 Gifted Girl, 7/1 Petaluma, 12/1 Miss Astragal, 12/1 Zamarelle, 14/1 Balady, 20/1 La Confession, 20/1 Zuzu Angel, 25/1 Better Be Mine, 33/1 Farleaze, 33/1 The Giving Tree, 33/1 Zingana.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to oppose SELF CENTRED, although she wouldn't be the first to be beaten at short odds back in maiden company following a big run at pattern-level. Gifted Girl and Petaluma look most interesting of the newcomres. [Mark Brown]

Huge price gapper here in this maiden. 4/6 - - - 4/1 currently - Petaluma is the mover. 10 debutants could, of course, be anything.

410 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Thimaar, 13/2 Eagles Peak, 8/1 Risk Assessed, 8/1 Royal Peculiar, 9/1 Strategic Bid, 12/1Dick Doughtywylie, 12/1 Line Of Sight, 16/1 Malanos, 16/1 Red Eyes, 20/1 Sohar, 28/1 Meshfi, 40/1 Ascensive.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting newcomers with plenty to recommend them on paper, with Royal Peculiarperhaps the most appealing for today although the market will tell plenty more. Great Voltigeur entry THIMAAR sets a very useful standard on form, however, and should be hard to beat if resuming at the same level as when a good third in a conditions race at Newbury in April. [Mel Cullinan]

Another price gapper in another maiden. 8/11 - -- - 4/1 and only 2 under 10/1 84 day absence and 7 newcomers! Yikes.

SHORTLIST

745pm - Bohemians v Galway Utd - 1.12 home - When GAlway visit, they tend to win, but is this negated by a now 15 run losing sequence?

215 ASCOT 0 1.16 for Poole Harbour to place is reasonable for a 1/3 shot. This is because there are only 2 places in this 7 runner 2 year old maiden - Poole Harbour is the only horse with experience, a nose 2nd on debut. A winner effectively? A Hannon 2 year old, this might just be worth the risk given the huge price gap 1/3 - - - 10/1

535 GOWRAN PARK - Zabarajad is 1.29 to win and a stingy 1.05 to place. Should of course place. Predident Lincoln an interesting place only alternative given the stable. THe 1.05 to place could for part of a 2/3 part bet?

635 GOWRAN PARK - 8 runners - 3 places - 5 horses under 20/1 makes this very interesting - Secretary of State stands out for me - as you can appreciate , so far from race time, and being an irish evening race, the market is simply illiquid.

620 NEWBURY - Self centered was an eye catching price gapper, now 4/5 - - - 4/1 in a race full of debutants.

DAVIS CUP WORLD GROUP QUARTER FINALS

Sweden v Serbia

3pm - Eleskovic v Djokovic - 1.01 match odds means a look at set betting. Illiquid market but around 1.12 could be added to Zabarajad? The odds are the same as with Ladbrokes so I would go no lower than 1.12 for 3-0 sets.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

The Irish Football is very iffy tonight- Bohs lose when Galway visit, but hang on, 21 matches in and galway have only 5 points, and have lost 15 on the trot.

Yeh, ok, but Galway's only win this season was away at Bohs, Bohs have a 100% under 2.5 goals home record, and have failed to score in 50% of home matches.

You see why this is a match for the layers ( at throwaway small liability)

And what of COrk's absentees?Will that impact on what should be a straightforward win.

215 ASCOT - yes I have had a bang on the head putting forward a one time out 2 year old in a race where the rest of the horses are all debutants.

But this Poole Harbour is a Hannon 2 year old, a nose 2nd on debut, a 1/3 - - -10/1 price gapper and 1.16 to place is reasonable ( 2 places though)

Could be worth the risk

535 GOWRAN PARK - Zabarajad is very obvious, win only? OR safety net of place only at 1.05 and add to Djokovic in the Davis Cup to win 3-0 at 1.12 ( if available on Betfair - it is certainly available with Ladbrokes)

635 GOWRAN PARK - Secretary of State looks extremely good this evening in an 8 runner race, 3 places and 5 under 20/1 No debutants to worry about here, the only concern being this is an evening race and I would like to make decisions nearer to race time.

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