Friday 29 July 2011

I would have gone with Bate Borisov today in the Belarussian league but Betfair is totally illiquid. THe German Cup matches are tempting but Mainz showed that a lack of match practice could be the worry. Western Aristorcrat and Harbour Watch for me are the 2 horses and I will go with Richard Hughes

***** ONE A DAY 345 GOODWOOD - Harbour Watch to place only - 1.2 *****




Mainz scored first and I thought that would be it, but their poor opponents managed to get the away goal. Frustrating as there were many other opportunities yesterday, and the day before saw numerous strong opportunities.

4pm - Vitebsk v Bate Borisov - 1.38 away - Belarussian top flight
07.05.2011 D1 BATE Borisov 4-1 FK Vitebsk
29.08.2010 D1 FK Vitebsk 1-6 BATE Borisov
03.07.2010 D1 BATE Borisov 4-0 FK Vitebsk
02.05.2010 D1 FK Vitebsk 0-0 BATE Borisov
24.09.2009 D1 BATE Borisov 3-1 FK Vitebsk
10.05.2009 D1 FK Vitebsk 0-2 BATE Borisov


LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 1st and 18 matches played so far.

HOME TEAM - VITEBSK

RECENT HOME FORM -
Wed06/04/11PRLVitebsk 1 - 1Torpedo Zhodino

Tue19/04/11PRLVitebsk 0 - 1Belshina

Sat30/04/11PRLVitebsk 1 - 0Gomel

Wed11/05/11PRLVitebsk 0 - 1Naftan

Sat21/05/11PRLVitebsk 1 - 3Dinamo Minsk

Fri27/05/11PRLVitebsk 2 - 1Dinamo Brest

Sun19/06/11PRLVitebsk 0 - 2Shakhtyor

Sat25/06/11PRLVitebsk 0 - 1Neman Grodno

Sun10/07/11PRLVitebsk 1 - 0Minsk
DLWLLWLLW - 5 matches at home have been 1-0 - only 2 of those wins. 2 wins against bottom 3 sides takes the gloss off somewhat

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLDLWWLLLWD - recent wins against 7th, 10th and 12th. Comprehensive losses 2-0 and 3-1 recently by 2nd and 3rd.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw - 2 clean sheets - 0.67 scored and 1.11 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 8 home matches without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - BATE BORISOV

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Sun10/04/11PRLDnepr Mogilev 1 - 1BATE

Tue19/04/11PRLDinamo Brest 0 - 3BATE

Sat30/04/11PRLShakhtyor 0 - 2BATE

Wed11/05/11PRLBelshina 0 - 2BATE

Sat21/05/11PRLGomel 0 - 0BATE

Wed25/05/11PRLNeman Grodno 0 - 3BATE

Sun12/06/11PRLNaftan 0 - 2BATE

Fri24/06/11PRLDinamo Minsk 2 - 0BATE

Fri08/07/11PRLTorpedo Zhodino 0 - 3BATE
DWWWDWWLW - solid recent form. Loss to 2nd and draws against 5th and 11th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWWDDWWWLDWW - only one loss recently

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws away - 7 clean sheets - 1.78 scored, 0.33 conceded

STREAKS - 7 overall without a loss, 4 away without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 1 loss recently for BATE Borisov puts the odds about right. 7 clean sheets away from home signals a likely replication of dominance in head to heads and a likely win to nil. 2 wins from 3 at home against bottom 2 for home side should not harm BATE Borisov. 8 home matches without a draw for home side again points towards BATE winning.

730pm - Jahn Regensburg v Mgladbach - 1.41 away - German Cup and Division 3 v Division 1
730pm -
RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg - 1.38 away - German Cup - Reginal North v Bundesliga
730pm -
Wehen v Stuttgart - 1.5 away - Division 3 v Bundesliga and another German Cup.
3am -
Brazil U20 v Egypt U20 - 1.33 home - FIFA Under 20 World CUp I think and we saw with the Under 17's and the Women's World Cup that teams reknowned in footballing circles may not reflect such dominance in these lower age group tournaments.

320 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Snow Blizzard, 13/8 Art Broker, 15/2 Nicholas Pocock, 9/1 Lion Road, 12/1 Bhaltair, 50/1 Poor Prince, 66/1 Christophers Quest, 66/1 Point Of Reference.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both the leading contenders sport cheekpieces which is an indication that neither may be entirely straightforward. ART BROKER is just preferred to Snow Blizzard, despite having to concede weight all round.[Jonathan Neesom]

5 under 33/1 here so good probability race if there are no jumping problems amongst the main protagonists.

505 BATH

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Uncle Roger, 5/1 Gadreel, 11/2 Key Addition, 9/1 Emerald Smile, 12/1 Trending, 25/1 Our Cool Cat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNCLE ROGER can make amends for last week's mishap.[Paul Johnson]

Big price gapper in this maiden unseated rider last time. Trust this 2 year old to put best foot forward?

540 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Catamount, 7/2 Makalali, 6/1 Kingdomforthebride, 10/1 Dragon Khan, 12/1 Love Is The Key, 16/1 Crazylittlething, 20/1 The Tally Ho Kid, 50/1 Sweet Annathea, 66/1 Green Alligator.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tommy Stack runs three in this auction maiden and the consistent Makalali looks the pick of the stable trio but preference is for Kevin Prendergast's dual runner-up CATAMOUNT to make it third time lucky with Kingdomforthebride also capable of reaching the frame again. [Brian Fleming]

2 2nd places for Catamount should see him consistent

725 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Harangue, 7/2 Monte Carlo, 7/2 Zarzal, 4/1 Sam Bass, 33/1 Blue Eyed Bandit, 33/1 Lazarian, 50/1 Key Account, 66/1 Brookley Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The gelded HARANGUE looked no star on debut but he still showed enough to imply solid credentials in this maiden, which - despite the presence of some top yards - does not seem especially strong. The main foe with the potential to beat him is the once-raced Ballydoyle colt Monte Carlo. [Johnny Ward]

4 under 33/1 here in this 8 runner - 3 place race.

235 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Western Aristocrat, 5/2 Neebras, 9/2 Tazahum, 7/1 Questioning, 9/1 Chef, 25/1 Slim Shadey, 25/1 Trade Storm, 33/1 Vanguard Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Neebras sets a good standard on his very best form but preference is for WESTERN ARISTOCRAT, who stepped up markedly again when a strong-finishing third in the 7f Jersey Stakes last time and is open to further significant progress after just three starts. [Mel Cullinan]

8 runners, 3 places and 5 under 33/1 -Western Aristocrat has the ever dependable Ryan Moore onboard and is 6/4 - - -4/1 price gapper.

345 GOODWOOD


BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Harbour Watch, 5/1 Bannock, 6/1 Eureka, 6/1 Saigon, 7/1 Bogart, 8/1 Caspar Netscher, 12/1 Parc De Launay, 14/1 Factory Time, 16/1 Right To Dream, 20/1 Silverheels.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hughes could hardly be more bullish about Harbour Watch who is bidding to give both him and Richard Hannon a four-timer in this race. There is a slight question-mark over his Newmarket form, however, and BANNOCK, who already has a fine effort at this level to his name, looks a valid each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]

4/5 - - - 7/1 - someone has taken Richard Hughes' confidence onboard and smashed into this Harbour Watch.

620 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Justineo, 2/1 Grizzle, 8/1 Go Dutch, 10/1 Sandbetweenourtoes, 12/1 Philipstown, 16/1 Storm Belt, 25/1 Voodoo Rhythm, 66/1 Queens Sandridge, 66/1 Sligo Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two to concentrate on here look to be Justineo and GRIZZLE with marginal preference for the latter. His inexperience was evident on his C&D debut and he should be sharper with that outing under his belt. Go Dutch needs monitoring in the betting.[Paul Smith]

4 under 20/1 and 2 under 7/1 but can we trust maidens?

330 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Federation, 5/2 Burj Hatta, 3/1 Dean Swift, 6/1 Gulf Of Naples, 20/1 Painted Tail, 33/1 Hills Of Dakota, 33/1 Isheforreal, 50/1 Paramour, 66/1 Ellemental, 100/1 Miss Kessie, 100/1 Srimenanti.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gulf Of Naples, a half-brother to very useful miler Dream Eater, is clearly the most interesting newcomer and the betting will help with him. Similarly, it will be interesting to see how Dean Swift, a stablemate of Red Eyes, who beat FEDERATION (nap) on the nod at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago, goes in the market. Either way, Roger Charlton's half-sister to Attraction, who's progressed with each run, is the call.[Graham Wheldon]

I am quite happy to have Burj Hatta - 3232 last 4 maiden races and clear of rest into 2nd last time out.

545 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Spinatrix, 5/1 I Got You Babe, 5/1 Mazovian, 10/1 Grand Stitch, 10/1 Mawjoodah, 12/1 Downhill Skier, 16/1 Almaty Express, 16/1 Ryedane, 20/1 Divertimenti, 20/1 Red River Boy, 33/1 Uddy Mac, 50/1 Fulford.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lightly raced SPINATRIX didn't beat a lot at Ayr but she demolished them and is clearly the one they all have to worry about from the rail draw. I Got You Babe will be happier back to sprinting, while Grand Stitch and Red River Boy are possible each-way alternatives to the selection.[Graham Wheldon]

Big price gapper but I am always wary about multiple handicap winners continuing their form . An apprentice handicap too.

SHORTLIST

4pm - Vitebsk v Bate Borisov - 1.38 away - particularly illiquid on Betfair but available at www.bet365.com at 1/4 1.25

320 BANGOR - Art Broker 1.15 to place has a great chance.

540 GALWAY - Catamount out now - Makalali and Kingdomforthebride 2 of 3 under 20/1 surely the obvious placers. High draw a concern?

725 GALWAY - Harangue must have a great place chance, based really on the trainer, a certain Mr Weld ( look at the last 2 days and backing all his selections leaves a handsome profit)

235 GOODWOOD - 5 under 33/1 and Western Aristocrat for me under Ryan Moore.1.29 to place

345 GOODWOOD - Harbour Watch 1.2 to place. - The only horse under 2.5 in the place only market and Richard Hughes very bullish.


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