Thursday, 14 July 2011

14/7

P-irlot the standout for the footy but Betfair market likely extremely illiquid.
Fulham well worth a chance against inferior Northern Irish opposition. Niggles -away but that could incentivise Fulham to kill the tie off with the away goals.
Maybe at Leopardstown could be the next Ballydoyle superstar but is priced as such


*****745pm - CRUSADERS V FULHAM - BACK FULHAM IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.23**** Cover with a 0-0 if you want added insurance incase Crusaders are tough to beat, but surely a Premiership outfit with 2 competitive Europa League fixtures under their belt can do the business and kill the tie off away from home with away goals.



Easy win for Rosenborg, and a couple of enhanced bets. Maccabi Haifa went a goal down and were backable at 1.76 - superb odds for a 1.16 shot, and Malmo, a 1.08 shot if I recall, were backable at 1.24 in the 2nd half at 0-0. Both won with ease. Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd all won their pre seasons. United particularly interesting as they were 1.36. Hope that they are reliable at better odds on their pre season in U.S.and A.
Easy win for Berdych as well, and Pliny in the ideal race of the day, placed with ease.

1230pm - Etoile v Balestier Khalsa - 1.21 home - this league can be a real downer - Armed forces losing 1-0 in a match against Hougang 2 matches ago when all the research pointed to them not losing.
HEAD TO HEADS
13.05.2011D1Balestier Khalsa0-4Etoile FC (S)
25.02.2011D1Etoile FC (S)0-0Balestier Khalsa
17.09.2010D1Etoile FC (S)3-0Balestier Khalsa
16.06.2010D1Balestier Khalsa0-3Etoile FC (S)
02.04.2010D1Etoile FC (S)1-0Balestier Khalsa
21.02.2010LCBalestier Khalsa0-2Etoile FC (S)
A dominant side in Etoile in head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 9th but Etoile have only played 17 matches to the 20/21 of the leaders and balastier have played 19 . Quite clearly etoile in good heart even giving matches away! If Etoile win all games in hand, they will be 2nd.

HOME TEAM - ETOILE

RECENT HOME FORM -
Fri25/02/11S.LEtoile0 - 0Balestier KhalsaMore info
Mon07/03/11S.LEtoile4 - 2Hougang UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue22/03/11S.LEtoile3 - 0Tanjong PagarView eventsMore info
Fri08/04/11S.LEtoile1 - 2Tampines RoversView eventsMore info
Wed18/05/11S.LEtoile2 - 0Gombak UnitedView eventsMore info
Thu23/06/11S.LEtoile1 - 2Young LionsView eventsMore info
Sat02/07/11S.LEtoile3 - 0Woodlands Well…View eventsMore info
Mon11/07/11S.LEtoile2 - 0Home United

Prevalence towards over 2.5 goals. last 4 wins have seen clean sheets. Losses v first and 10th


RECENT FORM OVERALL
Thu17/02/11S.LGeylang United0 - 2EtoileView eventsMore info
Fri25/02/11S.LEtoile0 - 0Balestier KhalsaMore info
Tue01/03/11S.LGombak United1 - 0EtoileView eventsMore info
Mon07/03/11S.LEtoile4 - 2Hougang UnitedView eventsMore info
Thu17/03/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S0 - 1EtoileView eventsMore info
Tue22/03/11S.LEtoile3 - 0Tanjong PagarView eventsMore info
Thu31/03/11S.LWoodlands Well…1 - 2EtoileView eventsMore info
Fri08/04/11S.LEtoile1 - 2Tampines RoversView eventsMore info
Thu14/04/11S.LHome United0 - 1EtoileView eventsMore info
Fri22/04/11S.LArmed Forces1 - 1EtoileView eventsMore info
Fri13/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa0 - 4EtoileView eventsMore info
Wed18/05/11S.LEtoile2 - 0Gombak UnitedView eventsMore info
Thu23/06/11S.LEtoile1 - 2Young LionsView eventsMore info
Mon27/06/11S.LTanjong Pagar0 - 2EtoileView eventsMore info
Sat02/07/11S.LEtoile3 - 0Woodlands Well…View eventsMore info
Fri08/07/11S.LTampines Rovers1 - 0EtoileView eventsMore info
Mon11/07/11S.LEtoile2 - 0Home United

Only 4 losses this season against 1st ( home and away), 8th and 10th - remember they are playing 9th today so bit of a headscratcher that apparent poor form against this part of the league. The 1-0 loss v Gomback was away, and saw a 91st minute Gomback winner so I don't think we need press the panic button just yet.

GOAL TRENDS - looking at home form, and general trend is to over 2.5 goals - 5 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw, 5 clean sheets, 2 scored, 0.75 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 8 overall without a draw, 8 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - BALASTIER

RECENT AWAY FORM
Fri25/02/11S.LEtoile0 - 0Balestier KhalsaMore info
Fri11/03/11S.LGeylang United0 - 3Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Tue29/03/11S.LHougang United2 - 2Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Tue12/04/11S.LTanjong Pagar0 - 1Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Sat30/04/11S.LTampines Rovers5 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Wed04/05/11S.LHome United5 - 2Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Fri20/05/11S.LYoung Lions2 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Wed01/06/11S.LArmed Forces1 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Mon20/06/11S.LGombak United2 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Tue28/06/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S1 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Sun10/07/11S.LWoodlands Well…1 - 0Balestier Khalsa

7 losses on the trot away from home, and 6 of the 7 have seen Balastier unable to score. caution though - 3 of last 4 losses were 1-0's ( against 3rd, 4th and 12th) Remembering that Etoile are in a false position ( 3 games less played), they have the potential, it can be suggested, to replicate the scorelines of the current top 2 who both scored 5 against balastier when Balastier were visitors.
An inference here for Etoile that if they can keep a clean sheet, they should win.

RECENT OVERALL FORM
Tue15/02/11S.LBalestier Khalsa1 - 1Home UnitedView eventsMore info
Fri25/02/11S.LEtoile0 - 0Balestier KhalsaMore info
Mon28/02/11S.LBalestier Khalsa0 - 0Young LionsView eventsMore info
Fri11/03/11S.LGeylang United0 - 3Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Thu17/03/11S.LBalestier Khalsa0 - 2Armed ForcesView eventsMore info
Fri25/03/11S.LBalestier Khalsa1 - 2Gombak UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue29/03/11S.LHougang United2 - 2Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Wed06/04/11S.LBalestier Khalsa0 - 1Albirex Niigata SView eventsMore info
Tue12/04/11S.LTanjong Pagar0 - 1Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Thu21/04/11S.LBalestier Khalsa2 - 0Woodlands Well…View eventsMore info
Sat30/04/11S.LTampines Rovers5 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Wed04/05/11S.LHome United5 - 2Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Fri13/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa0 - 4EtoileView eventsMore info
Fri20/05/11S.LYoung Lions2 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Wed25/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa3 - 1Geylang UnitedView eventsMore info
Wed01/06/11S.LArmed Forces1 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Mon20/06/11S.LGombak United2 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Thu23/06/11S.LBalestier Khalsa2 - 4Hougang UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue28/06/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S1 - 0Balestier KhalsaView eventsMore info
Tue05/07/11S.LBalestier Khalsa2 - 0Tanjong PagarView eventsMore info
Sun10/07/11S.LWoodlands Well…1 - 0Balestier Khalsa

2 recent wins have been at home against 7th and 11th. Notice the number of matches without a draw.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 7 losses, 2 draws , 3 clean sheets - 0.73 scored, 1.73 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 15 overall without a draw, 8 lost away in a row, 9 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - standout ? Both sides have not had a draw in a while - lay the draw? And if the draw is unlikely, so, it would seem, is an away win? Etoile are so dominant historically, have home advantage and are playing a side who have scored in only 1 of their last 7 matches away. The 1-0's for Balastier signal trouble in attack and a lack of belief that they can hold on.
Could hint at a back of 0-0?
Etoile have played 3 matches less than their peers yet are in a healthy 5th. They could conceivably replicate 1st and 2nd who scored 5 against Balastier. I think a 2-0, 3-0 is within Etoile's reach, but again remind you that 3 of Balastier's last 4 aways have been 1-0's

430pm - P-Iirot v MuSA - 1.17 home - Finnish D3b - and I am quite familiar with this league and have been successful twice with it, and know Musa from previous research.
HEAD TO HEADS
28.04.2011D3BMuSa Pori1-4P-Iirot Rauma
29.07.2010D3BMuSa Pori0-0P-Iirot Rauma
14.07.2010D3BP-Iirot Rauma1-1MuSa Pori
Most recent head to head a comprehensive away win which tallies with the 1.17 quote today and remember today p-Irlot have the home advantage.


LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 2nd bottom( 13th) - 28 points v 6 points.

HOME TEAM - P-irlot - RECENT HOME FORM
Sat07/05/11KAKP-Iirot1 - 1JäPSView eventsMore info
Wed18/05/11KAKP-Iirot2 - 1JazzView eventsMore info
Sun29/05/11KAKP-Iirot3 - 0LoPaView eventsMore info
Sun05/06/11KAKP-Iirot0 - 0BK-46More info
Sun12/06/11KAKP-Iirot3 - 0TPVView eventsMore info
Sun03/07/11KAKP-Iirot5 - 1Ã…IFK
have not conceded more than 1 at home. Only 2 draws were against 4th and 1st, 0-0 against top.Wins against 7th, 8th, 9th , 10th and playing 13th today.


RECENT FORM OVERALL
Thu28/04/11KAKMuSa1 - 4P-IirotView eventsMore info
Sat07/05/11KAKP-Iirot1 - 1JäPSView eventsMore info
Sun15/05/11KAKIlves0 - 1P-IirotView eventsMore info
Wed18/05/11KAKP-Iirot2 - 1JazzView eventsMore info
Sun22/05/11KAKNärpes Kraft3 - 0P-IirotView eventsMore info
Sun29/05/11KAKP-Iirot3 - 0LoPaView eventsMore info
Thu02/06/11KAKTuTo1 - 1P-IirotView eventsMore info
Sun05/06/11KAKP-Iirot0 - 0BK-46More info
Sun12/06/11KAKP-Iirot3 - 0TPVView eventsMore info
Sat18/06/11KAKSalPa1 - 1P-IirotView eventsMore info
Wed22/06/11KAKTiPS0 - 3P-IirotView eventsMore info
Sun03/07/11KAKP-Iirot5 - 1Ã…IFKView eventsMore info
Sun10/07/11KAKI-Kissat0 - 1P-Iirot

Only 1 loss was away was 3-0 to 5th placed. 2 goals were scored in the 80th and 90th minutes which might flatter the scorelines.3 of the 4 draws were score draws.Draws against 1st, 4th, 5th and 12th.

GOAL TRENDS - wins at home against 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th saw a comprehensive home win with all over 2.5 goals.
4 wins, no losses, 2 draws - 3 clean sheets - 2.33 scored, 0.5 conceded at home.
STREAKS - 8 overall without a loss, 8 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - MUSA

RECENT AWAY FORM
Sun08/05/11KAKLoPa0 - 0MuSaMore info
Sat14/05/11KAKJazz3 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Mon23/05/11KAKI-Kissat3 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Wed01/06/11KAKIlves4 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Sat11/06/11KAKBK-465 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Wed22/06/11KAKÃ…IFK3 - 1MuSaView eventsMore info
Fri01/07/11KAKJäPS5 - 0MuSa

Comprehensive defeats away from home , conceding no less than 3 in their last 6 matches and scoring only 1 goal in 7 away matches. Look to a loss to nil today? Losses against 1st, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th - note losses against 1st, 3rd and 4th and playing 2nd today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM
Thu28/04/11KAKMuSa1 - 4P-IirotView eventsMore info
Sun08/05/11KAKLoPa0 - 0MuSaMore info
Sat14/05/11KAKJazz3 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Wed18/05/11KAKMuSa2 - 2Närpes KraftView eventsMore info
Mon23/05/11KAKI-Kissat3 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Sat28/05/11KAKMuSa1 - 1TiPSView eventsMore info
Wed01/06/11KAKIlves4 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Mon06/06/11KAKMuSa0 - 1SalPaView eventsMore info
Sat11/06/11KAKBK-465 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Thu16/06/11KAKMuSa0 - 1TPVView eventsMore info
Wed22/06/11KAKÃ…IFK3 - 1MuSaView eventsMore info
Fri01/07/11KAKJäPS5 - 0MuSaView eventsMore info
Sat09/07/11KAKMuSa1 - 0TuTo
Recent 1-0 win was at home against 12th in the league ( a league of 14) - as you can see, this is not the norm with Musa ( they should stick to music and concept albums rather than football I think)


GOAL TRENDS - 6 losses , 1 draw , 1 clean sheet- 0.14 scored, 3.29 conceded away from home

STREAKS - 7 overall without a draw, 7 away without a win, 6 match losing run away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - surely you can make up the conclusions here? Potential win to nil? 3-0, 4-0, 3-1 ( just incase) - given Musa's poor away form, this 1.17 is very tasty. Having just done all of this work, this match is match odds only and not in play. I would have sworn I just got the match from the in play coupon. Betfair scoundrels! Illiquid market too - the 1.17 is now down to 1.12 - perhaps a reaction to Betfair not now putting it in play.


530pm - UE Sant Julia v Bnei Yehuda - 1.18 away - Europa League today and Andorra v Israel. Maccabi Haifa were very strong ( albeit at home) yesterday and Bnei recently drew 1-1 with them in the league. Surely the Israeli league is far more competitive than the Andorran? I would prefer to see hot favs playing at home rather than away ( a slight niggle). 5 wins and 2 losses in their last 7 league aways augurs well for the travellers today.
6pm - Anorthosis v Gagra - 1.11 home. - Cyrpus v Georgia - is the Georgian league so bad that a small Cypriot league side is 1/10? Perhaps it is Anorthosis' recent runs in this competition? At least Anorthosis are at home which might be the clincher here.
6pm - Valerenga v Mika - 1.21 home - Norwegian league v Armenian and Norwegian teams will be fit and ready what with their league in full fettle.
630pm - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Khazar Lankaran - 1.21 home - the other Maccabi team in action. Israel v Azerbaijan. Surely the Azerbaijani league, like the Kazak's yesterday, is a weaker league? Tel Aviv can make home advantage count?
730pm - Juvenes-Dogana v Rabotnicki - 1.18 away - San Marino v Macedonia - and although the Macedonian league is not all that, it must be far superior to the San Marino league. Ideally, would have liked to see Rabotnicki at home.
745pm - Crusaders v Fulham - 1.21 away - a Europa League qualifier so expect the big boys out for Fulham and surely an away win against much inferior opposition. 0-0 v Runivik away last time should be put into context. Fulham won the first leg 3-0 and did not need to win, just avoid defeat 3-0 or 4-0!!!
Fulham can kill off this tie with an away win. The more they score tonight, the less worrisome will be the return leg at the Cottage.


220 CARTMEL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lava Lamp, 100/30 Heart Of Dubai, 5/1 He´s A Hawker, 5/1 Sara´s Smile, 15/2 Rain Stops Play, 16/1 Gearbox, 33/1 Politelysed, 40/1 Hooky´s Diamond, 66/1 Kayaka, 100/1 Darden Burn, 200/1 Over The Clyde.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The step up in trip should be right up LAVA LAMP (nap)'s street and he can take this at the main expense of Heart Of Dubai.[Jonathan Neesom]

5 under 20/1 and 6 under 60/1 to dominate for the 3 places? gives Lava Lamp a good probabilty chance of placing with a clear round right?

700 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Stonefield Flyer, 4/1 Pimpernel, 9/2 West Leake Hare, 33/1 Lady Nickandy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: West Leake Hare and Pimpernel are open to improvement but need to take a considerable step forwards to reach the level of STONEFIELD FLYER's Royal Ascot second. Betting interest will centre on the contest for second and marginal preference is for Pimpernel.[Frank Carter]

3 under 40/1 here and a price gapper makes this very appealing as a probability race albeit 2 year old novice stakes.


305 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sunday Bess, 5/2 Mungo Park, 3/1 Convention, 14/1 Apassionforfashion, 14/1 Rose Of Sarratt, 16/1 Cape Rising, 100/1 Snare.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUNDAY BESS clearly has her quirks but she stands out at this easier level and deserves another chance. Mungo Park should make a race of it and the potential of Convention is also respected.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8 runners - 3 places - now 7 runners and Sunday Bess and Mungo are both 7/5 with next best at 5/1

330 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dorset Square, 11/2 Brog An Ri, 11/2 Leblon, 13/2 Magical Memoir, 13/2 Omas Glen, 7/1Ghareer, 10/1 Caribbean Sea, 12/1 Billys Dream, 16/1 Capal Dubh Alainn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On the face of it the handicapper looks to have been quite harsh on raising DORSET SQUARE12lbs for a two length win at Ballinrobe but the manner of victory suggests that the 7yo should be followed off what still looks a tempting mark. Main dangers look to be Leblon, Brog An Ri and Magical Memoir. [Alan Hewison]

6/4 - - - -5/1 price gapper here in Dorset Square


535 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Maller Tree, 7/2 Absolutlyfantastic, 13/2 Brown One, 8/1 Back Load, 10/1 Gray Hession, 10/1 Limpopo Tom, 12/1 The Young Goose, 14/1 Dr Tommy, 25/1 Monkey Suit, 25/1 Our Old Pal, 25/1 Puddle Alley, 33/1Faithless, 33/1 Magic Massini.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Having finished second in a Punchestown race that usually turns up some useful prospectsMALLER TREE (nap) is very hard to oppose. One who could test him is Absolutlyfantastic, a well-related newcomer from an in-form stable. Brown One looks best of the remainder. [Alan Sweetman]

5 under 14/1 - hard to oppose?

240 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Lightning Cloud, 9/2 The Guru Of Gloom, 11/2 Big Noise, 6/1 Last Sovereign, 11/1 Piddie´s Power, 11/1 Planet Waves, 12/1 Cotswold Village, 14/1 Elusive Hawk, 16/1 Flameoftheforest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LIGHTNING CLOUD (nap) won with something in hand off this mark at Ascot on Friday and escapes a penalty as that was an apprentice race. Previously a winner over C&D in May, he is still improving and has plenty going for him, albeit against older rivals this time. Big Noise may be next best.[Mel Cullinan]

11/10 - - - -6/1 price gapper here in this handicap

350 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Auld Burns, 9/4 Fanny May, 10/1 Bussa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AULD BURNS won a valuable valuable 1m2f sales race at Newmarket in April and ran well enough in similar contest on July Course last time to take all the beating in this much lesser contest. Though Auld Burns can hit a flat spot and wouldn't be suited if this became tactical, Richard Hughes will be aware of that possibility. Fanny May probably has a bit more to do than adjusted handicap ratings may suggest but is still entitled to respect, provided her unproven stamina holds out.[Mel Cullinan]

2 under 12/1 and not even Monty Burns onboard Auld Burns should stop him from placing.

425 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Laatafreet, 7/4 Polperro, 10/1 Qahriman, 11/1 Ecossaise, 20/1 Knowe Head, 33/1 Miracle Play, 40/1 Price Of Retrieval, 50/1 Lechlade Lass, 66/1 Ballina Blue, 66/1 Misefi, 100/1 Patricias Pride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAATAFREET and Polperro have already shown well above average promise and stand out. Laatrafreet's debut run on the AW last October came in a race which has produced winners and, assuming he is at least as good on this belated return, his form looks a touch stronger than that of his main rival.[Mel Cullinan]

we had a similar race to this yesterday where the front 2 dominated, and Frankie and Godolphin had a runner.

274 day absence for the Frankie horse though defaults me to Polperro with a recent run.

645 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Maybe, 5/1 Somasach, 10/1 La Collina, 12/1 Gooseberry Fool, 12/1 Maid To Master, 33/1 Miss Dylan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAYBE is an exceptional prospect and she can be expected to maintain her unbeaten record in this and go on to win in Group 1 company later in the season. La Collina may be the best option for the forecast. [Kevin Blake]

1/3 - - - 8/1 - the next ballydoyle super star?

720 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sunset Beauty, 5/1 Kate Greenaway, 8/1 One Of Three, 10/1 Constant Charmer, 12/1Beauthea, 16/1 Hill Of Content, 20/1 Gist, 25/1 Karjera, 25/1 Smoky Cloud, 50/1 Apple Blossom Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUNSET BEAUTY has been very well placed in this and is very difficult to oppose. Kate Greenaway comes out well at these weights and represents the biggest danger to the selection. [Kevin Blake]

4/7 - - - -5/1 price gapper for Bolger/Manning


SHORTLIST

1230pm - Etoile v Balestier Khalsa - 1.21 home - an inability for balastier to score in their last 5 aways should make Etoile's job a little easier. Remember they have played 3 games less than their contemporaries and are still 5th. A little disconcerting that Armed Forces lost 1-0 last time I put up a Singapore league fixture.

430pm - P-Iirot v MuSA - 1.17 home -even though it is not in running now, the form looks compelling for P-irlot even at 1.12. The market is very poor indeed though
530pm - UE Sant Julia v Bnei Yehuda - 1.18 away - Bnei not one of the famous Israeli teams but must have performed well to appear in the Europa League. Should have too much surely for an Andorran outfit.

6pm - Anorthosis v Gagra - 1.11 home. - didn't Anorthosis do well ( to paraphrase Sir Brucey Bonus) in Europe last year? Very short and a feeling amongst the bookies that this Georgian league is weak? Now the price has upped to 1.15


730pm - Juvenes-Dogana v Rabotnicki - 1.18 away - another match betfair has taken off the in play coupon and a jump in odds to 1.26 but only because the market is so illiquid that layers are putting up daft prices and there is no market forces

745pm - Crusaders v Fulham - 1.21 away - complacency and a lack of match practice should be the only factors preventing a Fulham win this evening. An opportunity to put the tie to bed away from home. Northern Irish football is uncompetitive and Crusaders should surely find a first team from Fulham too much.

700 DONCASTER - now a 3 horse race for 2 places. And the outsider remains. Pimpernel surely the value to place albeit in a ridiculously illiquid market at present ( given race time)

With competition halved, A back of Stonefield flyer to win can be entertained?

535 KILLARNEY - Maller tree to place in a race where 5 are under 14/1? I shall be at Killarney this afternoon so hope he can place!

240 LEICESTER - Lightning Cloud is 1.3 to place and the only horse in the place only market at under evens. I am always slightly concerned with price gapper in handicaps , as handicaps by their very nature should be competitive

350 LEICESTER - if Bussa runs as the outsider, then this is a 2 horse race for 2 places so Fanny May to place the option, as long as Freddie Mac is not onboard.
We'll be getting 1.15 or thereabouts. 3 horses , 2 places and a 10/1 outsider

425 LEICESTER - Laatafreet v Polperro - I would opt for Polperro to place at 1.19 as Laatafreet has a 274th day absence.

645 LEOPARDSTOWN - Maybe is 1.09 to place currently which , for a horse of this stature, is a good price. A potential Ballydoyle hot pot , 1.36 to win might be worth entertaining. 1/3 - - - -12/1 price gapper.

720 LEOPARDSTOWN - Sunset Beauty to place at 1.11 has a good shout for the superb BOlger/Manning partnership

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230pm - Etoile v Balestier Khalsa - 1.21 home - dominant in head to heads, recently beat top side 2-0 at home, playing an away side who have scored 1 goal in 7 and suffered 5 consecutive losses without scoring. 3 of 4 though were 1-0 so I might entertain a 0-0 cover if Balastier bring their tight game.

430pm - P-Iirot v MuSA - 1.17 home - 1.12 currently and probably better to bet with the bookies as betfairians cannot be arsed it would seem. Judging by the form, this should be a routine home win - 1.14 with Ladbrokes.

6pm - Anorthosis v Gagra - 1.11 home. - home advantage in this first leg and a comfortable win expected for Anorthosis

745pm - Crusaders v Fulham - 1.21 away - so where will a surprise come from? Northern Irish football is a gulf away from the Premiership. 2 pipe openers recently for Fulham in previous Europa League home and away v Faroes opposition and an expectation for Fulham to put this tie to bed this evening.

700 DONCASTER - 3 horses , 2 places and currently 40/1 outsider - surely Pimpernel therefore to place? Betfair SP as illiquid market currently.

350 LEICESTER - again 3 horses , 2 places and a 18/1 outsider. Fanny May the value therefore

425 LEICESTER - Polperro preferred simply because Godolphin and Frankie horse Laatafreet has 274 day absence to overcome.

645 LEOPARDSTOWN - Maybe maybe the new ballydoyle star - 1.09 or thereabouts to place offers the insurance of a 2nd place for most likely winner.





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